Welcome to Skewed Results 101

[clouseau]

This group has been repeatedly enlightened by the posting of the following Google trend.

http://www.google.com/trends?q="hd+radio",+ipod,+mp3,+"Internet+radio"&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all

On the surface, it would appear that HD radio has generated virtually no interest. This is truly "Dan Rather" style reporting at it's finest. It fails to take into account several variables which skew the data. Again, I'm not looking to "Contradict" the data. Just show how it is (To borrow a phrase) "Defective" when it comes to showing the original posters point.

This data is collected via Google searches. This means non internet users (Or non Google Users) are not included. That would skew the data away from older people and would place a "Tech Saavy" skew on the data.

Also, if one were to read the data, they would see that if is heavily caveated and Google freely admits they "Approximate" it. Still, this is not the primary thing wrong with the chart. The main problem is that it tracks search terms. ANY search items. Like if someone searches for "Timberlake", "Sexy back" and "mp3", they count in the junk data as a "Search about mp3" . It just has no meaning..


http://www.google.com/trends?q="MP3...rn",+"Britney+Spears"&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all

Do we really believe MP3 is bigger than Britney, Howard Stern and the Cherished "Internet radio"? Not likely. however since you pretty much need to be an internet user to get MP3s, it's skewed.

Another example of how this works is this

http://www.google.com/trends?q="MP3...le",+"Britney+Spears"&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all

Can we really believe that twice as many people Googled "Google" in 2006 than googled the inflated MP3 Number? For the life of me I can't understand why anyone would type in "Google" after GOING to google. This is suspect.

When we get the garbage data out and compare apples to apples there "ARE" a few things that are "Interesting". (Keep in mind the sample is still skewed). This is an interesting comparison of

http://www.google.com/trends?q="hd+...em",+"Portable+Radio"&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all

The point is, when you eliminate the Internet or "Tech" bias, as well as the blatent false positives for terms like "MP3" these graphs are interesting. They don't PROVE anything. But they ARE interesting.

Clouseau

 

[700WLW]

Google Trends is also used by Mark Ramsey, as the downgrading of HD Radio sales by Bridge Ratings, the pathetic sales rankings of all HD radio products on Amazon, that no review for HD Radio products on any site has received over 350 votes, confirms that it is an accurate, non-biased, random sampling of consumer trends/interest:

"What kind of digital radio are listeners searching for?"

"What a cool analysis Google now provides via Google Trends. It's what folks are searching for - and we can assume that search is a representation of interest."

"Don - your point is EXACTLY why "find hidden stations between the stations" messaging is a failure. It's radio geeks talking to radio geeks. The average person as little interest in searching around to "discover" what may be "hidden" between radio stations - they want to know - Oh - there's a new country station etc..."

http://www.hear2.com/2006/10/what_kind_of_di.html

"Bridge Ratings updates HD Radio projections"

"12+ Interest in Owning HD radio (Very/Somewhat) - 8%"

http://www.hear2.com/2007/01/bridge_ratings_.html#comments

As we can see, no review for the Receptor HD, on Circuit City's site, has receiver over 340 votes, over the past three months:

http://www.circuitcity.com/ssm/Cust.../order/D/rpem/ccd/productDetailReview.do#tabs

The Receptor HD radio, is currently ranked 10,400 on Amazon's electronics best-sellers list:

http://www.amazon.com/Boston-Acoust...r_1/002-6316991-9006458?ie=UTF8&s=electronics

The Receptor HD radio, on Amazon, has not received over 75 votes, per review, over the past six months:

http://www.amazon.com/Boston-Acoust...r_1/002-6316991-9006458?ie=UTF8&s=electronics

Here, is the current interest in HD Radio, but the interest is now waining:

http://www.google.com/trends?q="hd+radio"&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all

Here is the comparison between HD Radio, podcasting, Siruis, and XM Satellite Radio, which puts the interest in HD Radio, in perspective:

http://www.google.com/trends?q="hd+radio",+sirius,+xm,+podcast

On Google Trends, iPods and MP3 players, as a direct competitors to HD Radio, flat-line interest in HD Radio:

http://www.google.com/trends?q="hd+radio",+podcast,+sirius,+ipod,+mp3

And, to confirm the popularity of iPods and MP3s, here is Amazons best-sellers list, for portable audio/video:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/172623/ref=pd_ts_e_nav/002-6316991-9006458

Here, is Amazon's best-seller's list for all HD Radio products:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/161081011/ref=pd_ts_e_nav/002-6316991-9006458

 

[700WLW]

http://www.google.com/trends?q="hd+radio",+ipod,+mp3,+"Internet+radio"&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all

Nice try, but you deceptively flat-lined interest in HD and Internet Radio up-front, by including MP3 players - let's try, the honest approach:

Here, is the current interest in HD Radio, but the interest is now waining:

http://www.google.com/trends?q="hd+radio"&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all

Here, is the comparison between HD Radio, podcasting, Siruis, and XM Satellite Radio, which puts the interest in HD Radio, gradually, in perspective:

http://www.google.com/trends?q="hd+radio",+sirius,+xm,+podcast

Here is where, iPods and MP3 players, flat-line interest in HD Radio, podcasting, and Sirius:

http://www.google.com/trends?q="hd+radio",+podcast,+sirius,+ipod,+mp3

 

[SUPERCASTER]

clouseau said:

Do we really believe MP3 is bigger than Britney, Howard Stern and the Cherished "Internet radio"? Not likely. however since you pretty much need to be an internet user to get MP3s, it's skewed.

More people are interested in MP3's "than Britney, Howard Stern and the Cherished "Internet radio"? That is very likely.
21 million iPods were sold just in THE LAST QUARTER of last year. Probably close to 100 million iPods for the whole year, not including sales of many other MP3 type players.
How many CD's did Britney sell last year?
How many listeners does Howard Stern have?
No where near 100 million, even for both combined.
Your opinions are skewed, not the data. As with any data, there is a margin of error. No sampling or survey is all inclusive, or 100% accurate. Not even the US Census actually contacted everyone.