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Who will blink first: Sinclair or Time Warner?

The clock is ticking to the midnight deadline when Time Warner is expected to remove WUHF from its cable line-up.
So with this subject time-sensitive, who do you think will win this battle of the bucks?
 
Mark Giardina asks, "who do you think will win this battle of the bucks?"

WROC-TV Channel 8.
WHEC-TV Channel 10.
WHAM-TV Channel 13.

They'll pick up some viewers who'd been watching WUHF's non-network offerings. How many will depend on whether Time-Warner just runs a black screen on Cable 7 during non-Fox Network feed hours for that 70% of market viewers who depend on cable rather than OTA viewing, or airs some sort of alternate programming to fill the time that isn't filled from Fox Network HQ in NYC and LA (and sells it as part of their overall local advertising package).

TWC hasn't yet answered the question of what they'll air on Cable 7 when Fox Network isn't feeding. It'll be interesting to see. Offering something, and selling it, will give them added revenue (and leverage against Sinclair) compared with either a blank screen or a simple title slide saying the channel's programming is pre-empted until network service resumes. If they can, they would probably be well served by taking a full 24/7 feed of either WNYW (Fox flagship in NYC), or KTTV (Fox West Coast flagship out of LA). Failing that, they should consider Fox O&Os WFXT from Boston or WJBK from Detroit.
 
Bob1370 said:
Mark Giardina asks, "who do you think will win this battle of the bucks?"

WROC-TV Channel 8.
WHEC-TV Channel 10.
WHAM-TV Channel 13.

They'll pick up some viewers who'd been watching WUHF's non-network offerings. How many will depend on whether Time-Warner just runs a black screen on Cable 7 during non-Fox Network feed hours for that 70% of market viewers who depend on cable rather than OTA viewing, or airs some sort of alternate programming to fill the time that isn't filled from Fox Network HQ in NYC and LA (and sells it as part of their overall local advertising package).

TWC hasn't yet answered the question of what they'll air on Cable 7 when Fox Network isn't feeding. It'll be interesting to see. Offering something, and selling it, will give them added revenue (and leverage against Sinclair) compared with either a blank screen or a simple title slide saying the channel's programming is pre-empted until network service resumes. If they can, they would probably be well served by taking a full 24/7 feed of either WNYW (Fox flagship in NYC), or KTTV (Fox West Coast flagship out of LA). Failing that, they should consider Fox O&Os WFXT from Boston or WJBK from Detroit.

If I were WHAM I'd be rushing my new CW 10pm news to air to take advantage of this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to take a lot of viewers from WROC's 10pm news on WUHF.

If I were Time Warner I'd consider asking WHEC, "Give me a 10pm news five nights a week to air on our cable systems and even your weather subchannel." It might sound weird but it could be a good boost for WHEC. Alternatively, doesn't TWC have a significant local news presence with its YNN channels? Make a special 10pm news and air it there.
 
They've agreed to a two-week extension. Here's Time Warner's official statement:

"We’re pleased that we’ve reached an extension with Sinclair Broadcasting that will allow our customers to continue to receive all Sinclair Broadcasting stations uninterrupted through January 14th and allow us to continue negotiating to reach a long-term agreement. We thank our customers for their patience and support throughout these negotiations. Customers should check www.rolloverorgettough.com for updates on this situation."

http://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...ime-Warner-Cable-Status-Negotiations-Sinclair

So, who blinked?
 
newsbot said:
So, who blinked?

My money would be on Sinclair being the chicken here. I've been keeping an eye on the situation, as CNYRadio.com also now includes CNYTVNews.com and there are two Sinclair stations in Syracuse (WSYT and WNYS) involved in the dispute.

Reasons I think (but could never prove without being a fly on the wall) Sinclair blinked:
  • TVNewsCheck.com reported in December that Fox network would offer a "cooling off" feed directly to cable companies, so viewers wouldn't miss any Fox programming while negotiations continue with local affiliates. While the feed would cost 70 cents per month per subscriber (no way to tell if that's higher or lower than Sinclair's offer but TVNewsCheck made it seem so), it still offers TW the chance to fill the non-network hours with its own programming (more infomercials?) and local spots, making some of that money back.
  • Even without the above offer and/or for Sinclair stations that aren't Fox affiliates -- Time Warner's website has said that network programming would not be lost. TW has already demonstrated that it can and will import signals from other markets.
  • In Utica, where TW has been in a dispute with the much smaller Smith Media, that company's WKTV has been replaced with the NBC affiliate from Scranton, Pa. Although Nexstar says TW has no right to carry WBRE in Utica, TW argues its contract says the cable company can add WBRE to "any" of its lineups. Nexstar says keeping carriage geographically restricted to the Scranton market is implied, but TW says it was not specifically spelled out.
 
I was going to add -- but apparently I wasn't able to "beat the clock" on making changes to a post:



There's still question over whether TW is breaking any rules by importing WBRE. Nexstar has asked the FCC to block TW from continuing. But if TW is not breaking any rules, then local affiliates have had their biggest weapon -- their "exclusivity card" -- taken out of their hand.

In the end, if TW can just pipe in another affiliate from somewhere else, then stations don't have much leverage. It would appear the local stations may need the cable companies more than cable needs them. While I think most of us in broadcasting would root for the local station, let's be honest: the average TV viewer probably doesn't care what happens as long as they can watch their network programming. With no local news or any other notable local programming on the two Syracuse stations, Sinclair isn't really offering anything of "real" value that viewers would truly miss if WSYT and WNYS were to be replaced by out-of-town affiliates.
 
An update!

The TW-Sinclair battle has been postponed until later in January.

IMHO I think that Sinclair had the rug pulled out from underneath them when FOX agreed to allow TW to broadcast their national shows. Without FOX's support, Sinclair really does not have much of a leg to stand on when it comes to negotiations.

I don't see an army of protestors surrounding the TW HQ demanding the return of WUHF if that station is no longer carried by the cable company; do you?
 
In the case of Time Warner in Syracuse, probably the average viewer wouldn't miss the two stations. Neither station has news or (little) any involvement in the local community. In Rochester there would be a local impact since Nexstar's WROC is running WUHF and doing, by most accounts a pretty decent job. Their 10: 00 news has very little criticism and found an audience. In Utica, WKTV has been around for over 60 years and is firmly entrenched into the community. They are the only source of local news on TV. I have talked to many locals in the Utica area and they are P.O. about WKTV being replaced by WBRE.
 
We could have a major discussion about the "Must Carry Rules"....WKTV and WVNY could have some legal points here.
 
I agree... cases like this definitely make you think about the Must Carry Rules as they currently exist, whether they should be changed, and if so, how they should be changed.

Current options:
1) Station can demand it be carried on cable. Cable company must carry, but doesn't pay a cent.
2) Station can demand retransmission fees. Cable company now has option to keep station and pay fee, or refuse to pay and drop station.

In general, high-demand stations like those in the "big 4" networks can get away with option 2, knowing that their programming is popular, and knowing that cable companies would get flak from customers if a popular station disappears. But in most cases, stations don't expect that they'll be replaced by other network affiliates in other communities. For example, I don't think Smith Media ever expected TWC to replace WKTV with WBRE, and apparently WBRE's owner never saw it coming either.

The disputes in 2010 -- Comcast vs. News Corp, TWC vs. Sinclair, and TWC vs. Smith -- gained plenty of media attention and attention from lawmakers as well. It's almost certain that this issue will eventually be addressed by the FCC or Congress.

Should the rules change? Definitely. Consumers always lose out twice in these situations -- first, by having channels taken away, and again, by paying higher cable bills when those channels are restored.

My suggestion: no retransmission fees for ANY channel, broadcast or cable. All local stations are carried for free, and all cable stations are carried for free. The cable company only charges based on the actual costs of receiving and relaying the programming. Content providers make their money entirely on advertising revenue, just like most other forms of media. Benefit to the consumer: no more paying for dozens/hundreds of packaged channels that you rarely or never watch just to get the handful of channels you DO watch often.

Obviously, that won't work just as I've laid it out above. If any channel (like HBO, Cinemax, etc.) wants a retransmission fee, that's fine -- but viewers have the option to pick and choose exactly which channels they want to pay for. Yep, basically, it would be a la carte. But at least consumers wouldn't be forced to pay for channels they don't watch.

Imagine if you wanted a subscription to Time magazine and it's $50 a year. But Time won't let you buy Time by itself. You also have to buy Sports Illustrated, Popular Mechanics, Cosmopolitan, Cooking Light, GQ, TV Guide, Newsweek, The Oprah Magazine, Electronic Gaming Monthly, People, Ms., National Enquirer, Woman's Day, Wired and Martha Stewart Living. Now you're paying $250 for all these magazines. But there are very few people who would actually care to read ALL of these magazines every single month. Most of them would just get thrown out. That's a waste of paper, and a waste of your money. You shouldn't have to pay $250 for a dozen magazines when you just want the ONE magazine for just $50.

Same thing with cable. I shouldn't be stuck paying for channels I don't watch. But I don't have the option to pick and choose the channels I do want.
 
What I wonder is, will cable companies that don't want to pay local affiliates' fee demands simply start negotiating a blanket carriage deal with a network at a lower per-subscriber rate, and just start pumping network flagship stations into a market? And what if said network is co-owned with the cable provider?

What Fox did with Time-Warner could set a precedent that could even get uglier for a local station.

Let's suppose Comcast, which now owns NBC, decides it wants to stiff the local NBC affiliate in one of the markets where it controls the cable system while someone else controls the station. It can just tell that affiliate to go to hell and pump an O&O like WNBC, WCAU, WRC-TV, WMAQ-TV, KNBC, etc. into the market--it can pick one of its own that's closest to the cable market in question and feed the signal in for nothing, while selling ads for that market that cover over the local ads of businesses in the market of origin. It'd take years for the inevitable court case to work its way through, and given the Supreme Court and its close affinity for the biggest of businesses, my money is on Comcast to win the case whatever the antitrust law seems to say.
 
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