Trends: The Real Story

[djdan]

Big story from the trends: JACK continues to grow and seems to be taking
down a lot of stations in its path. Nice numbers for JACK, KJR-FM, KBSG, KRWM, KWJZ, KUBE, KIRO and KISW. (Iknowitall will be thrilled) KUBE and KISW are really on a roll in the younger demos creating even more distance as KNDD and KBKS continue have issues. Seems like there is only room for one HOT/AC station with KPLZ and KLSY killing each other. KQBZ is also sliding.

Morning numbers, no real change in key demos. Bob Rivers and Howard Stern very strong. Ichabod and Kent and Alan off some, but still strong. T-MAN owns the younger demos with Howard Stern. KRWM, JACK and KJR-FM surprisingly strong even in morning drive. Believe it or not the top AM station for the month in mornings in the key demo was: KVI.

The big questions in advertisers minds: Is JACK for real? Who replaces Howard Stern? Which station will go country?

<P ID="edit"><FONT class="small">Edited by djdan on 11/29/05 04:42 AM.</FONT></P>

 

[morescrapple]

it's just a trend...

> Big story from the trends: JACK continues to grow and seems
> to be taking
> down a lot of stations in its path. Nice numbers for JACK,
> KJR-FM, KBSG, KRWM, KWJZ, KUBE, KIRO and KISW. (Iknowitall
> will be thrilled) KUBE and KISW are really on a roll in the
> younger demos creating even more distance as KNDD and KBKS
> continue have issues. Seems like there is only room for one
> HOT/AC station with KPLZ and KLSY killing each other. KQBZ
> is also sliding.
>
> Morning numbers, no real change in key demos. Bob Rivers
> and Howard Stern very strong. Ichabod and Kent and Alan off
> some, but still strong. T-MAN owns the younger demos with
> Howard Stern. KRWM, JACK and KJR-FM surprisingly strong
> even in morning drive. Believe it or not the top AM station
> for the month in mornings in the key demo was: KVI.
>
> The big questions in advertisers minds: Is JACK for real?
> Who replaces Howard Stern? Which station will go country?
>

 

[LITTLEBOYBLUE]

Thanks, Dan -- always appreciate the perspective you bring to numbers.

One thing that perplexes me -- people seem to assume JACK has a fixed lifespan, even down to "x" months (which implies a "we'll just wait it out" reaction). In some markets it's very strong and doesn't falter; in others it tanks. In each case competition is different, the city is different, the tastes are different -- and even the format execution varies to some extent. Hard to write it off in every major just because Dallas and Denver have had rough go.

From what you pointed out, sure seems that content-driven programming seems to have the upper hand (with exception of KMPS, which is music-intensive). KUBE and KISW, I suspect, are carried by morning shows that do NOT dwell on music; and I'm concerned that it's a sign that music-intensive audiences are turning elsewhere for those choices. I started playing Music Choice (formerly DMX) in my office, and their niche channels have incredible library depth -- exactly what I've wanted for years in gold stations (but the gold stations refuse to deliver anything but the top layer of VERY familiar power hits).

There's no doubt in my mind that the next year or so will tell the story of the next phase of our business one BOOK (chapter) at a time.

 

[Radiobub]

> it's just a trend...
>
> > Big story from the trends: JACK continues to grow and
> seems
> > to be taking
> > down a lot of stations in its path. Nice numbers for
> JACK,
> > KJR-FM, KBSG, KRWM, KWJZ, KUBE, KIRO and KISW. (Iknowitall
>
> > will be thrilled) KUBE and KISW are really on a roll in
> the
> > younger demos creating even more distance as KNDD and KBKS
>
> > continue have issues. Seems like there is only room for
> one
> > HOT/AC station with KPLZ and KLSY killing each other. KQBZ
>
> > is also sliding.
> >
> > Morning numbers, no real change in key demos. Bob Rivers
> > and Howard Stern very strong. Ichabod and Kent and Alan
> off
> > some, but still strong. T-MAN owns the younger demos with
> > Howard Stern. KRWM, JACK and KJR-FM surprisingly strong
> > even in morning drive. Believe it or not the top AM
> station
> > for the month in mornings in the key demo was: KVI.
> >
> > The big questions in advertisers minds: Is JACK for real?
>
> > Who replaces Howard Stern? Which station will go country?
>
> >
>
I am totally shocked at KUBE's numbers. I thought we were done with thugz, hookers, gangs, and shootings. If I were a media buyer I would see what the Spring Book looks like before giving them too much credit. I suspect it's their promotion department and T-man giving them the boost, not necessarily the format.

 

[OttoM]

> One thing that perplexes me -- people seem to assume JACK
> has a fixed lifespan, even down to "x" months (which implies
> a "we'll just wait it out" reaction). In some markets it's
> very strong and doesn't falter; in others it tanks. In each
> case competition is different, the city is different, the
> tastes are different -- and even the format execution varies
> to some extent. Hard to write it off in every major just
> because Dallas and Denver have had rough go.

But here in Seattle - this has been done before. Remember Classic Hits? 96.5 The Point? KBTB? Stations that were great out of the gate - and dead two or three years later.

Tell you what: C'mon back on December 1, 2008 and tell us about Jack's staying power. I bet they'll be playing polkas on 96.5 (and this isn't even a Polish town!).

 

[AQH]

> The big questions in advertisers minds: Is JACK for real?
> Who replaces Howard Stern? Which station will go country?

Jack will survive longer in a handful of markets, and Seattle will be one of them.

Look at its success in Vancouver, but they have been eroding slowly but consistently. They were overtaken by the AC station up there in Adults 25 to 54 in the most recent book.

Stateside, it's still growing in LA, on the decline in Dallas and Denver, and never got off the ground in New York.

Dan -- how much trepedation is in the sales community over Jack?

 

[Jay_F]

> > it's just a trend...
> >
> > > Big story from the trends: JACK continues to grow and
> > seems
> > > to be taking
> > > down a lot of stations in its path. Nice numbers for
> > JACK,
> > > KJR-FM, KBSG, KRWM, KWJZ, KUBE, KIRO and KISW.
> (Iknowitall
> >
> > > will be thrilled) KUBE and KISW are really on a roll in
> > the
> > > younger demos creating even more distance as KNDD and
> KBKS
> >
> > > continue have issues. Seems like there is only room for
> > one
> > > HOT/AC station with KPLZ and KLSY killing each other.
> KQBZ
> >
> > > is also sliding.
> > >
> > > Morning numbers, no real change in key demos. Bob
> Rivers
> > > and Howard Stern very strong. Ichabod and Kent and Alan
>
> > off
> > > some, but still strong. T-MAN owns the younger demos
> with
> > > Howard Stern. KRWM, JACK and KJR-FM surprisingly strong
>
> > > even in morning drive. Believe it or not the top AM
> > station
> > > for the month in mornings in the key demo was: KVI.
> > >
> > > The big questions in advertisers minds: Is JACK for
> real?
> >
> > > Who replaces Howard Stern? Which station will go
> country?
> >
> > >
> >
> I am totally shocked at KUBE's numbers. I thought we were
> done with thugz, hookers, gangs, and shootings. If I were a
> media buyer I would see what the Spring Book looks like
> before giving them too much credit. I suspect it's their
> promotion department and T-man giving them the boost, not
> necessarily the format.
>


It's the format. Does anybody remember that short time period in the mid 90s when KUBE reverted back from rhythmic to CHR/Pop? It was a total disaster.

I knew somebody in 1992 that said there was a huge backlash against rap, predicted rap was over, rhythmic CHR was over, and artists like Patty Smyth would take over youth culture. How wrong they were! One of the secrets of Hip Hop's loooong longevity is that there has always been a large group of people who hate it with a passion. If the day comes when everyone accepts it and likes it,it will be over or reduced to a niche, sort of like current rock product is today.