I was wondering about this the other day. Pretty much every signal in all three markets can be heard in all three markets. Right now, really only 1057 The X and Channel 106.7 seem to be openly targeting all three markets. Let's say the markets combine, what would the new radio landscape look like? And is there any disadvantage to what 1057 and 1067 do....are they sacrificing anybody by going after all three markets instead of targeting one specific area?
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Will Harrisburg, York and Lancaster ever "morph" into one market?
- Thread starter danwxman
- Start date
Most signals can be heard in the other markets but none of them have tower sites that make strong building penetration in all three markets at once, especially in today's heavy electrical noise environment. Not sure the people of the three markets would accept it well. Harrisburg does not want to hear much about anything in Lancaster or York. Lancaster or York does not want to hear much about Harrisburg daily, etc. Each market has its own identity. You can't be all things to all people at once. Many have tried and failed. In years past some manager's tried to get Arbitron to make it one market. You would immediately become the 40th something market in the country. Not everyone agreed.
This was rumored to have been proposed in the early 80s when a couple of class Cs dominated all three markets (WQXA, WRKZ). If hasn't happened by now, it probably never will unless a majority of subscribers petition Arbitron to do so. Money talks. There's probably no advantage to do so as every owner has a stick or two that covers only one of the markets well. This could result in a loss of revenue. Instead of an agency buying three-deep in each market...Harrisburg, York, and Lancaster, they might buy only three-deep in a hypothetical "H-Y-L" metro.
Nope. That'd be like asking Reading and Allentown and Trenton and Wilmington to all morph into the Philadelphia market because people from those cities sometimes cross-listen to other stations. Still, most people in those areas stick with the local stations and have nothing in common with the others. One could argue that Harrisburg, York, and Lancaster are all one TV market, just like Reading, Allentown, Trenton, Philadelphia, and Wilmington are all one TV market, but the whole idea of radio is to be more local than TV. To fill in the local gaps that the larger TV markets miss.
Actually, Harrisburg-York-Lancaster would be market #38, bumping Austin down a notch--placing H-Y-L just behind Milwaukee-Racine and just ahead of Austin & Indianapolis.
The combined revenue of the individual H-Y-L markets is nowhere close to any of these three markets. Indy does 50 percent more in radio revenue. The big difference, of course, is national money. For the braintrusts at CC, Cumulus & Citadel, it should be extremely tempting to have the opportunity to enhance the value of these stations by re-positioning these "small-to-medium" markets as a "major market"--and possibly add 50 percent to the bottom lines of these clusters.
But, yeah, it would require the Big Three agreeing & petitioning Arbitron to combine the three markets into one.
Could it happen? Hell, yes. Will it happen? Don't bet your house on it.
The combined revenue of the individual H-Y-L markets is nowhere close to any of these three markets. Indy does 50 percent more in radio revenue. The big difference, of course, is national money. For the braintrusts at CC, Cumulus & Citadel, it should be extremely tempting to have the opportunity to enhance the value of these stations by re-positioning these "small-to-medium" markets as a "major market"--and possibly add 50 percent to the bottom lines of these clusters.
But, yeah, it would require the Big Three agreeing & petitioning Arbitron to combine the three markets into one.
Could it happen? Hell, yes. Will it happen? Don't bet your house on it.
R
ratingsgeek
Guest
Market #38
Harrisburg/York/Lancaster would really be pretty similar geographically to several existing multi-city Arbitron markets. Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point, Greenville/New Bern/Jacksonville and Fort Myers/Naples/Marco Island to name a few. And the latter two markets were specifically formed at the request of the leading owners in the markets. The smaller owners had no choice in the matter. Here, the 3 "C" companies could make it happen, very easily.
Harrisburg/Lancaster/Lebanon/York is Nielsen's 39th largest TV market. Ask the TV operators how much money it's worth to be a Top 50 maket as opposed to being 3 or 4 very small TV markets.
The answer, collectively, is hundreds of millions of dollars a year.
Too many radio folks slept through math class.
Harrisburg/York/Lancaster would really be pretty similar geographically to several existing multi-city Arbitron markets. Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point, Greenville/New Bern/Jacksonville and Fort Myers/Naples/Marco Island to name a few. And the latter two markets were specifically formed at the request of the leading owners in the markets. The smaller owners had no choice in the matter. Here, the 3 "C" companies could make it happen, very easily.
Harrisburg/Lancaster/Lebanon/York is Nielsen's 39th largest TV market. Ask the TV operators how much money it's worth to be a Top 50 maket as opposed to being 3 or 4 very small TV markets.
The answer, collectively, is hundreds of millions of dollars a year.
Too many radio folks slept through math class.
Seltzer said:Not going to happen. Stop dreaming. The entire market doesn't even subscribe to Arbitron. I was told recently the Cumulus stations in York and Harrisburg are not even subscribers any more. Why do you think York and Harrisburg ratings are always embargoed?
Oh, no dreaming here--The C's haven't shown a shitload of brilliance in about 10 years, when they scooped up their collective boatload of properties that made some of them very, very rich. But FWIW, money is what makes consolidation of these markets even worth thinking about. Add another $30 million in national money to the pot--the difference between Indy & H-Y-L (remember, Hbg-York-Lanc is BIGGER than Indy)--and split it three ways... covert it to bottom-line cash flow... and multiiply it by 8-9-10 in cluster value (as radio real estate)... and with the stroke of a pen, CC alone has made $100 million. Pretty tempting. Even Dickey and Farid can grasp that.
Math is our friend.
But, yeah, you're right. Won't happen.
vetguy said:"This could result in a loss of revenue. Instead of an agency buying three-deep in each market...Harrisburg, York, and Lancaster, they might buy only three-deep in a hypothetical "H-Y-L" metro."
What he said.
And if you're a WQXA, you get bought at market #104 (York) rates instead of market #38 rates. No, Vetguy, QXA doesn't get any consideration for their serious "spill" into two other markets. They get bought for York at rates based on their performance in York. To quote a few hundred agency buyers, "Hey, you want the buy or not?" Citadel does not turn down buys.
Similar, if not quite as dramatic, problem for every Class B FM in any of the three markets. Leaving lots of money on the table. For a WROZ, it's market #112 money instead of market #38 money. Mind-numbing difference in $$$.
Good decision.
I understand the math. But it's not going to happen.
For Arbitron to consider this, all parties would have to be in agreement in all 3 cities. All parties would have to subscribe.
Cumulus is now a non-subscriber and probably not willing to pay the freight.
Do you think Radio Hanover and Radio Gettysburg are going to be willing to pay market #38 Arbitron rates? Or Hall?
Can local businesses now start charging more to their customers because this would be market #38? In this economy?
Everybody's local rate cards going to increase to what Indy type local rates would be? And local businesses are going to pay?
No...Central PA is made up of three smaller cities with local customers who believe they are part of smaller communities.
Nice pipe dream. Never happen.
For Arbitron to consider this, all parties would have to be in agreement in all 3 cities. All parties would have to subscribe.
Cumulus is now a non-subscriber and probably not willing to pay the freight.
Do you think Radio Hanover and Radio Gettysburg are going to be willing to pay market #38 Arbitron rates? Or Hall?
Can local businesses now start charging more to their customers because this would be market #38? In this economy?
Everybody's local rate cards going to increase to what Indy type local rates would be? And local businesses are going to pay?
No...Central PA is made up of three smaller cities with local customers who believe they are part of smaller communities.
Nice pipe dream. Never happen.
joepa4ever, you have no clue how radio sales work.
pdgreatness said:joepa4ever, you have no clue how radio sales work.
Omigod, does this mean I have to send back all these commissions? The money's already been spent--some of it decades ago!
You're right, of course. I have no clue. Sorry to have interrupted your party with Big Picture stuff. Let's get back to discussing "worst formats" and the like.
Seltzer said:From an "air talent ego" standpoint, I'm sure everybody would love this to be market #38.
Are there any Arbitron markets around the country that have combined three clearly defined metropolitan areas into one?
Most hyphenated markets have been that way since their start, but there are a few examples of two markets combining: Gainesville-Ocala, Fort Myers-Naples, and in larger markets--way back--Seattle and Tacoma were once separate, as I believe were Miami and Fort Lauderdale.
Harrisburg & York & Lancaster have one thing in common with all of those markets that would help justify a combination: a single Nielsen DMA--an already-unified TV market.
Marketers--major ad agencies--already perceive the market as being H-Y-L (yeah, yeah, Lebanon, too), and are annoyed that they have to make three times the number of radio buys.
That is one of the big reasons that the radio market(s) generate significantly less national agency money than their counterparts in Indianapolis and other similarly-sized markets.
It's not easy. They're not done by lunch.
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