The ESB stations barely touch Somerset with a 65 dbu, so they are pretty much restricted in potential the farther you get into that county. Morris gets a bit more useful in-home and at-work signal, but falls short of being fully covered by a 65 dbu by any of those ESB stations.
David, I suspect that if we were both using the same data we would have been in complete agreement on all of this all along. I lived in Somerset County for almost forty years, and know all the radio signals and local listening patterns there very well. For most of those years I had my clock radio set to an ESB signal and didn't give signal strength a second thought. I also know multitudes of people who live far beyond your predicted 65 dbu line, who have routinely listened to ESB signals in the house and in the car all of their lives without giving it a second thought. The ESB signals are routinely listenable in parts of Ocean, Mercer, Hunterdon, Warren and Sussex Counties all outside the New York Market.
The ESB signals also cover Morris County. I have a brother who has lived within a few miles of the western edge of Morris since the 1970s and the ESB, Philly, Princeton, and Lehigh Valley FM stations have always been routinely listenable at his house. The only ESB station that can be a bit iffy is low power WQXR. I had dinner in a restaurant a mile from the outer edge of Morris County last week, and it had WLTW from the ESB playing on its sound system.
As to WFME, I never paid that much attention to its programming, but I also lived seven years at the very top of that same mountain ridge where its transmitter is located, and know what you can see and hear from up there very well. Just scanning the radio dial you will routinely receive stations in Westchester, the Hudson Valley, Long Island and Connecticut. It was also routine to receive low powered college FM stations from Long Island, and if their signals make it there the much stronger WFME signal is routinely going to wherever they are. I also worked at WVNJ-FM when it transmitted from the same tower WFME now uses, and IIRC the power was about the same too. I remember the phone calls from listeners on Long Island, and in Westchester. I remember a woman friend from north of the Tappan Zee in Westchester telling me how surprised she was to accidentally hear me on the radio up there shortly after I started at WVNJ. She was no radio person, she was just tuning across the dial and listened when she heard a familiar voice.
So, given all this anecdotal evidence, and more, I don't see the new WFME's commercial success being make or break dependent on moving the transmitter to the ESB. It's likely that the folks at Cumulus did their homework,and some real world testing, on the WFME signal. It's interesting that the deal includes an upgrade in station value if the transmitter is moved within five years.
And it's also interesting that in addition to the $40-million in cash, Family Radio is also getting that Mt. Kisco FM. I don't know what that station is worth, but that means WFME was worth significantly more than $40-million right where it is. So, in the end WFME was worth a significant fraction of an ESB signal, and it is being purchased by one of the three major players in American radio.
In the end, the WFME signal still has the potential to be a major player, but not likely a top dog, in the New York radio market. What will matter far more than signal is format selection, and execution. And that format's popularity and market share in desired demos in the areas where the WFME signal is strong.
