Will IBOC HD Radio Help Stimulate XM and Sirius?

[Rocco]

This is a worry of mine.

I don't have an agenda one way or the other regarding IBOC, but for $500 you can't purchase an IBOC radio that gets any of the new streams, only the old ones that are duplicated anyway on people's existing analog FM receivers (that I'll bet most feel work just fine). If there were 1) unique proramming that they; 2) desired highly they might spring the $500, but getting people to shell out big bucks just to get the SAME THING with a slight improvement? It's not worth the money. Even when a couple of new streams are available in a market I don't think it will be very attractive to the overwhelming majority of listeners. But that's not the worrisome part: I think that most consumers who are adventurous enough to look around for something new in radios -- maybe having been spurred on by an interest in HD Radio -- will certainly find satellite radio with 140 new channels as a slam-dunk, hands-down better choice for them as they survey the marketplace...and that's scary.

This is a bad move by the broadcast industry to jump on IBOC HD Radio, especially if it has the potential of increasing interest in satellite radio this way. I believe that this is a knee-jerk reactionary move by some suits, many of whom I'm sure you'll agree act sometimes like overgrown children with ADHD. They felt compelled to flinch, they failed to think things through, and they came up with a bad plan (in addition to having been sold a bill of goods by iBiquity).

I think that the broadcast radio industry is about to open a can of worms that, years from now we'll look back and say we shouldn't have shot ourselves in the foot. We should have just emphasized local programming with local contact with listenters and left well enough alone. Sometimes the best course of action is to do nothing, especially if a plan of overt action is ill-conceived.

(And no, I don't have any hidden agenda)

 

[Kent]

OK, I'll bite. IBOC certainly has its share of problems, especially when it comes to AM. I'd even agree with you that doing nothing and working on the receiving end of broadcast radio instead of the sending end would probably have been a better solution.

However, short of government-mandated sunsetting and/or manufacturer-mandated conversion, both of which I do worry about, I don't think IBOC in and of itself is going to stimulate XM and Sirius. Why? One reason is because the majority of people who are aware of IBOC right now are already aware of XM and Sirius and have been for a long time, and it's a pretty small number of people who are aware of IBOC. Another reason is because your existing radio will get FM stations just fine with or without IBOC. In fact, one of IBOC's selling points is that it doesn't have the definite range most digital signals, especially in Europe, have because it works in conjuction with an analog signal rather than instead of the analog signal. The IBOC signal is simply piggybacked on the analog signal, and that's the way it will continue to be unless and until the government mandates those analog signals sign off or the IBOC signals have become the only signals a significant number of people are tuning into. If your standard cheap radio will get your existing signals just fine (and sound isn't a major issue for most people, at least on FM), why would anyone rush to XM or Sirius simply to avoid buying an HD radio? They won't! Those who don't want to spend the money on HD radios will just buy analog receivers! Also, keep in mind that much of the existing XM and Sirius equipment would be completely useless if radios were digital only. I have 3 satellite receivers (two XM and one Sirius), and all three would be worth as much as paperweights if I had a digital only receiver because they use analog FM transmitters to transmit their programming to my radio! So, you're not going to get any new sound quality or anything of the like by going to XM and Sirius. In fact, I'd say Sirius has the sound quality of cheap internet radio while XM isn't much better. However, I like the variety that is there.

When you look at the product life cycle, what you're seeing with HD radio receivers is pretty much normal. There are actually five stages of the product life cycle. I don't remember their exact names, but you have an introduction phase, a growth phase, a maintenance phase and, finally, the last two phases where the product is purchased by the laggards and phased out into extinction. Depending on who you ask and where you live, HD radio is in either the introduction phase or the growth phase, both of which mean high prices and mixed results. XM and Sirius, by the way, would be in the maintenance phase. It's in the maintenance phase that you start seeing widespread advertising of the product, the majority of product sales and a decline in the price. So, HD radios having tepid sales, high prices and not all of them receiving multiple channels is actually quite normal in this stage of their life cycle. By the way, a friend of mine is the GM of the local NPR affiliate, and he tells me he could get me an HD radio for $250 that would receive multiple channels by the end of the year. The end of the year is only 90 days away. So, we're already getting closer to the price declines on HD radios, though I have yet to have the desire to go out and purchase one, even at half the $500 price you mentioned.
<P ID="edit"><FONT class="small">Edited by Kent on 10/03/05 04:32 AM.</FONT></P>

 

[Les]

> By the way,
> a friend of mine is the GM of the local NPR affiliate, and
> he tells me he could get me an HD radio for $250 that would
> receive multiple channels by the end of the year. The end
> of the year is only 90 days away. So, we're already getting
> closer to the price declines on HD radios, though I have yet
> to have the desire to go out and purchase one, even at half
> the $500 price you mentioned.

Between now and about December 10 expect the prices to remain
firm. If product is selling decently at the present price,
expect that price to hold until December 26th. If sales lag,
look for the bottom to fall out of prices December 11th in
a panic to clear the shelves before the Christmas buying season
is totally gone. In any case, unless the shelves are totally
clear by Christmas eve look for BIG sales on these puppies
immediately after Christmas.

Somehow I feel that "HD radios" are not going to be the "Big
Christmas Gift Item" of 2005.
<P ID="signature">______________
"I am free of all prejudice. I hate everyone equally." --W.C. Fields</P>

 

[Kent]

> Somehow I feel that "HD radios" are not going to be the "Big
> Christmas Gift Item" of 2005.

I would agree. Keep in mind that it's taken at least five years for the sales of digital radios to take off in Europe, and sales are still pretty mediocre there from what I hear. I'm not sure when you'll see the prices decline on HD radios to the point people will jump on them. I know where I live now, you can't buy them in stores period (unless there's a small radio store selling them). A friend of mine went to the local Best Buy to see about HD Radios, and the salesperson said there was no such thing! About the only way you can get them around here is to go to the GM of the NPR station!

 

[nd2023]

> > Somehow I feel that "HD radios" are not going to be the
> "Big
> > Christmas Gift Item" of 2005.
>
> I would agree. Keep in mind that it's taken at least five
> years for the sales of digital radios to take off in Europe,
> and sales are still pretty mediocre there from what I hear.
> I'm not sure when you'll see the prices decline on HD radios
> to the point people will jump on them. I know where I live
> now, you can't buy them in stores period (unless there's a
> small radio store selling them). A friend of mine went to
> the local Best Buy to see about HD Radios, and the
> salesperson said there was no such thing! About the only
> way you can get them around here is to go to the GM of the
> NPR station!
>
If you used to get a station you liked before a local adjacent station put IBOC trash on it, then you may get a satellite radio to keep hearing the type of music you like.<P ID="signature">______________
17-year-old radio geek
Location: Princeton Junction, NJ
AIM: KewlDude471</P>

 

[Rocco]

>> One reason is because the majority of people who are aware of IBOC right now are already aware of XM and Sirius and have been for a long time, and it's a pretty small number of people who are aware of IBOC. <<

==============================================
I'm not talking about NOW, I'm talking about when the average consumer starts hearing about IBOC, say a year or two from now. Then they'll start hearing about Sirius and XM, too..or more likely they had already heard of it but didn't know what it was, or maybe someone will tell them about it in a convesation somewhere, and they'll investigate the satellites at the same time.

Of course, audiophiles and radio people are already aware of Sirius, XM, and IBOC. No one denies that.

And I believe others, such as you admitted yourself was appealing to you, will gravitate to XM and Sirius because of the variety that is there. It's hard to compete with 140 channels with only 2 extras in a market. Also, I have heard a digital-only XM, and it does sound CD-like when compared to the analog conversion models that are quite cheap.

 

[Rocco]

FYI: The $500 was the price someone was offering to sell his for on another message board (he said it was the suggested list price). I'd put the link up, but I think that might be a rule violation.

 

[Rocco]

Someone I know who is in a position to verify what you stated did, indeed, confirm that digital radio sales in Europe are nearly dead with sets "collecting dust on store shelves", as you implied, and manufacturers "jumping off the bandwagon". Any ideas as to why that is? Do they have satellite radio there, too?

 

[jegrant]

> Someone I know who is in a position to verify what you
> stated did, indeed, confirm that digital radio sales in
> Europe are nearly dead with sets "collecting dust on store
> shelves", as you implied, and manufacturers "jumping off the
> bandwagon". Any ideas as to why that is? Do they have
> satellite radio there, too?
>

I don't know the sales figures for digital DAB radios in the EU, but there seems to at least be more awareness and availability of DAB radios there than there is of HD radios here in the USA.
The best part is that the newest DAB radios even allow recording, and those recordings can be saved (in MP3 format, IIRC) to a memory card and moved to a computer for archival or time/place shifting.

Here, with DMCA and RIAA running amok, any digital radio that tried to offer anything beyond a "black box" type of time-shifting function would probably be sued out of existence, because RIAA thinks that transferable compressed HD stream recordings would somehow negate CD buying amongst the public.

They do have satellite radio in the EU, but the only portable type of satellite radio is from XM's global partner WorldSpace. And WS doesn't offer anywhere near the channel count that XM & SIRI do. See worldspace.com for details. It may not be immediately clear, but EU service is provided via the AfriStar satellite. Interestingly, WorldSpace carries NPR & WRN.

 

[Ai4i]

> This is a worry of mine.
>
Why does this worry you?
Don't worry, be happy.
Relax, take your shoes off, have a beer, and enjoy Sirius "Chill" or XM "Audio Visions".
Really, it will help keep you from stressing out.<P ID="signature">______________
Proud 2 B a pioneering satellite radio subs¢riber
Ai4i is always on the trailing edge of technology
______________</P>

 

[Kent]

>> I'm not talking about NOW, I'm talking about when the average consumer starts hearing about IBOC, say a year or two from now. Then they'll start hearing about Sirius and XM, too..or more likely they had already heard of it but didn't know what it was, or maybe someone will tell them about it in a convesation somewhere, and they'll investigate the satellites at the same time. <<

Personally, I'm not worried about it. For one thing, prices will continue to decline as IBOC radios go through the product life cycle. There won't be enough advertising of the units for the general public to be aware of them until the prices get lower in the late growth stage or beginning of the maintenance stage.

>> And I believe others, such as you admitted yourself was appealing to you, will gravitate to XM and Sirius because of the variety that is there. It's hard to compete with 140 channels with only 2 extras in a market. Also, I have heard a digital-only XM, and it does sound CD-like when compared to the analog conversion models that are quite cheap. <<

I'm sure more people will gravitate to XM and Sirius over time simply because it's a growing business. It goes back to the product life cycle. Once again, I'm not overly concerned about it. I've heard the resubscription rate at XM is absolutely abysmal (30-35%) for one reason. Another is that radio has survived so many other challenges and has about as many listeners as it always has. If I were a betting person, I'd bet on radio before I'd bet against it. On a personal note, though I do have XM and Sirius, neither takes much listening time away from local stations, at least right now. I find I listen to XM when I previously didn't listen to radio or when I would normally listen to internet radio.

 

[Kent]

> If you used to get a station you liked before a local
> adjacent station put IBOC trash on it, then you may get a
> satellite radio to keep hearing the type of music you like.

I suspect that will be a miniscule amount of people at best. The average listener doesn't DX stations. The most listenable stations, at least when referring to FM, in a single area should not be affected by IBOC, though there may be exceptions for grandfathered short-spaced stations (WJFK in DC and WWMX in Baltimore have apparently had problems in the past on the edges of the two metro areas). In most cases, however, those stations that will be affected aren't offerring anything that isn't offerred on another nearby station anyway. You may have some disappointed listeners, but I doubt very many of them will turn around and buy satellite because of it. After all, they still won't be able to hear whatever it was they liked about the station they lost.

 

[Kent]

> Someone I know who is in a position to verify what you
> stated did, indeed, confirm that digital radio sales in
> Europe are nearly dead with sets "collecting dust on store
> shelves", as you implied, and manufacturers "jumping off the
> bandwagon". Any ideas as to why that is? Do they have
> satellite radio there, too?

I don't believe Europe has satellite radio, though I can't be 100% sure. I think there are several reasons for digital radio's problems in Europe. Although IBOC certainly has its problems and is, in its present state, inferior to Eureka 147, it does do a couple things right. It tries to minimize change, and it tries to avoid penalizing people who don't upgrade. People, as a whole, dislike change. Having to change everything and go from listening to AM and FM stations to stations in the 200-300 mHz range or, in the case of France and Canada, signals over 1400 mHz is probably too much of a change for most people. Also, you have many different stations on the same frequencies. I can see how it would become hard to find your favorite stations, and radio shouldn't be something I have to work at to enjoy, or at least that's my attitude about it. I suspect another problem with digital radio is that people think "my radio sounds just fine." If that's the case, why migrate to a completely different system? I know in Canada there were also problems covering large cities with frequencies in the gigahertz range. In Toronto, for example, one transmitter will not cover the entire metro. As I understand, stations had to have at least five pods to cover the area, and there were still areas of no coverage. "It sounds great but drops out repeatedly on my commute to work!" isn't exactly a great marketing slogan!