Trend Out and MOVIN BEATS KISS AGAIN

[mammaknowsbest]

MAMMAKNOWSBEST! Movin jumps to number three 18-34 driven by my girl Monti in afternoons and strong nights. Ya ya ya.
KISS is outa the top five again. Only KUBe and StAr are ahead of MOVIN 18-34 in November and with monti goin to mornings expect even more growth.
Y'all make fun of mamma, but guess who really knows best. Lotsa smiles at Sandusky as Jazz is number one 25-54 for the month too.

Mamma is a happy girl. Merry Christmas all.

 

[djdan]

For the record. Your winners 25-54 (prime dayparts) for November, in no particular order:
KWJZ
KZOK
KIRO
KMPS
KKWF
KRWM
KPLZ
KJAQ
KISW
KCMS

Morning Winners 25-54, in no particular order:
KZOK
KMPS
KIRO
KPLZ
KRWM


Top stations 18-34 were, in fact, KUBE, KPLZ and KQMV.

These numbers, again, are for one month only so it doesn't mean a whole bunch. Notice KMTT, the number one station in summer 25-54, isn't even in the top ten for November. KQMV was not even top ten 18-34 just one month ago. Always better to stick with a four-book, or at least a two book before getting too excited.

 

[majoradio]

Fall Phase TWO

..and what's THIS??

-- KIRO and KOMO 'TIED'...in a dead heat?? --

..melt my muffins!

 

[radioplayer]

MAMMAKNOWSBEST! Movin jumps to number three 18-34 driven by my girl Monti in afternoons and strong nights. Ya ya ya.

Y'all make fun of mamma, but guess who really knows best. Lotsa smiles at Sandusky as Jazz is number one 25-54 for the month too.

Ya Ya Ya....and King Marc sends out Pink Slips to the AM show this month, just in time before the New Year! I bet your morning show friends are just lovin' it too....

A month of superficial numbers is exactly that. If KQMV was doing that great, they would be sticking to their formula, not dropping talent and looking at serious tweaking in this "format" right now.....

 

[oldbossjock]

DJ Dan...since it's hard to tell what you're listing (other than 25-54 women in morning) specifically, here are the full week trend ranks for 18-34 and 25-54. These are the 3 month rolling average rankings, not the extrap one month.

18-34
1.KUBE
2.KISS
3.KISW
4.KMPS
5.MOVIN
6.THE END
7.STAR
8.WOLF
9.KCMS
10.JACK

25-54
1.KMPS
2.KZOK
3.KISW
4.WARM
5.KWJZ
6.WOLF
7.JACK
8.MOUNTAIN
9.KCMS
10.KJR-FM
11.KIRO
12.STAR
13.KUBE
14.KJR-AM
15.MOVIN
16.KOMO
17.THE END
18.KISS
19.KBSG
20.KING FM

Kiss is about to lose a huge 18-34 month. Interestingly,extrapolated, Movin has only beaten 18-34 Kiss 1 in the last 4 months, this month.

 

[djdan]

I always list the extrap month by itself so the month can be seen in a pure form, without the past two months affecting it. Prime demo means prime sales demo: 6a-7p Mon-Fri. This way you can see the single month effect of something like Christmas music or an election, or just an arbitron aberation. In November KUBE was number one 18-34, followed by STAR and KQMV. I think that is what the original post about MOVIN refered to. If you add in nights it was still KUBE with around a 20 share, STAR with around a 10 share in the top two positions. KISW was next with around a six share. KQMV and KBKS were not top five at night. I also keep numbers vague so I don't violate arbitron rules. I do strive to be accurate, since there is so much misinformation or misunderstanding on this board. I actually find humor in some of the extrap postings.

To be fair in 18-34 adults extraps: KQMV beat KBKS in July, August and November and in October they were virtually tied. KBKS only beat them in September. Averaged over the last 11 months of 2007 KQMV beats KISS 18-34, but neither is in the top three for the year. I don't think either station has much to gloat about, since they are not a top three buy in their prime demographic. 25-54 both stations are well below the top ten. I am a bit perplexed by STAR's rise in this demographic over the last couple of trends. They have been growing solidly this year in 25-54 women since they made some music changes in late winter. That makes sense. I see STAR as the soccer mom's station. I do not see them as having any appeal to an 18-34 year old.

 

[Mamaknowsbreast]

oldboss and djdan,

these numbers just confirm the fact that the End is still in real trouble. I mean when you're #6 in your key demo, you've got problems, don't you?

 

[radioprofessor]

The END is clearly a non-factor in any demographic you chose. I may be able to shed some light on the ratings discussion having been on the arbitron advisory board years ago. The data posted by oldboss is 6a-12mid rolling trends. These are highly inaccurate unwieghted and do not reflect the actual month's performance Djdan is providing November extraps which provide the most recent data but he excludes weekends and nights. This is common among agency buys but does not reflect the market and he does not list stations rank in order. Arbitron does not allow publishing non-12+ data and stations and personel can be subject to suspension for releasing this material. Let me clarify the numbers a bit. For November 6a-12mid your top 25-54 adults stations were KZOK, KWJZ. In men 25-54 it was KZOK, KISW and in women 25-54 KRWM and KPLZ. 18-34 it was KUBE and KPLZ. Again order may or may not be correct, but you have your top stations. The rest makes little difference in a rolling trend or extrap. The book is what counts.

On to the trouble with the 18-34 demo. Here is a reprint of my earlier analysis on this subject:

I think I may be able to speak with some authority in this matter. I have been involved in multiple perceptual research studies in multiple major markets and am well aware of the situation in Seattle.


Third: Change
Change rarely happens when something is going well. There has been a massive shift 18-34 in this market in the last three months causing ripple effects. In summer, when I first began doing my initial analysis of the market KUBE, WOLF, KISW, MOVIN were the top 18-34 stations on a two book. Since that time WOLF has undergone a series of internal changes and has dropped to 8th in the recent trend. KBKS has gone with a new programming philosophy that is still moving forward and has yet to see results. KQMV after four months of poor performance has revamped its music a bit and adjusted its personality lineup. This confusion among 18-34 players has allowed KUBE to expand its lead and allowed out of demo stations; particularly STAR with its unorthodox music approach (play everything from T-land to Nickelback to Rascal Flatts) to jump to number two.

In 2008 I can say with some confidence that KQMV or KBKS will stand at the end of the day to challenge KUBE and KISW. It will be Monti against Jackie, the highest testing personalities in the young format arena and I have it on good authority that both are women. (that was a programmer joke) They are clearly women with different styles and will battle to take on T-Man.

 

[oldbossjock]

Prof...how do you extrap 25-54 men or women in a trend? They aren't available in ARBITRENDS. 12+P 18-34P, 25-54P, 18+M, 18+W, 35-65P, 35+P and teens, if I can remember ARBITRENDS off the top of my head, are the only demos available

 

[radioprofessor]

Arbitrends, offered by arbitron, only provide general demos. There are other programs that can be purchased that will extrap the additional information. These programs are not endorsed by arbitron but provide valuable information to programmers and media buyers. I use a couple of these to give me a better understanding of the trends beyond the rolling average. It is a pretty complex data set that takes the 18-34, 25-54, 35-64 adult number against your overall 18+ male/female split and then mathmatically calculates the cume, share, TSL based on the overall adult percentage in each demo. Not completely accurate, but pretty close. For example if your 18+ split is 4 share men and 1 share women you can with some accuracy put a male/female split to your 18-34 adult number, especially if 2/3 of your total audience is 18-34. The programs do the analysis for you. Those who provide this data on this board are either working for an agency or consult multiple stations because the more sophisticated programs are not cheap. My caution when quoting this kind of information is that it is reliant on cume for accuracy. Lower cume stations are less reliable when looking at a single month in demos. This is why arbitron does not release the information. I have it on good authority that the two major chains in this market subscribe to this data set so do the Clear Channel rep firms.