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Trend Talk
- Thread starter salami
- Start date
> Trends are like hourly stock reports, like quarterly
> earnings statements. Good news or bad, they're meaningless
> estimates from a company that demonstrably can't even get
> their 90-day official Book right. Hold that champagne. Or
> that noose.
>
Yep, they're real meaningless....lets see, three trends make up a book. This trend is added to the last two trends of the Spring Book. Therefore the first trend from the Spring Book is dropped. There, I can teach too! Good for me!
Now can we please have a thread discussing the trend without having to be told again how useless they are? (It seems to come up everytime they're mentioned)
Or maybe I should stick with the current topics on the board and talk about how recent Dayton radio changes will effect the Socio-Economic climate in Paraguay.
> earnings statements. Good news or bad, they're meaningless
> estimates from a company that demonstrably can't even get
> their 90-day official Book right. Hold that champagne. Or
> that noose.
>
Yep, they're real meaningless....lets see, three trends make up a book. This trend is added to the last two trends of the Spring Book. Therefore the first trend from the Spring Book is dropped. There, I can teach too! Good for me!
Now can we please have a thread discussing the trend without having to be told again how useless they are? (It seems to come up everytime they're mentioned)
Or maybe I should stick with the current topics on the board and talk about how recent Dayton radio changes will effect the Socio-Economic climate in Paraguay.
Well, yes, every time a post claims that a Trend has significance, I'll probably post a reminder that it doesn't.
Trends don't even rely on "weighting," the dishonest trick that's used in the official Book. That makes them even farther from reality than the Book itself, which is based on already-too-small samples that consistently deal with many unreturned diaries, which weighting pretends to correct.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that these numbers don't cause radio employees to cheer or cry, or to experience promotions or firings, or that they don't result in significant changes in advertisers' buying habits. I'm just saying that the numbers in the Books themselves, except in very general ways over long periods of time, don't really tell us much about what listeners are doing. And Trends tell us even less.
Trends don't even rely on "weighting," the dishonest trick that's used in the official Book. That makes them even farther from reality than the Book itself, which is based on already-too-small samples that consistently deal with many unreturned diaries, which weighting pretends to correct.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that these numbers don't cause radio employees to cheer or cry, or to experience promotions or firings, or that they don't result in significant changes in advertisers' buying habits. I'm just saying that the numbers in the Books themselves, except in very general ways over long periods of time, don't really tell us much about what listeners are doing. And Trends tell us even less.
> Well, yes, every time a post claims that a Trend has
> significance, I'll probably post a reminder that it doesn't.
>
>
> Trends don't even rely on "weighting," the dishonest trick
> that's used in the official Book. That makes them even
> farther from reality than the Book itself, which is based on
> already-too-small samples that consistently deal with many
> unreturned diaries, which weighting pretends to correct.
>
> Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that these numbers don't
> cause radio employees to cheer or cry, or to experience
> promotions or firings, or that they don't result in
> significant changes in advertisers' buying habits. I'm just
> saying that the numbers in the Books themselves, except in
> very general ways over long periods of time, don't really
> tell us much about what listeners are doing. And Trends
> tell us even less.
>
Out of curiosity what is the sample size in the Cincinnati market?
I will say this WCKY is a waste of airspace. I blame Jesse Jackson and Nancy Zimpher.
> significance, I'll probably post a reminder that it doesn't.
>
>
> Trends don't even rely on "weighting," the dishonest trick
> that's used in the official Book. That makes them even
> farther from reality than the Book itself, which is based on
> already-too-small samples that consistently deal with many
> unreturned diaries, which weighting pretends to correct.
>
> Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that these numbers don't
> cause radio employees to cheer or cry, or to experience
> promotions or firings, or that they don't result in
> significant changes in advertisers' buying habits. I'm just
> saying that the numbers in the Books themselves, except in
> very general ways over long periods of time, don't really
> tell us much about what listeners are doing. And Trends
> tell us even less.
>
Out of curiosity what is the sample size in the Cincinnati market?
I will say this WCKY is a waste of airspace. I blame Jesse Jackson and Nancy Zimpher.
Once again......
3 Trends make up a book. Once you have the 3 trends you create what is called an average. Then you have your book. I'm not trying to be a wise guy here but obviously you have some beef with the ratings system. That's fine. But to sit here and deny their importance is inane. When the 3 trends are averaged for a complete book, whether or not it's important to you, or whether it's flawed or not, it's extremely important to the stations and even more so to it's advertisers.
I think you put it best when you said......
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that these numbers don't
> cause radio employees to cheer or cry, or to experience
> promotions or firings, or that they don't result in
> significant changes in advertisers' buying habits.
Wow! That sounds sort of important to me......
3 Trends make up a book. Once you have the 3 trends you create what is called an average. Then you have your book. I'm not trying to be a wise guy here but obviously you have some beef with the ratings system. That's fine. But to sit here and deny their importance is inane. When the 3 trends are averaged for a complete book, whether or not it's important to you, or whether it's flawed or not, it's extremely important to the stations and even more so to it's advertisers.
I think you put it best when you said......
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that these numbers don't
> cause radio employees to cheer or cry, or to experience
> promotions or firings, or that they don't result in
> significant changes in advertisers' buying habits.
Wow! That sounds sort of important to me......
> I'm sorry it has nothing to do with Dayton, but how 'bout
> those Cinci trends?
> Looks like WARM is falling fast. What's the deal there?
> B-105 is up to second overall and WYGY is down again. What's
> B doing that Y isn't? And boy, that WCKY talk is really
> taking off!
>
Country is trending up just about everywhere, it looks like the format is entering a boom cycle. As for why B-105 is the one that's going up. Marty's a great PD. The 11PM sample hours from Friday night are on Mediabase. WUBE was playing upbeat, fun party songs, perfect for a Friday night. Several other country stations across the U.S pay no attention to daypart, they were playing "funeral" songs like "Holes in the Floor of Heaven" on a Friday night. It's little things like this that add up and seperate the OK stations from the great ones.
AC is down just about everywhere. This is normal. Summer is usually the worst book for AC, Fall is normally the best, especially for the ones that go all-Christmas.
> those Cinci trends?
> Looks like WARM is falling fast. What's the deal there?
> B-105 is up to second overall and WYGY is down again. What's
> B doing that Y isn't? And boy, that WCKY talk is really
> taking off!
>
Country is trending up just about everywhere, it looks like the format is entering a boom cycle. As for why B-105 is the one that's going up. Marty's a great PD. The 11PM sample hours from Friday night are on Mediabase. WUBE was playing upbeat, fun party songs, perfect for a Friday night. Several other country stations across the U.S pay no attention to daypart, they were playing "funeral" songs like "Holes in the Floor of Heaven" on a Friday night. It's little things like this that add up and seperate the OK stations from the great ones.
AC is down just about everywhere. This is normal. Summer is usually the worst book for AC, Fall is normally the best, especially for the ones that go all-Christmas.
> > Trends are like hourly stock reports, like quarterly
> > earnings statements. Good news or bad, they're
> meaningless
> > estimates from a company that demonstrably can't even get
> > their 90-day official Book right. Hold that champagne.
> Or
> > that noose.
> >
> Yep, they're real meaningless....lets see, three trends make
> up a book. This trend is added to the last two trends of the
> Spring Book. Therefore the first trend from the Spring Book
> is dropped. There, I can teach too! Good for me!
> Now can we please have a thread discussing the trend without
> having to be told again how useless they are? (It seems to
> come up everytime they're mentioned)
> Or maybe I should stick with the current topics on the board
> and talk about how recent Dayton radio changes will effect
> the Socio-Economic climate in Paraguay.
>
I agree. Criticizing Arbitron takes away all the fun of boards like this. Another fun-crusher is the ever popular "12+ means nothing" (of course it means nothing, but you usually can still get a general idea of who's trending up and down).
Qcityguy was civilized, articulate, and reasonable in his opinions, so I'm not directing this at him in particular. But I agree with you Salami. I always check out the trends and am rarely surprised at what stations have good or bad books. If a station has great trends and a poor book (or bad trends and a good book), it's usually a case where the third leg of the book is significantly better or worse than the month that fell off. This is more of a factor than weighting. But in more cases than not the trends give you a good feel for how the book will be.
> > earnings statements. Good news or bad, they're
> meaningless
> > estimates from a company that demonstrably can't even get
> > their 90-day official Book right. Hold that champagne.
> Or
> > that noose.
> >
> Yep, they're real meaningless....lets see, three trends make
> up a book. This trend is added to the last two trends of the
> Spring Book. Therefore the first trend from the Spring Book
> is dropped. There, I can teach too! Good for me!
> Now can we please have a thread discussing the trend without
> having to be told again how useless they are? (It seems to
> come up everytime they're mentioned)
> Or maybe I should stick with the current topics on the board
> and talk about how recent Dayton radio changes will effect
> the Socio-Economic climate in Paraguay.
>
I agree. Criticizing Arbitron takes away all the fun of boards like this. Another fun-crusher is the ever popular "12+ means nothing" (of course it means nothing, but you usually can still get a general idea of who's trending up and down).
Qcityguy was civilized, articulate, and reasonable in his opinions, so I'm not directing this at him in particular. But I agree with you Salami. I always check out the trends and am rarely surprised at what stations have good or bad books. If a station has great trends and a poor book (or bad trends and a good book), it's usually a case where the third leg of the book is significantly better or worse than the month that fell off. This is more of a factor than weighting. But in more cases than not the trends give you a good feel for how the book will be.
- Status
- This thread has been closed due to inactivity. You can create a new thread to discuss this topic.