I seriously doubt Citadel is going to rock the boat in the short term. If/when Jack gets "jacked," they might even see a small uptick in their numbers. That said, even if they are the third AC-ish game in town, as long as their overall numbers in the much-coveted soccer mom demo remain strong, they are going to continue to bill well, despite the meaningless 12+ numbers likely remaining low. Henry is right: PLJ hits the targets ad agencies want. Like it or not (I'm not saying I like it), that's how the business is run and as long as PLJ pulls strong numbers in that demo, it's going to bill strong. As long as it bills strong, I don't see Citadel pulling a "Jack" and pulling the plug.
Two things that I do NOT see happening:
- Taking on the new WCBS-FM head to head with oldies. Dear god. We know why CBS is bringing back the format, but I don't see it as a format that can really go more than one-deep in NYC. And why would PLJ give up the soccer moms for less lucrative demos, even if it is facing more competition for those soccer moms from the likes of Fresh?
- Country. No way. Not going to happen. Sure, country might (*might*) be able to pull a 1.9 or 2.0 overall in the 12+ numbers, which is where WYNY ended in 1996. And that's probably being generous, considering that 11 years later, the demos in the NYC metro area are less favorable towards the format than they were then. But let's say they get a 2.0 for comparison's sake. They're around that with PLJ, which is a far more advertiser and demo-friendly format in this town than country. So why would they make the switch? It wouldn't make any sense. This country debate is really getting tiring. At least oldies had strong numbers before the plug was pulled in 2005. Country had mediocre numbers 10 years ago.
Besides...getting back to taking on WCBS-FM oldies for a moment...if PLJ wanted to duplicate a format and take it on head to head, why would they go after oldies when they could go after something far more lucrative like CHR? Z100 has been the only CHR game in town for ages and its numbers are as strong as ever. With Disney and their "safe" programming out of the way, if Citadel wanted to take on another station head-to-head, this would seem like a no-brainer to me. Not oldies, and not country. I'm sorry, but WABC is not coming back except during Rewound each Memorial Day.
As for who loses out with the CBS-FM return? For all the hatred directed at Jack, the station did play a wide selection of music and especially played a lot of 80's new wave/brit-pop type hits. PLJ used to air a lot of those too but has severely curtailed them. Perhaps PLJ will open up their playlist just a tad? They did that a couple of years ago, when they started playing a lot of more "obscure" stuff, even from the 70s. It didn't seem to hurt their numbers but they seem to have gone back to a very safe, tight playlist (which doesn't seem to have helped their numbers). However, I have a feeling they're going to continue to play it safe in the short-term, afraid of losing out any more listeners to stations like Fresh. The 80s stuff could always go on K-Rock (KROQ airs some classic alternative in LA), but I don't see it happening. They seem to think that rock listeners in NYC only want to hear 250 harder-edged yet remarkably "safe" rock tunes.