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When and how will AM die?

Does anyone think that the so-called AM Revitalization plan looks more like a plan to get AM content on the FM band? And even if it's not, can anything really save AM? To be sure, the band is dying and has been for a very long time. How do you think it'll ultimately happen? Will stations go dark one by one? Is there an alternate use for the technology (like the way TV spectrum can be used for mobile)? Will AM implode all at once, forcing companies to find spots on the FM band?
 
There are lots of ways AM radio is being used outside of what we might consider traditional ad-supported consumer radio. The latest is what iHeart has done with 1480 in Philly, turning the frequency over to a hospital. As you drive around, you always see signs for AM stations providing 24/7 traffic info on the NJ and PA Turnpikes, and airport delays. These stations are owned by the state DOTs. Outside of major markets, we see small AMs being used for hobby stations run by retired radio people. So there are a lot of options once AM ceases to be a place for ratings and advertising. That will mean it will not exist for most people, but that's just how it is.
 
I have to agree with TheBigA on this. In lieu of seeing the death of AM radio, perhaps it will be the business model of AM radio that will change. Lower wattage stations will go first.

From the AM Revitalization aspect, I'm waiting to see the struggling AM station targeting the coverage area of the FM translator for listeners. Might it be a new birth of low wattage suburban-styled FM stations targeting a segment of a metro versus the whole city? If tried and successful, who will be the first to ask the FCC to divest of the AM signal and keep the translator as full fledged station? When you think about the upkeep on AM, especially directional arrays, the financial burden of the AM has to be a good reason to ask the FCC to allow the translator to be a 250 watt Class A (perhaps a specifically designated class of class A station) and divest of the AM either through selling it or tuning in the license.
 
I wonder what will happen to the other full power 24/7 Philly AM's: 560, 610, 950, 990, 1060, 1210?
 
How do you think it'll ultimately happen? Will stations go dark one by one? Is there an alternate use for the technology (like the way TV spectrum can be used for mobile)? Will AM implode all at once, forcing companies to find spots on the FM band?

The content will first move to FM. In many cases, this happened years ago as lots of news/talk and sports stations now have simulcasts on FM, at least translators if not full-power. Slowly, licensees will realize that it is not smart business to keep up a 50kW AM transmitter site for a few hundred listeners listeners, and they will either sell, donate, or turn in licenses.

We've already seen this happen in some markets, including large markets.
- The top-rated Nashville AM is 19th in 6+, a market where no AM station earns above a 1.0 share. There are HD2/translator combos that rate higher than WLAC.
- In Atlanta, WSB-AM is listed #1, but it has a total line reporting with FM simulcast partner WSBB-FM. The next highest rated AM is #19, WCNN-AM, which has a translator and an HD2 simulcast.
- In Dallas/Fort Worth, the two highest rated AM stations without a full-power FM simulcast are #21 and 21, 6+.

Some exceptions to the rule may occur in markets with several strong AM signals, such as New York. But in many markets with only directional facilities, AM is already effectively dead.
 
I'll add "where" to the list, and play the converse, where I think it'll stick around the longest.

That's the Midwest, not because more techno-laggards live there, but because good ground conductivity makes AM a little more viable than other areas. Even in the midwest, I don't know if it has another decade.
 
I'll add "where" to the list, and play the converse, where I think it'll stick around the longest.

That's the Midwest, not because more techno-laggards live there, but because good ground conductivity makes AM a little more viable than other areas. Even in the midwest, I don't know if it has another decade.

That's a really good point.

In many markets where the conductivity is very bad (Nashville, Atlanta, DC, Palm Springs) there is, maybe, one station on AM that covers the market somewhat completely. Other markets, such as those in New England, only do a little better. Directional stations designed in the 30's make many stations miss big parts of those lower conductivity markets.
 
I think the death of AM as we know it will provide an opportunity for community groups who have been chomping at the bit to have an on-air presence for decades.

It can become a giant graveyard, filled with low-wattage, nondirectional stations which can be affordably run by such groups. Churches, ethnic groups, community organizations and others would be the obvious candidates.
 
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It can become a giant graveyard, filled with low-wattage, nondirectional stations which can be affordably run by such groups. Churches, ethnic groups, community organizations and others would be the obvious candidates.

The only problem is that all of those groups are tight on money, and owning an AM station is more expensive than an LPFM. Mostly due to the technical side of things.
 
The only problem is that all of those groups are tight on money, and owning an AM station is more expensive than an LPFM. Mostly due to the technical side of things.

I was about to type this exactly! AM seems like a big, expensive dinosaur. How many churches want to pay for dinosaurs? :)
 
^^^^^^^ Some do. Many churches have their sermons broadcast over AM stations in their market, or other markets. Most Christian talk / teaching stations I'm aware of are on AM, not FM, where the Christian music stations are. And such AM's much be making some money, and may continue to do so as FM is already overcrowded in many markets.

If AM dies, and LPAM is the future model, I can see where it would be as viable as an LPFM. There are part 15's that already cover a block or two. To cover a square mile or so on AM, one probably doesn't need a 100 ft tower and extensive ground system. There are 160 meter hams that make do with backyard antennas.
 
^^^^^^^ Some do. Many churches have their sermons broadcast over AM stations in their market, or other markets. Most Christian talk / teaching stations I'm aware of are on AM, not FM,

You're right, but the churches themselves don't own those radio stations. Those are brokered programs, and they pay the landlord.
 
'>> It will die on the 14th of August, 2027, killed by Professor Plumb in the library with a candlestick. << '

Way to go, Abraham! Funniest post I've read in quite a while!

* * * * * * *

A schoolyard buddy of mine once declared 'DX is dead.' He meant AM DX. He scowled that there was no more interesting music to hear on the AM dial anymore. I believed him then, and still do. Three of us four area childhood-friend DXers wound up in radio and in music careers because of the AM magic. But without music on AM anymore, October 2017, there's little inspiration for young radio pups ... little yearn for a high school kid ..... to become enthralled by anything AM has to offer.

John sneered that 'DX is dead' on Feb 7th 1977, by the way.
 
I think all the replies here, plus a few more could apply. Horses and carriages didn't just vanish from the roads once car sales began, they were eliminated over time.

Add to the list of nails in the coffin, is the gradual elimination of AM tuners in new cars by manufacturers. As 'Boomers' gradually die off, fewer consumers ,if any will be keeping, let alone purchasing new portable or integrated AM radios. If an AM station is transmitting but nobody is listening, does it make a sound?

I would argue it's my same generation who have allowed AM radio to meet it's demise, buy not pursuing technological advancements like full-digital transmission on AM when they had the opportunity. Oh AM is fine the way it is.. Why I remember back in my day.. How has that thinking worked?
 
I think all the replies here, plus a few more could apply. Horses and carriages didn't just vanish from the roads once car sales began, they were eliminated over time.

Add to the list of nails in the coffin, is the gradual elimination of AM tuners in new cars by manufacturers. As 'Boomers' gradually die off, fewer consumers ,if any will be keeping, let alone purchasing new portable or integrated AM radios. If an AM station is transmitting but nobody is listening, does it make a sound?

I would argue it's my same generation who have allowed AM radio to meet it's demise, buy not pursuing technological advancements like full-digital transmission on AM when they had the opportunity. Oh AM is fine the way it is.. Why I remember back in my day.. How has that thinking worked?

After hearing HD AM, and imagining digital AM's possibilities, I understand more of what you are saying. Especially when the IBOC didn't make traditional AM receivers obsolete -- allowing for a transitional period between the two technologies. It seems with the AM band there has always been this ability to jettison possible improvements through legal wranglings (AM Stereo) or marketing inefficiencies (HD AM).
 
Around the world people are 'voting with their feet'. I believe that has already happened with SW. And it looks like it is starting to happen with AM. I wish I had a chart of AM's going dark with respect to time. I beleive a chart will show FM's and translators coming up and AM going dark.
 
Hate to have to reply to my own post, but I just found this ...

"The other key takeaway is while FM translators grow in number, in many cases to provide “AM revitalization,” the number of AMs has declined to 4,639, compared to 4,646 on June 30. The AM station count has declined in every quarter since the end of 2016."
 
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