Trend II: The Real Story

[djdan]

I am laughing so hard, I am crying. After a week out of town at a rep conference I knew I was in for a treat when the Seattle trends come out. The amount of heat generated by a single trend by this board is always good for a smile, no matter what the market.

The real story: Winners for the extrap month of May 25-54:
#1 KMPS
#2 KISW
#3 KPLZ
#4 KZOK
#5 KKWF

KQMV, KRWM, KBKS, KNDD all had a very poor month. For KBKS and KNDD it has been several months of decline and the Adam Corolla show's odd spike a trend or two ago has disappeared, so has KJR-FM's. Adam's show ranks 18th now.

KMPS and KPLZ showed strong rebounds, but KKWF remains a player, without question. In reality, you can pull up a post of mine from a year or two ago and despite a weird trend or two not much has changed. Top female demo stations are KRWM, KPLZ, KMPS. Top male stations are KZOK and KISW. Adult stations are KZOK, KMPS, KRWM. KUBE has 18-34.

That's the real story.

 

[djdan]

My favorite laughs on this board by the way:

1. The discussion about May's numbers and how KBSG's 80's songs are helping them. 80's weren't played until June and the new PD just arrived.

2. Someone asking for Mamma's opinion on KQMV's bad month. What do you think she would say? Priceless.

3. Mamma accusing just about everyone on this board, including me, of being KPLZ's PD, while everyone else accuses Mamma of being MOVIN's old PD. Maybe just two people are really all that post here and spend all day doing it.

4. The turnaround in opinion on KMPS and KPLZ, when just one trend ago these stations and air-staff's were supposedly finished and dying.

5. Someone blasting people from outside of the market for posting on a Seattle board. Seems to me these outside posts are more balanced than those from inside the market.

See you next month, when the trends come out and everyone changes their minds again. Good fun.

 

[TakeItFromMe]

Funny post cowboy dan!!!!!!! I'll admit I am a fan of WOLF compared to KMPS and this cowboy was a bit shocked when the numbers came out this Friday. So rather than keep pontificatin about the greatestness of the station I like, I truly want to know what others think about the big story of this trend. Who will win the Country war in Seattle between KMPS/WOLF and why? saddle up and post.

 

[LITTLEBOYBLUE]

I'm not sure anyone will "win" the country thing ... unless you handicap that younger demo's are the win because more buyers care.

An EXTREMELY over-simplified comparison to the way I view it is KIXI vs. KJR in the old AM battles. Both played music...but KIXI was the "turn to" station for the upper age crowd; KJR the "turn to" station for the younger crowd. My perception is Wolf is targeting the younger part of 25-54 and will probably be effective in attracting them. KMPS is less "in your face" presentation and a little slower pace overall, so that + Ichabod is probably going to retain their traditional upper demo. Let's say they split the audience...which at one point was around a 9-10 share. Each walks away with a 4.5-5.0 -- not THAT far off where they are settling right now (though I'm referencing 12+ and in-demo could be a much different picture); and each still in a great position to kick some country butt on all the other 25-54's with those kinds of numbers.

To me the bigger battle to watch is KIRO vs. KOMO ... will KIRO under new leadership aggressively pursue their old 10+share legacy, or will they be focused on simply regaining ground they lost and also wind up in some kind of "we split the audience" game.

Interesting to me that in LA even the legacy news/talk stations are coughing it up not because the audience left them, but because they are fixing things that weren't broken and are similarly destroying some big news/talk numbers that CBS once had.

 

[whoisthatguyanyway]

Those KBKS and KNDD numbers are fun to watch. While everyone was looking somewhere else KBKS was being attacked for it's 18-34 share from KNDD. Anybody have those break-outs?

KMPS needs to do something drastic and they need to do it now. They have lost the momentum. If they continue as they are they will be a solid second place country station in a year.

It is a shame how far KIRO has fallen. I don't think I have seen such a drastic decline in a major market power house N/T like we have seen here.

 

[djdan]

18-34 for May:
#1 KKWF
#2 KISW
#3 KUBE

KNDD was Fifth with KQMV right behind. KBKS was 13th for the month.

Multi-book average
#1 KUBE
#2 KISW
#3 KKWF

These three pretty much are the top of the heap. In the Country battle KKWF easily wins 18-34, KMPS wins 35-64. 25-54 goes back and forth from trend to trend. Good battle.

 

[slickkicker]

KNDD is simply sad. Alternative has been a carcass for far too long. This station needs too implode.

 

[whoisthatguyanyway]

Top 5 in demo doesn't seem like a dead signal. 13th in demo would be a little more troublesome.

 

[dan_greenberg1500]

slickkicker i've got to agree with you about KNDD. The spike that Carola had appears to have been a fluke. Their afternoon show has done nothing. And then I read that their summer concert is being held in a parking lot? Forgive my ignorance, but is this an ideal place to hold their biggest concert? Could they not book a venue? I thought I read somewhere that they always had endfest at the Gorge.

 

[slickkicker]

My college station back in the early 80's sounded better than KNDD. I couldn't fathom an End jock having any kind of a meaningful conversation, on air, with a guy like Lou Reed or Ryan Adams. It wouldn't happen on my 900 watts!

Try KNRK in PDX. A little boring but not an embarrassment.

 

[whoisthatguyanyway]

Oh yeah, college radio in the 80's doing interviews with Lou Reed. Let the ratings roll in...


Why wouldn't you want your summer concert downtown? Non traditional venues seem to work for festivals.

 

[equalinercard]

Someone asked if KIRO will pursue their old 10+ share legacy. That is ancient history.

There is no talk station or news station in any competitive major market with double digit shares anymore. Those days are long gone.

And in Seattle, especially, those days will NEVER return.

By failing to do any marketing under Entercom for the past 3 years (and so far NO marketing under Bonneville) KIRO has allowed KOMO to become a real factor in the market. KOMO is not going away.

Plus there are now THREE conservative stations (KOL, KVI, KTTH) and one of the highest rated Air America stations in the country in KPTK.

And KUOW and KPLU combined have better drive time numbers than any station in Seattle.

Best-case scenario for KIRO is to get the Mariners back after next season and simulcast on FM. But even then, they can fantasize about a 5 share, not a 10 share. Worst-cast scenario, they lose the Seahawks to KJR AM & FM after this season (a real possibility). Then KIRO is really toast.

Bonneville bigwigs can sit in Salt Lake City and dream about a 10 share. But its just a dream.

 

[whoisthatguyanyway]

I don't think a 10 share is the goal but a top 2 finish 12+ and a number one 25-54 is still within reach for most major market N/T stations. They are really a non player. I can't think of any market where the big N/T isn't cleaning up at the very least in demo.

 

[TakeItFromMe]

This is a no brainer cowboys. Whoever gets the Mariners wins the battle. KIRO beats KOMO 6a-3p. In the last trend they stomped them. However KOMO beats KIRO 3p-12mid and weekends by a huge margin thanks to the Mariners. SO KOMO leads thanks to baseball. Entercom had planned to get the Mariners back and bury KOMO once and for all. Mr Fields was angry and would have spent anything to get the M's back. Word on the street is that Bonneville is not inclined to get into a bidding war. You know KOMO will spend top dollar to keep em. That means a standoff on Am, with no station top ten in 25-54. COuntry continues to rule the roost. I wonder if KMPS will get into the bidding war for baseball in order to combat WOLF??? Now that would make things real stickyyyyy. Who says baseball has to stay on AM>?
DOn't KOMO have the M's for a couple of more years anyhow. Makes this thread kinda dull. Hah

 

[slickkicker]

By the way whoisit..Seattle has high school stations that sound better than The End. KNHC-FM probably has better numbers, particularly in King County.

And yes I've interviewed Lou Reed, on college radio, and it wasn't easy. The guy would be more apt to hang with a teen at Nathan Hale than suffer through No-Name or Laszlo.

Ratings are great. Credibility and respect are priceless.

 

[djdan]

Feel bad about KNDD. It used to be a button on my car radio, but was replaced by JACK last year. The AM battle will probably come down whomever has the Mariners, though KIRO is keeping it a game without them.
I think KOMO has the contract for at least two or three more years. By then the PPM will change the face of radio anyway. I wonder if sports will continue to get the ratings with the PPM?

 

[whoisthatguyanyway]

Slick- I'm sure The End is looking for ratings and not the credibility that you got in college. Top 5 in demo isn't bad.

I would love to see morning numbers between KOMO and KIRO. Anyone?

 

[dan_greenberg1500]

Is it possible to be happy when your 5th in demo. the way I see it is that advertisers have 4 stations they would rather go to spend their money.

Djdan, you probably could answer this best. is management happy when your 5th in your own demo? I mean how many stations out their target young men? Let's say there is 5-7. That means you are either at the bottom of the pack or right near it.

 

[whoisthatguyanyway]

Maybe I read it wrong. I thought they were 5th persons. I would assume they would be higher 18-34 M. If I remember correctly they don't break down Men and Women in the trends but things could have changed since I used to see them.

 

[Shark]

Is it possible to be happy when your 5th in demo. the way I see it is that advertisers have 4 stations they would rather go to spend their money.

Djdan, you probably could answer this best. is management happy when your 5th in your own demo? I mean how many stations out their target young men? Let's say there is 5-7. That means you are either at the bottom of the pack or right near it.

It depends on the demo. A station that's 5th in Adults 18-49 or 25-54 is going to be in much better shape than a station that's 5th in teens, Adults 18-34 or 35-64. They don't call them the "money demos" for nothing.