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Trend The Real Story

D

djdan

Before iknowitall jumps on the Board claiming victory for his
ratings predictions and the change mid-days at KIRO. Wait!
Word from KIRO is that Dave Ross is going back 9-12n and News goes
back in the afternoon. The top brass say go back to what was working.
Don't count on Rush to fill the mid-day spot.

As for the trends. Just a trend folks, but in the 25-54 sales demo
JACK, now second in the market. Very strong for KOMO now easily beating
KIRO, strong for KJR-FM too. KMPS looked good as usual.

Media buyers will wait until winter to put any real dollars on JACK.
Will this version of JACK be one that lasts only 3-6 months or is it a
version that will last a year before declining? That is the big question.

KBKS and KLSY do seem to be killing each other in a big way. There is
probably only room for one CHR or HOT/AC CHR. KUBE remains the clear
winner here.

Remember this is just the summer trend. Many media buyers throw
out the summer book. Will things go back to normal in Fall? iknowitall
may have it right, but for how long.
 
Ross back to mornings...YES!

>>>> Word from KIRO is that Dave Ross is going back 9-12n and News goes back in the afternoon....

LIKE I PREDICTED!....expect for Ventrella moving to afternoons...
I knew that 'Tony move' was a long-shot...
 
> Before iknowitall jumps on the Board claiming victory for
> his
> ratings predictions and the change mid-days at KIRO. Wait!
> Word from KIRO is that Dave Ross is going back 9-12n and
> News goes
> back in the afternoon. The top brass say go back to what was
> working.
> Don't count on Rush to fill the mid-day spot.

News is the best thing they can do in the afternoon. Won't cure everything, but it should stop the full-throttle ratings hemorrhaging.


> As for the trends. Just a trend folks, but in the 25-54
> sales demo
> JACK, now second in the market. Very strong for KOMO now
> easily beating
> KIRO, strong for KJR-FM too. KMPS looked good as usual.

Not too many surprises there.


> Media buyers will wait until winter to put any real dollars
> on JACK.
> Will this version of JACK be one that lasts only 3-6 months
> or is it a
> version that will last a year before declining? That is the
> big question.

You really need about 12-18 months to see if Jack is the real thing, precisely because what Seattle did....dumping a million bucks into TV.

Dan, do you guys take note of things like the steady decline in Dallas, the not-catching-on thing in New York and the success in LA?


> KBKS and KLSY do seem to be killing each other in a big way.
> There is
> probably only room for one CHR or HOT/AC CHR. KUBE remains
> the clear
> winner here.

My money is on KBKS. You've got an experienced and battle-tested programmer at Kiss, and a guy at KLSY who is barely qualified to program tunes for a music-on-hold system at an OB/GYN clinic.


> Remember this is just the summer trend. Many media buyers
> throw
> out the summer book. Will things go back to normal in Fall?
> iknowitall
> may have it right, but for how long.

Jack will probably climb a little further...their moment of reckoning will be in the Summer or Fall 2006 book. Few people trust their numbers.
 
> > Before iknowitall jumps on the Board claiming victory for
> > his
> > ratings predictions and the change mid-days at KIRO.
> Wait!
>

I am not jumping on the Board claiming Victory. Here
is how my predictions stand for the summer book:

KMPS Prediction Down: Currently down
KZOK Prediction DOwn: Currently down
KUBE Prediction Down: Currently down
KOMO Prediction Down: Currently down
KNDD Prediction Up: Currently up
KJAQ: Predition Up: Currently way up
KWJZ: Prediction Up: Currently up
KVI: Prediction Down: Currently down

With one trend left I am off on two stations KIRO and KBKS.
KIRO remains down, but had a strong last month and may come
back. I predicted KBKS would be up and barring a miracle
KLSY will have knocked out KBKS. I do feel KBKS will be the
eventual winner, but that means I have lost the bet by only
getting 9-10 predictions correct. Both stations KBKS and KLSY
are killing each other. KLSY will not have a great book, but
they have dragged KBKS down. I thought KBKS would be stronger
and apologize if I led anyone astray. 9-10 is unacceptable!
Should this hold up, I will keep my end of the bargain and stop
posting on this site.

PEACE OUT
>
 
Ah, c'mon iknowitall, even if you are actually iknowninetypercentofitall the posts are fun. You would be missed around here (of course, I miss danadee too), and anyone who takes this seriously should probably see a shrink. As for my rates, the cost of JACK advertising on television should be sufficient.

I still am impressed with your call of K-Rock turning to JACK, not that it happened, but that it happened so fast and right when it seemed Andy Savage was getting his act together. Any word on if Savage is going to show up locally? Does he have to be off air locally until his K-Rock contract expires? There has not been an updated posting on his site in over a month. Perhaps a better question is whether there is ample interest in keeping him on the air.

Loosen up and have some fun, iknowitall. Peace to you too.

> 9-10 is unacceptable!
> Should this hold up, I will keep my end of the bargain and
> stop
> posting on this site.
>
> PEACE OUT
> >
>
 
>
> With one trend left I am off on two stations KIRO and KBKS.
> KIRO remains down, but had a strong last month and may come
>
> back.

not a strong month, a dead cat bounce off the bottom
 
Re: Short-Term Formats

One thing that keeps going through my mind when reading posts about the "inevitable demise of JACK" is that perspective is coming from the programming orientation. There are MANY businesses who will open their doors for a few months and happy to accept any customers and cash who come their way; even though they may not expect to have the doors open at the conclusion of their three year lease.

In other words ... even if JACK doesn't stay on (and/or affect) the competitive landscape three years from now, doesn't necessarily mean it's a bad decision to blow up questionable formats and get whatever they can during the time when the fad IS working. Jammin' Oldies didn't last forever ... but while it was hot it made a LITTLE bit of money!! (Dan, of course, will point out that this isn't a great long-term strategy for stations who sell averages to national advertisers -- but they aren't the ONLY businesses out there with a checkbook or else these formats would be wall-to-wall music with NO stopsets).

The only area where I would question is New York -- think jury is still out on whether they should have blown up heritage station to launch this format. LA/Infinity was much smarter by putting it on CBS-FM there (leaving KRTH intact) since that station was having SOME trouble finding its future.


To that extent, Steve Van Zandt made an outstanding presentation to the Jacobs Media customers about the line between the suits controlling all aspects of radio, and remembering that most people who MAKE rock & roll are artists and that the industry that presents that art also needs to have some appreciation for it that reaches beyond the spreadsheet observations. One way I interpret that is I applaud ANY station that's still willing to do a "silent segue" or two every hour with a couple tracks that lay very well together. Nice relief from the "gotta have a sweeper, liner, live jock" over every stinking element and a throwback to a respectful presentation of the underlying music product.
 
> > > Before iknowitall jumps on the Board claiming victory
> for
> > > his
> > > ratings predictions and the change mid-days at KIRO.
> > Wait!
> >
>
> I am not jumping on the Board claiming Victory. Here
> is how my predictions stand for the summer book:
>
> KMPS Prediction Down: Currently down
> KZOK Prediction DOwn: Currently down
> KUBE Prediction Down: Currently down
> KOMO Prediction Down: Currently down
> KNDD Prediction Up: Currently up
> KJAQ: Predition Up: Currently way up
> KWJZ: Prediction Up: Currently up
> KVI: Prediction Down: Currently down
>
> With one trend left I am off on two stations KIRO and KBKS.
> KIRO remains down, but had a strong last month and may come
>
> back. I predicted KBKS would be up and barring a miracle
> KLSY will have knocked out KBKS. I do feel KBKS will be the
>
> eventual winner, but that means I have lost the bet by only
> getting 9-10 predictions correct. Both stations KBKS and
> KLSY
> are killing each other. KLSY will not have a great book,
> but
> they have dragged KBKS down. I thought KBKS would be
> stronger
> and apologize if I led anyone astray. 9-10 is unacceptable!
>
> Should this hold up, I will keep my end of the bargain and
> stop
> posting on this site.
>
> PEACE OUT
> >
>


9 of 10 is impressive. I enjoy your predictions and hope you keep posting.
 
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