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What Will Buffalo Radio Look Like In 2 Years?
- Thread starter Steven21
- Start date
A
alw
Guest
In 2 years Buffalo Radio will look alot like Wilfred Brimley!
N
NeedsMoreCowbell
Guest
Good grief. YES.
Enough doom and gloom. Recessions don't last forever, people. I've been in this business for almost 30 years, everything is cyclical. For God's sake, this board knows more about the state of radio than the effin Buffalo News!
Enough doom and gloom. Recessions don't last forever, people. I've been in this business for almost 30 years, everything is cyclical. For God's sake, this board knows more about the state of radio than the effin Buffalo News!
NeedsMoreCowbell said:
If you think that the problems facing radio are indicative of something cyclical, then you are letting your guard down. Implying this problem is a cycle, also implies it will correct itself.
The exodus/expulsion of talent from this business is not cyclical, it is a wholesale change of course that may irreparably damage this product for the foreseeable future.
Excellent point and that leads me to ask a question to all of you who identify as an "ex full time radio person": let's say the economy gets better - and you were offered a full time radio gig, would you do so?
My answer: unless it's some pie in the sky deal(and that ain't gonna happen) I say a resounding noooooooooo. To quote The Who: "won't get fooled again." Anyone who's found there's life - and new career - after radio and chucks it all to get back in the biz, is generally a fool.
Steven21 said:
One of the best written summations ever posted. Key word: "expulsion," as in purge. Kudos.
And yes, posters on this board have clearly proved that they know more about the business of radio "than the effin Buffalo News." The story in Tuesday's News left much to be desired.
Corporate's Five Year Plan
In five years there will be some great radio in Buffalo, with a wealth of personalities doing well-researched shows featuring an incredible variety of music.
They'll be available on-demand from Internet radio stations.
As far as OTA radio is concerned? Hours of syndicrap with an occasional live jock - most likely on WYRK. Ever shrinking audiences, and corporate blaming "new media".
In five years there will be some great radio in Buffalo, with a wealth of personalities doing well-researched shows featuring an incredible variety of music.
They'll be available on-demand from Internet radio stations.
As far as OTA radio is concerned? Hours of syndicrap with an occasional live jock - most likely on WYRK. Ever shrinking audiences, and corporate blaming "new media".
O
OttoM
Guest
Re: Corporate's Five Year Plan
Which will still be receivable by less than 10% of the population. Now in 20 years? That's more likely the timeframe for internet radio to become ubiquitous.
Hey, don't forget Joe Chille - he'll still be doing mornings on 'JYE!
SirRoxalot said:
Which will still be receivable by less than 10% of the population. Now in 20 years? That's more likely the timeframe for internet radio to become ubiquitous.
SirRoxalot said:
Hey, don't forget Joe Chille - he'll still be doing mornings on 'JYE!
2 years isn't much time really, ...I think that more ad money will come in via the air and the web, that money will be used to pay for more sales managers that radio doesn't need.
New talent will not stay for long, I haven't seen one person in the last 5 years stick it out in buffalo, they all end up in a different career or in a different state. Younger people expect more, especially when they make more money at their Mighty Taco/Aldi's/Bank Teller Job ....
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that the lake will flip, probably back to country, but I think it might be sold off. Look for changes at the EDGE as Shredd and Regan are the only anchor...they might try to syndicate which will fail horribly...wyrk will start to lose market share that will cause a personnel change maybe a whole station makeover.
New talent will not stay for long, I haven't seen one person in the last 5 years stick it out in buffalo, they all end up in a different career or in a different state. Younger people expect more, especially when they make more money at their Mighty Taco/Aldi's/Bank Teller Job ....
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that the lake will flip, probably back to country, but I think it might be sold off. Look for changes at the EDGE as Shredd and Regan are the only anchor...they might try to syndicate which will fail horribly...wyrk will start to lose market share that will cause a personnel change maybe a whole station makeover.
It's not just Buffalo. If you don't have a high profile morning show better start looking for a job...fast!
A staff meeting today could be held in a phone booth....if you could find one!
A staff meeting today could be held in a phone booth....if you could find one!
A
AndrewLawson
Guest
Two years? That's a lifetime. There is no long term plan for radio today because the check has come due for the drunken spending spree that station groups went on years ago. Now it's time for sales, promotion and on-air employees to pick up the tab.
And why is it that whenever the Buffalo News does a radio story bemoaning the decreasing local content of Buffalo radio on stations like 97 Rock, WHTT or WBUF, the exemplary stations mentioned are usually WBNY, WXRL, WECK and WLVL, with quotes from Ramblin Lou Schriver or Dick Greene accompanied by a photo of a WXRL staff member whose last name is fill-in-the-blank Schriver? It's admirable to know there's a family-run radio station, but from what I see on Radio & Records it's not a business model that will get a radio station even a 2 share. Just how many non-family members work at WXRL and how much they get paid. It's a rhetorical question.
The GMs of Regent, Entercom and Citadel must laugh out loud when they read stories like the one that appeared in Tuesday's News. If those low-rated AM stations are the definition of localism, then Entercom, Citadel and Regent are on the right track by making personnel cuts, operating no-live-dj stations like Jack and putting Ryan Seacrest, the sappy Delilah and the dreadful John Tesh on their stations. They say women love these shows. I say, "Look what washed up on the shore and ruined the beach."
The News story made no mention that Citadel's financial problems are due in large part to the perfect storm of its purchase of the ABC radio group and the downturn in the economy. Reading the financial pages of the Wall Street Journal and other on-line publications, Citadel is scheduled to make a hefty interest payment in the second quarter of this year. Many experts say the company will have to scrape together every dime to make that payment and those dimes are coming not from the CEO or COO but by from slicing payrolls and salary cuts.
The Buffalo News often publishes full page promotional pieces claiming to be the largest circulated newspaper (excluding USA Today) not only Buffalo but the United States. The News usually is a good yardstick for measuring the advertising trends in Western New York, but from my reading, column inch advertising content appears to have decreased by at least 50%. If the News is hurting, there's no doubt radio and TV are hurting just as much if not more and it's going to be bad for at least the next 12 to 18 months.
And why is it that whenever the Buffalo News does a radio story bemoaning the decreasing local content of Buffalo radio on stations like 97 Rock, WHTT or WBUF, the exemplary stations mentioned are usually WBNY, WXRL, WECK and WLVL, with quotes from Ramblin Lou Schriver or Dick Greene accompanied by a photo of a WXRL staff member whose last name is fill-in-the-blank Schriver? It's admirable to know there's a family-run radio station, but from what I see on Radio & Records it's not a business model that will get a radio station even a 2 share. Just how many non-family members work at WXRL and how much they get paid. It's a rhetorical question.
The GMs of Regent, Entercom and Citadel must laugh out loud when they read stories like the one that appeared in Tuesday's News. If those low-rated AM stations are the definition of localism, then Entercom, Citadel and Regent are on the right track by making personnel cuts, operating no-live-dj stations like Jack and putting Ryan Seacrest, the sappy Delilah and the dreadful John Tesh on their stations. They say women love these shows. I say, "Look what washed up on the shore and ruined the beach."
The News story made no mention that Citadel's financial problems are due in large part to the perfect storm of its purchase of the ABC radio group and the downturn in the economy. Reading the financial pages of the Wall Street Journal and other on-line publications, Citadel is scheduled to make a hefty interest payment in the second quarter of this year. Many experts say the company will have to scrape together every dime to make that payment and those dimes are coming not from the CEO or COO but by from slicing payrolls and salary cuts.
The Buffalo News often publishes full page promotional pieces claiming to be the largest circulated newspaper (excluding USA Today) not only Buffalo but the United States. The News usually is a good yardstick for measuring the advertising trends in Western New York, but from my reading, column inch advertising content appears to have decreased by at least 50%. If the News is hurting, there's no doubt radio and TV are hurting just as much if not more and it's going to be bad for at least the next 12 to 18 months.
Hard Pressed
There's a simple reason why you don't get quotes from "corporate representatives" in the Buffalo News. Nobody from corporate will talk to them on the record. Between "corporate policy", and "whack-a-mole syndrome" (stick your head up and you're likely to get whacked), nobody making a paycheck will talk to the press.
Otherwise, you're right on the (lack of) money.
AndrewLawson said:
There's a simple reason why you don't get quotes from "corporate representatives" in the Buffalo News. Nobody from corporate will talk to them on the record. Between "corporate policy", and "whack-a-mole syndrome" (stick your head up and you're likely to get whacked), nobody making a paycheck will talk to the press.
Otherwise, you're right on the (lack of) money.
Re: Corporate's Five Year Plan
An observation from one who's not in the business, and living in the boonies of Allegany County where there's not much of a choice of genres locally. In 5 years I believe internet radio will be in full blossom. Having become disappointed on what's become of XM since the Sirius takeover and gutting, the majority of my radio listening is now done via the internet. Mainly WYSL mornings, and either Pandora, and sometimes Accuradio the rest of the day. Evenings, it's Live 365 for the old time radio programs...one can't ask for better programs from OTR.
Several coworkers, and friends are now listening to internet stations, as well as some family. Unfortunately, most stations carry the same tired syndicated programs, and IBOC ruins the AM night time listening, so what's left? IMHO internet radio...bringing back what radio was when I was a kid...and loving every listening minute!
Rob Stutson said:
An observation from one who's not in the business, and living in the boonies of Allegany County where there's not much of a choice of genres locally. In 5 years I believe internet radio will be in full blossom. Having become disappointed on what's become of XM since the Sirius takeover and gutting, the majority of my radio listening is now done via the internet. Mainly WYSL mornings, and either Pandora, and sometimes Accuradio the rest of the day. Evenings, it's Live 365 for the old time radio programs...one can't ask for better programs from OTR.
Several coworkers, and friends are now listening to internet stations, as well as some family. Unfortunately, most stations carry the same tired syndicated programs, and IBOC ruins the AM night time listening, so what's left? IMHO internet radio...bringing back what radio was when I was a kid...and loving every listening minute!
The Internets
Internet penetration in the US is around 75%. High speed Internet penetration is better than 25%, WiFi is widely available in urban areas, and WiMax is due to roll out this year from Sprint and Clearwire. Cellular wireless is growing in both numbers and speed, and costs are coming down.
Rob's number is low - especially in commercial spaces and offices, where a lot of background listening takes place. Services like Slacker can put a cheap (under $100.00) Internet appliance in your hands - supplanting any need for satellite radio. Or, take an old computer with a network card, connect to the Internet, and plug the output of the sound card into your stereo. Price? Nearly free.
Radio still is the ultimate portable device, but that window of opportunity is closing. Think about the changes in cellular phones and Internet access in the last 20 years. Do you really think that it will take 20 years to get cheap, reliable wireless Internet access in urban/suburban areas?
If you want the whole story, check out this research report.
Internet penetration in the US is around 75%. High speed Internet penetration is better than 25%, WiFi is widely available in urban areas, and WiMax is due to roll out this year from Sprint and Clearwire. Cellular wireless is growing in both numbers and speed, and costs are coming down.
Rob's number is low - especially in commercial spaces and offices, where a lot of background listening takes place. Services like Slacker can put a cheap (under $100.00) Internet appliance in your hands - supplanting any need for satellite radio. Or, take an old computer with a network card, connect to the Internet, and plug the output of the sound card into your stereo. Price? Nearly free.
Radio still is the ultimate portable device, but that window of opportunity is closing. Think about the changes in cellular phones and Internet access in the last 20 years. Do you really think that it will take 20 years to get cheap, reliable wireless Internet access in urban/suburban areas?
If you want the whole story, check out this research report.
B
Bob1370
Guest
WBEN, WGR, WBLK, 97Rock, WBFO and WNED's family of stations will all sound and be staffed a lot the same as they are today. They each cater to consistently reliable audiences that support them well. WBLK may well decide to go back to a local morning show to boost its share, and they'd be well advised to do so for their own long term benefit. But other than that, barring death or retirement it'll be the usual cast of characters (and in case of death or retirement, the lost folks will be replaced). It's possible WYRK may also be strong enough to hold the line and remain largely local and live.
Everyone else may well be swamped in a flurry of changes. Unless the economy rebounds quickly, none of those changes in the contemporary and AC music will be for the better, I'm sorry to say.
Everyone else may well be swamped in a flurry of changes. Unless the economy rebounds quickly, none of those changes in the contemporary and AC music will be for the better, I'm sorry to say.
Bob1370 said:
We can only hope, but time will tell. WBFO voicetracks its nightly jazz show, so it's no better than what listeners now hear on 97 Rock
At least for now.
Tom Joyner kills in morning drive, top 5 Persons 25-54, often top 3. Local would be nice, of course, but why mess with success. Isn't Joyner an ABC syndicated property? And he makes life difficult for 97 Rock... owned by Citadel-ABC. Such irony.
Death or retirement. Wonderful dichotomy, to say nothing of choice of words considering...
Everyone else may well be swamped in a flurry of changes. Unless the economy rebounds quickly, none of those changes in the contemporary and AC music will be for the better, I'm sorry to say.
Bill Lacy would look quite fetching in a Stetson, black or white. Perhaps a slight resemblance to Garth Brooks. Froggie 104? Dear lord, Yeziknowradio will be full of glee. Never happen because it costs money to change formats. We'll likely see three ACs with two at the top and the third no more than a stone in a shoe. As to the Lake, the crickets and lapping water will forever chirp and flow. David Field loves the format, even if it can't break a 3 share. It's owner's perogative to have a 20kW iPod that he can hear on line in Philly.
Anyone who thinks the popularity of internet radio will have to wait until mobile broadband reaches critical mass hasn't produced audio programming for the web yet. After moving to the internet after a 30-year radio career, I have had a sobering epiphany.
I've been producing industry-niche podcasts for the better part of the decade. About six years ago, I started hearing from listeners who were using podcasts of our syndicated weekend radio show in their cars during their Monday morning commute. I'd ask, "what about traffic and weather?" They all replied that they found radio traffic reports hard to use, they got weather before they left the house, and nothing on the radio trumped arriving at the office with a head start on news from their own industries.
A few mentioned that morning radio wasted their time with too much pop-culture crap, and that they always seemed to tune in during the middle of something, hearing the punchline without the lame setup. (Or, tuned in just in time for the start of a long stopset.)
The point? Internet-delivered audio content doesn't have to be delivered in real-time, because most of what's on the radio is either not live, or not relevant to listeners!
Once car audio systems start incorporating MP3 players, (some aircraft already have them built into the audio panels,) podcasts will become almost as easy to use as radio. I don't know exactly how they'll be set up, but let's assume your band selector now has as choices AM/FM/XM/CD/MP3/Aux. You dock your ipod, choose MP3, and your preset buttons now become start buttons for five or six 5-minute podcasts, all received via RSS about 4am.
One is a traditional news/weather package custom to your market, or even to your zip code; one is sports, chosen from a dozen available on the internet; one is a new music sampler underwritten by the labels; one is a five-minute recap of late-night comedy shows, and one is an industry-specific briefing unique to your profession called "Aerospace Update," "Mining and Resource Daily," "Western New York Farm Report," or any of hundreds of other available narrowcasts.
Sure, they're all pre-recorded. But most of the radio day is now filled with pre-recorded music, hosted by pre-recorded hosts, interrupted for 7 minutes at a time by pre-recorded commercials. Or, talk radio shows that are not local, not live, or both. What's the advantage in your expensive FCC license and transmitter if you're not doing much programming that requires them?
Don't think adults will adopt podcasts? I produce three daily podcasts for the aviation and aerospace industries, including long-form news of about 15 minutes, a feature interview with a newsmaker of about the same length, and a 4-minute shortie. In-car listening is already a significant usage mode, and I average 20,000 downloads a day. This is in an older demographic not generally associated with the Ipod, and qualitative is through the roof.
Nearly all cars now have aux jacks for MP3 players. Ford's Sync system lets you dock your Ipod in the armrest and control from the dashboard, or hands-free with your voice. Chryslers have had built-in 40-gig hard drives for two years now. For now, you still have to remember to take your MP3 player back and forth to the car, but not for long. I can forsee a wifi-enabled car audio system that dowloads the morning podcasts directly from your home wireless network, right there in the driveway, and preloads your buttons with whatever you chose using your home computer.
There will always be a role for live, local, over-the-air radio, especially in markets like Buffalo, where weather can become a life-and-death issue. But there won't be more than a handful of stations with the ability to provide live service at such times.
I keep hearing industry people say, "radio has been declared dead before, and it's always pulled through." No...electronically-delivered audio content is what's always pulled through. The difference now is it doesn't require a transmitter.
How ironic that the very bandwidth for which the big corporate radio strip miners overpaid is now bankrupting them, and their reaction is to eliminate live, local programming, hastening the obsolescence of those very transmitters.
I've been producing industry-niche podcasts for the better part of the decade. About six years ago, I started hearing from listeners who were using podcasts of our syndicated weekend radio show in their cars during their Monday morning commute. I'd ask, "what about traffic and weather?" They all replied that they found radio traffic reports hard to use, they got weather before they left the house, and nothing on the radio trumped arriving at the office with a head start on news from their own industries.
A few mentioned that morning radio wasted their time with too much pop-culture crap, and that they always seemed to tune in during the middle of something, hearing the punchline without the lame setup. (Or, tuned in just in time for the start of a long stopset.)
The point? Internet-delivered audio content doesn't have to be delivered in real-time, because most of what's on the radio is either not live, or not relevant to listeners!
Once car audio systems start incorporating MP3 players, (some aircraft already have them built into the audio panels,) podcasts will become almost as easy to use as radio. I don't know exactly how they'll be set up, but let's assume your band selector now has as choices AM/FM/XM/CD/MP3/Aux. You dock your ipod, choose MP3, and your preset buttons now become start buttons for five or six 5-minute podcasts, all received via RSS about 4am.
One is a traditional news/weather package custom to your market, or even to your zip code; one is sports, chosen from a dozen available on the internet; one is a new music sampler underwritten by the labels; one is a five-minute recap of late-night comedy shows, and one is an industry-specific briefing unique to your profession called "Aerospace Update," "Mining and Resource Daily," "Western New York Farm Report," or any of hundreds of other available narrowcasts.
Sure, they're all pre-recorded. But most of the radio day is now filled with pre-recorded music, hosted by pre-recorded hosts, interrupted for 7 minutes at a time by pre-recorded commercials. Or, talk radio shows that are not local, not live, or both. What's the advantage in your expensive FCC license and transmitter if you're not doing much programming that requires them?
Don't think adults will adopt podcasts? I produce three daily podcasts for the aviation and aerospace industries, including long-form news of about 15 minutes, a feature interview with a newsmaker of about the same length, and a 4-minute shortie. In-car listening is already a significant usage mode, and I average 20,000 downloads a day. This is in an older demographic not generally associated with the Ipod, and qualitative is through the roof.
Nearly all cars now have aux jacks for MP3 players. Ford's Sync system lets you dock your Ipod in the armrest and control from the dashboard, or hands-free with your voice. Chryslers have had built-in 40-gig hard drives for two years now. For now, you still have to remember to take your MP3 player back and forth to the car, but not for long. I can forsee a wifi-enabled car audio system that dowloads the morning podcasts directly from your home wireless network, right there in the driveway, and preloads your buttons with whatever you chose using your home computer.
There will always be a role for live, local, over-the-air radio, especially in markets like Buffalo, where weather can become a life-and-death issue. But there won't be more than a handful of stations with the ability to provide live service at such times.
I keep hearing industry people say, "radio has been declared dead before, and it's always pulled through." No...electronically-delivered audio content is what's always pulled through. The difference now is it doesn't require a transmitter.
How ironic that the very bandwidth for which the big corporate radio strip miners overpaid is now bankrupting them, and their reaction is to eliminate live, local programming, hastening the obsolescence of those very transmitters.
A superb and informed analysis from Paul Warren which makes readers seriously think about where the business is at this moment. Are people wrong to think broadcasting seems to be at critical mass with an implosion possible this year. If the present round of layoffs don't help to stabilize the business, could there be more significant layoffs around June?
People in, out and on the periphery of the business are quoted as saying, "I've never seen it like this... ever." There's a sense of disbelief from people who have been in the business for two years and those who've been in the business for thirty years. Imagine the sense of disbelief among the thousands who have been layed off.
As Paul Warren notes, what's already on the radio these days is in large measure, pre-recorded. Commercials, features, music... and yes, those despised voice tracks. NPR's Morning Edition re-cycles with live and recorded features. WBFO voice tracks its jazz shows at night. 97 Rock and the Edge: voice tracked at night; Star and WJYE, satellite delivered at night; Kiss, Ryan Seacrest midday voice tracked; WHTT, voice tracked in midday, nights and all night. WBLK, satellite delivered morning drive. It's chilling but it's reality. Makes you wonder if radio really is providing a product that listeners desire. Many of these programs are well-rated. So conceivably, the argument can be made that "yes, radio is providing a product that listeners want... especially considering the miniscule number of listeners that even the best produced and delivered podcasts deliver."
But Warren's post makes me wonder, especially as he writes about niche programming and how podcasts such as his serve a need and are enthusiastically received. Add to this the way 10-30 year olds listen to radio... or not. Makes one seriously wonder if radio has become a 35+ medium. Imagine what AM radio has become? If this is truly the case, will we see more (FM) radios attions adopting Jack-like (jockless) formats that cater to 30-49 year olds... or maybe more Classic Rock-Classic Hits stations that cater to 50+ listeners... because they're the only ones who are using the medium. It sometimes seems, especially in Buffalo, that the only format capable of consistently attracting 18-34 listeners and carrying them as they age into their 35-54 years is... Country?
It certainly gives the programmer, manager and sales person pause to think... and worry.
Now two questions for Paul and the board at large: Can niche programming evolve and enlarge its base (in which case, it wouldn't be niche programming) and will radio stations "smarten up," evolve and provide a product that attracts more listeners regardless of format? Or will radio devolve to become niche narrowcasters with increasingly narrow and decreasing listenership and eventually fade away?
Your thoughts?
People in, out and on the periphery of the business are quoted as saying, "I've never seen it like this... ever." There's a sense of disbelief from people who have been in the business for two years and those who've been in the business for thirty years. Imagine the sense of disbelief among the thousands who have been layed off.
As Paul Warren notes, what's already on the radio these days is in large measure, pre-recorded. Commercials, features, music... and yes, those despised voice tracks. NPR's Morning Edition re-cycles with live and recorded features. WBFO voice tracks its jazz shows at night. 97 Rock and the Edge: voice tracked at night; Star and WJYE, satellite delivered at night; Kiss, Ryan Seacrest midday voice tracked; WHTT, voice tracked in midday, nights and all night. WBLK, satellite delivered morning drive. It's chilling but it's reality. Makes you wonder if radio really is providing a product that listeners desire. Many of these programs are well-rated. So conceivably, the argument can be made that "yes, radio is providing a product that listeners want... especially considering the miniscule number of listeners that even the best produced and delivered podcasts deliver."
But Warren's post makes me wonder, especially as he writes about niche programming and how podcasts such as his serve a need and are enthusiastically received. Add to this the way 10-30 year olds listen to radio... or not. Makes one seriously wonder if radio has become a 35+ medium. Imagine what AM radio has become? If this is truly the case, will we see more (FM) radios attions adopting Jack-like (jockless) formats that cater to 30-49 year olds... or maybe more Classic Rock-Classic Hits stations that cater to 50+ listeners... because they're the only ones who are using the medium. It sometimes seems, especially in Buffalo, that the only format capable of consistently attracting 18-34 listeners and carrying them as they age into their 35-54 years is... Country?
It certainly gives the programmer, manager and sales person pause to think... and worry.
Now two questions for Paul and the board at large: Can niche programming evolve and enlarge its base (in which case, it wouldn't be niche programming) and will radio stations "smarten up," evolve and provide a product that attracts more listeners regardless of format? Or will radio devolve to become niche narrowcasters with increasingly narrow and decreasing listenership and eventually fade away?
Your thoughts?
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