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What will happen in 2013?
- Thread starter Roger
- Start date
At present I'm just a casual follower of the industry I left 20 years ago (mostly as a DXer). Perhaps that mixed interest is what makes me cynical, somewhat unbiased, and somewhat biased all at the same time.
So, for what that retirement-chair vantage point is worth :
It may be prudent to suggest that 2013 will be a make-or-break year for the AM dial. Many of these properties are value-less now as far as listenership goes. Look for some of the chain acquisitions in recent years to be sold for scrap -- particularly the directional ones. The unique stand-alone locals will do okay and possibly prevail. I don't know how many WGHT Pompton Lakes, or WRNJ Hackettstown or WLNG Long Island's there are in S/WB, but that rightfully local claim to radio service will separate them from the other syndicated messes.
When you have *FM* stations in a financial whirlpool, there are industry-wide problems and syndromes, of course. My own personal contempt for the fast-food/copycat crap/lemming-like approach taken by indistinguishable FM music stations makes an analysis of that band irrelevant.
So I'll sit here with my gift slippers and pipe and gift Canadian Club and hope for the best on the AM dial. Survival of the fittest always has been the rule. If just the 50,000 watt stations and the local outlets survive the playoff races into the winter of 2013, the AM band could wind up sounding much like it did in the Sixties. Fine with me.
So, for what that retirement-chair vantage point is worth :
It may be prudent to suggest that 2013 will be a make-or-break year for the AM dial. Many of these properties are value-less now as far as listenership goes. Look for some of the chain acquisitions in recent years to be sold for scrap -- particularly the directional ones. The unique stand-alone locals will do okay and possibly prevail. I don't know how many WGHT Pompton Lakes, or WRNJ Hackettstown or WLNG Long Island's there are in S/WB, but that rightfully local claim to radio service will separate them from the other syndicated messes.
When you have *FM* stations in a financial whirlpool, there are industry-wide problems and syndromes, of course. My own personal contempt for the fast-food/copycat crap/lemming-like approach taken by indistinguishable FM music stations makes an analysis of that band irrelevant.
So I'll sit here with my gift slippers and pipe and gift Canadian Club and hope for the best on the AM dial. Survival of the fittest always has been the rule. If just the 50,000 watt stations and the local outlets survive the playoff races into the winter of 2013, the AM band could wind up sounding much like it did in the Sixties. Fine with me.
1.WARM will continue to deteriorate.
2. Most small AM stations, if they aren't sold to foreign laguage or religious broadcasters will go by the wayside - over time. (Keep in mind Steve, that WRNJ is also broadcasting on two FM translators which are covering its selling area well - and they promote those two frequencies quite heavily).
All three of the stations mentioned have historically very low cumes but do serve their communities as best they can.
3. More centralization of FM formats from the three or four largest companies. While many of the FM's these days may seem bland, they really are not that bad. Good for background music but there just is not an oh-wow factor anymore.
2. Most small AM stations, if they aren't sold to foreign laguage or religious broadcasters will go by the wayside - over time. (Keep in mind Steve, that WRNJ is also broadcasting on two FM translators which are covering its selling area well - and they promote those two frequencies quite heavily).
All three of the stations mentioned have historically very low cumes but do serve their communities as best they can.
3. More centralization of FM formats from the three or four largest companies. While many of the FM's these days may seem bland, they really are not that bad. Good for background music but there just is not an oh-wow factor anymore.
Some changes in other markets might affect here too, Kew. New York City is half-expecting a city-clearing FM Country signal, for the first time since what seems to be the last sighted milk wagon .....
There re-surfaces the periodic rumor that Clear Channel might be acquired by someone else .....
And Arbitron has been seen in the tabloids sleeping with Nielson. (I look for the possibility that some more markets will be dropped entirely from that list of nearly 300 a year ago) .....
The big-signal FMs will do okay in areas unrated or partially rated, but really, that's a 'duh' statement. 94KX, T-102, WFYY et al will come through fine. They have been operaing without lucid ratings for years.
Magic 93, WKRZ, B104 and others who have been working well with the diary ratings also will come through okay.
I'm a lot less sure about the smaller FMs, though. With the (imo) myopic pursuit shown by the biggest hot-shots to turn the FM major market dials into all-talk for the perception of 'younger demos', some of the Class A stations appear to be the most vulnerable should that concept spreads to here .....
HD radio goes the way of the Edsel, jokes and stigma and all. If anyone in Schuylkill County ever bought an HD radio, it's likely now being used as a footrest under the computer .....
The more of these small AMers that are put to sleep, and the more of the smaller FMs that get relegated to the status of extension-speaker PA systems, the more Internet Radio will become popular. Satellite has peaked. Besides, you have to pay for it. Internet is in the on-deck circle. With newspapers and terrestrial radio stations loading up on the commercial loads on their own promoted websites , the realization must be afoot by management that they're doing a lousy job at physical labor and are facing impending irrelevance .....
But I'm just being glass-half-empty here, lol. Don't mind me.
There re-surfaces the periodic rumor that Clear Channel might be acquired by someone else .....
And Arbitron has been seen in the tabloids sleeping with Nielson. (I look for the possibility that some more markets will be dropped entirely from that list of nearly 300 a year ago) .....
The big-signal FMs will do okay in areas unrated or partially rated, but really, that's a 'duh' statement. 94KX, T-102, WFYY et al will come through fine. They have been operaing without lucid ratings for years.
Magic 93, WKRZ, B104 and others who have been working well with the diary ratings also will come through okay.
I'm a lot less sure about the smaller FMs, though. With the (imo) myopic pursuit shown by the biggest hot-shots to turn the FM major market dials into all-talk for the perception of 'younger demos', some of the Class A stations appear to be the most vulnerable should that concept spreads to here .....
HD radio goes the way of the Edsel, jokes and stigma and all. If anyone in Schuylkill County ever bought an HD radio, it's likely now being used as a footrest under the computer .....
The more of these small AMers that are put to sleep, and the more of the smaller FMs that get relegated to the status of extension-speaker PA systems, the more Internet Radio will become popular. Satellite has peaked. Besides, you have to pay for it. Internet is in the on-deck circle. With newspapers and terrestrial radio stations loading up on the commercial loads on their own promoted websites , the realization must be afoot by management that they're doing a lousy job at physical labor and are facing impending irrelevance .....
But I'm just being glass-half-empty here, lol. Don't mind me.
I am thinki ng HD could still do well. Put a decent product on a station's HD 2 or 3, and promote it like crazy. Problem is that it seems like nobody wants to spend the necessary cash. Almost all new cars are coming with HD. In 3 to 5 years or so it could be a factor if promoted properly - and unlike satellite it is free.
4. More programming (and possibly sales) staff cutbacks from the three or four major broadcasting groups. I would not want to be a young person getting into the business at this point.
4. More programming (and possibly sales) staff cutbacks from the three or four major broadcasting groups. I would not want to be a young person getting into the business at this point.
5. Some more of the most insignificant AM's in each market will pick up one of the half-dozen national sports networks now available. Of course each station will have very few listeners. But each move will garner a lot of talk on the various messsage boards.
WARM will go to 50,000 watts. ;D
(You laugh now, but mark my words!
)
(You laugh now, but mark my words!
)WARM might want to start small - like restoring the 5 kw signal they had about 20 years ago.
They might be a candidate for running the new CBS sports network. An easier sell for the 20 and 30 something sales folk.
Then there is always the possibility that the people who were talking about bring WARM back to its former glory might prevail. Ya know, all those guys who were willing to work for slices of pizza!
They might be a candidate for running the new CBS sports network. An easier sell for the 20 and 30 something sales folk.
Then there is always the possibility that the people who were talking about bring WARM back to its former glory might prevail. Ya know, all those guys who were willing to work for slices of pizza!
Shadoe Steele finds a new radio home.
Ok I'll bite:
Warm goes dark- never returns.
Another jock at Magic leaves. Cost cutting will be the unofficial reason.
Brian Hughes gets a real shot at hosting a weekly talk show. By the end of the year- he gets an offer from WILK to co-host with Sue Henry.
Joe Peters leaves The Talker to run for Mayor of Scranton.
Sean O'Meely is shown the door at Rock 107. Shamrock actually hires a local to run the sales department.
Rock 107 rehires knowledgeable Paul Trama to work weekends again.
And I meet Cindy Crawford. By September, we're vacationing in Australia.
Warm goes dark- never returns.
Another jock at Magic leaves. Cost cutting will be the unofficial reason.
Brian Hughes gets a real shot at hosting a weekly talk show. By the end of the year- he gets an offer from WILK to co-host with Sue Henry.
Joe Peters leaves The Talker to run for Mayor of Scranton.
Sean O'Meely is shown the door at Rock 107. Shamrock actually hires a local to run the sales department.
Rock 107 rehires knowledgeable Paul Trama to work weekends again.
And I meet Cindy Crawford. By September, we're vacationing in Australia.
travist102 said:
He's now hosting a Saturday night oldies show on T-102 in Pottsville
http://www.t102radio.com/index.html
"And I meet Cindy Crawford. By September, we're vacationing in Australia."
Fer shure!
Fer shure!
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