What's the capital missing?

[JohnboyCrenshaw]

Howdy Roo,

Let me start with the fact that I am not a researcher. I hire people with your specialized skill set to tell me what I need to know.

I wasn't dismissing any normalizing factor. How could I, when I don't know what one is? I was responding to an extrapolation you made about half of this with 25% of that equals me being an idiot. Which may be true!

I did think about the population of each township inside each station's coverage area vs. cume of that township, but there aren't enough diaires in a survey to give us an accurate picture. Would total township population vs. overall cume give a "normalizing factor?" I used township because it would give the smallest unit of land mass so that the station with limited coverage would get full reach credit.

I'm still not completely sold on the TSL part of the equation. As my dad once told me, if you charge a million bucks for a cheeseburger, you only have to sell one a year. Perhaps number of tune-ins per week would be a better gauge?

Your explanation is intertesting, as Learner is in my Gallup top 5. I also like thinking in terms of "potential," "if" and "could" on occasion.

Best,
JbC

 

[Nu_Roo_2]

JbC -

I was just throwing out some food for thought and ended up over-geekifying (research geek that is). Sorry. While I stand by my basic geekological reasoning, I can admittedly think of several places where one could throw in a "yes, but..." And also several ways where the comparison of radio to a consumer product might break down a bit.

I sure can't argue with your (and your Dad's and Image99Seven's) contention that Cume is paramount. And as you know, it's going to be even more imporatant with the PPM. Nonetheless, I would think that you'd be a big fan of TSL, given how much it's been contributing to WCOL's continued success. But yes, without sufficient cume the TSL means little -- just as a high buying rate or high brand loyalty won't make a consumer product successful if the overall buyer base is too small.

As for NKO, I still think that getting a signal equal to LZT's could very possibly earn them a bigger 12+ in Columbus than LZT. But that's admittedly a pretty simplistic extrapolation that ignores multiple factors. One of those is the issue you brought up, namely that the data needed for a good normalized, apples-to-apples comparison (e.g., township-level) would likely be too noisy, even using cume alone. (Aha, you DO know what "normalized" means! And I got a nice chuckle out of your unique extrapolation equation, but of course that's NOT what I was trying to imply ).

Yes, # of tune-ins sounds like that might be a good metric to look at, if it's available (or calculatable) with the Arbitron radio ratings data.

Anyway, here's hoping that those occasional thoughts of "potential," "if" and "could" include seriously considering dumping LZT's snail's-pace evolution of the past several years, in favor of a substantial overhaul (whether within or outside of the AC realm).

 

[kentuckymedia]

I have to give Clear Channel credit on LZT. It is doing exactly what it was designed to do, keep NCI and COL at the top of the market food chain. I think Clear Channel banked a few too many dollars in hoping it would topple SNY, however thats not going to happen. WSNY is very local and branded to an extreme in the community. Its "trenched". The only thing that would screw it up is if Saga dropped the ball completely.

RXS on the other hand is just a cluster. They went after a specialized format that hasnt done the best in the past. Yes, they thought they would help take a bite out of WBNS, however it didnt happen as planned, and BNS actually saw increases in core demos. The music on BNS is designed with the "hip-cool Columbus mini-van driver" in mind and thats a great focus to have. It builds a wedge between NCI and SNY.

Wow and congrats to The Brew. RKZ while it shifted older had a stellar 18-34 book, and thats okay. It is truly the flagship of NABCO. It makes me wonder if they will be in the bidding wars for a new signal here or there. NABCO could have done great things with TED-FM if it werent for the worst signal in the metro. The format works, the signal doesnt.

Overall it was an interesting book. It shows that the mini-van mamas want their radio stations and overall radio is healthy.

 

[Nu_Roo_2]

I have to give Clear Channel credit on LZT.  It is doing exactly what it was designed to do, keep NCI and COL at the top of the market food chain. 

In other markets this size that strategy may be OK, but in Columbus it's indefensible to use LZT as nothing more than attack dog.  This was the first new city-grade signal in forty years to show up in a market that's painfully short on them.  (Uh oh, given the current tone of the Presidential campaign, someone will probably call me a Socialist  ...)  CC could have found a way to use that signal to significantly broaden listener choice and add to the corporate coffers at the same time, instead of going straight for the "we're gonna git ya, sucka!" attack.  And I'm NOT referring to anything exotic or cutting edge.  There's more than one way to skin a cat.

Overall it was an interesting book.  It shows that the mini-van mamas want their radio stations and overall radio is healthy.

That's reading a lot into one Summer book, isn't it? But I definitely agree that it was one of the most interesting books in quite awhile. Will be interesting to see if the patterns continue.

 

[kentuckymedia]

Oh, I agree with you completely. If I were told, we are moving 93.3 into Columbus and you can do anything you want as long as you protect the current cluster and make money, I for one would not have chose Sunny to be my target. I would have done that on a signal like 105.7 with that Nationwide stick to get into the downtown office buildings.

However, they made the choice. I dont think its the best choice, but given the format, its pacing quite well with its intended purpose. I think a Classic Hits "WCBS-FM" would do well, but thats where LZT is trying to clear the niche.

Mini-van driving mamas have a lot more power than one thinks, haha. With the rise of Hillary and Sarah, one has to think that the audience is a lot more influential thant one may have previously thought.

BNS is never going to be #1, but its doing what its supposed to as well. RadioHio should be happy with their little Hot AC that could! Look at the 25-54 numbers for NCI, I think that Adult Pop is coming back in full force. Doesnt the CHR pendulum swing every 10 years?

 

[JohnboyCrenshaw]

Random thoughts:

The seemingly indefensible can be defended with research, but only if you know what it says.

Dad hasn't bought or sold any million-dollar cheeseburgers lately.

Clusters are made up of many different parts and may taste differently to different people.

Brews can be robust or bitter, depending on the mix.

Mainstream AC and Soft AC are two different things. Just ask a 30-year-old female.

Best,
JbC

 

[Nu_Roo_2]

I don't know what the research said, but I do know that (in order of degree of cynicism, high to low):

1. Research results can be (and often are) interpreted in such a way that they will lead to whatever conclusion management wants to
hear. E.g. "desired" results can be selectively emphasized and spun, while "non-supportive" results are downplayed or creatively
discredited. (For a very simple example, look at the conflicting assertions being thrown around about the presidential polls.) An intentional
bias can be (and often is) built in at the sample-selection stage, as well.
2. Research can be misinterpreted, usually according to management bias (similar to #1, but less intentional).
3. Research can be honestly interpreted in different ways by different people. LOTS of different ways. I've seen this over and over. Often,
reasonable arguments can be made for very different interpretations.
4. Sometimes the research is wrong. This includes flawed design or execution (e.g. asking the wrong people, or asking the wrong questions,
or asking them in a leading way...or having an insufficient sample size). Or the results could be an outlier. (Unless you sample the
entire population, there's always some chance you came out with the wrong results. It's plain statistics.)
5. Sometimes good research can come back with very surprising, non-intuitive results that are NOT a statistical anomaly.

I would be hard-pressed to believe #5 applied to LZT's format-search, but I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the other 4 coming into play.

Also, re the Mainstream and Soft AC distinction, you're certainly not suggesting that the 30-year-old female knows those industry terms, are you (especially "mainstream")? Even the industry can't get it straight. There are stations which are dubbed Soft AC's (by themseleves and the trades) that are actually much "harder" than other stations dubbed Mainstream AC, and vice versa. On average, LZT actually has more tempo than Sunny (which isn't saying much...). I would think most listeners would consider LZT oldies. I hope 97.1's upswing turns out to indicate the start of a sizable chunk of Columbus females rebelling against the snooziness of their AC's that lie to them about how "upbeat" and "singalong" they are. In the customize-your-own media age, it's going to get harder and harder for radio to get listeners to believe that a station sounds a certain way just because it claims to. As you know, that's a widely-accepted fact and a key watchout for radio; this isn't just Roo talking...

 

[JohnboyCrenshaw]

My assertion was that a 30-year-old female will probably find a mainstream AC palatable, and will probably find a soft AC "too slow" or "too old."

"Oldies" is usually an early 60s-based musical focus with a 50s wing, a late 60s-early 70s wing, and a period-based presentation.

JbC

 

[SportsRadioDoc]

Roo, If you can get 37% of your cume from P1's they will represent 75% of your TSL. My point? Cume/TSL/Listeners, all very important ingredients for success.

 

[MichaelMcCoy]

WLZT is a money maker. WLZT keeps Sunny in the second tier of stations 25-54. Considering the resources alloted, WLZT is doing it's job at a very high level. As to putting on another format that would perform better 12+, that would be easy. I guarantee said format would not be as budgetarily (is there such a word?) effective on both an expense and cash flow basis.

 

[Nu_Roo_2]

"Oldies" is usually an early 60s-based musical focus with a 50s wing, a late 60s-early 70s wing, and a period-based presentation.

That's what listeners tell you?? Would love to see that research! Sure sounds like an industry insider definition to me.

 

[Nu_Roo_2]

WLZT is a money maker. WLZT keeps Sunny in the second tier of stations 25-54. Considering the resources alloted, WLZT is doing it's job at a very high level. As to putting on another format that would perform better 12+, that would be easy. I guarantee said format would not be as budgetarily (is there such a word?)  effective on both an expense and cash flow basis.

You guarantee it?  How did you manage a sneak peek at CC local financials?

 

[Nu_Roo_2]

Roo, If you can get 37% of your cume from P1's they will represent 75% of your TSL. My point? Cume/TSL/Listeners, all very important ingredients for success.

That makes complete sense. But again, once PPM comes to Columbus, won't strategies have to change a bit? In many formats cume will swell with passive listeners, who will bring down TSL. Then it may look more like Top 20% cume = 75% of TSL.

 

[kentuckymedia]

LZT does make money, and it has pulled the chain a time or two on Sunny! Thats what its designed to do. Will it ever overtake Sunny...naw!

 

[radiokiller]

Last I checked, WLZT could care LESS about a 30 year old female. If you listen at all to that station (and I'm guessing NONE of you do) then you'd notice that 45-60 year old men and women are listening..

THAT might be why this HUGE signal is lost. While I jump on a soapbox, the station has an outstanding base and NO ONE CARES. They gain POTENTIAL every November thru Jan. and then lose them and I think the suits know why. Try NOT playing "Ho Ho Ho" one year.

IF they are trying to PROTECT something-what is it? A steamrolling AC station would NOT damage NCI and could never take away COL's core. UNLESS COL isn't as strong as it thinks..and maybe NCI should STOP playing AC music..like Train and start acting like a CHR? A long time ago, CHR programmers accepted they were programming to 16 year olds-because they bought the records!!!! Guesss what-they still do!!

Get real. It isn't protection. The fact is, the programmers need to get it together and focus. LZT COULD be a MAJOR moneymaker and a POTENTIAL player that could actually SUPPORT its sisters..problem is, the sisters don't play nice..so what if it happens to WIN??? Last I checked, that is the name of the game, boys?

Be reasonable, AC is thriving when it is done RIGHT and it is marketable and it is programmed 24/7! WLZT is NOT a bad product. That station has great music, the talent is ON, and ....there ya go.





My two cents...doesn't mean much. Gonna go sweep the floors now..

 

[JohnboyCrenshaw]

My definition of "Oldies" was mine, an industry insider. I didn't assert that it was a listener definition, did I? If I did, my sincere and humble apologies to all involved.

JbC

 

[xianbroadcaster]

Just as long as everybody else is making sweeping assumptions about things they know nothing about I'll put this out there...I've never seen so many people so intense about something they obviously know little or nothing about...the 45-60 year old demo is the aim of 93.3? OK.

If I were to advocate one more station in Columbus it would be something to validate and recognize the growing left handed, chain smoking, hispanic, lesbian, Amish, neo-nazi, skinheads who to this point have been without a station in this city ever since 92X went away. I talk to both of them all the time and while they like WVKO AM, they can't always pick up the signal...and remember they're Amish so the radio has to be outside on the same pole that they have the telephone on and a very small electrical generator.

 

[Nu_Roo_2]

My definition of "Oldies" was mine, an industry insider. I didn't assert that it was a listener definition, did I? If I did, my sincere and humble apologies to all involved.

JbC

I was just trying to get clarification since your definition was in response to my statement, "I would think most listeners would consider LZT oldies." Maybe you just read it too fast and missed the word "listeners," the same way I incorrectly read "share" in one of your posts (different thread) when you actually said "rating." No biggie.

 

[Nu_Roo_2]

If I were to advocate one more station in Columbus it would be something to validate and recognize the growing left handed, chain smoking, hispanic, lesbian, Amish, neo-nazi, skinheads who to this point have been without a station in this city ever since 92X went away.

Get real. Obviously that could never work, unless you make it right-handed.