Johnny said:
So their idea was that they needed to get a broad offering of formats on the air right away to be able to offer the diversity of satellite radio for free.
One of the dumber moves I've ever seen in close to 40 years in the radio business. Offering the diversity of formats that satellite radio has,
with a completely different business model, is a recipe for disaster. Remember, this is commercial radio we're talking about. They need to sale of air time to make a profit and pay all the costs associated with running these extra channels. Having them run without commercials for two years is, to put it plainly, insane. They have no way to recoup those costs, and they can't do it by charging existing advertisers on the main channel any more money because there is no increase in audience on the main channel to justify it. So, what they're really doing is diluting what their air time is worth. How much sense does that make?
Johnny said:
they can't decide to be in "HD" some days and then turn it off on others. As some have suggested here when they are airing a sporting event and want to loose the analog delay. For the HDradio technology to make to the consumer it has to work all the time and work the way it was designed.
Which means that they had better get the FCC to approve nighttime IBOC on AM, and fast. On a remailer I subscribe to, someone posted that a Denver AM station is running all their HDRadio promotions overnight...when it's turned off. It's crap like this that is going to kill this tech before it even has a fair chance.
Johnny said:
So I guess their lawyers think they are covered and I'm sure they looked into it. These companies all pay a lot of money to lawyers. Could they be wrong of course they could but they don't make these moves blindly or without consultation.
Enron had a whole bevy of lawyers, and their top execs still wound up with long prison terms. Having lawyers review these agreements is no guarantee of anything.
Johnny said:
I would say the bigger problem is the collusion that took place before all of this where the FCC and the broadcast industry agreed to let this one company "iBiquity" have all the marbles. But I guess it's been done in the past with other other technologies and has held up in the courts so it probably will again. And without that "one player" or standard you have other problems with competing technologies that would in this case never make it to the market place.
You would guess wrong. None of the other "new" technologies, such as color TV or FM stereo, have demanded such huge up-front licensing costs from either transmitter or receiver manufacturers, nor have they demanded a say in what programming is transmitted using the new tech. The only result of taking the FCC to court over a new tech in the case of AM stereo was that there was no standard set and the new tech effectively died off.
Johnny said:
Figuring out if they can make enough money from HD2, HD3 etc. to pay iBiquity's fees and still make a profit with them.
They're making NO money now, and we have no way of knowing if, after two years, there will be enough receivers out there with enough of an audience to make any of these secondary channels pay their own way. In any case, whatever audience there will be will be snatched away from other secondary or primary channels. The pie isn't getting bigger just because there are more listening options. Remember what happened in the wake of FCC Docket 80-90, which permitted drop-in FM allocations and rim-shot signals covering larger cities. Lots of stations started going under, because the economy could not support so many additional signals. Now we're proposing to double or even triple the number of available FM signals, while the listener universe is increasing by only a few percent a year (the normal rate of population growth). It amazes me that the broadcasting business, which relies on a specific economic model for its very existence, doesn't see how they're managing to shoot themselves in the foot by touting this new technology as if it was going to get back all the listeners they've already lost to alternative media. They're using this new tech to dilute their audience and therefore dilute the value of their commercial inventory, and again that's a recipe for disaster.