Why is AC taking a bath now?

[AliceTheCook]

Finally got a chance to analyze the recent 12+ ratings, which I know isn't necessarily a real indicator of anything, but there's a pattern of listeners defecting from AC stations. KVIL took a bath, Sunny leveled off and is about even now with their very first book last year, The Oasis dropped, and even Jack's leveled off. Is it just bad programming, bad marketing, or is the format itself just dying?

I think Sunny overestimated today's popularity of 70s songs. They're 70s intensive, and even their billboards read "70'S" in a huge font compared to 60s, 80s, etc. KVIL was starting to make some positive moves, but it looks like they're backpedaling (backpaddling?) now. I thought Smokey was the answer. It'd be easy to say that AC listeners have gravitated to Jack, but the ratings don't back that up. Maybe satellite radio's making some inroads on that audience, or maybe, as everyone's said on this board forever, that we need an EIGHTIES station here. Not a cop-out like Mix, who only plays the most overplayed, tired songs of the 80s, but one that really dives into the whole pop/rock genre. If I want 70s, I go to KEOM. If I want 80s, I go to satellite. And God forbid that I want 90s, I go to CDs. Even satellite's failed in embracing the grunge movement or the alternative hits of the 90s.

If Sunny were to make a change, what would it be? A return to The Eagle? They kept the call letters. But to bring in the ad revenue that the Eagle didn't, they'd have to draw in some of KZPS's and The Bone's listeners. Maybe a Q-102 redux, with only the strongest currents and padded with a lot of 90s rock.

There's still a classic country hole out there waiting to be filled. Same with standards---CAREFULLY-SELECTED ones with some Sinatra, cocktail music and older jazz thrown in. KAAM is a joke when it comes to that--a potpourri that no one can leave on continuously. But I'd guess that CC will go with a "Bob" format to conbat "Jack" with, but, like Jack, it won't have "legs" and both will go downhill in a short time. So what would YOU do with a 100,000 watter that needs help?

 

[edwardrmurrow]

would YOU do with a 100,000 watter that needs help?
>
Have a format nobody else is doing. Quit trying to copy someone else's success. As you pointed out there is no 80's station, KAAM had promise but some of the stuff they have thrown in with Sinatra doesn't bode well. Classic Country was on 12 years ago with the "Original Sunny" but it lacked proper promotion. Could it be successful? In DFW, yes with the right personalities who actually know the music not what they read on the computer screen. Rock is needed but like AC the product itself is not that strong. AC suffers from burn out with assembly line fabricated stars from American Idol, and similar shows . WAAY too many ballads about breaking up, wishing the realtionship was with someone else, or how strong someone's love is. Chronic insomnia sufferers just need to tune into that bile.I had faith in Smokey too at KVIL ,but when it was decided Gene and Julie would return to do mornings,I knew he succumbed to some corporate consultant instead of being a PD.
Radio is losing more and more listeners to ipods,satellite, and the internet, because it refuses to be original in content to compete. When one station sounds like the other with only a call letters difference,it's time to Program it or sell it.

 

[slaterradio]

> Finally got a chance to analyze the recent 12+ ratings,
> which I know isn't necessarily a real indicator of anything,
> but there's a pattern of listeners defecting from AC
> stations. KVIL took a bath, Sunny leveled off and is about
> even now with their very first book last year, The Oasis
> dropped, and even Jack's leveled off. Is it just bad
> programming, bad marketing, or is the format itself just
> dying?
>
> I think Sunny overestimated today's popularity of 70s songs.
> They're 70s intensive, and even their billboards read
> "70'S" in a huge font compared to 60s, 80s, etc. KVIL was
> starting to make some positive moves, but it looks like
> they're backpedaling (backpaddling?) now. I thought Smokey
> was the answer. It'd be easy to say that AC listeners have
> gravitated to Jack, but the ratings don't back that up.
> Maybe satellite radio's making some inroads on that
> audience, or maybe, as everyone's said on this board
> forever, that we need an EIGHTIES station here. Not a
> cop-out like Mix, who only plays the most overplayed, tired
> songs of the 80s, but one that really dives into the whole
> pop/rock genre. If I want 70s, I go to KEOM. If I want
> 80s, I go to satellite. And God forbid that I want 90s, I
> go to CDs. Even satellite's failed in embracing the grunge
> movement or the alternative hits of the 90s.
>
> If Sunny were to make a change, what would it be? A return
> to The Eagle? They kept the call letters. But to bring in
> the ad revenue that the Eagle didn't, they'd have to draw in
> some of KZPS's and The Bone's listeners. Maybe a Q-102
> redux, with only the strongest currents and padded with a
> lot of 90s rock.
>
> There's still a classic country hole out there waiting to be
> filled. Same with standards---CAREFULLY-SELECTED ones with
> some Sinatra, cocktail music and older jazz thrown in. KAAM
> is a joke when it comes to that--a potpourri that no one can
> leave on continuously. But I'd guess that CC will go with a
> "Bob" format to conbat "Jack" with, but, like Jack, it won't
> have "legs" and both will go downhill in a short time. So
> what would YOU do with a 100,000 watter that needs help?
>

KODA in Houston is AC ("soft rock") and in 12+ and billing they are having a stellar run. They've been edging out Majic 102 for the last few years and it's been a close run.

May seem like an overly simplistic analysis...but Houston is more of a "Doctor's office" city and that's where these formats are meant to be played.

Dallas and surrounding areas is a different landscape than Houston. Sunny will stick around a few more books. CC definitely would not revisit an old format that failed, especially The Eagle. Killed stations are rarely revived, if at all.

Few people really listen to this stuff intensely. The whole idea behind "smooth jazz" is creating aesthetic music that compliments conversation.
Ask a listener of a smooth jazz station to name 10 artists. Can they do it? Would be interesting to find out.

JACK is fine right now. They have created a stir in the 18-34 numbers and have at least re-charged what was a sinking Wild 100. I give infinity credit for taking the risk. It may not make a killing in the 12+ numbers, but I don't think anybody at Infinity is even beginning to loathe the installation of this format. We'll see in another year what the future of this fast-spreading format is to be.
Maybe it will sink, but I think it will float at least for a few years.

 

[KRXOEngineer]

> Finally got a chance to analyze the recent 12+ ratings,
> which I know isn't necessarily a real indicator of anything,
> but there's a pattern of listeners defecting from AC
> stations. KVIL took a bath, Sunny leveled off and is about
> even now with their very first book last year, The Oasis
> dropped, and even Jack's leveled off. Is it just bad
> programming, bad marketing, or is the format itself just
> dying?
>
> I think Sunny overestimated today's popularity of 70s songs.
> They're 70s intensive, and even their billboards read
> "70'S" in a huge font compared to 60s, 80s, etc. KVIL was
> starting to make some positive moves, but it looks like
> they're backpedaling (backpaddling?) now. I thought Smokey
> was the answer. It'd be easy to say that AC listeners have
> gravitated to Jack, but the ratings don't back that up.
> Maybe satellite radio's making some inroads on that
> audience, or maybe, as everyone's said on this board
> forever, that we need an EIGHTIES station here. Not a
> cop-out like Mix, who only plays the most overplayed, tired
> songs of the 80s, but one that really dives into the whole
> pop/rock genre. If I want 70s, I go to KEOM. If I want
> 80s, I go to satellite. And God forbid that I want 90s, I
> go to CDs. Even satellite's failed in embracing the grunge
> movement or the alternative hits of the 90s.
>
> If Sunny were to make a change, what would it be? A return
> to The Eagle? They kept the call letters. But to bring in
> the ad revenue that the Eagle didn't, they'd have to draw in
> some of KZPS's and The Bone's listeners.

How about the Rock/40 KEGL of the 80s : All Hit 97.1 KEGL? I know many stations nationwide (no pun intended!) have tried 80s, but I don't think any of them have really attempted the twist KEGL had back in the day. I honestly think it would work pretty decently if properly programmed by someone like Randy Brown/ Kris Haze that knows what they are doing. The demo should be pretty appealing I'd think.



Maybe a Q-102
> redux, with only the strongest currents and padded with a
> lot of 90s rock.
>
> There's still a classic country hole out there waiting to be
> filled. Same with standards---CAREFULLY-SELECTED ones with
> some Sinatra, cocktail music and older jazz thrown in. KAAM
> is a joke when it comes to that--a potpourri that no one can
> leave on continuously. But I'd guess that CC will go with a
> "Bob" format to conbat "Jack" with, but, like Jack, it won't
> have "legs" and both will go downhill in a short time. So
> what would YOU do with a 100,000 watter that needs help?
>

 

[texasskywatcher]

> Sunny will stick around a few more books. CC
> definitely would not revisit an old format that failed,
> especially The Eagle. Killed stations are rarely revived, if
> at all.

One might wonder if Duane and Ayo had control of The Eagle if we would even have a Sunny.

> Few people really listen to this stuff intensely. The whole
> idea behind "smooth jazz" is creating aesthetic music that
> compliments conversation.
> Ask a listener of a smooth jazz station to name 10 artists.
> Can they do it? Would be interesting to find out.

Only in doctor's offices.

> JACK is fine right now.

Yes, but how long can one listen to the same tracks on his/her ipod before downloading new ones.

I still believe this market is missing the 25-34 demo. Those aging "gen x-ers" out there, like myself, are bored to death. Less 80s and more 90s would be good; however if I hear Mmmmbop....

Come to think about it, in the past 2 years this market has become constipated.

(pettioning to change his handle to WNNXFan)

 

[radiolover78]

>
> May seem like an overly simplistic analysis...but Houston is
> more of a "Doctor's office" city and that's where these
> formats are meant to be played.

How is Houston a "doctor's office" city? What's Dallas then?

>
> Dallas and surrounding areas is a different landscape than
> Houston. Sunny will stick around a few more books. CC
> definitely would not revisit an old format that failed,
> especially The Eagle. Killed stations are rarely revived, if
> at all.
>
> Few people really listen to this stuff intensely. The whole
> idea behind "smooth jazz" is creating aesthetic music that
> compliments conversation.
> Ask a listener of a smooth jazz station to name 10 artists.
> Can they do it? Would be interesting to find out.
>
> JACK is fine right now. They have created a stir in the
> 18-34 numbers and have at least re-charged what was a
> sinking Wild 100. I give infinity credit for taking the
> risk. It may not make a killing in the 12+ numbers, but I
> don't think anybody at Infinity is even beginning to loathe
> the installation of this format. We'll see in another year
> what the future of this fast-spreading format is to be.
> Maybe it will sink, but I think it will float at least for a
> few years.
>
<P ID="signature">______________


</P>

 

[Mediafrog]

> How is Houston a "doctor's office" city?

World's largest medical center, that's how.

 

[davideduardo]

Re: Radio losing more and more listeners

> Radio is losing more and more listeners to ipods,satellite,
> and the internet, because it refuses to be original in
> content to compete. When one station sounds like the other
> with only a call letters difference,it's time to Program it
> or sell it.

Dallas Texas, Adults 18+

Cume rating
Fall, 1998 95.2
Spring, 2005 95.4

That does not seem like lost listeners to me.

 

[Michael_Boehm]

Re: Radio losing more and more listeners

> > Radio is losing more and more listeners to
> ipods,satellite,
> > and the internet, because it refuses to be original in
> > content to compete. When one station sounds like the other
>
> > with only a call letters difference,it's time to Program
> it
> > or sell it.
>
> Dallas Texas, Adults 18+
>
> Cume rating
> Fall, 1998 95.2
> Spring, 2005 95.4
>
> That does not seem like lost listeners to me.
>

How do people figure out ratings? No one ever surveyed me or my office.

 

[davideduardo]

Re: Radio losing more and more listeners

> How do people figure out ratings? No one ever surveyed me or
> my office.

www.arbitron.com where there is a full explanation.

Ratings are not a census, but a poll. Dallas has 4,200 diaries each quarter for rougly 4.7 million people age 12 and over, meaning each diary has a "value" of about 1,100 persons. They contact over 20,000 persons to get the 4,200 diaries back and usable.

If you do the math, it means that your household would be asked about once every 40 years to participate.

 

[jd]

Re: Radio losing more and more listeners

> Ratings are not a census, but a poll. Dallas has 4,200
> diaries each quarter for rougly 4.7 million people age 12
> and over, meaning each diary has a "value" of about 1,100
> persons. They contact over 20,000 persons to get the 4,200
> diaries back and usable.

David, I have no no hidden agenda as I pose this question, but I have to ask it. Considering your many years of experience, how would you rate the reliability of Arbitron ratings with the reliability of exit polls during elections?

 

[JohnHogan]

Re: Radio losing more and more listeners

> > Radio is losing more and more listeners to
> ipods,satellite,
> > and the internet, because it refuses to be original in
> > content to compete. When one station sounds like the other
>
> > with only a call letters difference,it's time to Program
> it
> > or sell it.
>
> Dallas Texas, Adults 18+
>
> Cume rating
> Fall, 1998 95.2
> Spring, 2005 95.4
>
> That does not seem like lost listeners to me.

Thank you! Radio is NOT losing listeners to ipods, satellite, etc...
Just because YOU quit listening does not mean every one else has.
Radio has it's problems but let's keep in mind that lots and lots of people will not pay to listen to radio, not yet anyway. The biggest problem in Dallas as I see it, there are to many signals and not enough revenue to support those signals. This town is WAY over radioed. Dallas is it's own worst enemy.

>

 

[davideduardo]

Re: Arbitron vs. Exit Polls

> > Ratings are not a census, but a poll. Dallas has 4,200
> > diaries each quarter for rougly 4.7 million people age 12
> > and over, meaning each diary has a "value" of about 1,100
> > persons. They contact over 20,000 persons to get the 4,200
>
> > diaries back and usable.
>
> David, I have no no hidden agenda as I pose this question,
> but I have to ask it. Considering your many years of
> experience, how would you rate the reliability of Arbitron
> ratings with the reliability of exit polls during elections?

There is no valid point of comparison.

An exit poll generally asks the equivalent of a yes or no question, among two candidates for a position. If you did not vote for A, you generally had to have voted for B.

In radio, we have levels and levels of data which must be proportional at ever one of the levels. First is by age cell. Then by sex. Then by geography within a market. Then by daypart. And then by ethnicity.

While Dallas may have nearly 4,500 diaries, if you want to see Hispanic men 18-24, there are only 80. And if you want to see that demo in Sat 7-Mid, there are only about 7.

So the accuracy varies by how thinly you slice the data. The 12+ 6-Mid is less reliable than an exit poll, since there are 50 to 100 "candidates" in the election, not two. But in elections, one vote can mean a win or a lose. In ratings, a few tenths of a point of wobbling is insignificant as to pricing and ability to make money.

We could increase accuracy. It takes quadruple the sample to cut the margin of error by half. Since most of the costs are sampling costs, this means that station clients would pay about three times as much. And there is no reason, as the product is accurate enough 95% of the time so as not to warrant such an increase.

What advertisers want is the meter, not more sample. And with the meter, the sample size decreases by at least 50%, because the meter uses a panel rather than a changing weekly sample.

Keep in mind that the accuracy only has to be adequate to allow advertisers to make decisions on advertising. Perfection is not required, and, besides, there is no such thing as a perfect poll.

 

[allisonmarie]

Re: Radio losing more and more listeners

> > Radio is losing more and more listeners to
> ipods,satellite,
> > and the internet, because it refuses to be original in
> > content to compete. When one station sounds like the other
>
> > with only a call letters difference,it's time to Program
> it
> > or sell it.
>
> Dallas Texas, Adults 18+
>
> Cume rating
> Fall, 1998 95.2
> Spring, 2005 95.4
>
> That does not seem like lost listeners to me.
>
Gotta agree with David on this one! Seems like nothing more than wobble to me!

 

[davideduardo]

Re: Radio is not losing more and more listeners

> >
> Gotta agree with David on this one! Seems like nothing more
> than wobble to me!
>

In all fairness, that comment of mine ignored part of the equation. In other words, a classic troll post. Hhehehe.

Arbitron does not measure share. It measures cume (how many diarykeeprs wrote down the station in the diary?) and TSL (for how long did they listen?). And by compiling both, they derive share, rating, and AQH persons.

All of these derivatives, which happen to be the key metrics of radio buying, have declined... slightly.

In 1998, the furthest back I have readily accessible numbers for Dallas, the market TSL was :30 minutes higher than it is today. From 21 hours per person to 20:30 per person... about 2%. In 1998, satellite and the iPod were a dream. Today the competition for leisure and entertainment time is severe.

While no one believes every station is as good as it could be, and there are various negative effects of both consolidation and the excess number of stations the FCC has licensed, this is still a pretty good indication that radio is holding up well.

 

[DFWRadioJock]

> I still believe this market is missing the 25-34 demo. Those
> aging "gen x-ers" out there, like myself, are bored to
> death. Less 80s and more 90s would be good; however if I
> hear Mmmmbop....

This market is swamped with too much 70’s music:

KEOM, KLUV, Sunny & Jack

Of those, only two of them spin 80’s, and from what I’ve heard KLUV and Sunny have actually increased their use of 70’s tunes.