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Where do you see IBOC going?

I predict FM IBOC will become popular at a slow pace and AM IBOC will stall or fail. Now for some wishful thinking: I hope FM IBOC becomes ubiquitis and drags AM along to the point where it could transition to the all-digital mode. While the AM hybrid system is frought with problems, the all-digital mode (not necessarily IBOC) would help AM - if only we could get there.

Putting your personal bias aside, where do you see IBOC or some kind of digital system going for both bands? What would you like to see happen?
 
Len14043 said:
I predict FM IBOC will become popular at a slow pace and AM IBOC will stall or fail. Now for some wishful thinking: I hope FM IBOC becomes ubiquitis and drags AM along to the point where it could transition to the all-digital mode. While the AM hybrid system is frought with problems, the all-digital mode (not necessarily IBOC) would help AM - if only we could get there.

Putting your personal bias aside, where do you see IBOC or some kind of digital system going for both bands? What would you like to see happen?

You are assuming that people will still be buying AM/FM band terrestrial-style radios, satellite-style radios, or things that contain such radios 15, 20 or 25 years from today. On what do you base such an assumption? I hope it's not based on wishful thinking.
 
I'm pretty open-minded about HD Radio, but I draw the line at converting the current AM/FM bands to straight digital. Many people rely on analog signals, and in the event of a catastrophe such as an act of God, blackout or even an attack from a foreign entity, analog signals from far away could actually serve an important purpose. Even if that very signal is a bit fuzzy, at least that's better than no signal at all as a digital.

I believe there is and will be (for a while at least) a use for analog transmission. I also feel that in the future, technology will allow HD Radio and analog to coexist without causing the other any substantial problems. But so far, HD is a work in progress. Then again, who ever thought ten years ago that today, we could carry our entire music collection around in a little device smaller than a deck of cards?
 
Let's not forget that radio began as a digital medium (telegraphy conveyed by switching an RF generator on and off) but when analog telephony came along, this development was heralded as a great advance.

Even today, the "stick value" of a radio license is overwhelmingly based on its ability to reach existing analog receivers. But how many stations have sold at a premium because an IBOC transmitter was installed? For those of you who expect a big payoff "someday", how soon do you think it will happen?

I'm quite concerned that the value of AM licenses are actually in danger of losing value due to received interference from the digital carriers of adjacent channel stations. However, if the FCC allows small-market AM broadcasters to acquire FM translators, this would lead to immediate increases in revenues and increase property values.

So, who are the winners and losers at this stage of the HD game? If I were a grad student majoring in Economics, I would enjoy researching this topic and writing a thesis on the economic impact of digital Radio.
 
But how many stations have sold at a premium because an IBOC transmitter was installed? For those of you who expect a big payoff "someday", how soon do you think it will happen?

Barring a miracle, or gullible buyer, most stations are going to be worth less over the coming years.

I'm quite concerned that the value of AM licenses are actually in danger of losing value due to received interference from the digital carriers of adjacent channel stations.

AM radio has the same listeners it had 40 years ago, the medians are over 50 now. Digital splash are is the least of the problem, in all but a few cases.

However, if the FCC allows small-market AM broadcasters to acquire FM translators, this would lead to immediate increases in revenues and increase property values.

-If such slots exist in a service area. Wi-Fi/WiMax is probably the best most can hope for, it'll be a decade before that is a viable alternative.

So, who are the winners and losers at this stage of the HD game?

Equipment manufacturers.

As I see it, digital has major advantages but with all the competing technologies, iboc may just help stem the loss of listeners. May.

Lino
 
I am a fan of HD on FM. Saying something doesn't make it so, and people who are frustrated with AM HD, and consequently lump FM HD in with their digital-bashing are doing themselves, and the technology a disservice.

Having said that, I agree with FightingIrish in "drawing the line" at all digital for either band. I believe, as others have stated, that FM will become accepted, but at a pace that will surprise everyone but those of us old enough to remember that EVERY technology transition in the broadcasting world has taken many years (usually decades). As for AM HD, I hope the problems (shockingly limited coverage even for high power signals, interference, limited fidelity for the existing 99.99999999999999999 percent of the audience listening to ANALOG, and the stupidity of pissing them off!) can be solved, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if AM HD becomes the Betamax, ro worse still the Elcassette of the broadcast world (wait, those failed technologies actually worked well!)

I'm also an avid AM dxer, who has invested LOTS of money in AM radios with GOOD fidelity. I've even maintained my SRF-A100 in factory-new condition (it still has the "It's a Sony" label on it, and it rests each evening in the sealable travel case that came with it. AM HD DOES exhibit much better noise performance than anything offered in the AM Band before...it's hard to argue with a s/n ratio of 96db on the AM BAND! But at 32kbps and below, artifacts can become quite noticable. I've yet to hear an example of AM HD that sounds better than analog C-Quam AM stereo. So it's not a horrible idea for stations that still have C-Quam gear in their racks to "make some lemonade", and look at these new "HD Radios" as something entirely different...the greatest infusion of NEW AM stereo radios since the 80s (after all, just about all of 'em can do C-Quam!)

As for why we'd believe that terrestrial radio will be around in 25 years or so, I would remind people who think like that that terrestrial radio has survived every threat, and THRIVED. It's (AM and FM radio) still "the dog". Satellite and internet are "the tail". For a fan of the technology with 15 million total listeners (XM and Sirius) to worry about the long-term survivability of the technology with more than a quarter of a billion domestic listeners is kind of funny. Even the most pessimistic prognostication (based upon trends the last few years) is that over the next couple of decades terrestrial could lose 15-25 percent of it's audience. I doubt that. It's only the young who think things are financially "terrible" for terrestrial radio! Those of us who have been at it remember a time when the majority of stations either broke even, or lost money. Today the vast majority are profitable! These "new challengers" (satellite, internet, etc.) are the ones yet to prove, or even hint at financial viability!

Our business model (in terrestrial broadcasing) is beautiful in it's simplicity. The programming dept. draws as many warm bodies around the box as possible, so the sales department can pitch to them. It works just as well now as it ever has. I know. I produce radio commercials for a living, and my clients tell me so!
 
Len14043 said:
I predict FM IBOC will become popular at a slow pace and AM IBOC will stall or fail.

AGREED! I’ll join The Dude; and as Smokin’ Will Robinson [of The Miracles – not “Lost in Space”] once sang, “I Second That Emotion”!

Len14043 said:
I hope FM IBOC becomes ubiquitous...

Is that a play on words, Len ;) I’ll give you a restrained “yep” as to your FM prognosis... ‘Like it or not – iBiquity-flavored “HD Radio” IS a “done deal” on FM; and as most of life’s little imperfections—we simply learn to cope, innovate, and ultimately-overcome our aches ‘n pains... Someone did manage to invent aspirin ‘ya know! IBOC will be championed by its corporate radio promoters – and they’ll encounter FINAL-judgment from those who frequent the ballpark—NOT strictly the boardroom! IF the iBiquity “HD” FM system survives [and that’s a debatable IF], I might imagine an additional lane on the highway for those more-averagely endowed in the market size and ERP departments... The FMeXtra digital SCA solution has attracted my positive attention, but its promoters had better seek more-agile marketing counsel than did “The HD Alliance”!

I’m not firmly-convinced the fortunes of FM radio are dependent on near-term digital delivery. I simply CANNOT find a hoard of casual radio listeners who are dissatisfied with competently-engineered ANALOG FM... I can identify a large-and-growing group that has proclaimed: “It’s over” to the “less is more” and lowest common-denominator PROGRAMMING status embraced by corporate radio. THAT should-be radio’s most-compelling concern – NOT some silly modulation scheme! That’s the root-rationale behind my “IF” contention above.

As it currently stands – Multicast is HD’s most marketable asset; but aside from Public Radio, its custodians seem content to dismiss it to a PC in the cluster’s programming broom closet. Allow yourself to harbor NO ILLUSIONS – the “corporate suit” definition of “Multicast ROI.” is your future desire to “PAY for play”.

Len14043 said:
...and drags AM along to the point where it could transition to the all-digital mode. While the AM hybrid system is fraught with problems, the all-digital mode (not necessarily IBOC) would help AM - if only we could get there.

Quoting a former Gannett Radio Chief Engineer and later-counsel to U.S. Digital Radio—the original consortium that preceded iBiquity: “Hybrid digital AM is just a bad idea; not enough “real estate” for both modes, TOO much interference, NO coverage improvement, and an audio-quality advance that is subjective at best and too-little to make a difference at the end of this century.That was 1998 – TEN YEARS have passed and bit-rates as low as 48k are now common and considered a barely-acceptable MINIMUM. “HD” AM crawls at a snail-paced 16kbps! Then consider the damage visited on an already-congested band – all for a “mid-fi” MONO audio stream bettered by most home internet-audio hobbyists with a free ShoutCast server!

I beg to differ with the “enthusiasts” of HD; but modern-modulated ANALOG AM via a carefully-chosen/affordable “quality” receiver, situated within the same signal contour required for “HD lock”, is comparable to the sonic capacity of current 16kbps digital AM. My observation is born from personal experience with the former-RealOldies 1690 [WRLL Berwyn/Chicago]. The “HD” reference was a borrowed BA HD Receptor... The analog reference was my Tivoli Model One at less than HALF the BA’s cost. They were situated in Munster, IN – about ten-miles from WRLL’s new 10kw digitally-modulated transmitter. Despite the IBOC-mandated audio bandwidth limitation – WRLL’s analog audio signature was subjectively-BETTER on the Tivoli than in “HD” on the Boston Acoustics radio. No such comparison was possible in Spring 2004; but I can clearly remember the OUTSTANDING pre-IBOC audio from your local RealOldies 1530 [the former WSAI] on that same Tivoli. I won’t be silly-enough to assume the identity of a 22-year-old, and proclaim it as “comparable to my iPod”; but I had NO audio-induced inhibitions toward enjoying THE PROGRAMMING on 1530 at that time!

There simply is NO utility, NO up-side, and NO hope for this “science-fair project” conceived strictly in narrow self-interest... And I promise – that’s as “bitter” as I’m going to get in this post ;)

As for FULL-digital from 530-1700kHz: There is no-better candidate for a digital augmentation than the current AM band; but I’ll join you in questioning how to get there – and whether practicality could survive the brutal politics. Given the historical priorities of the FCC; the coverage capability of analog AM; and a heightened domestic threat – I can’t imagine the Regulators permitting a full-scale antiquation of the analog receiver base. I might imagine their acceptance of a voluntary “proceed at YOUR own risk” decision by a station consciously-selecting a digital-only mode aimed at capable tuners, but you can easily grasp the perils of that in the near-term!

Len14043 said:
Putting your personal bias aside, where do you see IBOC or some kind of digital system going for both bands?

One can’t easily-answer your question without visiting vsa’s wisdom...

vsa said:
You are assuming that people will still be buying AM/FM band terrestrial-style radios... or things that contain such radios 15, 20 or 25 years from today.

With the PC-technology explosion in the late-90s; I learned first-hand the futility of such fortune-telling—even thru a ten-year tunnel; so it is difficult [if not impossible] to mortally-predict, but I’ll stretch...

IBOC “HD Radio” on FM will survive just above a level of necessary significance IF conjugated with ANOTHER technology and/or medium of greater popularity. It will be driven only by an industry tethered to its massive and perpetual prior investment, but I’d be haunted by the doubtful expectation for a cooperative consumer electronics industry—lured by trendier fish to fry in more-lucrative product markets.

AM hybrid-digital IBOC? ...Believe it or not, I can pound this nail in one stroke...

Do you remember C-QUAM AM-stereo? :'(
 
Radios on e-Bay and garage sales first, followed by IBOC exciters going on storage shelves gathering dust.

The market has spoken, people aren't buying. Streaming over cell phone networks is my best guess for the future of radio. Satellite in the mean time.
 
Mike Walker said:
If I were God; we'd let FM continue to progress, but go back to square one for AM. I'm not, and it ain't likely to happen...

The most bothersome thing about all of this... [For] "Mom 'n Pop" operators that have kept small-market radio "live and local" all these years; will anything happen to make HD an affordable way for small stations to improve audio quality and and increase available programming choices.

Kudos on some good points, Mike! The short answer is... [likely] NO. “HD Radio” [IBOC] was created BY corporate radio FOR corporate radio; lobbied without alternative consideration into exclusive existence by its industry spokesmouth—the NAB—a slightly-mislettered acronym for... corporate radio; and maintained on its required life-support by [again] corporate radio. The ONLY “missing link” is the mysterious assortment of a FEW consumer electronics companies—whose lukewarm commitment can only be described as a casual crap-shoot; and the first-two rollers have returned their dice to the velvet pouch.

And where would “Mom ‘n Pop Operator” be today if they were forced to oblige a perpetual license fee for every Harris rig, Mosely STL, Optimod, Audigram console, Denon CD player; and EV RE-20? Seriously... WHAT is the root-level difference? Simple... That collection of a so-called “license fee” serves two functions: [1] MOVE money from one side of the hall to the other... [2] MAKE money from the LITTLE “wannabe” who isn’t worthy of the secret handshake, but desires the “privileges” of a membership he isn’t significant-enough to attain.

The prior is FAR-BEYOND mere fiction... Now dabble in some real conspiratorial creativity, and the possible scenarios get even-more surreptitious.
 
"Where do you see IBOC going?"

To QVC Home shopping...

Oh wait... That already happened!

:p

The buring question is did they sell any units even on QVC?

I pretty much agree we'll probably have the FM standard around for quite some time (most likely with a luke-warm public adoption) with the AM dragging the rears. If they ever do get enough "HD" radios' out there it might make some sense even doing the hybrid. Right now it's a waste of time AND money.
 
Ask me again when it's been standard in new cars for a few years.
 
"Where do you see IBOC going?"

I see IBOC in "counter-clockwise swirling water being being pulled by suction and gravity thru a porcelin bowl" into a cast iron or into a plastic 4" pipe.
 
Cute Johnny. And how many new IBOC stations came on this week? ;)
 
JohnnyElectron said:
I see IBOC in "counter-clockwise swirling water being being pulled by suction and gravity thru a porcelin bowl" into a cast iron or into a plastic 4" pipe.
Excellent!!!!! -- Sounds like a plan ;D
 
The Dude said:
JohnnyElectron said:
I see IBOC in "counter-clockwise swirling water being being pulled by suction and gravity thru a porcelin bowl" into a cast iron or into a plastic 4" pipe.
Excellent!!!!! -- Sounds like a plan ;D

ABC / Citadel agrees. SLURG gurgle gurgle
 
Mike Walker asked: "Cute Johnny. And how many new IBOC stations came on this week? "

I can't say how many came on, but I can say how many got switched-off - 50KW WJR turns-off their IBOC at sunset the past 4 days.

Let me make one thing perfectly clear: I want IBOC to work for the AM band - I'm just upset that it only works on severely-local stations (at least with my two Directed Electronics HD radio - one tabletop and one mobile). If IBOC isn't going to work on the clears at night, then the 50KWs might as well all switch back to CQuam and then force the FCC to mandate AM receiver standards for any radio with HD-FM.
I don't know how we can win: if you juice up the digital levels so I can use it on the clears, then it interferes with the adjacents - so at the current time, it's a no win situation as I see it. (assuming my two HD units operate the same as others are experiencing). FM-HD is here to stay (until they make it PAY to PLAY), but I don't know what they can do with AM-HD.
 
Hmmm. "How many new IBOC-AM stations came on this week?" That would be....none.

And: "How many IBOC-AM stations were turned off?" Well....

The Citadel website lists 66 properties. It's not clear how many AMs were using IBOC at night.

But I was pleased to be the one to announce to this board: they're ALL OFF AT NIGHT NOW.

Given the pro-IBOC crowd's estimate that "less than 100" AMs would be on at night with HD in September, I gotta believe this is at least a 10-20% reduction of the total IBOC population, in one swell foop.

Ten down....ninety to go!!
 
Again Savage, I'm not talking about AM HD (as I have clearly stated on numerous occasions). It's time to stop lumping all HD radio together. We have an FM HD system which works well, and provides obvious advantages, and an AM system which perhaps doesn't. When I asked (and I don't know the answer, but I suspect it's "some") how many HD stations came on this week, I was talking primarily about FM HD, as the vast majority of HD stations are FM.
 
And again, Mike - I am not trying to take away your HD-FM. I have no problem with HD-FM. I do have reservations about whether it will succeed eventually in the marketplace, but that's just me. As have stated on the subject: reasonable minds can differ.

I thought my post was very clearly referring ONLY to HD-AM. The subject was Citadel's discontinuance of HD-AM at night. Sorry for any confusion.
 
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