Hey everyone,
Great discussion. Keep it up! My $.02, with a little background.
I'm a professional meteorologist by trade. I've been in broadcasting,
and also developed and carried out our severe weather alert system here at Northern Illinois University. We've been lauded for it, so I hope this carries some weight in what I am about to say.
First, the Storm Prediction Center had the entire Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex in a MODERATE risk of severe thunderstorms this past Friday, for the possibility of "strong" tornadoes. This outlook was issued at 2 AM on Thursday central Time, and reissued at 12:30 PM or so that afternoon, tweaking the area and highlighting the danger to the metroplex, something they don't do unless they're confident something could happen.
Next, the local National Weather Service office issues a Hazardous Weather Outlook, and updates it at least twice a day. This focuses on the threats in the local area. They are sent on the major news wires. All the radio stations should have gotten it. Here's a copy:
FLUS44 KFWD 122044
HWOFWD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CDT THU APR 12 2007
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
345 PM CDT THU APR 12 2007
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTHWEST OF
COMANCHE...MINERAL WELLS...DECATUR...GAINESVILLE LINE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GATHERS STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY AFFECT AREAS AS
FAR SOUTHEAST AS A SHERMAN...DENTON...DALLAS-FORT WORTH...
STEPHENVILLE LINE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION MAY BE
SETTING UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE NORTH ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST VERTICAL WIND PROFILE...WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THIS BOUNDARY.
ELSEWHERE...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE DRY-LINE AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA.
PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A
GOLDTHWAITE...MERIDIAN...EMORY LINE.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's what the Storm Prediction Center had to say about it:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2007/day2otlk_20070412_1730.html
If you are in the "blue hatched area of doom", take a hint: If you claim to be the news leader or whatever...or want to be...make sure you are staffed with the people who can "get the job done" when this happens. Obviously, from the forecasts above clearly indicated, you had 24 hours of warning that a major event could happen. Sometimes they don't pan out---it's the nature of weather forecasting. But the tools we have these days gives us a lot better confidence of what will happen through tomorrow in a general sense than even just 10 years ago.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ has the day 1, day 2, day 3, and 4-8 day severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/ has the Dallas/Fort Worth localized hazardous weather outlook.
And then, if you really want to school everyone, get GRLevel3:
http://www.grlevelx.com
One of the best radar and warning display software tools I have ever seen, for $80.
Shows storm tracks, how big the hail is, you can zoom in and loop 100 ways to Sunday.
It's on my computer, and I am a proud user of their sister GR2 software, with more of a meteorologist data slant to it.
OK, I am typing this at 7:15 PM Monday. April 16. What is SPC calling for on Tuesday?
Current day 2 outlook is here:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
If you read this after 1 AM Tuesday, click here:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
What? Supercells to the DFW area tomorrow per the day 2?
That had better be a MORNING meeting at your radio stations
tomorrow, gang...
And BTW, as a backup, get a NOAA All-Hazards radio. You have great coverage down there:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr
And Amazon dot com has the Midland WR-100B (we have 50 of them here) on sale for $30. They work great, I highly recommend them. We bank our lives on them during tornado warnings; they're in standby mode all the time. At home, it should be like a smoke detector--have one where you can hear it at all times if in the house.
P.S. Caught the WFAA-TV/DT online broadcast and watched the radar on GRLevel2
in real-time. They did a GREAT job! Can't speak for anyone else, that's all I could get.
Food for thought...enjoy your severe weather tomorrow.
