WILL PPM BE A DEATH KNELL TO ANYONE?

[McRadio]

It's over a year away but anyone think any stations, formats, or particular personalities could seriously be hurt when Providence becomes a PPM market? I think people are pretty loyal to their morning shows but you may have some that wake up to one station and have it on in the house, then switch in the car, but with diaries only one of those stations gets mentions. What about the other dayparts or any flips or tweaking that might become necessary?

 

[Numo]

Not sure. Not sure how the system even works. i would assume that they would take potential inaccuracies into account or improve it to reflect the change say when you go into the car and tune something else.

 

[Moonstruck]

PPM does not favor jocks. In some cases they come across as tune-outs so we'll see less personality after morning drive. Pro-FM will probably cut down on the midday chatter and Davey doesn't talk much anyway. It'll be interesting to see how the birdfeed staffs do, especially Seacrest. If PPM shows poorer numbers during the latter parts of morning drive you'll see some changes in how those shows are done. I think Hot 106 will do poorly and PPM may just be what does Geoff Charles in. I haven't listened enough to know if he still talks on and on and on and I'm sure his long time fans want to hear that but no one new is ever gonna discover him. I'd almost say he would react negatively to being told to play the music and hold down the talk but it's so obvious he hates big business anyway and yet he stays there because it's what he does. If he does poorly in the PPM maybe he'll finally get back to talk radio.

 

[alvincater]

PPM will tell us the REAL numbers..

 

[QuohogDels]

Looking at data from other PPM markets:

FM:

92ProFM: Will fare pretty well - top 5 more or less. Middays will out perform mornings or afternoons. CHRs tend to do pretty well in the PPM world
93.3 Coast-FM: Top 10... Maybe 7 or 8. Hot ACs don't do as well as CHRs in PPM.
94.1 HJY: This one will alternate with ProFM for who's wins between the two from book to book.
95.5 WBRU: Somewhere between 6 and 10th place - Alt Rockers don't do much due to the issue Arbitron has with cell phones. It's really a sample issue, not a station one.
97.3: Will take a hit
98.1 WCTK: Country seems to take a small drop when markets move from diary to PPM. Probably 6th.
100.3: Will also take a hit... Look for the Spanish language stations to raise holy hell, just like they do in every market that goes PPM.
B101: Bird-fed or not, I project B to be top 5. 4th maybe?
103.7 WEEI: Will do well in it's demo M25-54... Overall... 7 or 8... trading places once in awhile with Coast.
LiteRock105: # 1 or 2... AC kills in PPM... then again, it did real well in diary too.
106.3: Low top 10... 9th or 10th.

AMs:

630 WPRO/99.7FM: 2nd or 3rd. Depetro will do well. AM drive in general will do well, the traffic on the 6s screams appt. listening... A PPM plus. Buddy will take a hit. Yorke may take one too, since his show is a bit inside at times. Matt'll take #1 at night... doing battle with Art Spencer across the hall for air supremacy...

920 WHJJ: Low top 10... Helen will do well. Rush will do well. Beck and Hannity will barely move the needle.

This is just initial predictions... look for changes in music and presentation as the data truly starts to flow. Also, none of us will ever see the numbers. They will remain embargoed. This is my prediction... Too bad I'll never know if I'm right.

 

[Skynet74]

Pro-FM will always do well. Same with the AM side. They are the go to stations in this market. People grew up with them and people love them. I don't see that changing anytime soon. But with that being said, it's very possible that the PPM will cause some surprises. I think it was in Los Angeles where there was a top 10 station. First ratings after PPM the station went down to something like #26. Don't know if it was a fluke or not, but things may get interesting.

 

[jeffryan]

I can attest to the fact that any PD in a PPM market knows that the jocks need to keep it REALLY tight. On a music show, any break that goes longer than 30 seconds in a PPM environment is a no-no. Short and to the point. On and gone. But relevence is still important.

PPM will indeed give more accurate info as to what stations are being listened to and when. However, that being said, if you hold a PPM meter and are trapped in a car where your wife is listening to something you normally wouldn't, it still gets counted. That's why your cume will practically double or triple under PPM... unfortunately, they're not P1s or even P2s. So while it's more accurate, it still isn't perfect.

You'll see some surprises when the first PPM book is released. Every market does. I see B101 doing VERY well under PPM. Pro-FM, not so much. I base that on what I see in other PPM markets. Heritage is good for diary recall, but diary recall is a thing of the past with PPM. Classic rock/hits and alternative formats are usually PPM winners. But we shall see.

 

[Holland Cooke]

This is "conclusive"

Got a GREAT research briefing yesterday, from someone who's crunching PPM numbers in every market where PPM is deployed.

In-a-nutshell: CONCLUSIVE evidence that it's REAL dangerous to over-estimate listeners' attention.
Cut-to-the-chase.

As the research guy put it: with diaries, listeners "used to have to LOVE ya. Now they have to find you INTERESTING."

 

[wknd92]

I can attest to the fact that any PD in a PPM market knows that the jocks need to keep it REALLY tight. On a music show, any break that goes longer than 30 seconds in a PPM environment is a no-no. Short and to the point. On and gone. But relevence is still important.

PPM will indeed give more accurate info as to what stations are being listened to and when. However, that being said, if you hold a PPM meter and are trapped in a car where your wife is listening to something you normally wouldn't, it still gets counted. That's why your cume will practically double or triple under PPM... unfortunately, they're not P1s or even P2s. So while it's more accurate, it still isn't perfect.

You'll see some surprises when the first PPM book is released. Every market does. I see B101 doing VERY well under PPM. Pro-FM, not so much. I base that on what I see in other PPM markets. Heritage is good for diary recall, but diary recall is a thing of the past with PPM. Classic rock/hits and alternative formats are usually PPM winners. But we shall see.

Jeff, I think in some markets that may be true; but looking at Boston w/ WBZ & Kiss 108, HTZ in NY, KCBS in SF, KIIS in LA GN in Chicago (I think we can all agree are heritage stations), there are plenty of examples of heritage stations doing well in both diary and PPM. What I think people are realizing is what Holland just pointed out-you've got to be interesting and concise. From what I hear...Matty's numbers in Boston are doing as well as they have been for a long time, truly reflecting that those that get it also get the listeners

 

[Holland Cooke]

Another sound bite from the research guy...

"Know why people come to your radio station, and when they come, DELIVER."

He says "eliminate ALL clutter, except commercials;" meaning the blah-blah-blah.
Show prep, succinct topic set, frequent re-set, screeners-rehearsing-callers.
Fundamentals matters A LOT.
Rambling, musing = tune-out.

NOTHING HAS CHANGED.
Listeners don't listen differently.
They're just being measured better.
They're no longer "voting for favorites."
We can SEE how quickly they wander, and that diaries have "rounded-up."

 

[Skynet74]

Re: Another sound bite from the research guy...

In a perfect fantasy world, all radios would be able to transmit to Arbitron in real time what station the radio is tuned in to. To take it a step further, how awsome would it be for your radio to have a digital display of how many other radios are tuned into that same station that you are tuned listening to. Even radio talk show hosts could use this real time data to see if people are tuning in (or) tuning out during certain topics of conversation. Talk about a useful tool if it did indeed exist. But like I said...... just a fantasy at this point. Maybe in 100 years something like this will exist when we are no longer here to see it.

 

[Holland Cooke]

Why advertisers like the Internet

In a perfect fantasy world, all radios would be able to transmit to Arbitron in real time what station the radio is tuned in to. To take it a step further, how awsome would it be for your radio to have a digital display of how many other radios are tuned into that same station that you are tuned listening to.

Internet server stats do that now.

In October, I spoke at a college radio convention in Boston, at Simmons College.
They'd just built the radio station.
I betrayed my age when I asked the logical question, "Where is this [on the FM dial]?"
I got a blank stare, and the reply, "on the Internet."

When I was in college, we waited our turn for an hour or two on the transmitter, on-at-a-time.
Today, it's a multiplex, with a menu of programming, some live, most archived.
One student was speaking Portuguese playing music off a thumb drive that she'd brought back from Brazil.
A big flat-screen monitor displayed a map of the world, with "acne" all over it.
Each of those red dots was an IP address streamed-into something-coming-out-of that studio.

(Anonymous poster here, be advised. Radio-info.com knows your IP address.)
(That's how they can bust you if you have multiple nicknames.)

Ratings are estimates. Server stats are "actuals."

 

[jeffryan]

Re: This is "conclusive"

Cut-to-the-chase.

On and gone. Cut to the chase.

Different consultant, same message.

 

[jeffryan]

Re: Why advertisers like the Internet

In October, I spoke at a college radio convention in Boston, at Simmons College.
They'd just built the radio station.
I betrayed my age when I asked the logical question, "Where is this [on the FM dial]?"
I got a blank stare, and the reply, "on the Internet."

When I was in college, we waited our turn for an hour or two on the transmitter, on-at-a-time.
Today, it's a multiplex, with a menu of programming, some live, most archived.
One student was speaking Portuguese playing music off a thumb drive that she'd brought back from Brazil.
A big flat-screen monitor displayed a map of the world, with "acne" all over it.
Each of those red dots was an IP address streamed-into something-coming-out-of that studio.

Makes you wonder why they even need to go to the college "radio station". Most students can simply build their own.

 

[Holland Cooke]

Or...for that matter...

Substitute "commercial" for "college" in that sentence.

Listeners are already making-their-own "radio," via iPod.