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Trends

S

salami

Looks like B105 is heading for a strong fall book. MOJO is declining big time. What the heck is happening with that? WYGY is about where they were when AMFM split up B and Y in the sale. Is that progress? It will be interesting to see how MIX and Warm do with the Christmas music in the third trend. Last year there was just MIX wasn't there? They will probably not jump too high this year I imagine. WSAI is up big thanks to the Bengals, no doubt.
Thoughts? (Besides the they're just trends and don't mean anything comments)
 
> Thoughts? (Besides the they're just trends and don't mean
> anything comments)


They're just trends and don't mean anything.
 
> > Thoughts? (Besides the they're just trends and don't mean
> > anything comments)
>
>
> They're just trends and don't mean anything.
>

And they're 12+ numbers at that. Means nothing.
 
> And they're 12+ numbers at that. Means nothing.
Which, once again, begs the question, if they're so meaningless, then why do they do them? I'll tell you what it means, it means you work at a station that has stinky numbers in this category. That's what I think.
 
> > And they're 12+ numbers at that. Means nothing.
> Which, once again, begs the question, if they're so
> meaningless, then why do they do them? I'll tell you what it
> means, it means you work at a station that has stinky
> numbers in this category. That's what I think.
>
No. We're just fine at our station. But I've seen some stations that don't do well in younger demos yet kick butt in 25-54 and have low 12+ numbers. It's called a target demo. Jack stations in some markets are good examples of this. Radio 101 lesson for today.
 
> > And they're 12+ numbers at that. Means nothing.
> Which, once again, begs the question, if they're so
> meaningless, then why do they do them? I'll tell you what it
> means, it means you work at a station that has stinky
> numbers in this category. That's what I think.
>

Trends are exactly what they're named.. a trend of what's to come. the first trend is pretty meaningless...the 2nd trend holds more weight... the 3rd trend gives a nice impression of what to expect. With that said.. 12+ is nothing but bragging rights to which most people couldn't care less.
 
"...the 3rd trend gives a nice impression of what to expect."

Another brain surgeon. Thanks for the quality info.

Love you all. Ho, Ho, Freakin' Ho.




> > > And they're 12+ numbers at that. Means nothing.
> > Which, once again, begs the question, if they're so
> > meaningless, then why do they do them? I'll tell you what
> it
> > means, it means you work at a station that has stinky
> > numbers in this category. That's what I think.
> >
>
> Trends are exactly what they're named.. a trend of what's
> to come. the first trend is pretty meaningless...the 2nd
> trend holds more weight... the 3rd trend gives a nice
> impression of what to expect. With that said.. 12+ is
> nothing but bragging rights to which most people couldn't
> care less.
>
 
> the first trend is pretty meaningless...the 2nd
> trend holds more weight... the 3rd trend gives a nice
> impression of what to expect.
>
Just a little tip. The third trend is basically the book. And plus, the first is not meaningless. The trends are averaged together to make the book. Here's how it works. Let's say the second trend for Cincinnati that just came out is the example. It is being averaged with the first trend of the fall book and the third trend of the summer book. To put it lightly they are all important.
 
> No. We're just fine at our station. But I've seen some
> stations that don't do well in younger demos yet kick butt
> in 25-54 and have low 12+ numbers. It's called a target
> demo. Jack stations in some markets are good examples of
> this. Radio 101 lesson for today.

What is this target demo you speak of? In my 20+ years in radio I've never heard of one of those!!! Please don't lecture me on the formatics of this business. I know that some stations might be doing well in the target demos but I bet you they're not doing that great in any demo if there not in the top 10 12+. PERIOD!
 
Uhhhhh...The third trend is normally called "The Book."

Each month can be extrapolated though.

Don't believe it when someone says they can tell you what's going to happen based on the second trend. It's in the third month of the survey that Arbitron makes up for any shortfall in diary returns. For instance, in highly African American markets, rock stations will be on course for a big book, and then WHAM, Arb oversamples African Americans to get to their diary return number and non-African American stations tank.

The same thing often happens in highly Hispanic markets.

> > > And they're 12+ numbers at that. Means nothing.
> > Which, once again, begs the question, if they're so
> > meaningless, then why do they do them? I'll tell you what
> it
> > means, it means you work at a station that has stinky
> > numbers in this category. That's what I think.
> >
>
> Trends are exactly what they're named.. a trend of what's
> to come. the first trend is pretty meaningless...the 2nd
> trend holds more weight... the 3rd trend gives a nice
> impression of what to expect. With that said.. 12+ is
> nothing but bragging rights to which most people couldn't
> care less.
>
 
I worked with a midday guy who was #3 25-54 Women middays and the station overall was 18th 12+.
 
> > No. We're just fine at our station. But I've seen some
> > stations that don't do well in younger demos yet kick butt
>
> > in 25-54 and have low 12+ numbers. It's called a target
> > demo. Jack stations in some markets are good examples of
> > this. Radio 101 lesson for today.
>
> What is this target demo you speak of? In my 20+ years in
> radio I've never heard of one of those!!! Please don't
> lecture me on the formatics of this business. I know that
> some stations might be doing well in the target demos but I
> bet you they're not doing that great in any demo if there
> not in the top 10 12+. PERIOD!
>
If you don't know what target demos are then you've had some bad training in your 20 years. No one sells 12+ numbers. No one gets bonus money based on 12+ numbers. Thus, they don't matter. Can you now graduate from Radio 101?
 
> > > No. We're just fine at our station. But I've seen some


> If you don't know what target demos are then you've had some
> bad training in your 20 years. No one sells 12+ numbers. No
> one gets bonus money based on 12+ numbers. Thus, they don't
> matter. Can you now graduate from Radio 101?
>
If you're so dense that you can't recognize sarcasm then God help you. I forget more about radio in a day than you probably know. I know you don't sell 12+ numbers but I'm just saying that there isn't a PD or GM worth their weight who wouldn't die to be the #1 12+ station. It's called bragging rights. The papers print these numbers and people see them and it creates what some call a buzz. Plus, if you're #1 12 plus then chances are very good that you're kicking A and taking names in your target demo. With that being said.....
Merry Christmas!
 
> I worked with a midday guy who was #3 25-54 Women middays
> and the station overall was 18th 12+.

Then the rest of that station must have been performing horribly. I'm not saying it doesn't ever happen. But if he was number 3 with women 25-54 and the station as a whole was 18th 12 +, then there was something very wrong with the rest of the dayparts. In most cases a station that is ranked in the top 3 with women 25-54 will be at least a Top 10 12+ station. I've been studying Arbitron for a long time. I'm a stat geek and proud of it. But enough about this, what would you like for Christmas this year?!!?
>
 
> > > > No. We're just fine at our station. But I've seen some
>
>
>
> > If you don't know what target demos are then you've had
> some
> > bad training in your 20 years. No one sells 12+ numbers.
> No
> > one gets bonus money based on 12+ numbers. Thus, they
> don't
> > matter. Can you now graduate from Radio 101?
> >
> If you're so dense that you can't recognize sarcasm then God
> help you. I forget more about radio in a day than you
> probably know. I know you don't sell 12+ numbers but I'm
> just saying that there isn't a PD or GM worth their weight
> who wouldn't die to be the #1 12+ station. It's called
> bragging rights. The papers print these numbers and people
> see them and it creates what some call a buzz. Plus, if
> you're #1 12 plus then chances are very good that you're
> kicking A and taking names in your target demo. With that
> being said.....
> Merry Christmas!
>
Don't need help from God, never have, but thanks. Point taken and through 5 posts or so explained well. It just took awhile to get on the same page. Merry Christmas to you, too!
 
"I know you don't sell 12+ numbers but I'm
just saying that there isn't a PD or GM worth their weight
who wouldn't die to be the #1 12+ station. It's called
bragging rights. The papers print these numbers and people
see them and it creates what some call a buzz. Plus, if
you're #1 12 plus then chances are very good that you're
kicking A and taking names in your target demo."

Wow..I actually agree with you on that. Bragging rights..is right.
 
Absolutely right. Right there with you. I remember once, after I'd been in the business a few years, Jack Benny's ratings were sucking wind, and Lucky Strike was thinking of pulling their advertising, since they wanted the big 12+ numbers (remember, most people started smoking at 13 back then). Rochester was blamed for the bad numbers, so they cut him back for a few weeks and the numbers rebounded.

The man's right...NOTHING's more important that 12+!

> > > > No. We're just fine at our station. But I've seen some
>
>
>
> > If you don't know what target demos are then you've had
> some
> > bad training in your 20 years. No one sells 12+ numbers.
> No
> > one gets bonus money based on 12+ numbers. Thus, they
> don't
> > matter. Can you now graduate from Radio 101?
> >
> If you're so dense that you can't recognize sarcasm then God
> help you. I forget more about radio in a day than you
> probably know. I know you don't sell 12+ numbers but I'm
> just saying that there isn't a PD or GM worth their weight
> who wouldn't die to be the #1 12+ station. It's called
> bragging rights. The papers print these numbers and people
> see them and it creates what some call a buzz. Plus, if
> you're #1 12 plus then chances are very good that you're
> kicking A and taking names in your target demo. With that
> being said.....
> Merry Christmas!
>
 
> Absolutely right. Right there with you. I remember once,
> after I'd been in the business a few years, Jack Benny's
> ratings were sucking wind, and Lucky Strike was thinking of
> pulling their advertising, since they wanted the big 12+
> numbers (remember, most people started smoking at 13 back
> then). Rochester was blamed for the bad numbers, so they cut
> him back for a few weeks and the numbers rebounded.
>
> The man's right...NOTHING's more important that 12+!

Actually, that's pretty funny! You must work for a station with excellent 12+ numbers!!! Seriously, all I wanted to do with my original post was talk about the latest trends for the Fall book. I didn't mean for it to degenerate into this monstrosity! For the last time...
I know no one buys off 12+ numbers
I know that no one gets a bonus on their 12+ numbers
I also know that most people who tell you that having great 12+ numbers doesn't mean anything is forgetting one thing....
Hi, I'm __________ and I work for _________ the number one station in ________.
No need to qualify it with demographic break downs and so forth. Like....
Hi, I'm ___________ and I work for __________ the number one station in _______ with Females between the ages of 18 and 49 who like to wear overall shorts while bringing their husband a beer when he's watching Monster Garage.
In the end though, I will hold on to my assertion that those who harp the loudest about how 12+ doesn't mean anything...probably have really bad 12+ numbers. Feliz Navidad!
 
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