What Hath CBS Roth

[Radknowski]

>
> If I'm a Howard listener and I don't like classic rock here
> and Howard's not on, but classic rock is in morning drive, I
> change the station. If he's not the worst thing to hit
> radio since IBOC, David Lee Roth at least has a chance of
> keeping a Howard listener. (Which, by the way, I'm not,
> really...)
>
> -OA
>
<font face="times new roman" size="3" color="330066">
Roth and the rest of the pretenders hired to "replace" Howard Stern are in an unenviable position. While they're getting an opportunity of a lifetime, chances are they'll fail. It's like winning the booby prize.

Anybody recall who followed Stern in afternoon drive on W-ennnN-B-C? Does the name Joey Reynolds ring a bell? Talented as he was/is, he laid an egg. Reynolds wasn't bad. He just wasn't Howard. Yet, who wouldn't have accepted the opportunity to do afternoon drive in the Big Apple? You roll the dice, give it your best shot. And if you die trying, at least you can say you tried. There are lots of people in the biz who've never had and never will have the opportunity.

Still, chances are the guys who follow in Stern's slot on the select CBS stations will find tough sledding. I hope CBS gives the poor bastards more than a few books to get themselves established. Look what's happening in Syracuse on Stern's old station. Two mamalukes who can't even get arrested.

Stern's act, love it or hate it, is unique and cannot be duplicated. I'm not a raving fan of the man. There are days when he represents the worst in humankind and broadcasting. Other days, he's refreshing and bluntly honest.

"Diamond" David Lee Roth is interesting as an interviewee more than an interviewer. Air personality? Jock? Radio guy? Pass.

Showman? Sure, when he was wearing spandex and wailing like a wounded dog as the font man for Van Halen. But as colorful as he may be, HE'S NOT A BROADCASTER and that's the primary reason he's likely not to succeed.

Even though I no longer stand or sit behind the microphone, I have respect for the game, having played it for many years. Roth doesn't respect the game because he has no idea of how it's properly played. He probably believes he's going to re-define the game like Howard did over the last 25 years. That's not likely to happen. In the end, Roth may go down in radio history as an answer to a trivia question.

As to "Jack Music" in the morning. I give that gameplan about two books. About as much time as I give Jack. They'd better be lining up the next format. I hear Smooth Jazz is making a comeback in some markets. Than again, there's always Dancin' Alice.
</font>

 

[brian71]

Most radio executives STILL don't understand that you CANNOT make the "next big thing" out of nothing. The biggest names in the biz were, for the most part, not given any red carpet treatment by the industry while they were busy making a name for themselves. Whenever radio tries to force fate to reveal itself by attempting to annoint someone as "it", they fail. It is not a comfortable thought in this corporate envronnment to have to WAIT for that next big talent to pop up---but they're going to have to wait and wade through all the tapes and CDs of those fighting their way to the top---just as it should be.

Stern slowly and methodically built his empire one station at a time. The idea that some clown (a non radio clown no less) can just waltz in and pick up several major market morning positions with NO TRACK RECORD of ANY ratings success, is incredibly stupid and naive. Roth has NO radio experience, Carolla has...well....Loveline(!) Rover is the only one with some semblance of radio experience, but even his experience and talent is not exactly earthshattering.

Still think there's a master plan by Infinity? Still think they're not naive at the very top? Consider this: Infinity had actually considered hiring ONE person to take over the whole set of Stern stations---until that person, Jon Stewart had the sense enough to suggest to them that they hire several hosts.

What they need to do is swallow the reality pill and recognize that they simply need to get back to basic broadcasting. Hire someone who they think will get good numbers doing a local show and go from there.

 

[Mark_Giardina]

What A Tangled Web We Weave....

Isn’t broadcasting a wonderful industry? Where else can you find a small group of individuals bent on running a business into the ground as long as they fill their sales quotas for the month? Well I guess some manufacturing companies today, but that’s a different story altogether.

My take on the Howard Stern saga is that the “King of all Media” will take most of his audience to Sirius with him next month, leaving those terrestrial radio stations that used to carry his show holding their brains in their hands, if you know what I mean?

Now the smart thing for those affiliates who carried Stern would have been to dump Howard shortly after he first announced his decision to jump to satellite radio. Instead they kept airing Stern, who spent most of his show promoting Sirius and bad mouthing terrestrial radio. It kind of reminds me of someone walking into a Chevy dealership and the salesperson tries to sell you a Ford.

Not all of the affiliates who carried Stern had blinders on. A few of them actually did drop Howard’s show and recruited local talent, thus having the foresight of allowing the local talent time to generate their own following.

There are some who believe that satellite radio may end up being the savior of terrestrial radio because it could force terrestrial radio owners to recruit more local talent while the big names go to XM or Sirius.
Personally, while I would love to see this happen, I don’t believe it will because that would mean turning over control of broadcasting operations to people who actually know what they are doing. And heaven forbid we wouldn’t want to buck the current trend now would we?

 

[SirRoxalot]

Method? Or Madness?

I agree with our resident painter's statement that you don't want to be the guy that replaces a legend. Actually, you want to be the guy that replaces the act that replaced the legend.

Maybe CBS/Infinity/Viacom is thinking that hiring a bunch of big-name rookies will make whoever comes AFTER them sound that much better. And, really, are you worried that any of the guys following Howard are going to have their egos shattered by the experience?

On the other hand, the corporate suits just might be programming-stupid...

 

[OldAkronite]

David Lee Roth's High Climb

> Even though I no longer stand or sit behind the microphone,
> I have respect for the game, having played it for many
> years. Roth doesn't respect the game because he has no idea
> of how it's properly played. He probably believes he's going
> to re-define the game like Howard did over the last 25
> years. That's not likely to happen. In the end, Roth may go
> down in radio history as an answer to a trivia question.

You know what? Overall, I'd have to agree. But I've never heard him do a radio show (either as an interviewee or a host), so I can't say for sure he won't surprise people. I'm not optimistic for him, much like I wasn't optimistic when the Air America liberal talk network mounted a schedule with very few radio people.

What I was basically saying in the quoted message was this: A personality/talk show, in general, at least has a chance of holding onto SOME of Stern's audience, where a "more music mornings" show would by definition drive people away by the mere fact that they may not like the kind of music the station played outside of Howard's show. I just pulled David Lee Roth's name out of the hat because he's the highest-visibility replacement for Stern.

My point, pretty much, was that I didn't think mounting a "more music morning show" in Stern's place was a good idea, unless perhaps it's a temporary stopgap while other alternatives would eventually take hold.

It's indeed a very high climb for Mr. Roth. He's "replacing a legend", as are the other ones on the list...Adam Carolla out west, Rover in the midwest, and the scattered other shows like the Junkies in DC/Baltimore. At least all three of those acts have radio background.

I think the most telling thing may be a quote from one of the CBS Radio bigwigs. When asked about it at the launch of the "Free FM" strategy, he even admitted that all these shows were being put out there on basically a one or two year leash. And he basically made it sound like a radio version of "Survival of the Fittest" among the various replacement shows.

As far as "Stern's listeners will follow him"...a chunk will, sure. But a much larger chunk will look at $100ish for equipment and $13/mo. for the service and say, "you know, Howard was entertaining, but not THAT entertaining". They'll likely spread to the winds, between whoever replaces Howard, other popular morning shows in the market, or other options.

-OA<P ID="signature">______________
Ohio Media Watch - <a target="_blank" href=http://ohiomedia.blogspot.com>http://ohiomedia.blogspot.com</a></P>

 

[Bob1370]

> Roth and the rest of the pretenders hired to "replace"
> Howard Stern are in an unenviable position. While they're
> getting an opportunity of a lifetime, chances are they'll
> fail. It's like winning the booby prize.

That's precisely why Mancow didn't jump at the chance he had last year to sign with CBS to replace Howard-and unlike the current regional strategy, apparently they had a national rollout in mind for him if he'd come on board. He quite wisely thought that replacing a big star was a thankless and futile job. You're better off being in position to be the replacement for the replacements a couple of years down the line, when the bar is set low and you become a winner the moment you begin to grow.

> Still, chances are the guys who follow in Stern's slot on
> the select CBS stations will find tough sledding. I hope CBS
> gives the poor bastards more than a few books to get
> themselves established. Look what's happening in Syracuse on
> Stern's old station. Two mamalukes who can't even get
> arrested.

They're apparently committed to at least a year or two, by which time they'll know if ANY of these acts has traction.

My prediction is that unless Roth is a lot more disciplined and committed performer than I think he is, he won't make it...Stern was nothing if not a hard worker constantly refining and tuning his act to keep it connected, and I just wonder if Roth understands the medium and its demands well enough even to know what he has to do to make it.
Because he is a seasoned radio guy with a local fan base out west, and he's a familiar name from his Comedy Central TV appearances as well, I give Adam Carolla a much better chance to draw a decent audience and survive longterm out in Los Angeles and the western markets. He won't be as strong as Stern but he'll be strong enough that he'll still be around when the others fail, unless an attractive sitcom or other TV gig comes his way.

Can't say whether the other acts in the patchwork of Stern replacements have the goods to break out...but since they've either tried before and fallen short or haven't even been asked until now, you have to have your doubts.

> Stern's act, love it or hate it, is unique and cannot be
> duplicated. I'm not a raving fan of the man. There are days
> when he represents the worst in humankind and broadcasting.
> Other days, he's refreshing and bluntly honest.

That's another thing most of the others won't be bringing to the table. Blunt honesty was a big part of Stern's act, and will continue to be a draw. That's a level on which few personalities connect. Most of them operate on the concept that a combination of created persona and recurring shtick is what gets you numbers. That may have worked when it was a novel approach back in 1960. It isn't so sure-fire now.

> "Diamond" David Lee Roth is interesting as an interviewee
> more than an interviewer. Air personality? Jock? Radio guy?
> Pass.

Upstate, we won't even get a chance to sample him, so we'll have to wait and see how he does in NYC and Philly. Again, it all depends on how well he's come to understand the medium and whether he matches Howard's discipline.

> As to "Jack Music" in the morning. I give that gameplan
> about two books. About as much time as I give Jack. They'd
> better be lining up the next format. I hear Smooth Jazz is
> making a comeback in some markets. Than again, there's
> always Dancin' Alice.

At least some of the stations in CBS's Buffalo cluster are already on the block, possibly the whole cluster. So my guess is, whoever brings the next format to 92.9 will be a different owner entirely. Entercom has already bagged its limit in Buffalo so it won't be them...maybe that's one of the stations Clear Channel will use to enter the Western NY region?

 

[Jay_Surly]

Re: Method? Madness? Business?

>
> On the other hand, the corporate suits just might be
> programming-stupid...
>

As I read this thread, I am impressed at the analysis from the radio professionals and real world experience that lends itself to opinionated and well-reasoned opinion. The humor and insight make for enjoyable reading.

Although I'm not given to writing humorous essays, the thought occurs that this whole "Replacing Howard" scenario could be a special edition of "Surivor" and "The Apprentice."

Why haven't CBS and/or NBC thought of video taping the escapades of David Lee Roth, Rover and other victims, er, candidates, packaging it for television or one of their websites? Think of the possibilities of seeing Roth succeeding or failing. Being shown the ratings from five different markets going up or worse (better for the dramatic effect) down.

Am I the only one who conjures up this video opportunity? Les Moonves, there's money to be made here. Maybe I'm thinking too much. Maybe I should leave the humorous analysis to guys like Dave Barry, Sir Roxalot and ALW.

Seriously though, the theory regarding Mancow and others not wanting to be the person to follow Stern but the person who follows the person who follows Stern seems accurate. It's like landing a Piper Cub following a 747. The vortex and wind shears are much too treacherous. But it seems to me, those who took the opportunity believe that there's an opportunity, if not to make a few bucks then to get some exposure, for better or worse. Out of all the "contestants" there may be one who to one extent or another, survives the ordeal.

Mr. Moonves?

Now, if CBS DOES make a series out of this, I hope my fellow posters will attest to the fact that some Ukranian guy from upstate New York first proposed the idea on a radio message board in late December 2005.

Best regards,

Janos Surlikevich

 

[SirRoxalot]

Don't discount Diamond Dave YET

> My prediction is that unless Roth is a lot more disciplined
> and committed performer than I think he is, he won't make
> it...

Bob, I have to disagree with one portion of your analysis. It takes a tremendous amount of discipline to reach the heights that David Lee did as a musician in a band like Van Halen. I believe that he also holds a black belt in karate, and those don't come easy either.

Now we come to the crux of the matter - commitment. Is Dave really committed, or should Dave really be committed? Sammy Hagar might have an answer. The Van Halen boys might also have a clue if you can catch them in one of their more lucid moments.

One thing's for sure - his ego is strong enough to take on the challenge. He's also enough of a personality to get at least a short grace period among 25-45 males. At least they'll be listening to hear David Lee Roth, and not "Howard 2".

You are right about one thing. David Lee appears to be the type that focuses on a challenge and works hard to overcome the obstacles, then loses interest when he thinks he's conquered that particular world. Whether he can attract enough interest to replace Howard's audience numbers will be interesting to watch.

I think that it a lot of Howard's audience will scatter to Sirius, NPR, and other morning shows. David Lee will get some ex-Sternites, and attract defectors from other morning options. His numbers won't be nearly as bad as Jack will see in Buffalo with a music-oriented approach.

Whether Dave will still be in Howard's chair two years from now is an entirely different story.

 

[Debaser]

Re: What A Tangled Web We Weave....

>
> My take on the Howard Stern saga is that the “King of all
> Media” will take most of his audience to Sirius with him
> next month, leaving those terrestrial radio stations that
> used to carry his show holding their brains in their hands,
> if you know what I mean?
>
>

Stern had 10,000,000 terrestrial listeners. Sirius is currently at 2,000,000, up since Stern announced he was going there.

8,000,000 new subscribers is less than a month? I doubt it. But it would be nice if only because I own Sirius stock.

 

[LexLuthor]

> >
> > If I'm a Howard listener and I don't like classic rock
> here
> > and Howard's not on, but classic rock is in morning drive,
> I
> > change the station. If he's not the worst thing to hit
> > radio since IBOC, David Lee Roth at least has a chance of
> > keeping a Howard listener. (Which, by the way, I'm not,
> > really...)
> >
> > -OA
> >
> Well stated below. I've recently spent some time with Radio
Free Weeze on 96.5. Aside from the liberal dribble that he gets
caught up in from time to time, it's a good listen. I also agree
that it's time to place your bets on the format du jour on 92.9.
How do Infinity's local managers keep their gigs after blowing it
time and again on this high potential signal?


> Roth and the rest of the pretenders hired to "replace"
> Howard Stern are in an unenviable position. While they're
> getting an opportunity of a lifetime, chances are they'll
> fail. It's like winning the booby prize.
>
> Anybody recall who followed Stern in afternoon drive on
> W-ennnN-B-C? Does the name Joey Reynolds ring a bell?
> Talented as he was/is, he laid an egg. Reynolds wasn't bad.
> He just wasn't Howard. Yet, who wouldn't have accepted the
> opportunity to do afternoon drive in the Big Apple? You roll
> the dice, give it your best shot. And if you die trying, at
> least you can say you tried. There are lots of people in the
> biz who've never had and never will have the opportunity.
>
> Still, chances are the guys who follow in Stern's slot on
> the select CBS stations will find tough sledding. I hope CBS
> gives the poor bastards more than a few books to get
> themselves established. Look what's happening in Syracuse on
> Stern's old station. Two mamalukes who can't even get
> arrested.
>
> Stern's act, love it or hate it, is unique and cannot be
> duplicated. I'm not a raving fan of the man. There are days
> when he represents the worst in humankind and broadcasting.
> Other days, he's refreshing and bluntly honest.
>
> "Diamond" David Lee Roth is interesting as an interviewee
> more than an interviewer. Air personality? Jock? Radio guy?
> Pass.
>
> Showman? Sure, when he was wearing spandex and wailing like
> a wounded dog as the font man for Van Halen. But as colorful
> as he may be, HE'S NOT A BROADCASTER and that's the primary
> reason he's likely not to succeed.
>
> Even though I no longer stand or sit behind the microphone,
> I have respect for the game, having played it for many
> years. Roth doesn't respect the game because he has no idea
> of how it's properly played. He probably believes he's going
> to re-define the game like Howard did over the last 25
> years. That's not likely to happen. In the end, Roth may go
> down in radio history as an answer to a trivia question.
>
> As to "Jack Music" in the morning. I give that gameplan
> about two books. About as much time as I give Jack. They'd
> better be lining up the next format. I hear Smooth Jazz is
> making a comeback in some markets. Than again, there's
> always Dancin' Alice.
>

 

[Element9]

Cheap Automation Never Wins

> How do Infinity's local managers keep their gigs after
> blowing it time and again on this high potential signal?

Infinity/CBS Radio's Buffalo manager reportedly works hard on inspiring his sales staff to do everything in their collective power to get the buy.

The CBS cluster has the perenial winner, country powerhouse WYRK. Urban heritage WBLK and AC stalwart WJYE.

Jack/WBUF has always been the red-headed stepchild and unfortunately, gets treated that way. Imagine what the station might do if CBS said "we're going to develop a format targeted specifically for Buffalo and staff it with Buffalo air talent."

Don't hold your breath waiting for THAT to happen.

WYRK didn't become a ratings monster overnight. If CBS Buffalo applied the same patience and persistence to WBUF that allowed WYRK to become the powerhouse it is, WBUF might once again rise from the ashes.

Buffalo needs a locally programmed Adult Album Alternative station, but you can't put a format like that on the air, run it on life support and expect it to become a consistent, solid top 5 ranked 25-54 long term ratings contender.

Live jocks, at least 5 a.m. to 7 p.m. Live weekends. Separate PD. Smart promotions staff. Good production and imaging (no tinkling water and nautical bells.) It CAN be done, but it can't be done cheap.

So, in other words, don't expect WBUF to be a contender for a long, long time. But this may be acceptable for CBS Buffalo because they seem to program WBUF as a spoiler-station. Alice was intended to spoil WKSE; Dancin' Oldies was aimed at WHTT; Buffalo's puking Roccccck station was aimed to get in 97 Rock's shorts.

Each of the targeted stations won the battle. Why? Because they had LIVE, LOCAL jocks and good programmers and promotions in place who fought the battle head on and won. It took hard work, money well spent and smarts to get the job done and each time, WBUF was vanquished.

CBS still hasn't learned the lesson. You'd think they'd have, given the strength and longevity of WYRK. One wonders how CBS will react if and when Entercom or Citadel takes a run at WYRK. You'd better believe they won't cheap out on that fight.

BTW, "Lake Country" has quite a nice ring to it. Don't you think?