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Trend

What a kickin way to start 2007!!!!!!!! KJR-FM, WOLF, KCMS are the big stories of the trend. The battle between KMPS and WOLF is over, even in morning drive. Here were the top stations 25-54 in mornings where all counts partners!

KJR-FM
KUBE
KRWM
KZOK
KCMS
WOLF
KOMO
KPLZ
KIRO
KISW

WOLF buries KMPS. MOVIN seems to have slid off the map, which is kind of a surprise. T-Man, Kent and Alan and KCMS morning shows are moving up. Looks like Entercom dumped KIRO and KBSG at just the right time. KOMO killed KIRO in January and KJR-FM killed KBSG. What a year it will be!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
MOVIN seems to have gotten into trouble after their PD left in late Fall. Their numbers have been dropping ever since. Still think the format has legs and if Sandusky would get their act together and get the new talent on the air it still has a bright future. After a great launch a station can shoot itself in the foot. KJR-Fm is a fluke month, get real. KMPS is hurting, but KIRO was number one 12+ for the month, I don't know what you are inhaling TIFM, but to say KIRO and KBSG are over is stretching it. You beat KMPS, but rest of Entercom is bleeding. KNDD is dead, The Mountain had its worst month in years, they have messed up a good station. KISW is off a bit.The WOLF is really the only bright spot at Entercom. The only reason Kent and Alan are growing is they got a new PD to kick em in the butt. That was announced a month ago, some guy named Leonard who was a producer somewhere before taking the job. Another PD with no experience. KBKS is truly dead in the water. MOVIN kills them and KUBE is stronger than ever. My bet is KNDD and KBKS are ripe for format change. Don't count MOVIN out just yet.
 
mammaknowsbest said:
The only reason Kent and Alan are growing is they got a new PD to kick em in the butt. That was announced a month ago, some guy named Leonard who was a producer somewhere before taking the job. Another PD with no experience.
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This should be good.
mammaknowsbest said:
Unless this is a joke
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A couple of things to get straight. KMPS is clearly beaten by WOLF. WOLF beat them in the Fall book and beat them in the first phase of January. Game over. I agree that KNDD may need to flip format, but the other Entercom stations are doing just fine. WOLF and KISW are solid and KMTT just had a bad trend. I saw the trade announcement for KPLZ's new PD, but if it is really Mr. Leonard, he is hardly inexperienced. He had a long run in NY as an assistant Pd with Scott Shannon and was in Dallas for a time at KISS. MOVIN is the station with the inexperienced PD and ratings do indicate they miss their old PD. KBKS is ugly, both for this trend and really all of last year. Great trend for KJR-FM, KCMS and WOLF. Big props to those stations.

What format would you flip KBKS or KNDD to, if you were to make the move? My vote would be a gold based Soft AC. I know there had been talk at one time about leaning KBSG that direction. KRWM could use the competition and KBKS and KNDD have really no other option. I also think a town like Seattle could use an Active Rock, that really rocks, especially in morning drive. Anyone else with ideas???
 
mammaknowsbest said:
MOVIN seems to have gotten into trouble after their PD left in late Fall. Their numbers have been dropping ever since. Still think the format has legs and if Sandusky would get their act together and get the new talent on the air it still has a bright future. After a great launch a station can shoot itself in the foot. KJR-Fm is a fluke month, get real. KMPS is hurting, but KIRO was number one 12+ for the month, I don't know what you are inhaling TIFM, but to say KIRO and KBSG are over is stretching it. You beat KMPS, but rest of Entercom is bleeding. KNDD is dead, The Mountain had its worst month in years, they have messed up a good station. KISW is off a bit.The WOLF is really the only bright spot at Entercom. The only reason Kent and Alan are growing is they got a new PD to kick em in the butt. That was announced a month ago, some guy named Leonard who was a producer somewhere before taking the job. Another PD with no experience. KBKS is truly dead in the water. MOVIN kills them and KUBE is stronger than ever. My bet is KNDD and KBKS are ripe for format change. Don't count MOVIN out just yet.
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I had a lousy week, Mamma; I knew I could count on you to make me laugh. Thanks.
 
Priceless! I always love to read the Seattle Board when a trend comes out. I won't bother going through the lecture that it is only a trend. Here is what I see from the sales side: Little market change.

KJR-FM is a trend fluke that will correct itself in the next book. No station doubles its numbers in one month. KBSG was cut in half from it's December trend and that didn't happen either. On a four book these stations are tied.

KIRO and KOMO are in a dead heat. KIRO was number one in the market 12+ for the trend and KOMO was number two. 25-54 both stations are in a dead heat and neither is top ten in the market. Sad to see AM no longer a factor in the money demos, except in morning drive. The audience is just aging. I wonder which station will simulcast on FM to get the younger demographic?

I didn't know that KPLZ had a new PD. (if that is true) STAR continues to do well in females and the trend shows them growing again. I don't think a new PD will radically change direction on the station in any case.

Now to WOLF and KMPS. This is a horse race. KMPS leads 12+, but WOLF has passed them 25-54 in two trends. The next two trends will tell the tale. No question WOLF is a player in the market in sales. Buyers usually purchase one country and right now it goes to the station that has the best rate.

MOVIN is another format in a long list of mistakes for 92.5. That is why advertisers buy on a four book and don't look at the first months of a new format.
 
How about KJAQ tied for #2 25-54? Nobody predicted that on this board. After their initial drop everyone seemed to agree that JACK was dead.
 
Congrats again to the Wolf for being a top performer...just a bit more to beat KMPS 12+. Movin will rebound in the next trend...what did the Jan Extrap say....when Christmas drops off Movin should be back over a 3 share again. KPLZ may have rebounded a few tenths, but are still at the bottom of the pack for a full class signal 12+. KPLZ can spin all day long, but being in last place 12+ is nothing to rationalize away.

To Dallas for a moment...Movin here will take off once Christmas drops off.

Does the Christmas factor prove in many markets that AC is struggling with it's normal format.

AM radio just like FM will go downhill if they are not marketed and promoted agressively enough. Switching News/Talk to FM will not help it's demos. Most people interested in News and Politics are over 30 or 35. AM will live on forever as the place for News/Talk not FM. Every News/Talk station that is on FM has proven to be a failure that I know of. Look at the Des Moines market...There is a AM and FM News/Talk station...competing with each other...AM wins big time.
 
TakeItFromMe said:
A couple of things to get straight. KMPS is clearly beaten by WOLF. WOLF beat them in the Fall book and beat them in the first phase of January. Game over. I agree that KNDD may need to flip format, but the other Entercom stations are doing just fine.
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Kind of like your "inside source" said Bonneville was buying Fisher? Your posts lack credibility after you lied to us all.
 
Nothing like getting personal huh cowboy? Who says the Bonneville/Fisher deal won't happen? Why don't we let that one play out for a few months. Seems like everything else I have told y'all has come to pass. WOLF is beating KMPS. MOVIN misses its old PD, the January trend was in the two share range 25-54, when that station drops out November it goes to the bottom of the heap. Shame cause I felt that station had it going, until they got cheap, lost their PD, and didn't hire quality talent. KUBE has jumped way out in front of them again in the 25-54 demo and STAR has passed them up the last two trends. MOVIN is still beating KBKS, but not by much. I'll admit I thought MOVIN was the real deal and it would be if they hadn't made some big mistakes. Maybe Bonneville is turning its eye toward Sandusky, we'll all have to stay tuned. Still think Bonneville bought three declining stations in KIRO, KBSG and KTTH. Let's see in a year who has crediblity and who doesn't, okay cowboy?
 
REMEMBER...

..a cowboy's work is NEVER done!!
:)

Lord knows we can't put our money down on stunning anal-retentiveness...
 
MOVIN is hardly over, Sandusky tried to keep it on the cheap and needs to invest in the morning show they had planned to have in place January 1 and get a promotionally oriented programmer. While many made fun of their last PD, MOVIN launched stronger in Seattle than anywhere in the Country. HOT/AC is a dead format and KLSY had to make a move. Today there is not one HOT/AC in the top ten markets that is working, not even the top 15. It is a format for markets that are 15 and under, it is too broad for major markets. In Seattle, there was not room for two and I would argue that there may not be room for one. Let's see how STAR's new PD Mr. Leonard from NY or Dallas or wherever does. My bet is not much better than the old PD. In the end MOVIN was the right decision, but it has too be supported with good talent and programmers. That is it's downfall right now. KUBE and STAR may have retaken it for a moment, the key will be Sandusky's response in the future.
 
Mamma, you are right on! I just looked at the numbers for the Top 10 and 15 markets. AC, Country and News are the big winners across the country in major markets. HOT/AC and Alternative are terrible. All the HOT/AC stations are in the one and two share range in the top 15 markets. UGLY. MOVIN ain't much better though, Seattle seems to be the bright spot as you suggest, which means they did it right here, but are screwin it up now. Mr. Leonard is actually Assistant PD at STAR according to the trades, not the PD. Other than that you are on the money mamma!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
I think MOViN should have had all their ducks in a row to begin with. They launched great, then let time pass without on-air talent. OK fine, it's just a juke box anyway. But then the talent they do bring in is just so-so.
Now they're still looking for a morning show. How tough can that be to find someone who'll make it a party every morning with a music intensive program? I'm guessing they're not offering much in the way of pay.
 
Jay F said:
How about KJAQ tied for #2 25-54? Nobody predicted that on this board. After their initial drop everyone seemed to agree that JACK was dead.
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i was one that DIDN'T say that....hate to say i told you so...but (i was one that said that it was gonna survive longer than 15 months...almost 2 years!!!!!!
 
Well I am 40 and I listen to Jack FM. I discovered them by accident one day when I was channel surfing. I knew 96.5 was an alternative station before I did the channel surfing then when I went on that station they were playing C & C Music Factory so I couldn't figure out what happened then I eventually found out the station was Jack FM. I have pretty much listened to Jack FM for two years now although sometimes I still turn on KJR FM.
 
Oh please! JACK has one big fluke trend in November. It will drop out in the next phase in the Winter and JACK will drop back. JACK has been down 20% year to year in every book in 2006, that includes Fall, even with the fluke month. KJR-FM got the fluke month in the Winter.

What upsets me about JACK is that they abandoned their TV and became more male leaning. The station has blown away all their female numbers and is almost entirely male. It is the mistake every JACK has made. Of course MOVIN left them little choice.

Ever notice the fluke trends in this market? JACK got it in Fall, KJR-FM got it in Winter. KTTH got one in summer. Wierd. Don't believe everything you see in the numbers. Look for long-term trends like MOVIN, WOLF and the winner new stations. JACK is a fad that looked good, I was on board until they abandoned women, and is over. Watch what happens when November rolls out. Bye bye.
 
What? Did Mammaknowsbest just say it is better to look long term, not at a single book or trend? On that we can agree. JACK has settled into being about half the station it was a year ago and primarily male. They did get the spike trend in November and will drop back once the Winter book comes out, which is why you look at a four book. Stations tend to get good book they don't deserve and a bad book they don't deserve, but over a year it evens out. Stations get unexplained spike months all the time, which is why trends are not really important. KJR-FM got a definite spike in January, JACK got on in November. Other stations get spike that can be explained: KRWM goes up every December as does KCMS thanks to Christmas music and they fade back down by Spring. KOMO goes up every Spring and Fall thanks to the Mariners and fade back down. During disasters, like the storm that hit in January or terror attacks, all news stations go up, then they go back down. That is why sales use four book averages. It evens it all out and gives you clear winners and losers. On the current Seattle 2006 four book the winners 25-54 in prime are:

ADULTS: KZOK, KMPS, KCMS
WOMEN: KRWM, KMPS, KPLZ
MEN: KZOK, KISW, KMPS,
18-34: KUBE, KISW, WOLF

Not too much change from years past except for KIRO and KBKS slipping out of their targets.
 
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