The Surviving Formats of the Future

[JohnRadioFan]

I think it's becoming obvious that the radio landscape will change dramtically over the next decade because of satellite radio. Currently, is there a specific demographic that has embraced this technology in a big way? I'm thinking young males would be among the early takers especially given all the Howard Stern noise. Does Arbitron report any information to stations that they share audience with a sateliite station?
I'm thinking that talk, news and sports should be in a good position. Hate to sterotype but I'm just trying to think things through- talk show lovers tend to be conservative and by nature will not be easily swayed in spending money when they can get what they like - free. On the flip side, I'm also thinking that urban formats should continue to do well in the future too. With a core audience in the inner cities, would many listeners have the disposable income to invest in satellite services? Time will tell.
It would seem commercial radio would become even more specialized with formats such as more spanish language and gospel. I also wonder if simulcasting would be permitted once again for company owned AM and FM stations in the same market. It would seem as audience keeps dropping, something would need to be done and this move could help the bottom line.
Adult contemporary and country, I would think, should still fare well in the future. I think the biggest impacts would actually be among rock stations. Perhaps oldies stations would fare well in the future too if older demographics don't subscribe to satellite. It may be ironic but perhaps the audience that so many stations seem to go after would be the first to leave for something else. I'm curious to see what y'all think about all of this speculation. Do you think we are already seeing radio decisions in Jax in anticipation of increased sateliite radio popularity?

 

[preferprivacy]

I belive Arbitron will begin including satellite listening,
but only if a SPECIFIC CHANNEL reaches the threshhold (is that still
one-tenth of one-percent of 12+?).

Also consider that HD will DOUBLE the amount of free
FM channels listeners receive when fully implemented.

In the case of Jacksonville, figure another 10 "channels" available.

I don't know if anyone has realistic plan yet for what to do with the extra outlets, but clearly more fragmentation is in the future.

That will make the few surviving big CUME stations more valuable, but force buyers to consider more than just the top-5 A25-54 stations.









> I think it's becoming obvious that the radio landscape will
> change dramtically over the next decade because of satellite
> radio. Currently, is there a specific demographic that has
> embraced this technology in a big way? I'm thinking young
> males would be among the early takers especially given all
> the Howard Stern noise. Does Arbitron report any information
> to stations that they share audience with a sateliite
> station?
> I'm thinking that talk, news and sports should be in a good
> position. Hate to sterotype but I'm just trying to think
> things through- talk show lovers tend to be conservative and
> by nature will not be easily swayed in spending money when
> they can get what they like - free. On the flip side, I'm
> also thinking that urban formats should continue to do well
> in the future too. With a core audience in the inner cities,
> would many listeners have the disposable income to invest in
> satellite services? Time will tell.
> It would seem commercial radio would become even more
> specialized with formats such as more spanish language and
> gospel. I also wonder if simulcasting would be permitted
> once again for company owned AM and FM stations in the same
> market. It would seem as audience keeps dropping, something
> would need to be done and this move could help the bottom
> line.
> Adult contemporary and country, I would think, should still
> fare well in the future. I think the biggest impacts would
> actually be among rock stations. Perhaps oldies stations
> would fare well in the future too if older demographics
> don't subscribe to satellite. It may be ironic but perhaps
> the audience that so many stations seem to go after would be
> the first to leave for something else. I'm curious to see
> what y'all think about all of this speculation. Do you think
> we are already seeing radio decisions in Jax in anticipation
> of increased sateliite radio popularity?
>

 

[noyfb]

John: Interesting post, but flawed in several ways. Satellite's not as big a threat to radio as losing 12-34 year olds listening to music on computers and portables. Radio used to be the place to hear new music first. Where do new acts break out today? TV (American Idol) or the Internet. Sat listeners fall into three groups. Early adopters, Sternies and radio haters. Early adopters have to get the latest gadgets. Sternies are hard core loyalists (not just Howard's fans) signing up to get pro sports, specialized talk or music genres that won't make a profit on radio. Radio haters want variety. They're the ultimate button pushers. The mega-coverage Stern got for his satellite debut makes it look like everyone's making the switch. Stern and Sirius did an awesome PR job. I've seen the numbers both in Jacksonville and nationally and satellite listening is at the bottom of the heap. Satcasters will grow but not to the point that radio will be changed permanently. Talk show listeners do not tend to be conservative. Media Audit ratings show NPR stations do quite well (especially with upper income folks) in most markets around the country. Even though Arbitron doesn't publish ratings for non-commercial stations, they still estimate listening. If WJCT were included, Arbitron would give them around a 5 share in Jacksonville. You're right in saying commerical radio will get more specialized. Just not the way you think. HD radio means lots more choice for listeners much like satellite can offer. Example: Station WXXX is plays country music. When you tack on 3 more signals with HD radio, that station can offer classic country, bluegrass and young country as well. Station WYYY plays oldies. Now they can offer 60's, 70's 80's and 90's all on separate channels via HD. Simulcasting is OK with the FCC as things stand right now, that's an old rule you're thinking of. Radio has three big issues to confront. First, getting HD recievers onto the market and into vehicles. Second, radio needs to make itself a must-tune medium again with 12-34's. Third, the industry had better wake up to the fact that Americans are getting older. That means more stations/formats targeted at people over 45. The days of 25-54 being the money demo are coming to a close, if they haven't already. The first of the Baby Boomers, the country's biggest demo, just turned 60.