Upcoming Monroe Numbers

[jingle_freek1]

I can't beleive this hasn't been started as numbers are just a matter of weeks from being released. So I was wondering what all the Monroe radio fans predictions are as to what stations are going to land where.

Here are my predictions.

The BEAT will hold on to its number 1 spot, may not have as high of a share as last book.

KJMG and THE PARTY will be running a tight race for number 2 and I beleive THE PARTY has a very good shot at being number 2.

K104 and LA 105 will most likely remain in the top 5, but one could be possibly be booted by SUNNY.

ROCK 106 will probaly go down some with the loss of Whip, probably go to numer 6 or 7.

FM 102 should remain in their current position, they lost alot of younger listeners at night, but gained an equally numbered older audience.

KMLB and KRJO will probably top off the Top 10, could possibly go down.

REAL County, well it's hard to say since all the country stations did a nose dive last time around, I don't see them going down, could possibly move up to the TOP 10.

THE HILL will most likey remain in their current position, if anything they will go up.

KNOE AM will remain the same.

And KXKZ will remain the same, if anything happens they will go down.

That is what I think the numbers are going to look like, what do all of you think?

 

[chriscollins]

I agree that we will keep #1 with The Beat... Party @ #2, I doubt seriously. I feel that Majic will be 2 or 3... It fluctuates. I'm guessing 104 @ 2 or 3. I think they had a good book. 102 will be the same waste it always is. 106 will perform in the same ballpark as last time. They have peaked and come to a level standing. As far as party, I give them a 6.5-8.0 share. I just don't think that will be enough to get them to #2... Maybe #4. They dumped the white listener (which was over 50% of their audience), by going more Urban and putting on Grave and now Rob Lloyd... A 50+ year old man playing hip-hop... That's laughable. So, they lose 50% (the white listeners), which drops them to a 2.7... Pick up a 4.0 share of african american listeners and they come out 1 point above their previous rank (5.5) with a 6.7 or slightly higher. However, that will hurt The Beat more, because our #'s are predominately african american (which really isn't true). We (The Beat) will probably drop to a 15.5-16.0 share.

There's my insight.

Chris Collins

 

[M1A1_2]

Chris,

I was a bit surprised that your bias against your former employees skewed your usually reliable analytical insight. Lets go back to the basics and *truly* look at the upcoming book. Just like you did last time. Please tell us from a professional point of view the *whole* picture. Name names if you must but don't take it to a personal level.

With that said, do you not put LA105 in the top 5? Sunny 98 is no longer an upstart it seems to be a true contender--why don't you have them in the top 5? Is country up or down overall? What about Z107.5 and Country 92? What about the battle of the news-talks: will KMLB hold top spot or will KNOE surpass them? Does the all sports B99 get anything? Does *anybody* on this forum believe that FM102 and The Hill will ever amount to anything under their current inept leadership?

How about non-comm's: does KXUL still scrape bottom? Does the blatant commercials (as stated by a ULM prof) that the 88.7 Cross runs get them in hot water or get them ratings? Does KEDM maintain their recent ratings surge?

Look forward to hearing your answers and the forum's consensus opinion!

> I agree that we will keep #1 with The Beat... Party @ #2, I
> doubt seriously. I feel that Majic will be 2 or 3... It
> fluctuates. I'm guessing 104 @ 2 or 3. I think they had a
> good book. 102 will be the same waste it always is. 106
> will perform in the same ballpark as last time. They have
> peaked and come to a level standing. As far as party, I
> give them a 6.5-8.0 share. I just don't think that will be
> enough to get them to #2... Maybe #4. They dumped the white
> listener (which was over 50% of their audience), by going
> more Urban and putting on Grave and now Rob Lloyd... A 50+
> year old man playing hip-hop... That's laughable. So, they
> lose 50% (the white listeners), which drops them to a 2.7...
> Pick up a 4.0 share of african american listeners and they
> come out 1 point above their previous rank (5.5) with a 6.7
> or slightly higher. However, that will hurt The Beat more,
> because our #'s are predominately african american (which
> really isn't true). We (The Beat) will probably drop to a
> 15.5-16.0 share.
>
> There's my insight.
>
> Chris Collins
>

 

[chriscollins]

Simmer down now. ... I didn't predict a 'top 5'... Just gave my thoughts on the Top 4. Z107.5 will never be a player in Monroe. They make their money in Ruston and that is who they market to (with reasonable success, I hear). Overall, country should be up. Country took a huge hit last book. I would expect 104 & 92 to show more improvement than 107.5. I can't see 98 top 5 12+, however that is not their target. They have a good chance of a nice performance 25-54. It just depends. Looking at the last book, almost all of the numbers they had came in the 4 week period of X-mas music. Historically, AC stations that spike because of X-mas music return to normal in the Spring. That would put them around a 4 share (if you extract the first 8 weeks of the survey). No, 102 and The Hill will never be anything. Actually, if you could see the non-com's as I can, you would see The Cross with a pretty solid 12+ share (I won't give actual #'s, but they beat 102). I think 98, 105, and 106 will be very close in the overall 12+ picture. KMLB is hard to call. In my opinion, we are running it better than ever... Will it translate into ratings? I'm not sure. I do think the highest numerically rated station of Opus will be Party. If you want a top 5 12+ prediction from me, here it is.

1. The Beat
2. K-104
3. Majic 97
4. The Party
5. 105/106 Tie or very close

Please let me know if this explanation was more to your liking.

Chris


> Chris,
>
> I was a bit surprised that your bias against your former
> employees skewed your usually reliable analytical insight.
> Lets go back to the basics and *truly* look at the upcoming
> book. Just like you did last time. Please tell us from a
> professional point of view the *whole* picture. Name names
> if you must but don't take it to a personal level.
>
> With that said, do you not put LA105 in the top 5? Sunny 98
> is no longer an upstart it seems to be a true contender--why
> don't you have them in the top 5? Is country up or down
> overall? What about Z107.5 and Country 92? What about the
> battle of the news-talks: will KMLB hold top spot or will
> KNOE surpass them? Does the all sports B99 get anything?
> Does *anybody* on this forum believe that FM102 and The Hill
> will ever amount to anything under their current inept
> leadership?
>
> How about non-comm's: does KXUL still scrape bottom? Does
> the blatant commercials (as stated by a ULM prof) that the
> 88.7 Cross runs get them in hot water or get them ratings?
> Does KEDM maintain their recent ratings surge?
>
> Look forward to hearing your answers and the forum's
> consensus opinion!
>
> > I agree that we will keep #1 with The Beat... Party @ #2,
> I
> > doubt seriously. I feel that Majic will be 2 or 3... It
> > fluctuates. I'm guessing 104 @ 2 or 3. I think they had
> a
> > good book. 102 will be the same waste it always is. 106
> > will perform in the same ballpark as last time. They have
>
> > peaked and come to a level standing. As far as party, I
> > give them a 6.5-8.0 share. I just don't think that will
> be
> > enough to get them to #2... Maybe #4. They dumped the
> white
> > listener (which was over 50% of their audience), by going
> > more Urban and putting on Grave and now Rob Lloyd... A 50+
>
> > year old man playing hip-hop... That's laughable. So,
> they
> > lose 50% (the white listeners), which drops them to a
> 2.7...
> > Pick up a 4.0 share of african american listeners and they
>
> > come out 1 point above their previous rank (5.5) with a
> 6.7
> > or slightly higher. However, that will hurt The Beat
> more,
> > because our #'s are predominately african american (which
> > really isn't true). We (The Beat) will probably drop to a
>
> > 15.5-16.0 share.
> >
> > There's my insight.
> >
> > Chris Collins
> >
>

 

[radiosouth]

I see it this way: It looks like we all agree that the party will do very well, LA 105 aways seems to be right up there, 102 will always be a waste until someone decides to make it sound good, but I see more of an effect on the morning show change on 106 than the Whipping Boy ousted, 92 is anyone's guess, haven't heard Rick Knighten on there in the past two weeks, vacation?

Mike (trying very hard to listen to radio in Monroe)

 

[nocternal_freek]

I know you adressed this mainly to Chris, but I thought you had some great questions.


> With that said, do you not put LA105 in the top 5?

I've never really been a big fan of LA. Then again, I'm not in the demo. If they are Top 5, it will be close. I agree with Chris, I think it will be close with LA and Rock 106.

Sunny 98
> is no longer an upstart it seems to be a true contender--why
> don't you have them in the top 5?

I think Sunny has a rock hard core 35-54. It might not look that way with the 12+ numbers, but then again, they don't tell the whole story as we all know. Go to their next promotion. I heard their Ladie's Night Out was huge.

Is country up or down
> overall? What about Z107.5 and Country 92?

I do think the last book was a little off for country. But I don't see eye to eye with the big rebound of K104 and 92 that Chris speaks of. Maybe a bit, but I don't see huge jumps back to where they were this time last year.

What about the
> battle of the news-talks: will KMLB hold top spot or will
> KNOE surpass them?

KNOE has a dynamite lineup, but I have to admit, I am a fan of local talk radio and Moon nails it. He's a great host. That said, I don't see either one of them having outstanding books.

Does the all sports B99 get anything?

Squat. B99 had a somewhat loyal at-work crowd in Ruston. If that is what those guys at the group wanted, the Ruston crowd, they squashed it with this flip. Down big.

> Does *anybody* on this forum believe that FM102 and The Hill
> will ever amount to anything under their current inept
> leadership?

In one word, no. FM102's presentation is all over the place. Bobby tries to keep it together, but all for naught when the GM goes over your head and puts Alan Kabel on the air. I think I'm going to take Chris's stance from earlier last year and refrain from advice. Might give them an advantage. I am available for a consulting fee, Randy. The Hill, I can't speak so much for. I don't know much about, or listen much for that matter.

> How about non-comm's: does KXUL still scrape bottom?

I can't bash KXUL. I used to work there, but I'm trying to be objective. KXUL has their audience. A former PD drove listenership in the ground. They're recovering, slowly but surely. KXUL will never be a dominant force in the market and Joel knows that. With that said, I wish him and the whole crew nothing but the best of luck. One day, I hope to work in a commercial studio that is upkept as well as Joel keeps KXUL.

Does
> the blatant commercials (as stated by a ULM prof) that the
> 88.7 Cross runs get them in hot water or get them ratings?

This could very well get a non-comm in serious trouble. No calls to action and they should be fine.

> Does KEDM maintain their recent ratings surge?

Doubt it. KEDM is a great source for the community. I enjoy public radio every now and then. They're news is far and above any you could get here commercially. But, like with KXUL, I never see KEDM being a major player in this market. They have their niche audience, and as long as they meet their drive goal or don't mispronounce a word, everything should be fine. lol



Now, a clarvoiant top 5
1. The Beat
2. Majic 97
3. The Party<----This is going to be close 12+
4. K104<---------/
5. LA105/Rock 106


Hope that was objective enough for you.

 

[chriscollins]

Very well put, nocternal... I will agree with you that the country stations will not be at last years level, however, I do see improvement.

I'm waiting on a Top 5 from M1A1_2. They made a post, but without predictions.

Chris


> I know you adressed this mainly to Chris, but I thought you
> had some great questions.
>
>
> > With that said, do you not put LA105 in the top 5?
>
> I've never really been a big fan of LA. Then again, I'm not
> in the demo. If they are Top 5, it will be close. I agree
> with Chris, I think it will be close with LA and Rock 106.
>
> Sunny 98
> > is no longer an upstart it seems to be a true
> contender--why
> > don't you have them in the top 5?
>
> I think Sunny has a rock hard core 35-54. It might not look
> that way with the 12+ numbers, but then again, they don't
> tell the whole story as we all know. Go to their next
> promotion. I heard their Ladie's Night Out was huge.
>
> Is country up or down
> > overall? What about Z107.5 and Country 92?
>
> I do think the last book was a little off for country. But
> I don't see eye to eye with the big rebound of K104 and 92
> that Chris speaks of. Maybe a bit, but I don't see huge
> jumps back to where they were this time last year.
>
> What about the
> > battle of the news-talks: will KMLB hold top spot or will
>
> > KNOE surpass them?
>
> KNOE has a dynamite lineup, but I have to admit, I am a fan
> of local talk radio and Moon nails it. He's a great host.
> That said, I don't see either one of them having outstanding
> books.
>
> Does the all sports B99 get anything?
>
> Squat. B99 had a somewhat loyal at-work crowd in Ruston.
> If that is what those guys at the group wanted, the Ruston
> crowd, they squashed it with this flip. Down big.
>
> > Does *anybody* on this forum believe that FM102 and The
> Hill
> > will ever amount to anything under their current inept
> > leadership?
>
> In one word, no. FM102's presentation is all over the
> place. Bobby tries to keep it together, but all for naught
> when the GM goes over your head and puts Alan Kabel on the
> air. I think I'm going to take Chris's stance from earlier
> last year and refrain from advice. Might give them an
> advantage. I am available for a consulting fee, Randy. The
> Hill, I can't speak so much for. I don't know much about,
> or listen much for that matter.
>
> > How about non-comm's: does KXUL still scrape bottom?
>
> I can't bash KXUL. I used to work there, but I'm trying to
> be objective. KXUL has their audience. A former PD drove
> listenership in the ground. They're recovering, slowly but
> surely. KXUL will never be a dominant force in the market
> and Joel knows that. With that said, I wish him and the
> whole crew nothing but the best of luck. One day, I hope to
> work in a commercial studio that is upkept as well as Joel
> keeps KXUL.
>
> Does
> > the blatant commercials (as stated by a ULM prof) that the
>
> > 88.7 Cross runs get them in hot water or get them ratings?
>
>
> This could very well get a non-comm in serious trouble. No
> calls to action and they should be fine.
>
> > Does KEDM maintain their recent ratings surge?
>
> Doubt it. KEDM is a great source for the community. I
> enjoy public radio every now and then. They're news is far
> and above any you could get here commercially. But, like
> with KXUL, I never see KEDM being a major player in this
> market. They have their niche audience, and as long as they
> meet their drive goal or don't mispronounce a word,
> everything should be fine. lol
>
>
>
> Now, a clarvoiant top 5
> 1. The Beat
> 2. Majic 97
> 3. The Party
>
<P ID="edit"><FONT class="small">Edited by chriscollins on 08/01/05 10:40 PM.</FONT></P>

 

[DallasHampton]

Whoa!

Ya'll Monroe radio broadcasters are agressive. Just a new guy in the area listening in to your stations.

I like the Beat. I could be considered a P1 of that station, even though, I get tired of hearing the same music all day. And that 6-10 jock sometimes talk too much. The mid-day girl is good.

I listen to the Party because they play new music first. Sometimes, I do switch when I hear certain recurrents. But I always go back. A mid-dayer will be good while I am at work.

The Beat and The Party competing provides a good balance for us listeners. I just hope The Party don't try to sound like The Beat. I have listened to this in major markets and it is horrible for the listener. Two songs playing at the same time on both stations. It happens more often than you think. Perhaps it is my ignorance of this radio biz.

They only reason why I listen to 102FM is for the music. But when they open there mics, I cringe. The morning show needs Jesus and a sidekick. And Alan Cable is...??? I will put it like this...I don't care about a "Fairy Circle" or hearing him coax a woman to convince food that it will be okay when it is devoured.

I prefer local talk over syndicate and the ESPN station is cool, but I would like to here what they have planned for all of the local sports. I heard they folded in Shreveport. Plus, when I heard a promo for one of their local sports shows, it sounded horrible. The hosts seemed to not have any confidence. How can I believe that they are giving me accurate information?

I'll keep listening to Monroe's radio. I like to know what stations I need to tune into my dial. I have listened to Sunny and Majic and other stations, but not enough to really give my uninvited opinion.

Though I am only a very tiny % of your AQH, other markets I have lived, seemed to enjoy my blogs.

Good luck with the books.

 

[jack_michaelson]

I agree with Harvey. As a former jock of the area I tend to pick up on more of the details.
Opus is on the way to controlling this maket. The business sence and the talent behind them are overwhelming.

Radio people are just mediocre and will stay that way. The beat is the only thing holding them up. Give it time and the numbers between the Beat and The Party will even out.

KNOE is a joke with its current GM. He steps all over the PD not letting him do his job. He needs to get off the jocks back too so they can relax on the air (stress levels are that apparent with them). Reading their show-prep on the air sounds like a bad version of the daily show woth music, and Alan Cabel is FM102s biggest mistake since Adam Holland.

88.7 will go downHILL until the board gets tied of them. Getting rid of Downhour will be the death of them. Nobody else in management knows radio law. There is only one person there that knows what he is doing and he is willing to leave on a whim at this point.
> Whoa!
>
> Ya'll Monroe radio broadcasters are agressive. Just a new
> guy in the area listening in to your stations.
>
> I like the Beat. I could be considered a P1 of that station,
> even though, I get tired of hearing the same music all day.
> And that 6-10 jock sometimes talk too much. The mid-day girl
> is good.
>
> I listen to the Party because they play new music first.
> Sometimes, I do switch when I hear certain recurrents. But
> I always go back. A mid-dayer will be good while I am at
> work.
>
> The Beat and The Party competing provides a good balance for
> us listeners. I just hope The Party don't try to sound like
> The Beat. I have listened to this in major markets and it
> is horrible for the listener. Two songs playing at the same
> time on both stations. It happens more often than you
> think. Perhaps it is my ignorance of this radio biz.
>
> They only reason why I listen to 102FM is for the music.
> But when they open there mics, I cringe. The morning show
> needs Jesus and a sidekick. And Alan Cable is...??? I will
> put it like this...I don't care about a "Fairy Circle" or
> hearing him coax a woman to convince food that it will be
> okay when it is devoured.
>
> I prefer local talk over syndicate and the ESPN station is
> cool, but I would like to here what they have planned for
> all of the local sports. I heard they folded in Shreveport.
> Plus, when I heard a promo for one of their local sports
> shows, it sounded horrible. The hosts seemed to not have
> any confidence. How can I believe that they are giving me
> accurate information?
>
> I'll keep listening to Monroe's radio. I like to know what
> stations I need to tune into my dial. I have listened to
> Sunny and Majic and other stations, but not enough to really
> give my uninvited opinion.
>
> Though I am only a very tiny % of your AQH, other markets I
> have lived, seemed to enjoy my blogs.
>
> Good luck with the books.
>

 

[chriscollins]

Must take a little offense here, guys... I'm a mild mannered guy, but I must correct a few things. Party plays things after us. I can put a song in Battle of The Beats, and they play it in rotation the next day. That is the typical copycat syndrome competitors have. They are much more like The Beat than 8 months ago. Apart from Kraddick in the morning, they are our twin, with a couple of extra recurrents in the mid-day. Afternoon on, we are basically identical. Their only form of competition is imitation. That will fail. For a station that calls itself Rhythmic Chr, why do I play Hollaback Girl and they don't??? Because they are Urban now (and not following the chart well).

As far as Opus, please look at the Alex #'s. Unless they pull off a miracle here in 7 days... They may be in a bit of trouble. I've been in competition before, with a much more aggressive adversary (KYEA/Bradley Wilkerson). Believe me, I was much more concerned back then. I expect Party at a 6.5-8.0 share, but we will still best them by 5-7.5 shares 12+.

> I agree with Harvey. As a former jock of the area I tend to
> pick up on more of the details.
> Opus is on the way to controlling this maket. The business
> sence and the talent behind them are overwhelming.
>
> Radio people are just mediocre and will stay that way. The
> beat is the only thing holding them up. Give it time and the
> numbers between the Beat and The Party will even out.
>
> KNOE is a joke with its current GM. He steps all over the PD
> not letting him do his job. He needs to get off the jocks
> back too so they can relax on the air (stress levels are
> that apparent with them). Reading their show-prep on the air
> sounds like a bad version of the daily show woth music, and
> Alan Cabel is FM102s biggest mistake since Adam Holland.
>
> 88.7 will go downHILL until the board gets tied of them.
> Getting rid of Downhour will be the death of them. Nobody
> else in management knows radio law. There is only one person
> there that knows what he is doing and he is willing to leave
> on a whim at this point.
> > Whoa!
> >
> > Ya'll Monroe radio broadcasters are agressive. Just a new
>
> > guy in the area listening in to your stations.
> >
> > I like the Beat. I could be considered a P1 of that
> station,
> > even though, I get tired of hearing the same music all
> day.
> > And that 6-10 jock sometimes talk too much. The mid-day
> girl
> > is good.
> >
> > I listen to the Party because they play new music first.
> > Sometimes, I do switch when I hear certain recurrents.
> But
> > I always go back. A mid-dayer will be good while I am at
> > work.
> >
> > The Beat and The Party competing provides a good balance
> for
> > us listeners. I just hope The Party don't try to sound
> like
> > The Beat. I have listened to this in major markets and it
>
> > is horrible for the listener. Two songs playing at the
> same
> > time on both stations. It happens more often than you
> > think. Perhaps it is my ignorance of this radio biz.
> >
> > They only reason why I listen to 102FM is for the music.
> > But when they open there mics, I cringe. The morning show
>
> > needs Jesus and a sidekick. And Alan Cable is...??? I
> will
> > put it like this...I don't care about a "Fairy Circle" or
> > hearing him coax a woman to convince food that it will be
> > okay when it is devoured.
> >
> > I prefer local talk over syndicate and the ESPN station is
>
> > cool, but I would like to here what they have planned for
> > all of the local sports. I heard they folded in
> Shreveport.
> > Plus, when I heard a promo for one of their local sports
> > shows, it sounded horrible. The hosts seemed to not have
> > any confidence. How can I believe that they are giving me
>
> > accurate information?
> >
> > I'll keep listening to Monroe's radio. I like to know
> what
> > stations I need to tune into my dial. I have listened to
> > Sunny and Majic and other stations, but not enough to
> really
> > give my uninvited opinion.
> >
> > Though I am only a very tiny % of your AQH, other markets
> I
> > have lived, seemed to enjoy my blogs.
> >
> > Good luck with the books.
> >
>

 

[DallasHampton]

Yeah Chris. I didn't mean to offend you. I have read your past blogs and I know you are a thoughtful guy.

The copycat syndrome is exaclty what I fear about you and The Party. Do you know who is the PD over that station? Lol, I admire your politically correct statment refering to the PD's confusion on reading music charts, lol. Serioulsy, I am guessing anyone who has the responsiblity of helming a station has aquired that simple skill.

Maybe they are really trying to go urban. I asked if you know the PD because I was wandering if you know his/her background. If he/she comes from an Urban background, then Boom! There you have it!!

My assumption is this. The PD has a CHR background and upper management now wants to play more urban music after they realized they can win in this market. Why settle for third, when you have a chance to be number one?

I haven't heard a mid-dayer yet, but they have a pretty good line-up of talent. I checked their website, they have an addition to the team. I haven't heard him yet either.

In the end, it boils down to the music for me, damn what the personalities are saying, unless "call in for a prize," or telling me where to go party. Other than that, I'm tuning out.

When 103.1 goes urban, they will have to change their brand name as well. I have never heard of any Urban stations calling themselves "The Party." They will have to use "Jamz" or "The Joint." Just a thought. For kicks, what do you think? HA HA!