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Will "Free FM" last?

If the new Free FM format Infinity is building hits the air in cities where existing FM/hot talkers are, as well as Philly, San Diego and others. My question is, with the "Free" imaging likely targeting a younger demo of Stern listeners (you don't have to pay to listen to Rush), is Infinity/CBS using this new imaging as a temporary stunt to get publicity for their Stern replacements and to keep people excited about music on FM vs. Sirius? It would appear that Infinity has been surpassed by CC in their excitement to flip FMs to talk, but in this case, it would be for news/talk. Infinity hasn't done much with its traditional FM talk model in years, and has demonstrated zero patience with recent experiments with the format in Fresno, Buffalo, Austin, etc. I don't think it would be out of the realm of possibilities to launch these new "Free" stations and see them gone by the time Stern returns for his sophomore year at Sirius.
 
Just What IS "Free FM"?

>It would appear
> that Infinity has been surpassed by CC in their excitement
> to flip FMs to talk, but in this case, it would be for
> news/talk.

That's my unanswered question. And we can now bring in Mr. Severin for this speculation. He's actually the only talk personality Infinity has announced for its own stations (not WW1 syndication). And the Infinity president, Mr. Hollander, seemed rather quick to dismiss the Free FM speculation BASED UPON Jay Severin's affiliation announcement.

Well, here's the thing. Jay now has four stations. Only one of them is an FM talker...long-time format leader WJFK in Washington, DC, which itself has run political talk from time to time. Remember, 'JFK was the long-time home of Watergate figure and syndie host G. Gordon Liddy, and runs WW1's Bill O'Reilly in middays. Though WJFK is included in most of the "Free FM" speculation, it has a history of non-"hot talk" shows.

> Infinity hasn't done much with its traditional FM
> talk model in years, and has demonstrated zero patience with
> recent experiments with the format in Fresno, Buffalo,
> Austin, etc. I don't think it would be out of the realm of
> possibilities to launch these new "Free" stations and see
> them gone by the time Stern returns for his sophomore year
> at Sirius.

Here's a thought:

Infinity sees the writing on the wall. Talk will move in large numbers to FM, as the number of younger listeners who even realize there IS an AM band dwindles to nothing. Talk HAS to move to FM eventually...it needs those listeners to "grow up with" the format, and if the listener isn't even THERE on the AM band at 21, he or she isn't going to be listening to AM at 40.

What KIND of talk is open to question.

Go to the San Francisco board here on Radio-Info. Among the regulars on the board, at least two people appear to have a lot of information on Infinity's new talk station at 106.9, the former religious Family Radio outlet KEAR, now KIFR, run by veteran talk programmer Ken Kohl (KFBK/KSTE/KNEW/KQKE).

One of those regulars described the target audience for the new station down to the kind of shoes they wear, it would seem. Here, here's a sample, this one seems to be "informed speculation":

<a target="_blank" href=http://www.radio-info.com/mods/board?Post=551717&Board=sanfrancisco>http://www.radio-info.com/mods/board?Post=551717&Board=sanfrancisco</a>

"Blue is for the 25-year-old with callouses on his hand; they're after something older, smarter... perhaps a bit of the Maxim irreverance with GQ intelligence and an empathy for pop culture and lifestyle substance that might captivate a 30-something woman, too."

If that doesn't sound like a marketing plan, I don't know what does. :D I don't know "PJ", but his/her messages give me an indication that he/she at least has experience with KIFR's new VP/GM.

Does that mean they could still do political talk in there somewhere in the daily mix, reinventing the format (a la Rush Limbaugh in 1984 just up the road in Sacramento) to make it more "FM friendly" and younger skewing? Who knows?

-OA<P ID="signature">______________
Ohio Media Watch - <a target="_blank" href=http://ohiomedia.blogspot.com>http://ohiomedia.blogspot.com</a></P>
 
Re: Just What IS "Free FM"?

> > it needs those listeners to "grow up with" the format, and if the listener
> > isn't even THERE on the AM band at 21, he or she isn't going to be listening
> > to AM at 40.


OA,

I'm going to challenge your assertion that "if the listener isn't even THERE on the AM band at 21, he or she isn't going to be listening to AM at 40." - I'm 30 right now, and increasingly I see this "growing up with" phenomenon with myself, my friends, and other people in my age group.

Although the under 25 crowd might not know AM exists now, as they grow and mature, leave college, start out on their own, get a full-time job, think about buying a house and settling down - then they will start to realize what is on the AM dial. I use 25 as the cut-off age, because many people are done with college by then (although I wasn't).

Unlike the under 25 crowd, the above 25 crowd spends their day working full-time - so they start to lose touch with what is cool / and conversely, what isn't. They start to lose touch with the up-and-coming bands, who are on the cutting edge, ... so on and so on, the FM dial starts to lose some of its' allure, and AM doesn't look so bad anymore.

The above 25 crowd starts to look for something different out of the world and life (and, of course, radio too); than the under 25 crowd.

More and more I notice that my friends and I that used to only listen to FM music stations (hard rock for me, rock and country for my friends) - are increasingly turning to AM stations as we get older - for political talk, sports talk, public radio, religious talk, etc.
 
You're Right, But 10 Years Too Old

> More and more I notice that my friends and I that used to
> only listen to FM music stations (hard rock for me, rock and
> country for my friends) - are increasingly turning to AM
> stations as we get older - for political talk, sports talk,
> public radio, religious talk, etc.

Thanks for the input...it's very interesting!

I still stand by what I say, though. I don't think it's today's 30 year-olds that are the problem for AM radio. I think it's today's 21 year-olds that are the problem for both AM and FM radio.

Don't believe me? Then take the word of Infinity head Joel Hollander himself, in this article published TODAY in the Chicago Tribune:

<a target="_blank" href=http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/columnists/chi-0510190053oct19,1,6584683.column>http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/columnists/chi-0510190053oct19,1,6584683.column</a>

Quoting:

---------

(Hollander's) kid told his old man that next to no one at (his) school was listening to broadcast radio. Practically everyone in the dorms was getting music, news and entertainment in other ways.

Dad might as well have asked if anyone was listening to 8-track tapes.

"That was a little scary and it's the advent of all this technology," Hollander said at a recent advertising forum. "We have to make it appealing there. We have to make reasons for them to want to listen."

----------

Oddly enough, Hollander uses the Tribune column to say that Infinity is very much into talk radio. He doesn't approach the "Free FM" rumors/reports at all, but he's all but signaling a major push by Infinity into more talk radio.

No, I think you're on the edge of the generation which still relates to broadcast radio, both AM and FM. If you were about 10 years younger, it'd be a different story. And I really don't think today's 21 year-olds are going to be finding the AM band once they hit 30...they're barely finding the *FM* band now.

-OA<P ID="signature">______________
Ohio Media Watch - <a target="_blank" href=http://ohiomedia.blogspot.com>http://ohiomedia.blogspot.com</a></P>
 
Re: You're Right, But 10 Years Too Old

> Quoting:
>
> ---------
>
> (Hollander's) kid told his old man that next to no one at
> (his) school was listening to broadcast radio. Practically
> everyone in the dorms was getting music, news and
> entertainment in other ways.
>

I highly doubt that "no one" at his school listens to broadcast radio. Maybe this kid's circle of friends is too cool to admit to listening, but are they representative of the student population at large? If you look at the demographic breakdowns in most any Arbitron book you'll still see a lot of under 25 listeners. Who do you think altrock, CHR and rap stations are targeting? Yes, there are more choices today and radio isn't the only option like it was for those of us over 40 but to say "no one" listens is being Chicken Little.
 
Re: You're Right, But 10 Years Too Old

> I highly doubt that "no one" at his school listens to
> broadcast radio. Maybe this kid's circle of friends is too
> cool to admit to listening, but are they representative of
> the student population at large?

Perhaps Mr. Hollander was overly surprised that broadcast stations were not universally listened to, on his son's campus. Maybe he expected everyone to be tuned to FM, and saw little of it.

> If you look at the
> demographic breakdowns in most any Arbitron book you'll
> still see a lot of under 25 listeners. Who do you think
> altrock, CHR and rap stations are targeting? Yes, there
> are more choices today and radio isn't the only option like
> it was for those of us over 40 but to say "no one" listens
> is being Chicken Little.

All pretty much true, but...

The problem isn't that "no one under 25 is listening to FM". The problem is that far, far fewer of them are. I'm willing to bet that the numbers are falling off a cliff. Sure, there are still stations that target the 12-24 crowd, and do well, but they're aiming at a much smaller piece of the pie than similar stations were 20 years ago.

Does this mean that there won't BE a 12-24 piece of the radio pie? Nope, but maybe in 5 years, the "youth FM audience" will be like AM stations targetting standards listeners...a small, niche audience. And if these young folks aren't there, they won't be there for over-air radio 10 years later.

-OA<P ID="signature">______________
Ohio Media Watch - <a target="_blank" href=http://ohiomedia.blogspot.com>http://ohiomedia.blogspot.com</a></P>
 
They will listen to the same AM radio N/T shows on their mp3 players and on the internet.

OA,

Let me re-phrase my argument - I think as the 21 and under crowd matures and grows older (above age 25):

* It is true that those under 21 will be more likely to listen via the internet or via podcasts (than past generations),

* But you will still see them listening to the same AM radio news-talk programs that you currently primarily hear on AM radio: political news/talk (N/T), sports N/T, public radio N/T, religous N/T, etc.

For example, so they will still be downloading the same AM radio news-talk, like Rush's or Franken's latest show onto their mp3 player or downloading it via the internet while they are at work or at home.

* Similarly, as they mature and grow older, they will "awaken" to find these N/T programs on the AM band that now speak to them.

So for the under 21 crowd to not be aware of the AM band while in high school and college, is not the death kneel for the AM band.




> ---------
>
> (Hollander's) kid told his old man that next to no one at
> (his) school was listening to broadcast radio. Practically
> everyone in the dorms was getting music, news and
> entertainment in other ways.
>
> Dad might as well have asked if anyone was listening to
> 8-track tapes.
>
> "That was a little scary and it's the advent of all this
> technology," Hollander said at a recent advertising forum.
> "We have to make it appealing there. We have to make reasons
> for them to want to listen."
>
> ----------
 
Re: You're Right, But 10 Years Too Old

> The problem isn't that "no one under 25 is listening to FM". The problem is
> that far, far fewer of them are.

My anecdotal evidence suggests that the under 25 cume hasn't dropped that dramatically, but TSL has.<P ID="signature">______________
"If you want to get laid, go to college. If you want an education, go to the library." - Frank Zappa

<a href="http://saltydog.5gigs.com">
The Salty Dog</a>
</P>
 
It's The Content, Not The Band

Just a note...we're closer than you think. :D

> For example, so they will still be downloading the same AM
> radio news-talk, like Rush's or Franken's latest show onto
> their mp3 player or downloading it via the internet while
> they are at work or at home.

In one of my recent rants - I think it may have been on the Cleveland board, but maybe here - I basically shouted that news/talk radio stations HAVE to get themselves into podcasting, somehow. Some way. If your younger in-demo listeners are walking around with iPods, put your audio in their ears.

Clear Channel and Infinity, to name just two, seem to get this. Clear Channel has made an effort to podcast many of their big local talk stars, not to mention Premiere's big names (Rush, Glenn Beck, Jim Rome, etc.). Infinity seems like it's doing the same. And Viacom is putting audio of just about everything CBS TV news does in podcast form. For free, all of the above (aside from Rush, Beck, Rome, etc. being behind their paid "member section" wall).

An executive with Clear Channel put it best. The company has seen the light... they're a CONTENT provider, not just an owner of AM and FM transmitter facilities.

> * Similarly, as they mature and grow older, they will
> "awaken" to find these N/T programs on the AM band that now
> speak to them.

I don't think so, really, unless they have an overwhelming reason to hear these programs live during their regular live airing. If you've got the in-hand equivalent of a TiVo, and can listen to a show whenever you want, why do you need to be tied down to noon to 3 PM, when you can listen at your leisure any time later that day or even week?

And if they do want to track down the shows live, for whatever reason, by the time they get to this age, I'm willing to bet that most major news/talkers will have migrated to FM. Or a HD subchannel on FM (assuming HD has much market penetration by then - we're talking 10-ish years down the road). It's hard not to imagine that with big companies like Infinity and Clear Channel migrating to FM for local talk, the AM band will be littered with mostly brokered, religious and niche music stations, and maybe not even that much, given the HD subchannels.

Or maybe the talk will stay on AM, but digitally. (The implementation of HD/IBOC on the AM band is even worse than on FM.)

Or maybe the national shows will mostly be heard via satellite radio, which in the 10 year period I'm talking about above, is projected to grow exponentially.

> So for the under 21 crowd to not be aware of the AM band
> while in high school and college, is not the death kneel for
> the AM band.

I think just the general march of technology will leave the current analog AM band behind at some point.

-OA<P ID="signature">______________
Ohio Media Watch - <a target="_blank" href=http://ohiomedia.blogspot.com>http://ohiomedia.blogspot.com</a></P>
 
Re: It's The Content, Not The Band

> An executive with Clear Channel put it best. The company
> has seen the light... they're a CONTENT provider, not just
> an owner of AM and FM transmitter facilities.

True, but I can get a $10 mic at Wal-mart and theoretically deliver my podcast to as many people as Rush reaches. The conglomerates aren't spending $150 million for an FM in order to provide content; they're buying a finite piece of real estate on a very well-traveled highway.
 
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