Why?

[Mike Sheridan]

I'm going to hate myself for not leaving this alone but David you made a statement that is a bit far fetched. I don't believe that someone who has grown up listening to their own iPod, CD's or music on the computer is going to turn on the radio when they turn 25 and start listening to 7 minute stop sets and narrow play lists and say, "Wow this is great!" To my own two daughters and most of their friends radio is very foreign to them, the things they listen to have never been played by any radio station here.

If I were a trucker or someone who spent a lot of time traveling between cities you bet I would have satellite radio. If not for the music format maybe for the companionship radio can provide. An iPod or a CD can't provide that, and a voice tracked jock can't provide it either unless they are an exceptional jock.

Seems like most radio stations have become so expensive and have so much debt they can't even afford to staff their stations 24/7 so they voice track.

 

[davideduardo]

I'm going to hate myself for not leaving this alone but David you made a statement that is a bit far fetched. I don't believe that someone who has grown up listening to their own iPod, CD's or music on the computer is going to turn on the radio when they turn 25 and start listening to 7 minute stop sets and narrow play lists and say, "Wow this is great!" To my own two daughters and most of their friends radio is very foreign to them, the things they listen to have never been played by any radio station here.

Quite a bit of analysis has been made in recent years of Arbitron data at the respondent level via diary analysis and, while teens use less radio than in the 70's and before in terms of time spent listening, the cume is only off a slight bit... on the order of 5% to 6%. And as teens mature, there is in the early part of 18-24 a growth of listening levels such that by age 24, it is quite normal based on history.

As children become adults, their job, family responsabilities and other things leave far less time to administer playlists on an iPod. But, more than this, these no-longer-teens have memories and a mental file of familiar songs; the interest in new music declines rapidly and the interest in hearing "favorites" that are familiar increases.

Several recently published studies have shown that the aveage iPod has 300 songs! This is often less than the playlist of a typical radio station.

Beyond that, many radio companies have studied the behaviour of 18-24's on a very proprietary basis and found that there is a "coming to radio" by even the light users.

As I have mentioned before, a study cited just last week shows that 10% of the music buying public purchases 40% of the music... the new music and the new artists. Most want only familiar stuff and they find radio does a pretty good job of presenting it with no work on their part.

If I were a trucker or someone who spent a lot of time traveling between cities you bet I would have satellite radio. If not for the music format maybe for the companionship radio can provide. An iPod or a CD can't provide that, and a voice tracked jock can't provide it either unless they are an exceptional jock.

The main issue for truckers is not having to put up with either constant changes of station of fady, staticy long distance AM. Most of the satellite music channels are voice tracked, too. But there is a lot of good talk and sports content and this is very valuable to long distance or inter-city drivers.

Seems like most radio stations have become so expensive and have so much debt they can't even afford to staff their stations 24/7 so they voice track.

A lesser percentage of stations are automated (called "voice tracking" now) now than in the 70's. And debt in radio is not a major issue... most acquisitions were made with equity financing or merger, not loans (I would love to see that urban legend die... General Electric has a higher debt to equity ratio than Clear Channel!). The multiples paid for stations now is about what was paid in the late 80's... so they have not become more expensive, either.

 

[fred flintstone]

David,

You keep throwing "facts" and "figures" around but never provide links or citations which would allow anyone to check your conclusions. I hope the NAB takes their head out of the sand once in a while to give you a nice retainer because you do an excellent job spinning the NAB line.

Do you have any studies showing vaudeville is doing just fine, too?

 

[radiofriend1]

dude it ain't rocket science. ADVERTISERS aren't interested in targeting 55+ audience-they never have been. whether it's right or wrong or will mean the end of your doo wop music is beside the point. it is what it is. i hate it as much as you but it has nothing to do with us.

if u are in radio u are now learning a valuable lesson about who's opinion counts most-----THE AUDIENCE. they listen less and advertisers just aren't that interested in targeting them---they see no future in people who are aging. advertisers figure "get a customer at 25 or 30 and maybe you can have them for 10 years"---doesn't work that way with 60 yr olds.

so u have two choices-----continue to try and cram a format you don't want to let go of down the throats of people who will give u less and less listening and will result in less and less revenue because advertisers won't target them. u can have a 12 share 55+ and drown in red ink

OR--- u can find an open format hole and fill it according to listener demand and expectation. radio listeners regardless of age are sick & tired of radio dictating what they should listen to. it's why these jack and similar stations are, by & large, doing well--- they're the polar opposite of oldies stations with 300 song playlists that have never evolved thru the yrs like every other radio format

being in denial is fine but don't shoot the messenger.

 

[Johnny Morgan]

David,

Thank you for your data. I knew you'd have it.

I didn't know you programmed for XM, but that's good to know. And it's a bit surprising to hear that, essentially, college-aged kids are listening to radio (coming back), considering that iPods, satellite, other media (downloading, internet streams, etc.) are targeted at them and the big news/culture reports on sales, etc. highlight that segment. Just curious--this group, any data on their listening to non-commercial stations vs. commercial ones? I suspect that it's still pro-commercial (probably a result of marketing).

I'm still willing to bet that there will be some form of reduction in listening 10 years down the road--I guess time will tell us whether I'm right or you and the past are right. Regardless, I'm still convinced that some change in the business model would be good, if for no other reason than to permit more choice in formats and programming. There's another reason for the NAB's lobbying against LPFM besides interference, and that's share depletion caused by audiences leaving to try something new.

I mean, look at the fuss they've made over XM.

 

[davideduardo]

David,

You keep throwing "facts" and "figures" around but never provide links or citations which would allow anyone to check your conclusions. I hope the NAB takes their head out of the sand once in a while to give you a nice retainer because you do an excellent job spinning the NAB line.

I feel it is fair to show conclusions of review of Arbitron data, but our contract prohibits giving the actual data to anyone not subscribed. Thus, no links. I also can state the results of diary tabulations I have done with a team of people (last time it was 15 people for 2 days) as well as "note comparison" with other reviewers. And I can summarize proprietary research as long as it does not show internal strategy decisions.

None of this data has links. All comes from either Arbitron data and analysys (trending, special tabulations, etc) or from prprietary research. If you have $10 million to spend on research, you can obtain the same data, too.

 

[amfmsw]

This is the most inteligent discussion I've ever read on this board. Dave and Johnny both have excellent points, and some miss "it" alltogrether. I only want to add my two cents that the Oldies format centered at 1970 is NOT a 55+ format, and is flexible to garner new listeners.

Also, the myth that 55+ listeners/viewers are not wanted by agencies is total, uninformed nonsense. If it wasn't for those people, all of the network news channels and broadcasts would have gone dark long ago.

For the love of pete, just look at all of the spots run on network radio & tv..from toes (Lamisil) to peenie (Viagara/Cialis) to tummy (Prilosec) to head (too many to mention), they all tareget 50+! The Luxury car, upscale jewelery, real estate, travel, finance planing...all target 45-65 year olds. There is a budget for these people, the oldies stations just need to recognize this, and stop expecting the same advertising catagories to produce. They need to address the needs of the audience, and chase the money.

 

[RadioMan203]

This is the most inteligent discussion I've ever read on this board. Dave and Johnny both have excellent points, and some miss "it" alltogrether. I only want to add my two cents that the Oldies format centered at 1970 is NOT a 55+ format, and is flexible to garner new listeners.

Also, the myth that 55+ listeners/viewers are not wanted by agencies is total, uninformed nonsense. If it wasn't for those people, all of the network news channels and broadcasts would have gone dark long ago.

For the love of pete, just look at all of the spots run on network radio & tv..from toes (Lamisil) to peenie (Viagara/Cialis) to tummy (Prilosec) to head (too many to mention), they all tareget 50+! The Luxury car, upscale jewelery, real estate, travel, finance planing...all target 45-65 year olds. There is a budget for these people, the oldies stations just need to recognize this, and stop expecting the same advertising catagories to produce. They need to address the needs of the audience, and chase the money.

You’re most certainly on the mark with this. The one thing that differentiates between the 18-34 and the 50+ cume is that older Americans are less likely to make impulse purchases, as most usually think about and research any planned purchase. The 18-34 crowd in contrast purchases without much thought, perhaps due to having more disposable income.

 

[gr8oldies]

An oldies station would still have to be an effective buy, and frankly, an oldies station isn't going to get the lion's share of the audience when its shared with news/talk, country, A/C and who knows what else. That's why you see the upper demo advertisers on TV, doing direct mail and specialty magazines. Empty nesters already have their microwave, refrigerator, furniture and other household stuff. They aren't buying as much on credit as the younger folks. If there's not one radio buy for 55 plus in LA, there's not a lot of hope for pre-64 oldies..and maybe not much for 64-70.

 

[fred flintstone]

One thing here seems to have escaped everybody's notice.

Advertisers will buy stations with audiences that skew old.
They just won't buy Oldies and Standards.
They will buy all news and news-talk stations.
The median age of the news-talk audience is 59, with 59% of listeners older than the money demos.
The median age for all news is 58.
In contrast, the median for Oldies listeners is 51, with more than half of listeners in the money demos.

It's not just about age-targeted marketing. ???

 

[davideduardo]

One thing here seems to have escaped everybody's notice.

Advertisers will buy stations with audiences that skew old.

They will buy such stations if there is a significant component in the total audience that is under 55.

Clarification: we are talking about the markets driven by transactional business, not small, gfnerally unrated markets where direct sales is all there is.

If an LA buy comes up for 35-54, and a station is mostly 55+, but has significant 35-44 (like KFI) they can get on the buy by pricing the 35-54 competitively and in accordance with the 35-54 CPP goal of the campaign.

They just won't buy Oldies and Standards.

Not true. Oldies and standards become no-buys because nearly all thier audience is over 55 and they can not compete. KGO in San Francisco is off 30% in billing over the last 7 years because the 35-54 is eroding, and they can not compete for agency buys. So they get a lot of car dealers that buy direct and re-fi direct accounts and such. But they don't get the agency stuff, and it is hurting them. This is because they have gone from top 3 25-54 10 years ago to #12 in the last trend. [/quote]

They will buy all news and news-talk stations.

Because these have a stong under-55 component.

The median age of the news-talk audience is 59, with 59% of listeners older than the money demos.
The median age for all news is 58.
In contrast, the median for Oldies listeners is 51, with more than half of listeners in the money demos.

The oldies stations that still exist are billing nicely. For example, KOOL is virtually tied for #1 in billing in Phoenix, and many that have changed have been huge billers. But the owners, not the advertisers, have decided there is little future in the format and they change before the bottom drops out. A station decision, not an advertiser one. The stations are seeing that they have to reduce the ad rate every year as the 25-54's drop out, and the revenues are declining.

On the other hand, what do you do with an AM talk station or news station? You hold in, reducing rates, with declining billing, as long as it is profitable as there is no alternative format.

It's not just about age-targeted marketing. ???

Actually, that is all it is about. It's also about the fact that onece the news talk stations are out of the money demos, AM is dead.

 

[cyberdad]

. It's also about the fact that onece the news talk stations are out of the money demos, AM is dead.

Hey, actually, I'm damn near dead myself! (cough, wheeze) As I posted earlier on the 50s-60s oldies forum...(gasp, choke)..

I'm a recent arrival to the undesireable demo.  And advertisers sure are smart not to want to talk to me.  I don't buy stuff or change habits....except during the past 18 months since joining the "undesired" demo when I've....

Taken nearly two dozen plane trips...including 3 to Europe
Changed my preferred brand of soft drink (to coke zero..is that even legal at my age?)
Refinanced my home
Purchased computer, monitor, fax, scanner (seperately)
Spent over 150 nights in major name brand hotels
Changed my preferred band of imported beer (to Guiness...if anyone cares. Brilliant!)
Rented at least 30 cars in nearly as many cities
Changed my preferred brand of Razor/Shaving Cream
Purchased a famous name refrigerator and dishwasher (Its a "William Shakespeare")
Changed my preferred brand of gasoline
Purchased/Upgraded phone and broadband communications equipment
Doubled the amount of insurance purchased (homeowner/car/life/health)
Achieved or maintained platinum or other elite status with four international hotel chains, three airlines and four car rental companies
Purchased three Ipods and other stereo equipment
Changed my preferred supermarket for weekly shopping (Yeah...I do the grocery shopping....for four, count 'em, four people)

Yeah....no value here.  I'm too old, too set in my ways, and I don't buy enough.  Why, the only people I spend more than are my three (25-34 demo) kids!  Nah...Mr./Ms Advertiser...you don't wanna talk to me.  Thass right, no value....and as I said before....One foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel!  And besides, I'm quite obviously an exception....just like the three or four other guys on my block in the demo who've spent/done more over the past year and a half than me!

Now perhaps one would think I was whining or lamenting the loss of oldies stations.  Nope!  I like oldies, but I don't miss the now-defunct oldies stations.  As for the talkers....I find most of them to be drones. I rarely listen. Give me my Ipod, my web streams, or my satellite.

All I am is merely somewhat bemused at times by the mentality of some of the geniuses in the marketing industry that's been so good to me for so many years!  (And those who take inevitable stuff that happens for obvious logical reasons so damned seriously!)

 

[jimbo]

As a 51 year old baby boomer it's difficult to watch mainstream radio stop catering to me. Advertisers decree that 55+ is too old for them and radio stations have to adapt or die.

But rather than complain about it to no avail vote with your ears. Get XM or Sirius or an Ipod. I got a Part 15 FM transmitter and with a few bucks of software on an old PC I rotate my own Top 1000 oldies tossing in the jingles from the past. It's 24/7 commercial free oldies bliss. Every so often I record a few hours on cassette and use those on the road (cassette refers to old recording technology).

 

[fred flintstone]

I'm a recent arrival to the undesireable demo. And advertisers sure are smart not to want to talk to me. I don't buy stuff or change habits....except during the past 18 months since joining the "undesired" demo when I've....

Taken nearly two dozen plane trips...including 3 to Europe
Changed my preferred brand of soft drink (to coke zero..is that even legal at my age?)
Refinanced my home
Purchased computer, monitor, fax, scanner (seperately)
Spent over 150 nights in major name brand hotels
Changed my preferred band of imported beer (to Guiness...if anyone cares. Brilliant!)
Rented at least 30 cars in nearly as many cities
Changed my preferred brand of Razor/Shaving Cream
Purchased a famous name refrigerator and dishwasher (Its a "William Shakespeare")
Changed my preferred brand of gasoline
Purchased/Upgraded phone and broadband communications equipment
Doubled the amount of insurance purchased (homeowner/car/life/health)
Achieved or maintained platinum or other elite status with four international hotel chains, three airlines and four car rental companies
Purchased three Ipods and other stereo equipment
Changed my preferred supermarket for weekly shopping (Yeah...I do the grocery shopping....for four, count 'em, four people)

Yeah....no value here. I'm too old, too set in my ways, and I don't buy enough. Why, the only people I spend more than are my three (25-34 demo) kids! Nah...Mr./Ms Advertiser...you don't wanna talk to me. Thass right, no value....and as I said before....One foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel! And besides, I'm quite obviously an exception....just like the three or four other guys on my block in the demo who've spent/done more over the past year and a half than me!

Not an exception. But you bring up another important point.
Marketers in the product categories you mention mostly do no use radio.
Marketers who do target 50+ consumers don't buy radio.
Those who buy radio, don't target 50+ consumers.

Gasoline? Now you are showing your age. Not only do gasoline companies not have to advertise, they don't clean your windshield and give away free glasses or silverware. Mostly they won't fix your car either, but they do sell candy bars, bad coffee and Twinkies.

I thought Guiness was a Stout. :