WARM Back On???

[jeffwoehrle]

Jack,

Based on your post, I feel I should modify a statement I made above regarding management decisions. Cutting loose Hannity dealt a death blow to WARM. Had WARM been an FM station, it simply could have moved on to something else. As discussed, if an AM can't grab top five ratings in this size market, it has about zero chance of covering its nut. Meaning, there are plenty of AM stations that ARE NOT VIABLE. Have not been for years and have little chance of ever becoming viable.

A couple hundred successful AM stations nationwide does not mean a movement is afoot. Four thousand or so AM stations that are not successful does. The only reason AM still exists is because FM is still around to kick in the expenses necessary to keep the lackluster band alive.

The question remains: How long are operators supposed to take good money made by their FM stations and plow it back into the ground keeping their AMs alive? How long?

WARM's near-darkness was a watershed moment. It allowed some light to be cast on a situation that has been ignored forever. AM has become a leech on the butt of successful broadcasters. I wait for the day when those broadcasters finally become tired of the blood loss, and do something about it.

Based on the fact that WARM was dragged back out of the grave, I guess that day of reckoning has not yet arrived.

 

[mrwattson]

Jeff,

Not being in radio like you guys, (I am getting an education), I wonder why not just run talk in mono and carry it on FM? Why don't companies do that? (Remember Philly's WWDB?)

The northeast PA market is unusual (I think) in the fact that it runs talk on FM. The fact that WILK also has 3 low power AM stations simulcasting their signal makes them unbeatable.

I know that AM signals aren't what they used to be, but in most markets and with their signal and the fact that they are so low on the AM band, WARM should be like WHP in Harrisburg.

This might not make sense, but I wonder why WILK didn't just buy WARM and simulcast. Is it because it doesn't make economic sense or such disrepair? They bought 3 low power AM stations, why not just one powerhouse AM?

I wasn't able to follow what you were saying, Jack, on the last part of your post, not being in the know like you guys. Sorry.

 

[jeffwoehrle]

Mrwattson,

I think the hurdle for WARM is the costs required to bring it back to where it once was (and should be) from a technical angle. Couple that with ongoing costs of maintaining that facility and it's a big load to carry. The WILK network is arguably equal in complexity and costs, but it's already established on those stations and would be hard to justify switching the whole shebang to WARM. Problem then becomes what to do with the WILK stations after the switch. Sell them? Then you've made a competitor for yourself. Keep them? Then you've just (roughly) doubled your costs from what you had before.

(Disclaimer: For a short time I leased my former facility @ 960 in Mount Pocono to the WILK Network.)

It is interesting that between the W-B/Scranton market and Lehigh Valley, you have two markets that are 'under-radioed' in that there are comparatively few B FMs for the population. As a result, at least a couple of the big FMs usually grab shares of ten or better and there is usually an AM station (or network of them) doing well with talk. I would imagine that another big stick added to either market could probably program talk and demolish the AM competition in the format.

 

[BaltimoreJack]

If you look at some of the efforts in larger markets you will find that even talk..the last great bastion of AM success is slowly moving over to FM. The Pittsburgh market is instructive here. There, despite the long-time power of KDKA..you have Rush running on an FM. Entercom was seeing the writing on the wall and wisely began to transfer listeners from AM over to FM. One item that group broadcasters often overlook is the simple act of simulcasting a popular FM format on a poorly used AM station. IMHO..Citadel would have been miles ahead to simply run Magic's signal on WARM, and then make some good side cash by running the Phillies or Yankees on 590 during ball season. It makes more sense than expiramenting with the "format of the month club". Citadel in Binghamton has a similar problem with it's 1360 signal. During the day, the signal does very well running north of the city and does well within upper Broome & all of Chenango counties. At night, it can barely be heard across the street from it's own tower. 1360 had a long history as a country station. Citadel has a hugely popular FM country station there...WHWK. So why not just simulcast that signal on AM? Instead..since Citadel has owned the property..if that station's had one format..it's had a dozen. Granted, you shouldn't be pouring lots of good money after bad, but it's a solution. In the long run, many of these cost-heavy AMs that produce no revenue, should go dark. It would help clear up the band, making reception of other stations that MIGHT be successful a better deal. I agree with you Jeff, that letting WARM rise once more from the ashes only to be a drain on scare cash supplies.

Also..I am a stock holder in Citadel. As a stock holder, the waste of scare resources on a now-worthless station like WARM is very poor management. Overall, Citadel has been poorly managed. How Farid has been allowed to stay at the helm of a company when it's stock price goes from $68 in 1999 to about 8 cents a share on Friday is baffling. But...under the heading of "better late than never"...it makes far more sense to either cheaply sell, or shut down AM stations that do nothing but make bills.

 

[jeffwoehrle]

Jack,

When I put WPMR-FM on the air, I ran the same format on 960 for almost a year. (Actually, WPMR's format started on AM before the FM was up and running.) The feedback was positive. Most notable were the crews for PPL. Their trucks (at least at the time) only had AM radios. They consistently mentioned that they never used the radios before WPMR's AOR format was simulcast on 960.

Such a move was certainly a cost savings (and a necessity for me as I only had one air studio starting out). As you mentioned, our local ballgame stuff came later and was a nice injection of cash with an easy sell. After the game was over, right back to simulcast of the FM at practically no additional cost.

I agree that Citadel's unearthing of WARM is irresponsible and a waste of what must surely be scarce cash. It's worth noting that every dollar spent on WARM's sinking ship is one less dollar to avoid laying someone off. Not exactly a smart move in today's financial environment.

 

[jondavidvox]

(So....Hancock, wanna go and prepare a banquet for these young turks? Crow under glass, perhaps?)

I'm curious....Management there is doing a good job, huh? Really? AM Radio is dead, right? OK, help me understand...

WILK-AM, (with an 8.3 12+ Jeeze!) is actually just lucky there's no News/Talk on FM?

If S/W-B Radio management is so good, why is that? After all, FM News/Talk is catching fire everywhere, and yet there are 3 Classic Hits FMs, with 3 different owners each barely pulling a 1.5 share....?!?

Look, WARM, or any other S/W-B AM Radio station could win any time its management chose to. They either don't care, or they just don't know how. Which is it?

Beware of writing off sleeping giants.

J-D
WRS

 

[jeffwoehrle]

JD,

I guess your malady is just not seeing the forest for the trees.

Let me try to help you understand.

10,000 stations. Roughly 5000 AM and 5000 FM. 90% or better of the top-rated stations are FM. Gee, I guess 'management' is choosing to keep all those AMs down for shyts and giggles.

There is not a grand conspiracy. AM is inferior. The listening public has known that ever since FM began its upswing. And, shockingly!, the ratings reflect what damn near everyone except you seem to realize.

Allowing AMs to leech off of the profits (if not the programming) of FM proves one thing: FM is the moneymaker.

Now, in good times, it may satisfy the twisted priorities of some folks to subsidize a dying band because they feel the new alien spaceships that have yet to land on Earth only have AM radios, and it just makes sense to wait it out. But the times, alas, ain't good no more. Given the choice of keeping WARM on expensive life support (which, due to its 'sleeping giant' status, it quite costly), or laying off more employees, I kind of lean toward keeping folks employed. But hey, that's just me and my pesky realism.

Might want to put your banquet on hold. Kind of like WARM's funeral is on hold.

;D

 

[jondavidvox]

Jeff....

The Best Radio Wins. Whether it's on AM, FM, or even XM....No BM!

I'll be you would say, for example, that there's not a chance that Small Time Burgers could ever compete with, and defeat McDonalds, right? After all, many have tried....Burger King, Wendys, Jack In The Box, Hardees, Carls Junior....And I suppose, considering the "Billions & Billions Sold", the 100,000 stores, you might be able to make a good argument. In defining the game that way....you'll lose, and the best part, you have all your excuses for failure built in. No point in even trying, really....

However....Small Time Burgers would then be playing McDonalds game. Your mistake is framing the fight for your own failure. Small Time Burgers doesn't have to beat McDonalds as its defined above. It only has to beat that McDonalds over there....The one on the corner. That one. Then you pick another one. And another, and another....One at a time. How? By being more agile. By outserving, outperforming, outflanking them every time they turn around.

The reason Burger King, Wendys, Jack In The Box, Hardees, Carls Junior are all behind, is they're trying to compete with McDonalds by trying to be a better McDonalds instead of serving better food.

Regardless of what you read in the trades and/or the corporate statements of Radio Companies attempting to cover up their mistakes, ALL RADIO IS LOCAL. But Corporate Radio Management simply cannot cope with local anything. It gives up too much power to local managers. And that is their fatal flaw. The hole in their doctrine. Their ego-driven, money chasing, creativity crushing, Listener forsaking mess. It only "works" if everyone plays the same game....And they DO!!

It's your opening to defeat them....And the best part, they cannot react. You're too small, and everyone in the (Corporate Radio) business knows it....But not the actual audience. The Listeners...Do radio for them, and they will listen.

(BTW, the Corporations know it too. I'll bet that WARM isn't even for sale. And if it was, it would be at an astronomical price only a huge corporation could pay. You beginning to see the Forest for the Trees?)

But you buy into the current corporate management myth...predicated on corporation stock price instead of real station earnings.

Radio (WARM leading the way) is losing because for the last 20 years, they have pursued the wrong audience. Wall Street, instead of Main Street.

Who made that decision?

J-D
WRS

 

[joep]

The reason Burger King, Wendys, Jack In The Box, Hardees, Carls Junior are all behind, is they're trying to compete with McDonalds by trying to be a better McDonalds instead of serving better food.

Good point, Jon. Try opening a Pizza Hut in downtown Old Forge.

 

[jeffwoehrle]

Jeff....

The Best Radio Wins. Whether it's on AM, FM, or even XM....No BM!

I'll be you would say, for example, that there's not a chance that Small Time Burgers could ever compete with, and defeat McDonalds, right? After all, many have tried....Burger King, Wendys, Jack In The Box, Hardees, Carls Junior....And I suppose, considering the "Billions & Billions Sold", the 100,000 stores, you might be able to make a good argument. In defining the game that way....you'll lose, and the best part, you have all your excuses for failure built in. No point in even trying, really....

However....Small Time Burgers would then be playing McDonalds game. Your mistake is framing the fight for your own failure. Small Time Burgers doesn't have to beat McDonalds as its defined above. It only has to beat that McDonalds over there....The one on the corner. That one. Then you pick another one. And another, and another....One at a time. How? By being more agile. By outserving, outperforming, outflanking them every time they turn around.

The reason Burger King, Wendys, Jack In The Box, Hardees, Carls Junior are all behind, is they're trying to compete with McDonalds by trying to be a better McDonalds instead of serving better food.

Regardless of what you read in the trades and/or the corporate statements of Radio Companies attempting to cover up their mistakes, ALL RADIO IS LOCAL. But Corporate Radio Management simply cannot cope with local anything. It gives up too much power to local managers. And that is their fatal flaw. The hole in their doctrine. Their ego-driven, money chasing, creativity crushing, Listener forsaking mess. It only "works" if everyone plays the same game....And they DO!!

It's your opening to defeat them....And the best part, they cannot react. You're too small, and everyone in the (Corporate Radio) business knows it....But not the actual audience. The Listeners...Do radio for them, and they will listen.

(BTW, the Corporations know it too. I'll bet that WARM isn't even for sale. And if it was, it would be at an astronomical price only a huge corporation could pay. You beginning to see the Forest for the Trees?)

But you buy into the current corporate management myth...predicated on corporation stock price instead of real station earnings.

Radio (WARM leading the way) is losing because for the last 20 years, they have pursued the wrong audience. Wall Street, instead of Main Street.

Who made that decision?

J-D
WRS

Hey J-D,

Ultimately it's the listeners who decide. Judging by the ratings, they are choosing FM over AM every time there is a choice to be made.

Considering the high value that many on these boards attach to WARM, wouldn't it make sense for the operator WITH the deep pockets to make the move? The operator that ALREADY OWNS the facility? The operator with the cash-cow FMs already in place?

We've heard about the sale possibilities further above. Reality smacked a new operator in the face and they passed. That same reality faces Citadel right now. They don't seem to be jumping at the chance to invest a quarter million in bringing WARM back up to spec.

Something is missing here. If the opportunity is simply there for the taking (for WARM or for THOUSANDS of similarly situated AM stations) why don't we see that opportunity being seized by those with the wherewithal to make it happen?

Simply (and perhaps, sadly), because such a move makes no sense.

As to the asking price for WARM, why wouldn't it be high? The buyer will certainly fail, but until they do, they will be out pounding the pavement, driving down the average spot price and driving up the cost of selling. WARM's asking price is calculated on what the short-term cost will be for Citadel until the buyer runs out of cash and shuts down.

Lots of folks believe in radio to the point of tunnel vision. The 'community service' mantra is spread far and wide by folks who have never had to make payroll for all that largess. What works IS working. What doesn't, isn't.

Oh, and as for Pizza Hut in Old Forge. Don't look now, but Domino's is already there.

http://www.yellowpages.com/info-12414849/Dominos-Pizza/maps?back_to=/18518~Old-Forge-PA/Pizza?

 

[kfitz]

Jon D and Jeff,

A correction.....someone mentioned an ARB number for WILK and insinuated it was entirely for WILK-AM...the new simulcast rules for ARB take all simulcasts and attribute them to a single call letter, no more call letter splits. As such, 1300 AM, 910 AM, and 103.1 FM are all attributed to the WILK 980 ratings. Only with a personal diary review can the actual station listened to be determined. The WILK network usually scored between a 3.5 and 5.5 rating prior to 103.1 being added in.....you do the mathematical estimate. Also, the WILK network often scores higher ratings during the winter time months, much as ESPN radio often does better in late summer and fall (if the Phillies are winning).
AM has its problems....where it is technically better because of better signals, its does better. In San Francisco where FM signals are chopped up by terrain, AM is King (many of these stations are 50 kw too). In many markets where ground conductivity is very good AM does well too (Minn., N. Dakota, Mich, Wisc. as examples....ask Ron Sch.). In markets where there are many FM's with superior signals AM is going to get killed. By the way, much of Scranton/Wilkes-Barre has a ground conductivity of 0.5 (from actual measurement data); I'm guessing the worst number in the western hemisphere (one engineer told me once its the granite rock in the ground in this area). As such, AM signals here are the worst in the country, add that to the interference from being so close to many large cities in the NE and AM radio in this area has it bad. It is different in other areas of the country.

KF

 

[jeffwoehrle]

Hey Kevin,

Forgot about WILK’s new FM outpost. Wonder what kind of numbers their format would get if WILK swapped with WGGY? Don’t know if their brand of talk would do better than Froggy, but I’m sure it would gather better numbers than it gets now.

Many have said that the only truly viable AM stations are the big 50k clears. A truly revolutionary thought would be to have the government buy up all the ‘small’ AM stations (in this age of bailouts, anything is possible) and finally clear out all the hash created by flawed DA policy from the last few decades.

A dozen or two truly nationwide signals would create a medium that would be informative, useful and relevant. Let AM be the band of the SuperStations.

I know there’s about a snowball’s chance in Hell of that happening. Although, the current power structure in D.C. seems to frown on the dissenting opinions of Talk Radio. Is this a way to quiet some of the opposition? Surely such a move would at least get a listen at FCC H.Q.

 

[MCNDRWS]

Oh, and as for Pizza Hut in Old Forge. Don't look now, but Domino's is already there.

And Domino's Does A Great Business In Old Forge, Because They Are One Of The Very Few Places In Town That Delivers.

 

[mrwattson]

Man this is getting interesting.

I guess after boiling it down, the AM station that carries the big syndicated programs, Rush, Hannity, Savage, etc, on AM will always beat out any other AM station. Tune in every night and go up and down the dial to hear cookie cutter AM radio stations. Can't hear Savage on one station? Tune into another that carries him.......

FM will always be on top in most markets.

Someday maybe soon, talk may explode on FM and then who knows what what will become of the AM band?

WARM "the station that reaches (reached the beaches)" back in the day is on its death bed. Some posters say that there is still hope.

If I had a choice to hear talk on AM or FM, I would choose FM and so would most people.

I still can't believe AM will die, but then again, I have an old typewriter in the basement.

It will still take some time to see how it all plays out, maybe years.

 

[BaltimoreJack]

(So....Hancock, wanna go and prepare a banquet for these young turks? Crow under glass, perhaps?)

I'm curious....Management there is doing a good job, huh? Really? AM Radio is dead, right? OK, help me understand...

WILK-AM, (with an 8.3 12+ Jeeze!) is actually just lucky there's no News/Talk on FM?

If S/W-B Radio management is so good, why is that? After all, FM News/Talk is catching fire everywhere, and yet there are 3 Classic Hits FMs, with 3 different owners each barely pulling a 1.5 share....?!?

Look, WARM, or any other S/W-B AM Radio station could win any time its management chose to. They either don't care, or they just don't know how. Which is it?

Beware of writing off sleeping giants.

J-D
WRS

You need to read the ratings you are quoting C-A-R-E-F-U-L-L-Y. While they list WILK AM..When you have a multi-cast like WILK does, the subscriber can, and often does choose to have the number presented as a single number for a single station. You have to have full access to the Arbitron software to break out the different signals. Those who get to see the "free" numbers (the quoteable 12+ numbers) are not allowed access to that data. So before you jump up and down, you need to have the whole story, which in this case you do not. WILK is made up of WILK, THE FM, an AM signal in the Scranton area, an AM signal in the Hazleton area, and possibly another signal. SO this big number you are quoting for WILK-AM is a total number totaling the sum of all parts. So your point proves nothing..and WARM ain't gonna rise again. Your turn, Jeff!

 

[BaltimoreJack]

Oh, and as for Pizza Hut in Old Forge. Don't look now, but Domino's is already there.

And Domino's Does A Great Business In Old Forge, Because They Are One Of The Very Few Places In Town That Delivers.

I was never all that fond of Old Forge Pizza.

 

[BaltimoreJack]

Jon D and Jeff,

A correction.....someone mentioned an ARB number for WILK and insinuated it was entirely for WILK-AM...the new simulcast rules for ARB take all simulcasts and attribute them to a single call letter, no more call letter splits. As such, 1300 AM, 910 AM, and 103.1 FM are all attributed to the WILK 980 ratings. Only with a personal diary review can the actual station listened to be determined. The WILK network usually scored between a 3.5 and 5.5 rating prior to 103.1 being added in.....you do the mathematical estimate. Also, the WILK network often scores higher ratings during the winter time months, much as ESPN radio often does better in late summer and fall (if the Phillies are winning).
AM has its problems....where it is technically better because of better signals, its does better. In San Francisco where FM signals are chopped up by terrain, AM is King (many of these stations are 50 kw too). In many markets where ground conductivity is very good AM does well too (Minn., N. Dakota, Mich, Wisc. as examples....ask Ron Sch.). In markets where there are many FM's with superior signals AM is going to get killed. By the way, much of Scranton/Wilkes-Barre has a ground conductivity of 0.5 (from actual measurement data); I'm guessing the worst number in the western hemisphere (one engineer told me once its the granite rock in the ground in this area). As such, AM signals here are the worst in the country, add that to the interference from being so close to many large cities in the NE and AM radio in this area has it bad. It is different in other areas of the country.

KF

Kevin....
Another note on ground conductivity. WCCO in Minneapolis is one of those stations that you can hear almost everywhere, and if you've got a good toaster, you can hear it from that, too. But....while you can hear CCO in Montana & Maine, they can't hear it 150 miles northeast of Minneapolis in Eveleth. Why? Eveleth and other cities up that way sit on the famed Minnesota Iron Range..which soaks up AM signals like a dry sponge soaks up water. You make a great point about the ground conductivity of NEPA..but then again, you're the guy who knows all that fancy techie stuff!!

 

[joep]

I still can't believe AM will die, but then again, I have an old typewriter in the basement.

Good point, but I see a big difference.

EVERY, and I mean *EVERY* new car (even the 9-series bimmer with the HD and XM) comes with an AM radio. Probably even that glorified roller-skate car that Indian company just rolled out has one. The AM band is on just about every clock and table radio -- even those with the IPOD dock. AM radios are everywhere.

But you'd be hard-pressed to find a new ribbon for that Smith-Corona that you have in the basement -- except maybe on eBay.... or Labarres in Pittston.

 

[wirelessinnepa]

Jeff,

I think your idea of the government "buying up" AM's that are no longer relevant has real merit...not sure exactly how this would go...but clearing out the AM band would be beneficial to the remaining AM's....and *possibly* revitalize the AM band.

The only problem with this, is the government would put these frequencies back up for bid in the next AM auction.....thus "filling up" the AM band once again...because there are plenty of operators, or would-be operators who would love to have these frequencies.....

Maybe this is the way this should be.....there are plenty of smaller AM operators who thrive....not just the handful of clear channel (note small letters) AM stations in big cities....I know at least half a dozen AM only operators who do very VERY well with their AM sticks...normally, it's because the AM is the only signal they have, so it's never been a throw away.....

Incidentally, I have a friend who just moved to the Harrisburg area.....he's 32, and I was asking him what station is his favorite station while he drives to work....his answer? 580 WHP. He likes the news. People will listen to AM if it's not scratchy and it has the content they want....right there is a model for possibly remaking the AM band.....if the signal's ok, and the content is good.....people will listen...by the way, this guy isn't a media person AT ALL....he doesn't even have a television....watches all shows he wants on the internet....but he does give 1 hour and 45 minutes a day to WHP...because it's there and it has what he wants.

Notwithstanding, I know the problems AM has...and many of them are inherent in the technology....clearing out the AM band FOR GOOD would be a good start, Jeff.

Ben

 

[jeffwoehrle]

Hey Ben,

So long as any government move to thin out the band would remain permanent, it would just serve to backtrack on 20 years of bad policy. DAs have been shoehorned into every available null up and down the band. Even with perfectly performing antenna systems, that's still a lot of RF pumped out for cheap radios to sort out. Which is why AM has the reputation for sounding the way it does.

I don't know how...maybe tax credits? Bailout bucks? Socialism securities? :-\

Whatever is implemented, pulling one or two thousand stations (or more) out of that narrow slice of spectrum would do wonders for the ones that remain. I'd bet that a voluntary system, resulting in whatever compensation is viable, would get plenty of takers.

Bet Citadel would be one of them for 590.

Jeff