Which Cable Channel will close first?

[K.M. Richards]

There are multiple CNN & ESPN channels that would close down and merge with their main channels. Do we really need HLN and/or those multiple ESPN stations.

You didn't read a single word of my post, did you?

It's about the real estate. Once they've negotiated for "X" number of channels on the cable system, they don't want to go down to "X minus one" or "X minus two" or whatever.

 

[KeithE4]

The sports bubble will burst at some point. People will just stop paying for cable and ESPN will have to cut corners so much that will force them to lower their payments to the leagues or they will go bankrupt. I don't see how this lopsided model can go on much longer. The ones getting the squeeze are the subscribers. ESPN lost a few million viewers and is already feeling the pinch. What happens when a lot of people cut the cord?

If ESPN can't or won't pay, then one or more of the other networks will -- something that The Mickey Mouse Outfit lives in fear for its very existence. A joint effort to cut rights fees by the networks would be in court as fast as you can say "collusion." But that, or all the networks filing bankruptcy, would be required to change things. File that under "fat chance."

 

[Don CT]

If ESPN can't or won't pay, then one or more of the other networks will -- something that The Mickey Mouse Outfit lives in fear for its very existence. A joint effort to cut rights fees by the networks would be in court as fast as you can say "collusion." But that, or all the networks filing bankruptcy, would be required to change things. File that under "fat chance."

Of course they don't want to cut carriage fees. But if enough people cut cable, what will that do to their bottom lines? I don't see people simply giving ESPN $7 a month. Sure the die hards will but the older people will cut the cord completely. Ala-carte will never fly with the big or small networks. They want all the money. But the cable model as it stands now won't last much longer. So either ESPN goes over the top at $20 a month or they will be struggling in 5-10 years.

 

[KTN Corp]

Sports programming is generally immune to this shift because it's the one thing people simple must see live. News is somewhat immune to it, but you can get news online quite easy as well. My hunch is that linear programming will always be around in some form or another. It just may be restricted to news, sports and other live events.

You may be right about the demise of linear programming. But if the networks moved to cable or simply went out of existence as part of the general extinction on both broadcast and cable, what will become of the Big 4/5 stations? Their biggest strength is local TV news, but no market can support 4 or 5 all-news channels--not even New York City--with occasional interruptions for sports!

HLN is strong with young women, the ESPN networks attract young me. Both demos are in Madison Avenue's sights. So long as advertising continues to support those channels, they'll survive. Oh, and I'm sure serious sports fans will say yes, they do need all those ESPNs. Should ESPN cut back on live events, then Disney might consider jettisoning ESPN2, ESPNU, ESPNNews (which occasionally shows live events) and ESPN Classic (ditto, but its main purpose is to show events from the past along with sports documentaries and movies, something the other ESPNs don't do).

CNN and HLN are indistinguishable during the day. Both are rolling news formats similar to newsradio. It might be better for Time Warner to buy WeatherNation TV and use HLN's space to compete with Comcast's Weather Channel. But the demise of all-news on radio may start to translate over to (cable) TV.

 

[KeithE4]

Of course they don't want to cut carriage fees. But if enough people cut cable, what will that do to their bottom lines? I don't see people simply giving ESPN $7 a month. Sure the die hards will but the older people will cut the cord completely. Ala-carte will never fly with the big or small networks. They want all the money. But the cable model as it stands now won't last much longer. So either ESPN goes over the top at $20 a month or they will be struggling in 5-10 years.

$7 or $20 a month? Try $70 at minimum, in order to keep their revenue stream intact. Only about 10% of cable & satellite viewers watch the ESPN channels on average. They'd have to make up for that other 90%.

 

[Don CT]

$7 or $20 a month? Try $70 at minimum, in order to keep their revenue stream intact. Only about 10% of cable & satellite viewers watch the ESPN channels on average. They'd have to make up for that other 90%.

So lets say ESPN loses 50 million cable customers in the next 10 years what do they do. Now of course this would also affect Fox Sports and NBC. But at the moment ESPN is the top dog in terms of revenue.

 

[KeithE4]

So lets say ESPN loses 50 million cable customers in the next 10 years what do they do. Now of course this would also affect Fox Sports and NBC. But at the moment ESPN is the top dog in terms of revenue.

50M cable subscribers is about $350M per month, or $4.2 Billion per year gross. File that under "Stockholders' revolt." File that also under "Not gonna happen." Sports fans, including me, are NOT going to cut the cord because they will lose all access to most games. Regular season MLB, NBA, and NHL games are available online, but the playoffs are not. Neither are college sports other than the few games still on the broadcast networks. The entire football championship and 3/4 of the NCAA basketball tournament are cable-only now.

 

[Don CT]

50M cable subscribers is about $350M per month, or $4.2 Billion per year gross. File that under "Stockholders' revolt." File that also under "Not gonna happen." Sports fans, including me, are NOT going to cut the cord because they will lose all access to most games. Regular season MLB, NBA, and NHL games are available online, but the playoffs are not. Neither are college sports other than the few games still on the broadcast networks. The entire football championship and 3/4 of the NCAA basketball tournament are cable-only now.

Im a sports fan as well, but how many out there are there really? What are the ratings for ESPN on a weekly basis. If all of the non sports fans pulled the plug how big a number is that? If we really went ala-carte and everyone got to pick and choose, how many would willingly subscribe to ESPN. As long as the NFL keeps the majority of their games on network the masses won't care.

 

[Poledo]

Linear programming will not require as many channels for Discovery, HBO, or even ESPN (if you consider ESPN's use of alternate channels when games walk on each other for a while.)
Making new shows available on the main network's set top box on demand service at the scheduled air time is an option.

Gotta keep a few dozen options out their for old codgers for at least another 20-30 years though. Plenty of people still use SD CRT TV sets with some type of cable or OTA adapter. And they don't care that something better is available.

 

[MarcB]

I know that if I was living on my own and channels were available ala carte I wouldn't subscribe to ESPN. I only watch it a few times a year when my teams (YANKEES BASEBALL, GIANTS FOOTBALL) have their games on the network. I can just as easily listen to my teams on the radio - The Yankees on 97.9 FM and The Giants on 1080AM.

 

[K.M. Richards]

Linear programming will not require as many channels for Discovery, HBO, or even ESPN (if you consider ESPN's use of alternate channels when games walk on each other for a while.)

I said nothing about "requiring" as many channels. I said the networks have a mindset that, once they have a channel up on a satellite transponder and it's on cable systems, they will not want to give it up, even if it's doing nothing but repeating programming from their other channels.

The networks live in fear that they might need a channel for some previously unknown service and not have a channel they can use for it. Common sense -- which you are demonstrably guilty of having -- has nothing to do with it.

 

[frankberry]

Gotta keep a few dozen options out their for old codgers for at least another 20-30 years though. Plenty of people still use SD CRT TV sets with some type of cable or OTA adapter. And they don't care that something better is available.

Not so many CRT TV's and converter boxes (that's what they're called) out there anymore. Please understand that it's the "old codgers" who invented the computer-driven video which we enjoy today.
Please don't disrespect them by assuming that they are feeble old people.

Thanks,
"old codger"
Dr. Frank Berry, PhD

 

[vchimpanzee]

Gotta keep a few dozen options out their for old codgers for at least another 20-30 years though. Plenty of people still use SD CRT TV sets with some type of cable or OTA adapter. And they don't care that something better is available.

That's me. If they work, I don't want to spend the money on any new sets. The old ones were something like $120 for a 13-inch TV and a VCR. For most purposes 13 inches is big enough. I didn't want to spend the money on something bigger.

And then I go and spend four times as much per TiVo.

 

[vchimpanzee]

The bottom line is: A la carte will be the death of professional sports in the United States and Canada, at least for a period of time until salaries are slashed by 90% or more.

We can only hope. 20 years ago I thought the baseball players' strike was the end of these outrageous salaries. Now teams threaten to leave town unless they get a new government-financed arena which will allow them to make money while still paying players this outrageous money, and working people can't afford to go to games. If this is what will change all that, great.

 

[frankberry]

It was a big mistake to purchase a VCR/TV combo, even if you were on a very limited budget.
As you have found out, when the VCR jams, the TV stops working.

 

[vchimpanzee]

It was a big mistake to purchase a VCR/TV combo, even if you were on a very limited budget.
As you have found out, when the VCR jams, the TV stops working.

Just temporarily, except for one of them. And they have lasted quite a long time.

And the reason for buying both in one unit was to make things easier, although with digital over-the-air TV, there is an advantage to just the one unit, and the same may be true for cable. But I had to learn to hook up a TiVo. And it got even more complicated when the digital conversion happened with cable.

 

[K.M. Richards]

Not so many CRT TV's and converter boxes (that's what they're called) out there anymore.

This "old codger" still has a 25" Panasonic CRT television, hooked up to a little Zenith digital television converter box purchased during the transition from analog broadcasting (as I suddenly realize that was over a half-dozen years ago) through an old TiVo Series 2 DVR with grandfathered lifetime service. I have 32 channels, including all seven of the broadcast networks and pretty much all the classic television diginets ... for a monthly bill of ... let me see, ZERO.

Until any of it stops working, why would I replace any of it?

 

[frankberry]

I just tossed out a 25" Sony (CRT) Profeel monitor and tuner. It had served me well since 1983!

 

[TVCOOL]

Sinclair is debuting Ring of Honor (ROH) on their new sub channel Comet in December leaving Destination America as soon as their 28 week run end. Maybe it is fit the best for cable to trim the fat (too many channels that basically are the same).

 

[K.M. Richards]

Sinclair is debuting Ring of Honor (ROH) on their new sub channel Comet in December leaving Destination America as soon as their 28 week run end. Maybe it is fit the best for cable to trim the fat (too many channels that basically are the same).

It's going to take an exponentially higher number of programs being moved from cable to broadcast before the cable networks even consider such a thing.

I'm going to repeat myself AGAIN:

The cable networks are not going to downsize as long as they can keep repurposing programs from one channel to another. Once they have negotiated a slot on a cable system (or DirecTV or Dish) that becomes a piece of real estate to them which they will not vacate unless they absolutely have to. All those extra channels they run cost them very little to operate and they still get revenue from them ... even if they're just discounted bonus spots on a package agency buy).

Repeating in this thread that it needs to happen does not change their view of reality, and makes you subject to Einstein's famous definition. (Google those last three words as a phrase if you don't know what I am alluding to.)