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Tuesday, bloody Tuesday.

No need to be condescending. Stay stuck, and enjoy yourself.
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Bit of a double-standard there on the condescending thing, don't ya think? I will gladly remain "stuck." Stuck in reality, that is.

Once again, things are off the rails here. I'm done toying with you. You clog up this board enough as it is. Say whatever you want.
 
ImHomerJay said: "Hey, we can all play Nostradamus about the future and how we'll be able to conjure up any content we want with our brainwaves...and who knows, maybe we will. But to be fair, a lot of predictions over the years haven't come to pass yet, so let's not get overly carried away.

Here's where we stand today: broadcast, be it radio or TV, isn't dead by a long shot. It's changing and finding a smaller place in a marketplace full of expanding options. That means more centralization and fewer jobs to be sure. Such is the nature of businesses, but some of those jobs will be replaced elsewhere, so all is not lost if you keep a big picture view.

Consumers (viewers, listeners) don't care about the technology so much as the content. "Watching TV" long ago lost any distinction between whether that meant watching broadcast or cable. Radio is gradually losing that distinction now that satellite is starting to spread. Whether it reaches the level TV has remains to be seen, but just like TV had to shed the countless local kids shows, hosted movies and talk programs, so to will many (not all) radio stations continue down the path they've adopted. It sucked for the people who lost their jobs as local programming consolidated around primarily just newscasts, and it sucks for the folks losing their jobs now. I've been on the unemployment line and have nothing but the greatest empathy, but that doesn't change reality.

The obvious way most content will be delivered directly is via the Internet, and we're miles away from widespread, easy ways to achieve that. Some high-end TVs some with Internet connections, and some gadget gurus set up quite elaborate home networks to funnel content around the house, but that's not the norm in the average living room. Moreover, don't forget the need for the Internet service, which should keep the satellite, telephone and cable companies quite happy. Whether the pipes are carrying Mad Men on a linear AMC channel, and on-demand version or over broadband, the connection to the Web still provides revenue.

Moreover, the cost equation still has to be worked out for that kind of future. Producing Mad Men or Nip/Tuck isn't free, and all of the streaming or iTunes-like models so far are just supplemental income, not enough to cover the cost of good-quality content.

Change doesn't mean death is iminent. It means pain sometimes, it means losing something you enjoyed. But just as radio survived the dawn of TV by adapting, it can survive for quite some time as a smaller niche player, just not the mass medium of some years back."

I obviously do not know your old and new media background, and if you have worked in just Philadelphia or other parts of the country/world, but based on my background in the aforementioned areas you covered in your statement both around the U.S. and other countries, I respectfully disagree with most of your statements. That's what makes these forums interesting places - to share opinions/thoughts. Have a good one.
 
Sam Lit said:
Actually, in this case it does. Audience erosion + double digit quarterly advertiser declines + unmanageable excessive debt loads = imminent.
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All huge challenges to be sure. But let's not forget the history tells us the economy--and thus some of those advertiser declines--will ease and then turn around.

Debt loads are not universally the case. Some companies in just about any industry you care to pick overleverage themselves, but some are prudent investors as well. Bad (and sometimes unlucky) financial management has been with us since the dawn of capitalism. You hear about the big flameouts; you don't hear about the smart guys who keep humming along below the radar.

Audience erosion may make some formats and properties less viable, and some, perhaps many, weaker ones will almost certainly fail. But for quite some number of years from now, there will be some that work, and some new ones to come along. Laugh at Rumba 104.5 all you want (and it was a silly decision at the time), but changing demographics mean such stations may be part of the future.

It took satellite and cable television years to reach near ubiquity. Satellite radio may get there, and that may as a technical specification, replace terrestrial radio, but sitting here in 2009 and saying there's a huge difference between terrestrial and satellite is a somewhat silly semantic argument.
 
In case you haven’t looked under the hood of Satellite radio's 10 cents a share, it is practically all but doomed already. Talk about debt loads. They’ll no doubt be filing for protection in this year, probably by mid march. Add the fact that refinancing even under restructuring will be all but remote if not impossible, plus combine that with capitol expenditures that require replacing their satellites periodically, will undoubtedly bring as similar a fate as circuit city. By 2011 the satellite receiver paperweight will be as fashionable as the 8 track. Oh, and no charge for the investment analysis. I wouldn't get suckered into rushing out for that multi system companionable receiver with a years worth of service in advance for a discount no matter how stuck you are.
 
All of which may or may not play out as you predict, though it appears you have something of a grudge against anything that isn't your business model.

Even if satellite radio does fold, so far, none of the other technologies have yet come up with a model as close as satellite came to ubiquity and ease of experience (or use). Internet streaming is all well and good, but not even close to practical on a wide scale for mobile listening, or in the types environments where broadband isn't available. Even if other parts of the business model are fatally flawed, satellite at least showed that 'portability' is important.
 
imhomerjay said:
All of which may or may not play out as you predict, though it appears you have something of a grudge against anything that isn't your business model.

Even if satellite radio does fold, so far, none of the other technologies have yet come up with a model as close as satellite came to ubiquity and ease of experience (or use). Internet streaming is all well and good, but not even close to practical on a wide scale for mobile listening, or in the types environments where broadband isn't available. Even if other parts of the business model are fatally flawed, satellite at least showed that 'portability' is important.
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I think you'd be better suited to view my timely analysis as a professional courtesy that you may find some value in. Incidentally, if you took even a casual note of my December posts, you could have had a timely predictive analysis of the Clear Channel slaughter. Which I might add is only the early tremors of the demise of the terrestrial broadcast industry as it has come to be, or what ever will be left of it. If you think that listening to those silly little terrestrial stations and their 42 minutes of music every hour is exciting, or fulfilling, by any measure, then you have no measurable experience you can compare it to.
Apparently, you clearly have yet to experience even the most simplistic system application dimension of portable internet protocol. And that actually is sad because that leaves your point of reference inextricable linked to that little old FM radio, and your descriptive industry experience at just above a third grade level.
 
Hey, if you feel better hurling insults about someone's experience level because it makes you feel better, have at it. The mere fact I don't have an ax to grind may not be to your liking, but trust me, I'm quite above a third-grade level.

What it seems you are trying to mightily dismiss is that the introduction of new technology "A" does not mean the majority of the population will entirely drop old technology "B" like a hot potato. The more common trend, particularly as it comes to media is that people expand their menu of media options, not entirely displace one form. It doesn't mean there aren't obvious examples of people who will simply follow every trend because it's the hot new toy of the moment, nor does it mean those who continue to use previously existing forms of media are luddites who refuse to catch up with the times. Case in point: by and large, reputable study upon reputable study shows that while viewing of what could be called "traditional" media content (meaning for this discussion professional content a la movies or TV shows) is unquestionably on the rise, it has not caused overall TV viewing to go down. To the contrary, those users by and large are using online content to catch up with something they missed along the way, and then continuing their regular viewing on 'regular' TV. The new model is helping the old one.

Entertinament and information media is clearly important to people's lives. But in a paradox, all of the other demands mean that getting that information needs to be simple and have as consistent an experience as possible. Portable internet protocol has a long way to get to that point, and a longer way still to convince people it is somehow so much better as to be worth the additional cost. Moreover, not everyone looks to sources of music or talk as needing to be the height of fulfillment. It's something that accompanies an often more important task--again, stressing the importance of ease, uniquity and portability.
 
Ah, so knowing nothing of someone's experience level, you assume it's not as vast as yours. Is that how we feel better about ourselves?

The difference is those of us in the real world have evidence and experience to back us up, not hype, smoke and mirrors.
 
Too bad your conclusions are...how to say it nicely...laughably, pathetically false. I'm sorry that the evidence is what it is, but that's the pesky thing about facts. They get in the way of a good rant.
 
Is that really the best you can do? I would have expected a bit better, but c'est la vie.

Tell you what, here's an easy one: prove that I've "never seen" such devices. Go ahead. And I'll be checking by blackberry and iTouch to see your proof. (Oh wait....that's right, when confronted with inconvenient info, you prefer to pretend anyone who questions your vision of the future as being a caveman. Not exactly great debate style.)

The introduction of a new technology does not always spell the end of an old one, particularly when the new one has not demonstrated on a mass scale that it can replicate the convenience and ubiquity of the old one. I hope your venture succeeds, I really do. But your success won't necessarily mean you've vanquished some older technology you appear to seem to have a personal issue with.
 
Oh my gosh, that so changes everything. A snapshot of stocks in the middle of a deep recession that's pulling all kinds of businesses down. Clearly, new technology will rule the day then. I mean, just look at the history of the original Internet bubble, and how everything launched and hyped then destroyed all that came before it, leaving us in this great state of technoeuphoria.

If every company or every sector seeing its stock price suffer goes away, radio will be the least of anyone's worries--there won't be a country left standing.

Sam Lit said:
I rest my case.
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It is looking a bit like it needs a rest, what with it having no legs to stand on and all.
 
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