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Voice Tracking is killing radio

Re: Gut programming is arrogant

>
> Dave, slow down, here! We're not talking about foreign
> countries! We're talking about Houston, Dallas, San
> Antonio, Birmingham, Des Moines, etc.

I don't see why looking at an even broader picture to be harmful. I was told that looking at subsets was so, so I expanded the horizon to include noth just the US but the world. As I said, certain things are universal.
>
>
> Like I said, Dave....we're talking to two different groups
> of listeners.
>

OK, my group consists of "people." Mostly in the US. What does your group consist of?
>
> Good point about the gold, but, the gold isn't what I'm
> refering to. In fact, if it's been a long time since a
> "gold" tune has been heard, you can still "sell" it without
> patronizing the listener. It just takes a little
> intelligence.....something that's not, generally, found in
> management.

Yet, when you actually talk to the listener in any but anecdotal situations, they do not want this information 99% of the time. RDS would be a better solution. Or using, "If you ever whant to know what we are p;laying and where to buy it, check our website at..." to drive traffic to the web. The fact is, the traffic will be limited, and the number of people who want to know specific titles is such a small percent of listeners as to be boring to the rest. On an 18-34 staiton, there may be a few percent who want the market close info, but most won't. And doing that feature, over time, will irritate the core listener.
>
>
> >
> > Actually, it is too much talk and boring content in most
> > formats. If you look at real time programming with the
> kind
> > of EKG display used for testing political speeches or TV
> > commercials, you see a huge fall-off in appeal with
> > multi-song backsells, and very limited appeal of
> backselling
> > artist and title.
> >
>
> Oh, geeze, Dave. Get your head out of the clouds! This
> psychobabble is grating on me. This is freakin' RADIO! Not
> Space Shuttle science. Trust your gut!

The most frequent comment I hear among programmers is that getting listener input is so valuable and will blow away the gut technique.

In fact, gut programming is supreme arrogance. It is saying, "I know what you want and I am going to make you like it." That may have worked for the Politburo in the USSR, but not on radio.

Being able to tell what listeners like and what they don't so one can be improved and continued and the other modified or discontinued is, simply, allowing the listener to be part of programming.

However, one has to measure the listener in a listener's environment... actual listening, not with a high-school like questionnaire or randomless anecdotal evidence.

> Example...when you
> say you can't distinguish voice-tracked content from live,
> you're listening to the mechanics....not the SOUL of the
> content.

I have worked in the past with stations with more limited resorces, where we used weekday talent on weekends, and even voice traced weekdays so we could get the talent on the street. We never, ever, heard a comment about the staiton not being live. No one could tell the difference, as the tracking was done very carefully, listening to tips and tails and giving adequate time to prep. The station cumed a million, about 40% more than any other station.

Well done, tracking is very effective if the format is done well, if the approach fits listener expectations and if the few "must be live" elements can be done in other fashions... like weather from another party, contests done by a boar-op with winner drops, etc.

> It's perfectly okay for a jock to, occasionally,
> say, "Um", or to stumble over a word, laugh, or even step on
> a vocal.

Sometimes. Sounding natural is important. Stepping on the songs, wich is what most listeners came for, is not... any more than occasionally driving on the left side of the road is OK.

> If he's clever enough to come up with a great
> recovery, the audience was just entertained. No one died.
> No blood was spilled, and someone got a laugh out of it. My
> old friend, J R Nelson of Detroit, was a master at that sort
> of thing.

About 0.1% of jocks can do this. In most cases, it is better to try to conform to what we know are realities. On exceptional occasions, all the rules can be broken because this creates an attractive option. Usually, breaking rules is like letting a puppy go on the carpet... the result of the rule breaking is highly unappealing.
>
>
> Bully for you! A couple of million would've gone a long way
> toward buying some better talent.....both, on and off the
> air talent. Maybe "half of all radio stations" wouldn't be
> losing money.

We have some of the best talent in the biz, and totally live 24/7 operations. You missed where I mentioned we did not even know how to track?

#1 mornings in markets like LA and Houston and Dallas and Phoenix and San Diego and such is hardly being in need of better talent. The research component is exactly what allows the talent to stay in contact with listener taste rather than playing to the sidekicks in the studio.
>
> I didn't say Mexico didn't have that stuff. However, I am
> very aware of Mexico's racial divide....and it's huge!

There is no racial divide. Therre is an income divide. Mexico is not racist, it is classist. An indigenous person with money is the same as a Spanish origin person with money, and 80% of the country is mestizo.

> It
> translates, directly, into a huge economic divide, (witness
> the influx of illegal aliens into the U.S.). In Mexico,
> there is a far greater dependence on radio, than there is in
> the U.S.

The migration has to do with income and the failure of the ejido system in Mexico and one of the world's highest concentrations of rural uneducated poor. It has nothing to do with race.

Actually, radio is used slightly less in Mexico than the US... due partly to the fact that no owner wants to program to "E" socioeconomic level because they are economically unproductive. And, with less stations per capita than the US, many rural areas are not well served.
>
> Yeah, and explain to me why, independently owned stations
> can't engage, by way of business association, in program
> sharing. It's been done for years. But, what has happened
> in the USA, with consolodation, is the demise of local,
> privately-owned radio, and, to a great extent, minority
> ownership.

Most of these are bank-related rather than radio related. radio does not finance radio. Banks and VC's do.

On the other hand, outside of the top rated markets, there is lots of local ownership. There are over 3000 owners in the US, only a few of them having large numbers of stations.
>
> >
> > You have OBVIOUSLY not been in Mexico lately.
> >
>
> Obviously? Wrong!

Sorry. Then I should say, you did not make valid observations. I have corrected several of them in this post... such as radio usage, race vs. class, etc.
>
> >The cities have every convenience that is available in the
> US or
> > Europe. Cable, satellite, DSL (cheaper, in fact) and a
> much
> > more modern phone system in some cities. And, as I said,
> > there is a huge urban middle class.
>
> I hear they have hot & cold running water, too!

That is borderline racist... the middle class in Mexico lives far better than the middle class in the US. Private schools, bilingual, have maid, etc., etc.
>
>
> > In the US, on the other hand, about half of all stations
> have not been
> >profitable from as far back as the 50's. Too many
> stations, complicated by >the " arrival" of FM, Docket
> 80-90, and other related factors over-radioed the >US.
> >
>
> Aha! There's the problem! You are so right! Now, how to
> fix the problem. Importing Atlanta programming to six, or
> more, radio stations in Houston isn't how to fix sliding
> numbers. You have to be local, local, local. And, Dave,
> try to understand this: YOU HAVE TO BE LIVE!

The analogy I always use is Snooky Lanson and Gizelle McKenzie in the 50's TV series, "Your Hit Parade" which ran for 9 years and presented Amer4ica's hits on national TV from coast to coast.

Most things in America are homogenized and play as well in Minneapolis as in Mobile... so the AC concept that works in Atlanta with only local research will work in Houston.

Radio began as a national medium in the 20's and 30's, and hits in music and entertainment are almost entirely national... with minor variations. There is nothing wrong with having run Seinfeld in 200+ markets each week, right?
>
> Here's how to fix it:
>
> 1) Quit paying 4/5ths of your on-air budget to the morning
> show. Back off of that a bit. Take some of that money and
> beef up the other dayparts. If you want to make your
> station more than just "noise on in the background", you've
> got to be live, topical, entertaining, AND, play a boatload
> of music. Yes, Dave, you can do that.

This works on some occasions. However, if you don't pay the morning show well, it will go to the competitor. And, in many if not most formats, enertainment is not desired in all dayparts. I have done both, and each is only appropriate in specific formats and situations. In general, a large majority of listeners want two radio stations on the same frequency... fun in the morning, music the rest of the day.
>
> 2) Get out in the public. Send your promotions people out,
> during the day, where they can be seen, and get the jocks
> out there, too. They need to understand that working out
> their hitch with the station from the studio just won't cut
> it. They're going to have to get out and meet the
> listeners. Meet them at work, at the convenience store, at
> the concerts, at public service events. But, for gawd's
> sake, do it!

Some formats are not street formats. With one oldies station, we only do community events. On another "country" format we have 10 vehicles and a team of 30 street people doing van hits. However, a street presence without the best format will do nothing for you.
>
> 3) Cut back on the freakin' consultants. A consultant in
> San Diego doesn't know crap about the Houston audience, and,
> I'm sorry Dave, there isn't a budget big enough to place an
> out-of-town-consultant in town long enough to make him
> understand the local culture. You can only do that by
> living here.

A consultant brings a wide variety of situations and outcomes to the table, and can avoid costly mistakes.

As to living there, that is baloney.

My first owned station was in a country where I had lived for 6 months. #1 instantly. I recently did a station in Argentina, where we found out what the listeners wanted, and what no one local had thought of doing. Cume in 60 days, 4.2 million. Rank: #1 for 50 books. I can repeat such stories over and over... from CHR in Birmingham to AC in LA to "country" in Houston.

Good radio knowledge combined with the best radio minds will win.

A few years ago, I was called to program a start up in Karachi. I said, "I am really clueless on the culture, the language and the religious considerations." They said, "We know all that. We want someone who knows radio."

> I watched ABC-owned KXYZ & KAUM get their
> signals knocked into the dirt by KILT & KNUZ because ABC
> couldn't figure out that programming Houston stations from
> New Yawk just doesn't work.

Only one station can be #1. Some companies have a better corporate cultures for workiing in different markets. Some fail some places and not others. The same ABC has one of America's most marvelous AM's, KGO. So, probably, we can look at local management for the Houston issue... a local problem, not a national one.

> It didn't work back then....and
> it won't work today. Program locally! If you don't trust
> your program director and music director to get it right for
> the local market, then maybe, you should own a TCBY.

Or, maybe, you should stop giving the first programming position to a promising person... outside help support to new talent. And most stations, no matter how corporate, researches locally and programs locally... with the support of all the talent they can marshall.
>
>
>
> > Mexico has fewer stations per capita than the US, and
> radio,
> > via consolidation, has always maintained a higher presence
>
> > than the industry in the US.
> >
>
> Mexican consolodation is a requirement, because, there are
> darned few people, down there, who can afford to get into
> the ownership game.

Give me a break. Consolidation happened because of the way advertising is bought. Agencies buy radio packages, not individual stations. This came out of the TV model, which is national and bought in packages.

Mexico has a huge entreperneurial class. And there are hundreds of thousands of people who could buy radio staitons if they wanted them. The fact is that consolidation made radio more efficient by satisfying an advertiser need.

> > In addition, Mexico intelligently did not licence the
> > quantity of inferior signals that the US did... low power
> > directional daytimers on 1550, Class A FMs in major
> markets,
> > and such things that inhibit the ability to compete. They
> > also allowed up to 250,000 watts on AM and up to the same
> > ERP on FM so listeners get good signals.
>
> True enough! But, that's in large part to the way the
> population clusters are laid out, in Mexico. You have
> incredibly large cities, and vast expanses of desolate area.

Actually, you have the opposite. Only one huge city, two cities with over 2 million, and only 4 to 5 with over a million.

Mexico has about about six times the percentage of rural population than the US does, and this is where the poverty is.

> Those signals have to go far. You don't have a lot of
> small towns with the kind of business activity that would
> support a small station, as was the case, here, in the US.

Again, wrong. Small market radio is vibrant in Mexico. Just get a copy of Medios Publicitarios Mexicanos and you will see the quantity of local staitons in towns of under 20,000. This includes several dozen in indigenous langauges.

Only the big city stations are high power. The local AMs and Class A FMs are in the smaller towns.

In fact, the model is very much like the US. There is very little listening to distant signals from out of market. The 250 kw station in Mexico City has that power to cover, interference free, the large metro... not other cities and states.

> Let's talk Mexico, and Dominican Republic, and Tibet, if you
> want to. You're comparing apples to oranges, and you're
> still coming up with a half-baked fruit salad.

Only because your assumptions, based on gut, are not accurate, whether about Mexico, morning shows or music. You sound a great deal like the jock who will not shut up, despite the format of the station and the daypart: the ego says talk, while the reality of the listener says "no."
>
 
> >
> > I have done research myself in the US. I have used
> research
> > as part of work in other countries. Simple as that.
> >
>
> Now you are starting to sound like Tom Cruise: "I have
> studied psychology, I know the history of psychology, you
> don't!"

OK, ignore the truth.
>
>
> > > You keep moving the goal-posts each time you are
> > > confronted with a very reasoned response.
> >
> > Read again. I have done most of my research in ethnic US
> > markets (thus the reference to 80,000,000 persons... the
> > combined Black and Hispanic US population)
> >
>
> Like I said, you keep shifting the goal-posts. Your earlier
> reference was not 80 million polled as you have just stated
> above but rather it was 40 million polled.
>
> Do you not think doubling your polled sample size is a bit
> of hyperbole just to make your point?

My first reference was to Hispanics only, and the second to the ethnic population of Blacks and Hispanics. Together, 80 million. Many Hispanic appeal formats also appeal to Blacks. And vice versa.
>
> Good day sir, my points still stand.
>

You did not make any.
 
> >
> > Good day sir, my points still stand.
> >
>
> You did not make any.
>


If anyone ever questions why radio in the USA is dead they need look no further than David's comment.

radiodial
 
Re: Radio is not dead.

> > >
> > > Good day sir, my points still stand.
> > >
> >
> > You did not make any.
> >
>
>
> If anyone ever questions why radio in the USA is dead they
> need look no further than David's comment.

Facts:

Radio reaches nearly 95% of all Americans each week.
Individual usage per week is within an hour of the level of 1950.
Satellite has acheived less than a 0.3 share of listening nationally.
Radio has held very well against a wide range of other leisure activities.
More radio formats are avaialble than any time in US history.
Radio has a higher share of advertising revenue than ever since the pre-tv days.
Radio is better than ever in finding out what large groups of listeners want to hear and providing it.
Radio ha smore of an image problem than a listening problem.
Advertisers, not radio, are responsible for declines in 12-17 and 55+ listening.

Fiction:
Radio is dead in the USA.
 
Re: Lack of localism, not voicetracking is the problem

> >
> ......one of the best examples of radio automation in the
> 70's is probably that of KIOC "k106" (Adult Contemporary)
> through the early 80's; seemed that shame was not a part of
> that operaton at all: at musical stopsets of various
> intervals, or at times between commercials during spotloads,
> the same male voice would attempt to give the listener the
> correct time, for example, "10:25 at k106", at any time in
> a 24-hour period.......
>

Another is XEROK (X-Rock 80) in El Paso. Because they were licensed in Mexico, and had no Mexican Programming (with the exception of when the Mexican President wanted to speak), to skirt the laws, they pre-recorded all their shows a day in advance and turned around and aired them the next day. And, they even had phoners who would call and leave messages and they would get played back on the air as well. It was done very successfully. They did that the first few years. Eventually they went live, but it was fairly undectable. And, it was one of the most listened to stations ever, simply because they had in upwards of 150,000 watts on the AM Band.

Personally, I think live and local in all time periods (except overnights), is the way to go. I realize that some programmers hands are tied by corporations, who are pushing for syndicated shows, satellite, and voice tracking. The one thing about VT'ing and such in the 70's & 80's, even though some of the programming was voicetracked, it was still done by LOCAL talent. A lot of big corporation voicetracking is done by people in other markets, and that is what stinks. In smaller markets, I can justify a little more, but I remember hearing that KOST/Los Angeles was having their middays VT'ed by a jock in Portland, Oregon. I don't think that is the case anymore, but to even go there to begin with is a joke. In a city of 10,000,000 people, you think they could find someone talented enough to do middays. I still believe that a great local jock can sell your station better than your music, imaging, and promotions. Sure it takes the whole package, but stations used to build their promotions around the talent. Nowadays, you're lucky if more than the morning show even gets promoted.

I don't think voicetracking is killing radio. I think the lack of localism is. That is what the FCC needs to fix. It is still the public's airwaves, no matter who holds the license. The FCC needs to step in make radio stations provide local programming. There are 24 hours in a day. I don't think I'm asking for too much by saying the FCC needs to make stations provide at least 12 hours of localized programming a day. I don't care if it's voicetracked or not. Live is better. I do believe phoners and listener interaction makes for better radio, but it also should not be the main focus. I want to hear a few callers every now and then, but too many callers is like too much chocolate, after awhile, it just makes you nautious.

That is just my take on the issue. It's not the voicetracking. It's the lack of localism. <P ID="signature">______________
"I Believe In The Power Of Love."
Luther Vandross 1951-2005</P>
 
Re: Gut programming is arrogant

> Only because your assumptions, based on gut, are not
> accurate, whether about Mexico, morning shows or music. You
> sound a great deal like the jock who will not shut up,
> despite the format of the station and the daypart: the ego
> says talk, while the reality of the listener says "no."
> >
>

Dave, you're the one putting forth the assumptions! (By the way, I'm having a helluva a good time with this!) I didn't say, "Program with your gut!" I said, use it. Make it PART of what you do. You like facts, don't you, Dave? Well, here's one for you: The most researched car ever built, was the Edsel. It arrived in September of 1957 amid hoots and catcalls. The problem wasn't that it was a bad car. It was, certainly no worse than any other, on the road at the time. The problem was, it was ahead of its time. Compare a '58 Edsel with a '69 Pontiac. They're the same car....just ten years apart. The Edsel vanished. The '69 Pontiac sold upwards of a million and a half units for the model year. The public was, finally, ready for it.

I'm just telling you that, for all your research and statistics, YOU are the arrogant one. You fail to allow for the "human side" of producing good radio, and you fail to allow for the human side of listening to radio. To you, every damned thing is a number, a habit, a Zip Code, an age, an ethnicity, a culture, a gender, an occupation, a language, and so on. You have to understand that, you are dealing with humans! Humans have emotions, and if you don't touch those emotions with your programming, and get them WHERE THEY LIVE, you'll lose them, out of frustration, more than anything else. Exhibit A: XM & Sirius. More specifically, you fail to acknowledge that one size does NOT fit all. Radio is in trouble....big trouble. It will recover. It'll recover, soon, and for the better. But, I hate to tell you, it won't be at the hands of your line of thinking.

One more thing....am I the jock who wouldn't shut up? No! I was the jock who believed in entertaining, instead of regurgitating the same half-dozen stupid liner cards, over and over again. Branding, branding, branding! It's all well and good, save for one little glitch: What if no one's listening?

You talk about your accomplishments. Here's one of mine: Houston's longest TSL over a six-year period. I, consistently, had the station's highest numbers. Solid cumes, always. And, you can be sure, I didn't do it single-handedly. I was just part of what was one of Houston radio history's best talent teams, and we behaved like a team. We were family as a staff, and we treated our listeners as though they were family. Ultimately, no one beat us. We beat ourselves with the arrival of the new management, who did it your way.
 
Re: Gut programming is arrogant

> Dave, you're the one putting forth the assumptions! (By the
> way, I'm having a helluva a good time with this!)

Me, too. I hope the moderators and the lurkers do not think we are about to go postal at each other.

> I didn't
> say, "Program with your gut!" I said, use it. Make it PART
> of what you do.

OK, I misunderstood. I have trouble with both extremes, the PD who is all gut and no listener input,a nd the one who is pure nerd material.

> You like facts, don't you, Dave?

Yes, I find that people who are oblivious to them generally lose. Take a station that does consult the listener, and add good programming skills, good backup resources in the company (national PD, consultant, whatever) and some creative promotion and you win. Station that does all the rest but does not talk to the listener is very beatable. I love that kind of station!

> Well,
> here's one for you: The most researched car ever built, was
> the Edsel.

I believe that is urban legend. There was a lot of CYA on it afterwards, blaming research, top execs, the Ford brand, etc. The fact was that the car was too extremely styled and offered no mechanical innovation that was perceived as valuable.

> I'm just telling you that, for all your research and
> statistics, YOU are the arrogant one. You fail to allow for
> the "human side" of producing good radio, and you fail to
> allow for the human side of listening to radio.

If properly done, research is just getting impressions from listeners in a more formal fashion, so one can be sure that the "truths" are based on broad preferences, not just a narrow segment or one or two loudmouths.

One of the major problems is that listeners have great difficultiy expressing likes and dislikes unless you have them listen and score real programming. This technique, which comes out of Burking TV spots, is very effective as it both shows what listeners like and dislike, but also shows the relative scores on each so one can benchmark. Verbal descriptions are not reliable when listeners describe intangibles, but actions are. Nothing is better than seing and observing a listener using radio with real time product.

> To you,
> every damned thing is a number, a habit, a Zip Code, an age,
> an ethnicity, a culture, a gender, an occupation, a
> language, and so on.

Radio is a business. Sales is dependent on Arbitron unless one is in a niche format or a tiny market. Arbitron is based on approximating a proportional sample of each market. Programming, thus, must obey the same metrics or it can not be successful in most instances.

> You have to understand that, you are
> dealing with humans! Humans have emotions, and if you don't
> touch those emotions with your programming, and get them
> WHERE THEY LIVE, you'll lose them, out of frustration, more
> than anything else.

I've been trying to explain that I have done more successful morning shows than most PDs and did what may be the original 24/7 "morning shows all day" format in a top 15 market... most dayparts using talent we trained. I do not negate talent. I just know that there is not a lot of talent, and most stations can not afford it... and there is a limited listener base for personality outside of mornings, too. Many listeners want all music!

> Exhibit A: XM & Sirius. More
> specifically, you fail to acknowledge that one size does NOT
> fit all. Radio is in trouble....big trouble. It will
> recover. It'll recover, soon, and for the better. But, I
> hate to tell you, it won't be at the hands of your line of
> thinking.

I am having no trouble. The people I work with are having no troble. We have some of the highest profile air talent in the country, do no vice tracking and are generally the top tier TSL leaders in our markets.

Some sectors of radio have problems, but the big sectors are ones radio has chosen not to program to: 12-17 and 55+. The listening in other areas is pretty good, all things considered. And the billings are excellent.

One size does not fit all... in fact, this is how, before I was even 21, I was able to program 9 different stations in one market.

XM and Sirius need over 18 million subscribers to approach a rating of 0.25 in the US. It's along haul, and not, in many cases, at radio's expense.
>
> One more thing....am I the jock who wouldn't shut up? No!
> I was the jock who believed in entertaining, instead of
> regurgitating the same half-dozen stupid liner cards, over
> and over again. Branding, branding, branding! It's all
> well and good, save for one little glitch: What if no one's
> listening?

Worse, what if they don't write it down.

And I frequently hear, whether it is classic rock or classic country, hip hop or smooth jazz (without even going into ethnic audiences) listeners who essentially ask, "why don't they shut up and play more music?" I seldom hear, even on deep one on one lifestyle probing, requests for entertainment outside of mornings.
>
> You talk about your accomplishments. Here's one of mine:
> Houston's longest TSL over a six-year period. I,
> consistently, had the station's highest numbers. Solid
> cumes, always. And, you can be sure, I didn't do it
> single-handedly. I was just part of what was one of Houston
> radio history's best talent teams, and we behaved like a
> team. We were family as a staff, and we treated our
> listeners as though they were family. Ultimately, no one
> beat us. We beat ourselves with the arrival of the new
> management, who did it your way.

Good for you. I am guessing this was a morning show. Was it?

In the last 7 years, the TSL leader among stations with a 1 share or better in Houston in 85% of the books has been KLTN, and the rest of the time KMJQ with KLTN a close second. KLTN uses every one of the techniques I describe. We are talking about around 30 consecutive books.
 
Re: Voice Tracking has been around for 40+ years.

> > David, you are correct. Unfortunately, while the
> technology
> > changed and the effect is a positive one versus the old
> type
> > of programming (Bill Drake comes to mind), the results are
>
> > the same - a lifeless station is often the result. No
> > personality, as if someone were just reading the artist
> and
> > title. In some ways, there is no difference from the 60s
> > and 70s automation as far as listening is concerned.
> > Someone in a remote city is programming a station that I
> am
> > listening to in my city, and they haven't a clue.
> >
>
> Well done, vt'ing is indistinguishable from live. I did a
> major market (#13) station that was totally automated on one
> occasion, and it was #1 in a large field of stations within
> 22 days of going on the air. Nobody could distinguish the
> fact it was tracked... sometimes we would tell listeners,
> and they 1) were surprised and, 2) did not care. We had the
> jocks do tracks and then they spent most of th etime on the
> street doing promotions.
>

Unfortunately David you are aboslutely right here.

I view VT'ing in the same manner as outsourcing--with a venomous hatred.

I'm glad somebody posted about this corporate issue because that's what it is.
It does cut costs and its ethical implications are in the eye of the beholder. I think it's total crap.
Most of you have no problem with this practice and see it as everyday business.
I've hated VT'ing ever since it came into practice.

I happen to be in that 2 percent margin that can tell when shows are live and local and when they're VT'd. It's just something I can detect.
A lot of people wouldn't know the difference unless you told them.

I want the DJ's I'm listening to the have to drive in the same terrible crap traffic I drive in every day. Not LA or Denver's horrible traffic, but Houston's and only Houston's. Not once a month, but every day.
That's local. I'm not happy unless I'm sure that the people I'm listening to are in my city.
(This of course excludes syndicated shows like Howard Stern that aren't made to sound local.)

I understand why this is a common institution, but I don't agree with it.
 
Re: Radio is not dead.

> > > >
> > > > Good day sir, my points still stand.
> > > >
> > >
> > > You did not make any.
> > >
> >
> >
> > If anyone ever questions why radio in the USA is dead they
>
> > need look no further than David's comment.
>
> Facts:
>
> Radio reaches nearly 95% of all Americans each week.
> Individual usage per week is within an hour of the level of
> 1950.
> Satellite has acheived less than a 0.3 share of listening
> nationally.
> Radio has held very well against a wide range of other
> leisure activities.
> More radio formats are avaialble than any time in US
> history.
> Radio has a higher share of advertising revenue than ever
> since the pre-tv days.
> Radio is better than ever in finding out what large groups
> of listeners want to hear and providing it.
> Radio ha smore of an image problem than a listening problem.
>
> Advertisers, not radio, are responsible for declines in
> 12-17 and 55+ listening.
>
> Fiction:
> Radio is dead in the USA.
>

So, because "radio" has a near monopoly on the airwaves, they can program to the lowest common denominator - hence the crap that is on the terrestial airwaves now. No, more and more stations will continue to lose money until one or two major entities implode.

Then we can go to your model of yanking about half the licenses in the U.S. and distributing the remaining ones to local broadcasters, not some media conglomerate.
 
Re: Gut programming is arrogant

> >
> > Dave, slow down, here! We're not talking about foreign
> > countries! We're talking about Houston, Dallas, San
> > Antonio, Birmingham, Des Moines, etc.
>
> I don't see why looking at an even broader picture to be
> harmful.


Because you cannot do that.... It *is* harmful! You CANNOT extrapolate one data set to other data set when those two data sets are NOT the same! Please sir, take a elementary course in statistics.

Your results are contaminated.


>I was told that looking at subsets was so, so I
> expanded the horizon to include noth just the US but the
> world. As I said, certain things are universal.
>


Yes, you can look at subsets of the SAME data set but you cannot extrapolate that data set unto a different data set not belonging to the original data set. The USA is NOT a superset of Mexico. The USA is a COMPLETELY different data set. Please sir, take a elementary course in statistics.

Your results are contaminated.

You are exactly the perfect example of why statistics are dangerous in the hands of those who do not understand statistics or their proper use.

Quite simply you are coming across to me as very mathematically inept.

Your posts, in my view, are now contaminated... You pretty much say and fudge whatever you want just to make your argument.

Good day.
 
Re: Gut programming is arrogant

> Good for you. I am guessing this was a morning show. Was it?
>

Nope....middays, a hard nut to crack for a country station, when you're up against the likes of a Sunny.

>
> In the last 7 years, the TSL leader among stations with a 1
> share or better in Houston in 85% of the books has been
> KLTN, and the rest of the time KMJQ with KLTN a close
> second.

Let's be clear, Dave...we're talking English-speaking stations. At last check, that was still the predominant language for the USA. We, during that time, made the midday show, somewhat interactive. We allowed people to call in and "chat". Bits were very short, but, had real entertainment value. Instead of passive listeners, we managed to cultivate a loyal hoard of active listeners. Advertisers loved it.

>
>KLTN uses every one of the techniques I describe. We are talking about around >30 consecutive books.
>

Regarding the Edsel...you're right about no revolutionary technology. Where you (once again) missed the point, was in styling. The styling was revolutionary. No tailfins in an age of tailfins, vertical grille in an age of horizontal grilles, etc. It was ahead of its time. This would've been an enjoyable part of our, long-standing debate, had it not been for the fact that your facts (and numbers) clouded your understanding of what really happened with the Edsel.

I've had a blast with this. It's been an invigorating couple of days, but, I have a business I have to run. If you have time, go back and re-read the posts from the likes of radiodial, radiomojo1, slaterradio and the others. They all have important, valuable things to say about the state of radio today. I'm proud to be sharing this thread with these passionate, and obviously, intelligent people. In the end, they're the ones who'll change things, or, force things to change. Those who don't learn from history.......

Have a great day, gang!
 
Re: Gut programming is arrogant

> >
> > I don't see why looking at an even broader picture to be
> > harmful.
>
>
> Because you cannot do that.... It *is* harmful! You CANNOT
> extrapolate one data set to other data set when those two
> data sets are NOT the same! Please sir, take a elementary
> course in statistics.

We are taling about looking at interpretatins, not combining data sets.

I am simply suggesting, based on data from the US, from subsets in the US, and from data I have seen from here to Pakistan, that the idea that radio is dead is much exaggerated because listeners do not say that. Critics say that.
>
> Your results are contaminated.
>

You don't know the usage of the term "contaminated" in research.
>
> Yes, you can look at subsets of the SAME data set but you
> cannot extrapolate that data set unto a different data set
> not belonging to the original data set.

Extrapolation is the finding of y when you have x and z, when y is contained in either or both. You can not extrapolate¨"unto" another data set. You extrapolate FROM a data set, or from multiple data sets containing the data to be extracted.

A subset is a break or, simply, a small part of a data collection, generally based on a specific recruit specification. Of all matress users, those who prefer firm matresses constitute a subset.

> The USA is NOT a
> superset of Mexico.

Mexico and the USA are subsets of the World, with a capital W. Nowhere in the world, except where the government controls all media, is there significant dissatisfaction with radio. That is my point.

>The USA is a COMPLETELY different data
> set. Please sir, take a elementary course in statistics.

I never said anything differently...
>
> Your results are contaminated.

You do not have any idea what the terms mean.
>
> You are exactly the perfect example of why statistics are
> dangerous in the hands of those who do not understand
> statistics or their proper use.

I have written the software for radio ratings companies. I design studies. Etc.
>
> Quite simply you are coming across to me as very
> mathematically inept.

You are mis-using terms, so that would be expected.
>
> Your posts, in my view, are now contaminated... You pretty
> much say and fudge whatever you want just to make your
> argument.

Ask Dr. Ed Cohen at Arbitron about my credentials... give me your name, and I will check out yours.

The point is that, no matter how many groups of listeners (subsets of "humanity") I poll myself or look at, I do not find evidence of the death of radio. Some issues arrise, in certain demos. But there is no crisis and no vast or monolithic switch elsewhere.
 
Re: Gut programming is arrogant

> >
> > In the last 7 years, the TSL leader among stations with a
> 1
> > share or better in Houston in 85% of the books has been
> > KLTN, and the rest of the time KMJQ with KLTN a close
> > second.
>
> Let's be clear, Dave...we're talking English-speaking
> stations. At last check, that was still the predominant
> language for the USA.

Those shares are part of the 100 total shares in the market. Ratings are market based, not ethnicity or language based. Each sub-group is measured proportionally. KLTN is a Houston station. So is KMJQ.

> We, during that time, made the midday
> show, somewhat interactive. We allowed people to call in
> and "chat". Bits were very short, but, had real
> entertainment value. Instead of passive listeners, we
> managed to cultivate a loyal hoard of active listeners.
> Advertisers loved it.

Sounds like some things I have also done. The advertiser point is excellent, as content driven radio gets listened to, as opposed to heard.
>
> >
> >KLTN uses every one of the techniques I describe. We are
> talking about around >30 consecutive books.
> >
>
> Regarding the Edsel...you're right about no revolutionary
> technology. Where you (once again) missed the point, was in
> styling. The styling was revolutionary.

Not all cars had fins... a number of lines, such as the Studebaker and Hudson, had no fins at the time. And everyone byt Chrysler had tubular or ornate straight line tails, not fins like the 57 Chrysler products.

What the Edsel was was ugly by current standards. I'll bet a Lexus from today would be ugly if dropped, with no chrome, into 1957.

> No tailfins in an
> age of tailfins, vertical grille in an age of horizontal
> grilles, etc. It was ahead of its time.

No, it was ugly. They are still ugly today. Funny, endearing, but still ugly.

> This would've been
> an enjoyable part of our, long-standing debate, had it not
> been for the fact that your facts (and numbers) clouded your
> understanding of what really happened with the Edsel.

Well, I was at an unveiling of the car... I was so into cars I could tell brands by the sound of the starter mechanism... and everyone simply found it ugly. To say it was ahead of its time is, I think, more thecoincidence that some of the design elements became popular a decade or so later. This is very common in industrial and product design. But a full design is not component based, but, like a radio station, mood or overall impression based.

I just don't think the analogy is appropriate and don't believe the car was ahead of its time. It was wrong for the mid 50's.
>
> I've had a blast with this. It's been an invigorating
> couple of days, but, I have a business I have to run. If
> you have time, go back and re-read the posts from the likes
> of radiodial, radiomojo1, slaterradio and the others. They
> all have important, valuable things to say about the state
> of radio today. I'm proud to be sharing this thread with
> these passionate, and obviously, intelligent people. In the
> end, they're the ones who'll change things, or, force things
> to change. Those who don't learn from history.......

Unfortunately, some of those posts demonstrate insular mentalities, while much is being done in radio outside the US, especially today, that is better than American radio in general. Instead of learning from it, we say (incorrectly) that it is irrelevant.
>
> Have a great day, gang!
>

You, too.
 
Re: Gut programming is arrogant

> >
> > Your results are contaminated.
> >
>
> You don't know the usage of the term "contaminated" in
> research.
>


Of course I don't if YOU say so.



> > Yes, you can look at subsets of the SAME data set but you
> > cannot extrapolate that data set unto a different data set
> > not belonging to the original data set.
>
> Extrapolation is the finding of y when you have x and z,
> when y is contained in either or both. You can not
> extrapolate¨"unto" another data set. You extrapolate FROM a
> data set, or from multiple data sets containing the data to
> be extracted.
>


You are 100% INCORRECT. Your explanation of extrapolation is dead
wrong. Extrapolation is using a data set to find a value OUTSIDE of
that data set. You just stated that it is to find a value within the
data set. You sir, have confused extrapolation with interpolation.

What I have told you from the start and it still holds true, and will
always hold true, is that you cannot extrapolate from one data set to
another unrelated data set.

That is what you are attempting to do and your resultant results are
incorrect because your method is wrong, hence, your results are
contaminated - no value whatsoever.

But I do thank you for giving me some insight as to why radio is
gasping for air and management is running around clueless as to
the cause.
 
Re: Gut programming is arrogant

> >
> > Extrapolation is the finding of y when you have x and z,
> > when y is contained in either or both. You can not
> > extrapolate¨"unto" another data set. You extrapolate FROM
> a
> > data set, or from multiple data sets containing the data
> to
> > be extracted.
> >
>
>
> You are 100% INCORRECT. Your explanation of extrapolation
> is dead
> wrong. Extrapolation is using a data set to find a value
> OUTSIDE of
> that data set. You just stated that it is to find a value
> within the
> data set. You sir, have confused extrapolation with
> interpolation.

There are two definitions of "extrapolation" as follows...

1. vti infer: to use known facts as the starting point from which to draw inferences or draw conclusions about something unknown
If we extrapolate from the data, we can come up with a reasonable prediction.

2. vt mathematics estimate a value: to estimate a value that falls outside a range of known values, for example, by extending a curve on a graph

In research, the first is the appropriate or more useful definition as it takes known data and uses it to draw a relationship based conclusion. This is because we have the data, but need to know information based on a portion of it where that data is not provided directly.

For example, if you are logging at intervals the speed of an object in motion, and need a read between intervals, you will extrapolate the value by adding the first and second real reads and averaging to get the extrapolated value.

In radio, we generally hear "extrapolation" in the context of using trending data to get individula month data. In this case, we multiply the most recent piece of data by three and subtract the two known values to get the extrap of the most current month. In other words, as I said, using two known variables to get a third unknown one based on a valid assumption.
>
> What I have told you from the start and it still holds true,
> and will
> always hold true, is that you cannot extrapolate from one
> data set to
> another unrelated data set.

And I am not doing that. I am looking at individual findings, and seing the equivalent of "nowhere in the world do people believe there is a purple sunrise so there is evidence that there are no purple sunrises."

Same thing. In the US, whether the listeners be non-Hispanic white, Black or Hispanic, there is no indication of "radio being dead." This is complemented by the finding in other nations that radio is not dead.
>
> That is what you are attempting to do and your resultant
> results are
> incorrect because your method is wrong, hence, your results
> are
> contaminated - no value whatsoever.

You are assuming that I am combining data. I am simply laying out many sets and discovering that all have in common the finding that radio is not dead.

I could combine data, were we to wish to find out a global perspective. As long as the recruit methods, and other factors, were consistent, and weighting was don by whatever view one desires, such data is combinable. But, since no one except shortwave stations tries to appeal to a simultaneous global audience, this would not be very useful.

On the other hand, if we find that similary conclusions are reaced in validly done projects in many places, that is a finding, irrespective of methodology.
>
> But I do thank you for giving me some insight as to why
> radio is
> gasping for air and management is running around clueless as
> to
> the cause.

The funny thing is that you are blaming me, when I do not have this problem. Blame the folks at stations with 4 hours TSL. I cited a Houston exoample of 7 years of 10 hour plus market leading TSL. We have similar usage in more than a dozen markets, all domestic.
 
Re: Radio is not dead.

>
> So, because "radio" has a near monopoly on the airwaves,
> they can program to the lowest common denominator - hence
> the crap that is on the terrestial airwaves now. No, more
> and more stations will continue to lose money until one or
> two major entities implode.

A monopoly is a controlling share. No radio company has such. I know you said " near" in your statement, but the only near monopoly situations are in cases where the FCC market model broke down... and they are isolated, like Minot, ND.

Today, far fewer stations lose money than ever before since the 50's because of consolidation. Consolidation was the product of excessive stations and inadequate revenue, not of proigramming, greed or anything else.

The stations that still lose money are the crappy facilities and the small market stations where 80-90 dropped too many facilities in tiny population centers.
>
> Then we can go to your model of yanking about half the
> licenses in the U.S. and distributing the remaining ones to
> local broadcasters, not some media conglomerate.

I never suggested yanking licences. I said that the current state of radio is a direct result of too many stations and, even more, too many bad signals. Look at Washington DC... not one AM covers the entire market. Or San Francisco, where not one FM does.

Single station ownership per market makes everyone go after the big formats. Cosolidation allows clusters to create an array that is salable and may have some low rated, but complementary signals.

No larger radio group is likely to implode today, as most financed via equity, not debt. To implode, they would have to start losing money on a massive scale, something they are not doing.
 
Re: Voice Tracking has been around for 40+ years.

> > David, you are correct. Unfortunately, while the
> technology
> > changed and the effect is a positive one versus the old
> type
> > of programming (Bill Drake comes to mind), the results are
>
> > the same - a lifeless station is often the result. No
> > personality, as if someone were just reading the artist
> and
> > title. In some ways, there is no difference from the 60s
> > and 70s automation as far as listening is concerned.
> > Someone in a remote city is programming a station that I
> am
> > listening to in my city, and they haven't a clue.
> >
>
> Well done, vt'ing is indistinguishable from live. I did a
> major market (#13) station that was totally automated on one
> occasion, and it was #1 in a large field of stations within
> 22 days of going on the air. Nobody could distinguish the
> fact it was tracked... sometimes we would tell listeners,
> and they 1) were surprised and, 2) did not care. We had the
> jocks do tracks and then they spent most of th etime on the
> street doing promotions.
>

Very true. We all have to remember lots of the people who post on these boards are absolutely obsessed with radio. We follow this stuff more closely and care more. The average listener really wound't care. It is mostly about the music.<P ID="signature">______________
Kevin</P>
 
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