What this election means to talkradio

[R.D.P.]

I can see Conservative Talk Radio being very relevant.  If Obama and the Dems overreach and do too much at one time, these hosts will help usher in a "New Republican Revolution" during Barack's first mid-term in 2010.  I believe that if this event were to happen, it'll be bigger and bolder than the one we had back in 1994.

Also I'm predicting that if Obama causes much harm, I also see Conservative Talk Radio helping to elect a strong Regan type of President, that'll win by a 49 to 50 state landslide, in 2012.  (Can we say someone like Sarah Palin or Bobby Jindall) 

R.D.P. <><

P.S. To gr8oldies, I enjoyed reading from your wonderful posts, especially the 16th one.  It was right on!  8)

 

[smedge2006]

I can see Conservative Talk Radio being very relevant. If Obama and the Dems overreach and do too much at one time, these hosts will help usher in a "New Republican Revolution" during Barack's first mid-term in 2010. I believe that if this event were to happen, it'll be bigger and bolder than the one we had back in 1994.

Of course, that's assuming the past is prologue and that nothing else in the dynamics of media have changed since 1994. What has the audience for talk radio done since then, except get 15 years older?

 

[Heater]

I can see Conservative Talk Radio being very relevant. If Obama and the Dems overreach and do too much at one time, these hosts will help usher in a "New Republican Revolution" during Barack's first mid-term in 2010. I believe that if this event were to happen, it'll be bigger and bolder than the one we had back in 1994.

Also I'm predicting that if Obama causes much harm, I also see Conservative Talk Radio helping to elect a strong Regan type of President, that'll win by a 49 to 50 state landslide, in 2012. (Can we say someone like Sarah Palin or Bobby Jindall)

R.D.P. <><

P.S. To gr8oldies, I enjoyed reading from your wonderful posts, especially the 16th one. It was right on! 8)

Talk radio contains so much hyperbole no one will believe them anymore.

 

[XTalker]

Re: Smell the coffee.

Yet very few major broadcasters have dedicated any of their big-signal talk signals to Liberal Talk (Progressive Talk, Democratic Talk--whatever). Even in overwhelmingly left-leaning markets like LA & SF, Clear Channel has their Lefty Talk on secondary AM signals--1150 & 960. In DC, Clear Channel has it on it's worst signal, 1260. ABC has its huge-signal gems in NYC, Chicago and DC--all big Democrat markets--all spouting rightwing talk. Boston--akin to SF as a bastion of liberalism--has nothing but rightwing talk. Duh?

Go read the Miami board and see how CC gutted its 50kw 940 progressive talk station, which now has zero local shows.
http://www.radio-info.com/smf/index.php/topic,106507.0.html

940's morning show apparently beat CC's conservative WIOD a.m. show, so CC fires the host, Nicole Sandler, whom I enjoyed listening to. Now Imus rules there.

Get this: CC axes Ed Schultz from 940's lineup for Tom Hartman. Schultz, the most listened to progressive host, gets taken off.

While I think Stephanie Miller is a mental midget ("The Democratic party is always right!" she said on Larry King), and a waste of airwaves - she resorts to attacking people on their age - I think CC didn't want any "Progressive" station to beat its conservative Rush-clone station.

Wake up!! CC (and all radio owners) only care about what makes money. Why wouldn't CC want a liberal station or show succeed? They paid for it! Not all ratings turn into dollars and dollars is what it is all about!

 

[ratingsgeek]

Re: Smell the coffee.

[Wake up!! CC (and all radio owners) only care about what makes money. Why wouldn't CC want a liberal station or show succeed? They paid for it! Not all ratings turn into dollars and dollars is what it is all about!

CC is heavily invested in Republican politics. Mays and Hicks were among the largest contributors to Bush's campaigns for both the Texas governship and the presidency. Mays led the deregulation charge in the eighties and nineties and pushed the Telecom Bill of 96 through with backing from the GOP-controlled congress.

Slapping progressive talk on their worst properties in Dem-dominated markets is a protective device against being labelled biased. But the Republicans have been very, very good for Clear Channel, and vice-versa.

 

[XTalker]

I ralize the Mays boys contribute heavily to Republicans, but from the business standpoint, it is about the beans!

 

[smedge2006]

ralize the Mays boys contribute heavily to Republicans, but from the business standpoint, it is about the beans!

Then explain these past "bidness" scenarios...

1. Miami -- as mentioned above, liberal morning show beats co-owned conservative talk morning show in the ratings. Conservative show stays in place, liberal show gutted and replaced with (non-liberal) Imus.

2. San Diego, Columbus OH -- liberal formats on crippled signals with small but steady ratings dumped -- replacement stations fall out of the Arbitrons entirely.

3. Rock Island IL -- liberal talk station sold to graduate of Bob Jones University (and later a Republican assembly candidate in Wisconsin) who promptly (of course) changes the format.

I'm sure there's a "bidness" explanation that fits any one of these scenarios. Taken as a whole, one begins to wonder...

 

[Holland Cooke]

Typecasting

Claiming 600 affiliates, El Rushbo is radio’s biggest act. That’s Good News AND Bad News…

• The Good News: Maha Rushie’s recent $400 million deal sends the marketplace the message that radio is (still) big. Hopefully, this will inure to radio better than Howard Stern’s deal did to Sirius. Hey, timing is everything. Sean Hannity also negotiated a fat new deal in 2008…a deal so big that Citadel couldn’t swing it alone.

• The Bad News: Who’s going to pay for it: affiliates, via additional in-program inventory and morning drive and weekend programming cram-downs. When I’ve heard Rush weekend hours, I’ve heard dated material (i.e., references to what-was-happening-at-the-time several days ago). Premiere couldn’t at least flag the-least-dated-segments from 15 weekday hours, and cobble-together three that don’t scream “RE-RUN?”

The angst I’m hearing from affiliate station managers and owners about fee hikes and cram-downs is loud-and-clear.
And they’re concerned that they have “lost control of the programming.”

Don’t get me wrong.
I consult Talk stations, so Rush Limbaugh has helped me earn a living.
Politically, I’m agnostic.
I have two playbooks.
Where my client station is the Limbaugh affiliate, he’s the biggest star on radio.
Where we compete, he’s the biggest buffoon on radio.

Ideally, the station would feature an engaging local voice.

Realistically, we’re often better-off with, than without, Rush (who is utterly un-helpful to affiliates) and Sean (who has been exceedingly generous to my affiliated client stations).

But the 2008 presidential and congressional elections rub-radio’s-nose-in-it: By preaching-only-to-the-converted, and talking-about-the-same-thing-every-day, our format’s top two talkers, and all the wanna-be's -- are at-a-disconnect from the consumers your advertisers want to meet…the folks who just voted for "that one," notwithstanding the relentless campaign to-the-contrary from Talk radio, which has allowed itself to be typecast.

HC
www.HollandCooke.com

 

[amfmxm]

I ralize the Mays boys contribute heavily to Republicans, but from the business standpoint, it is about the beans!

In San Diego--a county where Obama beat McCain by 9 points (90,000 votes) CC runs rightwing talk on their big AM stick KOGO and flips 1360 from lib talk to sports talk and goes from a 1.6 to a 0.4.

In Columbus, where Obama beat McCain by 20 percent (59% to 39%) they flip 1230 to an echo chamber of their rightwing monster 610/WTVN--different lineup, same content--with no improvement in ratings (revenue).

FWIW, 1360/KLSD's numbers--in the 1.5 to 2.0 range--were only slightly below where Clear Channel's Class B FM Country loser KUSS 95.7 is right now. Liberal talk on 95.7 would be huge in SD.

Either these guys can't read stats or it ain't about the beans.

 

[SeanMGilbow]

In Columbus, where Obama beat McCain by 20 percent (59% to 39%) they flip 1230 to an echo chamber of their rightwing monster 610/WTVN--different lineup, same content--with no improvement in ratings (revenue).

Actually, the ratings for 1230 have not been the same as when it had progressive talk, and WVKO beat 1230 in the last book.

And in spite how Don feels about Stephanie Miller, she gets the highest listenership on the station.

As for the rest of the banter (and I respect Holland Cooke's insights on all this), I throw out this question: Where do you expect this industry to be four years from now?

In spite of talk about resurrection of the Fairness Doctrine, the real issue is whether the FCC under a Democratic majority will promote ownership diversity. We continue to see massive layoffs in this industry by the major media companies who bought up hundreds of stations and now are bleeding cash through a vicious cycle of decreased ad revenue, which leads to decreased staffing and decreased local programming and increased reliance on the satellite dish, leading to further drops in ad revenue. And the cycle continues.

Satellite radio and iPods will never take the place of radio with a true local identity. If there is one sharing of the wealth I want to see happen in the next four years, it is through investing it in local talent with local ties to the community.

I again must cite Akron as a good example of how local radio works. Meida-Com's WNIR, the #1 station in the market, is talk, and it's all local in the daytime. The Rubber City Radio Group (rock station WONE, country station WQMX and oldies station WAKR) has been recognized by the Associated Press as best news operation in Ohio (medium market) for several consecutive years. Clear Channel's Akron operations don't get the same ratings. And there have been no layoffs reported by Media-Com or RCRG anytime recently.

Of course, a little more civility would be nice among the nation's talkers. But local programming will be the key to which stations will survive and thrive in this recession.

Until that happens with us, there are at least two talkers (Stephanie Miller and Ed Schultz) who have been here and are pulling for our success in Columbus. But as Ed Schultz says repeatedly, "Ownership has its privileges."

 

[Don62]

And in spite how Don feels about Stephanie Miller, she gets the highest listenership on the station.

Sean,
Stephanie can take the award for being the biggest boob on radio.

Her "The Democrats are the party that's always right" statement puts her easily into that category.
She did say that on Larry King during the election.

Who in their right mind would say such a thing about any party? Even Big Eddie often says he's not a typical Democrat who isn't going to play by the rules some think he should play by. Miller's right there in lockstep with a party. How independent and intelligent of such a mental midget who can only rely on cheap humor.

Ms. Miller has an intelligence gap so big you could drive a truck through it.

 

[SeanMGilbow]

DON: IT'S A COMEDY SHOW. FOR HEAVEN'S SAKE...LIGHTEN UP, MAN!! ;D

 

[jh]

ralize the Mays boys contribute heavily to Republicans, but from the business standpoint, it is about the beans!

Then explain these past "bidness" scenarios...

1. Miami -- as mentioned above, liberal morning show beats co-owned conservative talk morning show in the ratings. Conservative show stays in place, liberal show gutted and replaced with (non-liberal) Imus.

2. San Diego, Columbus OH -- liberal formats on crippled signals with small but steady ratings dumped -- replacement stations fall out of the Arbitrons entirely.

3. Rock Island IL -- liberal talk station sold to graduate of Bob Jones University (and later a Republican assembly candidate in Wisconsin) who promptly (of course) changes the format.

I'm sure there's a "bidness" explanation that fits any one of these scenarios. Taken as a whole, one begins to wonder...

In Miami, which morning show was billing more? That would mean more than the ratings, which from what I saw posted, weren't very good for either.

In Rock Island, CC was over the market caps and had to end their LMA. The liberal format had less than a share on a perfectly good signal. Before that CC had a couple of automated music formats with higher ratings. Whoever owned it (CC shell corporation?) sold it to the Bob Jones guy, who apparently failed with paid religion and its now Spanish.

 

[Elephant]

Sean...As I posted on the Columbus board, it's disingenuous to say that WVKO beat WYTS when both stations 12+ number are below a 1 share. A 0.6 and a 0.8 are statistically tied. And, such a small sample is unreliable. WYTS's 3 book average is about a 0.6, while WVKO's is about a 0.7.

I will amend that statement if you can provide us with M-F 6a-7p cume and AQH numbers for both stations. Let's see which ones actually have the strengths and weaknesses. Weekends are less importamnt, but a Sat-Sun 6a-7p would also be helpful in determining how many people are actually tuning in and how many are staying tuned in.

Can you provide that info? Anybody else got Columbus breakouts?

For fun, we could look at the same numbers for WTDA to get a sense of what they're doing.

 

[SeanMGilbow]

Sean...As I posted on the Columbus board, it's disingenuous to say that WVKO beat WYTS when both stations 12+ number are below a 1 share. A 0.6 and a 0.8 are statistically tied. And, such a small sample is unreliable. WYTS's 3 book average is about a 0.6, while WVKO's is about a 0.7.

I will amend that statement if you can provide us with M-F 6a-7p cume and AQH numbers for both stations. Let's see which ones actually have the strengths and weaknesses. Weekends are less importamnt, but a Sat-Sun 6a-7p would also be helpful in determining how many people are actually tuning in and how many are staying tuned in.

Can you provide that info? Anybody else got Columbus breakouts?

For fun, we could look at the same numbers for WTDA to get a sense of what they're doing.

Elephant...providing such information would be in violation of Radio-Info's Terms of Service. Further, as is the case with my real job with the BMV, I would never provide non-public information to an anonymous entity.

 

[Elephant]

Sean...what are you talking about? Everybody's got numbers to share. Cumes and AQHs are part of the Arbitron ratings. Don't you even know what they mean? They're not private at all.

 

[amfmxm]

Sean...As I posted on the Columbus board, it's disingenuous to say that WVKO beat WYTS when both stations 12+ number are below a 1 share. A 0.6 and a 0.8 are statistically tied. And, such a small sample is unreliable. WYTS's 3 book average is about a 0.6, while WVKO's is about a 0.7.

I will amend that statement if you can provide us with M-F 6a-7p cume and AQH numbers for both stations. Let's see which ones actually have the strengths and weaknesses. Weekends are less importamnt, but a Sat-Sun 6a-7p would also be helpful in determining how many people are actually tuning in and how many are staying tuned in.

Can you provide that info? Anybody else got Columbus breakouts?

For fun, we could look at the same numbers for WTDA to get a sense of what they're doing.

To get true perspective on the Columbus situation, you've got to step back from the decimal points separating these two underpowered radio stations and dissecting tiny demos & dayparts.

The big picture is that Columbus is a Democratic market, evidenced (again) by the huge 20-point win by the Dems in this week's election. Columbus isn't just a little bit Blue, it's (pardon the Michigan reference) Big Blue.

So what does Clear Channel program on the market's one mega-signal radio station--WTVN--the station that has been #1 or #2 in Columbus since Arbitron began surveying the town 60 years ago? Conservative Talk. And where do they put Progressive Talk? On the tiny and long-dead 1230 stick (BTW, back when that was Top 40 WCOL-AM, it was a killer). And when it doesn't rack up huge numbers, what does CC do? Flip it to more Conservative Talk. In a city that just voted overwhelmingly (again) Democratic.

Cynics will say "Yeah, but WTVN is #1." Hey, they've been #1 as long as any of us have been alive. If they put something on that huge signal that the majority of Columbus residents actually wanted to hear, WTVN would be even bigger. What they've done with 1230 is just adding insult to injury.

Knowing CC's political position, it is hard not to believe that what they've done in Columbus is intentional: helping the GOP keep the base incited in the largest city of the state that decided the 2004 election and will likely remain a "swing state" for years to come. But now, even the rest of Ohio is Blue.

I believe that what Holland Cooke has suggested is that Talk Radio programmers & managers need to step back at this point and reassess their content, at this point, given the landslide against the views they've been espousing for so long. In other words, it is time to be smart.

Columbus would be a great place to start.

 

[Elephant]

amfmxm...If that's the case, how do you explain Portland? The Progressive station is 25kw KPOJ at 620 AM. The Rush Limbaugh station is KEX at 1190 with 50kw. By your thinking, KPOJ should be huge in a liberal market like Portland. It gets a 3.1 share (#11), while KEX gets a 4.6 (#3). Add the other conservative station, KXL with a 2.7 share (#16), and KPOJ has less than half the share of the other two. There is absolutely no signal issue with KPOJ. It appears to have a better daytime signal than the other two, and the night signal is comparable.

Please explain.

 

[amfmxm]

amfmxm...If that's the case, how do you explain Portland? The Progressive station is 25kw KPOJ at 620 AM. The Rush Limbaugh station is KEX at 1190 with 50kw. By your thinking, KPOJ should be huge in a liberal market like Portland. It gets a 3.1 share (#11), while KEX gets a 4.6 (#3). Add the other conservative station, KXL with a 2.7 share (#16), and KPOJ has less than half the share of the other two. There is absolutely no signal issue with KPOJ. It appears to have a better daytime signal than the other two, and the night signal is comparable.

Please explain.

Oh, nothing to be ashamed of there! KPOJ is certainly a Progressive Talk success story. And the 12+ numbers are extremely misleading.

With 25-kw @ 620, KPOJ's two-tower DA daytime signal is solid and competitive with both KEX and KXL, but their 10-kw DA night signal is significantly weaker than KEX's 50-kw fulltime rig and KXL's 50k/20k signal on 750. That drop to night power is an issue during both drives over half the year.

Beyond that, KPOJ is local only during morning drive while KEX has local talent in both drives. The two stations also have very different histories and KEX enjoys the kind of long-established branding that 620 never achieved. That makes a big difference with the oldtimers (65+) who puff up the KEX/KXL 12+ rankings.

But KPOJ has great demo numbers--beating both KEX and KXL in A18-49, A25-54 and A35-64. KEX & KXL kill KPOJ in Adults 65+ but who gives a sh*t. With all due respect.

For Clear Channel's sellers in Portland, KPOJ is the lead dog in their Right-Left Combo. And, frankly, that's a GREAT pitch!

 

[talkjim]

amfmxm...If that's the case, how do you explain Portland? The Progressive station is 25kw KPOJ at 620 AM. The Rush Limbaugh station is KEX at 1190 with 50kw. By your thinking, KPOJ should be huge in a liberal market like Portland. It gets a 3.1 share (#11), while KEX gets a 4.6 (#3). Add the other conservative station, KXL with a 2.7 share (#16), and KPOJ has less than half the share of the other two. There is absolutely no signal issue with KPOJ. It appears to have a better daytime signal than the other two, and the night signal is comparable.

Please explain.

I'll be happy to explain, Elephant. KPOJ is huge--you are looking at 12 plus numbers, which are meaningless to advertisers. I haven't seen the spring ARB, but in the winter book, KPOJ was the only talk station to be included in Portland's top ten, 25-54. Again, KPOJ is huge and healthy.