Why Radio Doesn't Want White Listeners!

[fred flintstone]

Old News: Radio doesn't want old listeners.
Result: End of the Oldies and Standards formats.

New News: Radio doesn't want White, English-speaking listeners.
Result: End of the Rock and Country formats.

Will WXTU be the next to flip?
Country is already dead in New York. It has just died in LA (the largest market for country music), where the one country station - "America's most listened to Country station" - has just been flipped.

An LA Times article examined the flip and sees this as part of an "industry trend."

The shift demonstrates how America's changing ethnicity is remaking media, especially in big cities. Because of their size and loyalty, minority audiences are becoming more coveted by radio companies than white listeners — at least in ethnically diverse metropolitan areas. Once-essential genres such as country, rock and classical music are increasingly being replaced by formats such as pop, hip-hop and talk radio.

Why? Here's the short answer. Radio doesn't want White listeners because White listeners don't want radio. White listeners - who are more likely to be early adopters of new technologies - are increasing turning to satellite radio, Internet audio and mp3 for music. Rock and Country stations, the LA Times, reports have been hardest hit by these defections.

Blacks and Hispanics are slower to embrace the new media and, therefore, Urban and Hispanic targeted stations hold their audiences better - and generate more sales revenue (a Merrill Lynch broadcast analyst is quoted as saying LA's former country - now Hispanic - station will increase its revenues by 50 per cent).

The overall radio audience has been shrinking, according to Arbitron, but the Black and Hispanic audiences have seen significant increases.

Bottom line: Superior technologies are now available for music. White people are moving to them; Blacks and Hispanics less so.

Local talk and local personalities are the only areas in which terrestrial radio has a unique selling point and a distinct advantage over new audio media. But terrestrial radio has mostly killed off local talk and local personalities in favor of syndicated talk and no personalities. Radio can hold an audience but once an audience leaves, it's almost impossible to get it back.

To those of you complaining about all the Urban and Hispanic stations in Philly, and the lack of Classical, Standards, Oldies, Rock and Alternative stations: This is only the beginning. You ain't heard nothing yet.

Radio is dying. People go through five stages in dealing with death: Denial. Anger. Bargaining. Depression. Acceptance.

Most people in the business are still at stage one. Many people on this board appear to be at stage two.

 

[jayedwards]

I was hoping HD2 and HD3 FM channels would offer better programming but it appears it's going to be more of the same crap. I guess the future of radio is satellite and internet and maybe some new technology yet to come.

 

[davideduardo]

Why? Here's the short answer. Radio doesn't want White listeners because White listeners don't want radio. White listeners - who are more likely to be early adopters of new technologies - are increasing turning to satellite radio, Internet audio and mp3 for music. Rock and Country stations, the LA Times, reports have been hardest hit by these defections.

That is not true. You are using the example of country in NY and LA as a basis for a national ocnclusion.

In LA, KZLA was down to a 1.6 share. In NY, the format was in decline when other opportunities came up. Neither is a country lifestyle market, even among non-Hispanic whites.

In Philadelphia, the country station gets good ratings and revenue. It is not going away. Formats change when they are not successful.

Usage of radio in the prime 25-54 demo has not changed more than half a percent in the last 10 years. It is off only slightly in 18-24, the demos most hard to reach historically. This is consistednt across ethnicities, too.

Early adopters are best defined by age and location... younger, urban, social, etc. There are many Bloack and Hispanic early adopters, too.

And the majority of Hispanics are classified as "white" on the US Census.

 

[cisco_d]

I was hoping HD2 and HD3 FM channels would offer better programming but it appears it's going to be more of the same crap. I guess the future of radio is satellite and internet and maybe some new technology yet to come.

Well WKTU 103.5 in New York has country on their HD2 station.

 

[fred flintstone]

White Flight to New Media

David, with all due respect, I was thinking of you and KM Richards when I wrote the line about people in the business being in denial. Denial seems to be an aspect of human nature when businesses based on old technology face challenges from business based on new technology.

Let's just say my reading of research on diffusion of innovation does not jibe with your summary but it is consistent with what was summarized in the LA Times article.

In any case, what matters is what marketers and advertisers, and station operators BELIEVE is true.

If you do not accept the basic premise of the article I quoted, how do you account for the dearth of White-targeted formats in many markets (Rock, Alternative, County) and the corresponding growth of Urban and Spanish-language formats?

PS: Let's be realistic about HD. It is not a factor in any market; it is barely a homeopathic presence.

 

[davideduardo]

Re: White Flight to New Media

David, with all due respect, I was thinking of you and KM Richards when I wrote the line about people in the business being in denial. Denial seems to be an aspect of human nature when businesses based on old technology face challenges from business based on new technology.

Let's just say my reading of research on diffusion of innovation does not jibe with your summary but it is consistent with what was summarized in the LA Times article.

In any case, what matters is what marketers and advertisers, and station operators BELIEVE is true.

If you do not accept the basic premise of the article I quoted, how do you account for the dearth of White-targeted formats in many markets (Rock, Alternative, County) and the corresponding growth of Urban and Spanish-language formats?

PS: Let's be realistic about HD. It is not a factor in any market; it is barely a homeopathic presence.

In reverse order: the HD launch occured 4 weeks ago. I hardly expect it to gain momentum in a month, when the objective has been to 1) provide stations, 2) provide HD content and 3) get receiver manufacturers to get product into the channels. It has been 5 years and satellite is still losing about $400 million a quarter.

The growth of urban and Hispanic formats is in proportion to the markets such stations serve, not due to non-Hispanic whites leaving radio. None of the data shows non-Hispanic whites to be listening significantly less in the demos radio tries to attract, which are 18 to 54. Where there is less is among teens and 55+, because radio can not program to those groups.

In LA, the market is now over 70% ethnic: 42% Hispanic, 8% Black, 12% Asian and 10% or more recent Persian, Armenian, Russian, Arab immigrants. None of them listen to country. Very few of the adults in this group listen to rock. And the market was never a country lifestyle market, with stations like KGBS and KLAC never getting significantly notable ratings. NY is the same. Country could not sustain the degrees of listenership to justify the format, nut not because non-Hispanic whites were leaving radio, but because there was no lifestyle group and NY is also significantly ethnic.

Rock is on the decline because of factors within the genre. Burn in classic rock, inconistent product in alternative, etc. It is not because rock listeners have left radio, it is because they are listening now to other things. You are applying product life cycle analysis to raido, where radio is not the product! Formats and staitons are products, not the medium. I do not buy a Blu-ray because I want to see the Blu-ray player in my media room... I buy it because I think the content will look better and I will have amore enjoyable viewing experience. It is about the content.

Rock and country appeal to a segment of the population, not everyone. In some markets, the segment is small or non-existent. That does not mean radio is bad, it means there is no audience for rock and country, because the specific cities where this happens are not filled with rock and country partisans.

Radio faces challenges from other entertainment sources, just like we did in the 40's from TV. Or in the 50's from "Highway HiFi." And in the 60's 8-Tracks and Cassettes. Or cable in the 70's. Or CDs in the 80's. Or DVDs... or video games. And we look at these changes and then decide what if anything can or should be done. Since there is no evidence that target non-Hispanic whites have really stopped using radio, we are not in denial but simply not considering this an issue. You are, but mostly because you do not have the facts.

FYI, young Hispanics have about the same usage of iPods and stuff as the rest of the population From there up, it is highly correlated with income level, not ethnicity. You are looking at adoption of innovation as an active decision, when in most cases it is a function of socioeconomic level and ability to keep up with trends.

 

[Irishfl]

Why? Here's the short answer. Radio doesn't want White listeners because White listeners don't want radio. White listeners - who are more likely to be early adopters of new technologies - are increasing turning to satellite radio, Internet audio and mp3 for music. Rock and Country stations, the LA Times, reports have been hardest hit by these defections.

Blacks and Hispanics are slower to embrace the new media and, therefore, Urban and Hispanic targeted stations hold their audiences better - and generate more sales revenue (a Merrill Lynch broadcast analyst is quoted as saying LA's former country - now Hispanic - station will increase its revenues by 50 per cent).

The overall radio audience has been shrinking, according to Arbitron, but the Black and Hispanic audiences have seen significant increases.

Bottom line: Superior technologies are now available for music. White people are moving to them; Blacks and Hispanics less so.

Fred, if your basing this jump to newer technologies on economic levels of race in America, you're way off. Well percentage wise, white move to the newer more expensive stuff may true, fact is there are still more poor whites in America, than anyother race. So let me use a made up number here. Lets say 75% of whites have moved away from radio, onto IPOD, internet, ect. While only 25% of blacks have. The 25% of whites who havn't moved on yet, would still outnumber black Americans who have.

The real reason stations like rap have teken off in the last 16 yrs or so, is because white people make up the majority of listeners (rich kids in the suberbs). I think when it comes to record sales on rap, it almost 80% white.

Besides that, if what you said was true, and was based on ethnic economics, the formats to suffer first would be rap, rock (as you mentioned), and the millions forms of AC. Whihc means here in Philly, the stations suffering would be MMR, YSP, Power99, the beat 100.3, Q102, and B101. All these stations have mostly white listeners, that are either young middle class teens, or have a large white collar audience. Last I checked one of those stations is always at the top in ratings, while a few of the others are up there. The only that has fallen in the last year, is the one who went to talk during the day.

 

[imhomerjay]

In reading the article several times, it strikes me there is an unspoken but flawed assumption used to support its arguments: white people only listen to so-called "white" stations. The racists on the message board notwithstanding, that is not a universal truism.

While one can argue certain formats--country perhaps more than any other, and to varying degrees sub-genres of "rock" formats--attract a largely, even nearly-exclusively, caucasian audience, many, many caucasian listeners tune to other formats. It's basic economics, not a broader agenda--go for what, in your best judgement, will get you the most listeners that advertisers want to reach, no matter what their ethnicity. To claim this is some larger effort to push aside "white" listeners or formats is absurd. The fact that some of those format will not survive in certian markets is simply business, nothing more. Where there is a larger percentage of the audience that wants country and rock, guess what will dominate the dial.

 

[Bob E. Nelson]

In LA, KZLA was down to a 1.6 share. In NY, the format was in decline when other opportunities came up. Neither is a country lifestyle market, even among non-Hispanic whites.

What is the precise definition of ``country lifestyle''?

 

[davideduardo]

In LA, KZLA was down to a 1.6 share. In NY, the format was in decline when other opportunities came up. Neither is a country lifestyle market, even among non-Hispanic whites.

What is the precise definition of ``country lifestyle''?

There are a series of lifestyle items that are common among the bulk of any liefestyle groups, and these are precisely defined in scenarios like the PRIZM lifestyles. I think all you have to take into account in LA is the absence of country related clubs, activities, dress, etc. The reason I bring this up is that unless there is a core lifestyle group there is no critical mass for the format to be part of.

You might check the Claritas website for definitions of the PRIZM groups and you can see that country listeners will fall principally into just a couple of them. Since Claritas invented the definition, I will recommend you read them at www.claritas.com. Claritas is the premier demographer in the US, used by nearly all marketers and many boradcasters.

 

[fred flintstone]

There are a series of lifestyle items that are common among the bulk of any liefestyle groups, and these are precisely defined in scenarios like the PRIZM lifestyles. I think all you have to take into account in LA is the absence of country related clubs, activities, dress, etc. The reason I bring this up is that unless there is a core lifestyle group there is no critical mass for the format to be part of.

You might check the Claritas website for definitions of the PRIZM groups and you can see that country listeners will fall principally into just a couple of them. Since Claritas invented the definition, I will recommend you read them at www.claritas.com. Claritas is the premier demographer in the US, used by nearly all marketers and many boradcasters.

The LA Times article points out that LA leads the market in sales of country music recordings.

Prizm Clusters look at lifestyle factors at the level of zip codes, census tracts and even smaller units. The LA market includes a diverse assortment of Prizm Clusters, including those associated with above average consumption of country music. Comparing an SMA market and a Prizm Cluster is not apples and oranges, it's apples and cheese. Prizm Clusters are designed for use in direct mail and other highly targeted marketing (and in political campaigns), not for a BROADcast medium.

 

[radioskeptic]

About why more stations may abandon country: You may want to read Brian Maloney's Aug. 25 commentary on the Inside Radio web site (www.insideradio.com). The headline was, "Have Some Of Country's Biggest Acts Contributed To The Format's Loss Of Stations?"

The message: Even major country stations are having trouble "getting the time of day" from big-name performers, with only a few exceptions. Maloney says you can hardly get a liner or promor, much less concert tickets for contests and other co-operative efforts that could be mutually beneficial for a station and an event.

They're getting as stand-offish as the rockers.

Thoughts?

 

[davideduardo]

The LA Times article points out that LA leads the market in sales of country music recordings.

That is only because the LA metro is 13,000,000 persons. It would be odd that it did not lead in sales, as it is so much bigger than other markets. KZLA alspo was the Country cume leader int he USA. But that was not enough to get more than a 1.6 to 1.7, as it was dwarfed by other formats and interest groups.

 

[Dancerev889]

Everyone keeps talking about white listners but what are "white" people listening too? When Wired signed on they went after white suburban males. The younger generations are listening to hip-hop and R&B more than anything else these days. I had a debate with a listener who told me hip hop was crap and I told him that was his opninion. I mentioned that his father probably thought the samething when he was listening to the Doors when they first came on the scene. If someone put on a rock station that played mostly currents like Good Charlotte and Dashboard Confessional, I think I would throw up. You think hip-hop stinks, nothing is worse than Good Charlotte except maybe for Hansen

 

[SuperRadioFan]

I mentioned that his father probably thought the same thing when he was listening to the Doors when they first came on the scene.

Maybe but at least:
1) A listener could understand EVERY word sung by Jim Morrison
2) You didn't need an interpreter to understand what he and the Doors were singing about
3) You could SING along with any Doors song (at least every one of their singles)
4) Few, if any, words were bleeped out when radio played a Doors song
and the most important:
5) You could light up the Lava Lamp when a Doors song came on! 8)

 

[Dancerev889]

oh and you can understand what Bob Dylan is singing?

You can sing a long with todays music too. Again you are looking it through your musical tastes. Im 32 and I love all music except country and opera. Your point is completely bias.

 

[Irishfl]

I mentioned that his father probably thought the same thing when he was listening to the Doors when they first came on the scene.

Maybe but at least:
1) A listener could understand EVERY word sung by Jim Morrison
2) You didn't need an interpreter to understand what he and the Doors were singing about
3) You could SING along with any Doors song (at least every one of their singles)
4) Few, if any, words were bleeped out when radio played a Doors song
and the most important:
5) You could light up the Lava Lamp when a Doors song came on! 8)

Funny thing, I was watching this show on VH1. They followed around some big rap star (I forget the name) as he went into a studio to record his next song. The cue just stood by a mic with cuecards, reading the lines effortless. I couldn't help, but think, has there ever been another form of music, inwhich you could just read the lines, and not put any heart into it?

 

[SoulCrusher]

If someone put on a rock station that played mostly currents like Good Charlotte and Dashboard Confessional, I think I would throw up. You think hip-hop stinks, nothing is worse than Good Charlotte except maybe for Hansen

I have eclectic tastes, though I tend to lean toward the modern rock, metal and punk rock. I think I would rather listen to anything other than a Modern Rocker built around these pop/punk boy bands like Good Charlotte, Fall Out Boy, and Simple Plan (really, these guys are so horrible that I would actually prefer to listen to Yanni or bad hip-hop like Nelly or D4L). All of these groups may sell a lot of albums, but they appeal to only one demographic (school age Girls) and therefore should not be incorporated onto any format, save for a CHR. How these bands get classified as Alternative baffles me.

Going back to Wired: Last time I listened to them, they were all over the place - basically, it sounded like a 13 year old girl's iPod. What kind of station are they now anyway? A Rhythmic CHR, with some of these "boy bands with guitars" thrown in? Whatever they are supposed to be, I would be shocked if young Caucasian Males are listening. I would guess that Wired is now directly competing with Q 102. The Males you described have probably moved to one of the other hip-hop stations, or maybe even YSP.

 

[Beejus]

these pop/punk boy bands like Good Charlotte, Fall Out Boy, and Simple Plan (really, these guys are so horrible that I would actually prefer to listen to Yanni or bad hip-hop like Nelly or D4L). All of these groups may sell a lot of albums, but they appeal to only one demographic (school age Girls) and therefore should not be incorporated onto any format, save for a CHR. How these bands get classified as Alternative baffles me. [/quote]


AFI, (PLEASE don't start bitching about the radio edit), Taking Back Sunday, Angels and Airwaves, Red Jumpsuit Apparatus, Panic! At the Disco, Rise Against, The All-American Rejects, and Dashboard Confessional are all testing well with Males at the moment. So why not play what they want to hear?

If it's not your cup of tea, then don't listen. I enjoy this type of music. Emo bands like Something Corporate/Jack's Mannequin, Anberlin, Brand New, Jimmy Eat World, My Chemical Romance and more fit my taste, and I'm a 23 year old male, not a school aged girl. Many of my friends listen to the same music too. Yes, more females like them, but it's not ONLY females. Males like the music as well... so it will be played.

 

[SoulCrusher]

AFI, (PLEASE don't start bitching about the radio edit), Taking Back Sunday, Angels and Airwaves, Red Jumpsuit Apparatus, Panic! At the Disco, Rise Against, The All-American Rejects, and Dashboard Confessional are all testing well with Males at the moment. So why not play what they want to hear?

If it's not your cup of tea, then don't listen. I enjoy this type of music. Emo bands like Something Corporate/Jack's Mannequin, Anberlin, Brand New, Jimmy Eat World, My Chemical Romance and more fit my taste, and I'm a 23 year old male, not a school aged girl. Many of my friends listen to the same music too. Yes, more females like them, but it's not ONLY females. Males like the music as well... so it will be played.

Whoa, hold on there. I'm not going to make a broad, sweeping generalization. Those bands I mentioned are basically pure bubblegum, so it's hard to imagine any Males being into them. I do like some of the bands you mentioned - when you think about it, most of the bands you mentioned are drastically different and not likely to win any Nickelodeon awards.

AFI have a goth influence, and I do like much of their material (the new album isn't quite as strong, IMO), as do My Chemical Romance, but it's less pronounced in their case. Rise Against is more of a punk band than emo, and Red Jumpsuit Apparatus is emo/punk/metal, similar to Story Of The Year and Finch's first album - I would think that these bands have almost a 50/50 Male/Female following. Something Corporate / Jack's Mannequin is heavily piano based, and features very professional, intelligent songwriting. Angels & Airwaves has a very '80s sound to it (very different from Blink, thankfully). Anberlin & Brand New rise above the simplistic "I love my girlfriend" sentiments so typical of the genre in many of their songs.

So you see, I'm not anti-emo. The bands I criticized are closer to sounding like Good Charlotte than any emo acts I can think of anyway. But I still have to point that during those Dashboard Confessional performances, the voices in the audience sound awfully high-pitched to me. That's because Dashboard is one of those "I love my girlfriend" bands I referred to before. They're alright, but their Male appeal is minimal. Even if you do like them, it's a guilty pleasure - no man will admit listening to Air Supply, Cher, George Michael, Simple Plan, etc., and Dashboard can go right in there with the rest.