Will PPM cause weaker rimshots to go dark?

[Nu_Roo_2]

On another thread (“WNCI - Florentino - Feel Free to advise!”) I predicted that the PPM would probably lead to some of the rimmiest rimshots going dark (e.g., Wink, WODB, WVKO-FM).  The reasoning is that relative to the diary the PPM favors cume over AQH.  And the more signal-challenged a station is, the more reliant it tends to be on AQH instead, as poor signal coverage greatly limits cume potential.  New media would also add to the pressure.

Some replied that the notion of some signals going dark was absurd.

It turns out that just shortly after I made the go-dark prediction, the Dispatch had a (surprisingly detailed) article about the PPM coming to Columbus, in which Radio-Info's Sean Ross made a similar prediction:

"...there could be fewer stations down the road."

Of course it’s possible we’ll both be proven wrong, but I bet we’re proven right.  May take a few years though (which is a quick pace by Columbus radio standards).

BTW, since PPM is friendly to rock, Ross also said, "I think Columbus is probably going to have one or two rock stations in a year."  I'm guessing he was misquoted and actually said "...one or two MORE rock stations..."

He also said that the PPM "doesn't like when there are four of anything."  Man, I hope that one's right so we can lose some country's!!!!

Would like to hear any comments on this issue, or any other PPM-related issues.  As I mentioned, there was already a bit of discussion in the other thread.

http://www.dispatch.com/live/conten.../13/why-radios-changing-its-tune.html?sid=101

 

[Nu_Roo_2]

BTW, since PPM is friendly to rock, Ross also said, "I think Columbus is probably going to have one or two rock stations in a year."  I'm guessing he was misquoted and actually said "...one or two MORE rock stations..."

Oooooopps...just realized that probably was NOT a misquote.  He was saying there would be a *reduction* in the number of rock stations to 1 or 2.  In fact, the full quote was, "The PPM "doesn't like when there are four of anything," Ross said. "So I think Columbus is probably going to have one or two rock stations in a year." ( I think I was thrown off by the fact that he had also cited rock as an example of a format the PPM likes.) Country would have been the best pare-back example, of course, but he probably has no conception of how flooded with country Columbus is.

 

[wilson1000]

Again....The stations will not go dark. You're an educated man making statements that don't make sense. Maybe in a 500 yeard they'll be dark, but...not after the PPM. Sorry. They may/could change hands...but they're not going dark anytime soon.

Thank you.

 

[Nightpattern]

Well, not everyone sells by ratings. For years now, stations that have been signal challenged have sold themselves a number of ways; by geography served, by specialized audience demos, by brokered shows or by local sports programming. What you will probably see is these stations becoming more narrow in approach to emphasize that difference. Of course, if they're the weaker sisters of a larger group, they'll probably just continue on as usual...being used to help "bring the buy in."

Don't be surprised to see some of the smaller stations actually benefit a little. Some of these guys that aren't top of mind in recall are probably getting more listening
than currently perceived

Make no mistake about it though. The separation between the first and second tier stations will grow a bit wider. But by the same token, the actual separations between the first tier (NCI, TVN, COL, SNY, LVQ) will narrow too. You'll find there is a lot more sharing between big signal stations and the leaders won't be so clear cut anymore.

But...a piece of the audio spectrum is always valuable. Like they say about land..."they're not making any more of it."

 

[lovejamminoldies]

No stations will go dark, but we will see some format flips and programming changes. PPM does well with format flips. Look at 92.3 NOW NYC and AMP Radio Detroit.

 

[Nu_Roo_2]

Again....The stations will not go dark. You're an educated man making statements that don't make sense. Maybe in a 500 yeard they'll be dark, but...not after the PPM. Sorry. They may/could change hands...but they're not going dark anytime soon.

Thank you.

You're welcome. BTW, the notion of some stations going dark due to a one-two whammy of the PPM and new media (maybe with an extra nudge from the economy) wasn't an original idea on my part. I've heard several respected longtime radio people suggest the possibility. Doesn't mean their prediction is right, of course. Thank you.

 

[Nu_Roo_2]

No stations will go dark, but we will see some format flips and programming changes. PPM does well with format flips. Look at 92.3 NOW NYC and AMP Radio Detroit.

But those flips were designed specifically to play to the PPM's format "preferences," which include CHR. If someone flips to smooth jazz, I don't think the PPM is going to "do well with it."

 

[Nu_Roo_2]

Well, not everyone sells by ratings.  For years now, stations that have been signal challenged have sold themselves a number of ways; by geography served, by specialized audience demos, by brokered shows or by local sports programming.  What you will probably see is these stations becoming more narrow in approach to emphasize that difference.  Of course, if they're the weaker sisters of a larger group, they'll probably just continue on as usual...being used to help "bring the buy in." 

Don't be surprised to see some of the smaller stations actually benefit a little.  Some of these guys that aren't top of mind in recall are probably getting more listening
than currently perceived

Make no mistake about it though.  The separation between the first and second tier stations will grow a bit wider.  But by the same token, the actual separations between the first tier (NCI, TVN, COL, SNY, LVQ) will narrow too.  You'll find there is a lot more sharing between big signal stations and the leaders won't be so clear cut anymore.

But...a piece of the audio spectrum is always valuable.  Like they say about land..."they're not making any more of it."

Really interesting observations.  Do you think that narrowness you referred to could include a rimshot serving its city of license and environs instead of continuing to position itself as a "Columbus" station?

 

[BMR]

The reasoning is that relative to the diary the PPM favors cume over AQH. And the more signal-challenged a station is, the more reliant it tends to be on AQH instead, as poor signal coverage greatly limits cume potential.

(ignorant Brit alert)

What are 'Cume' and 'AQH'?

 

[Allfirdup]

The reasoning is that relative to the diary the PPM favors cume over AQH. And the more signal-challenged a station is, the more reliant it tends to be on AQH instead, as poor signal coverage greatly limits cume potential.

(ignorant Brit alert)

What are 'Cume' and 'AQH'?

Cume is the total number of listeners and AQH is the percentage of total audience that is listening in the average quarter hour period, PPM numbers are give both ways

 

[BMR]

The reasoning is that relative to the diary the PPM favors cume over AQH. And the more signal-challenged a station is, the more reliant it tends to be on AQH instead, as poor signal coverage greatly limits cume potential.

(ignorant Brit alert)

What are 'Cume' and 'AQH'?

Cume is the total number of listeners and AQH is the percentage of total audience that is listening in the average quarter hour period, PPM numbers are give both ways

Thanks. So basically 'reach' and 'share' then?

 

[Nu_Roo_2]

The reasoning is that relative to the diary the PPM favors cume over AQH.  And the more signal-challenged a station is, the more reliant it tends to be on AQH instead, as poor signal coverage greatly limits cume potential. 

(ignorant Brit alert)

What are 'Cume' and 'AQH'?

Cume is the total number of listeners  and  AQH is the percentage of total audience that is listening in the average quarter hour period, PPM numbers are give both ways

Thanks. So basically 'reach' and 'share' then?

Oops, I kind of screwed things up by saying the PPM favors cume over AQH.   What I really meant was that the PPM favors cume over TSL.  Sorry, and let me explain:

AQH is actually the bottom-line "total volume of listening" measure (average number of clock quarter-hours during which station listening occurred for at least five minutes).  But this is typically expressed as an AQH share:  the total AQH's for a station during whatever time period you're analyzing, divided by the total AQH's market-wide during that time period.  AQH share is what's typically reported as "radio ratings."

The underlying factors influencing AQH are (1) cume (total number of people listening to the station in a week -- which can also be expressed as a % of market persons 6+); and (2) time spent listening per listener, aka TSL.  So it's really Cume vs. TSL that's most analagous to Reach vs. Frequency. Relative to the diary, reach is more important than frequency in earning a high market share (AQH share) with PPM.

 

[Nightpattern]

"Really interesting observations. Do you think that narrowness you referred to could include a rimshot serving its city of license and environs instead of continuing to position itself as a "Columbus" station?"


Hard to say...will depend on the ownership, debt service and their own goals. But it isn't inconceivable that some of the smaller signals could go back to serving their true community (or county) of license. Much like how the Newark stations have been run for years.

 

[lovejamminoldies]

This is Columbus so most likely we won't see big changes anyway.

 

[imadethisusernamemyslef]

Should be interesting to see what stations will switch formats a year from now, if any.

The rock stations that will probably be the ones to go away, Radio 106.7 and The Brew. They just don't have a chance against The Blitz and Qfm.

 

[radiogeek07]

Should be interesting to see what stations will switch formats a year from now, if any.

The rock stations that will probably be the ones to go away, Radio 106.7 and The Brew. They just don't have a chance against The Blitz and Qfm.

Radio definitely, but will the Bru just kind of continue to morph into a not necessarily "rock" format? I mean, it already has.
And let's be honest, we know eventually WTVN will be symolcast on FM, so the Clear Channel line up could look something like...
92.3 WCOL
93.3 WTVNFM?
97.9 WNCI
Soft Rock 105.7?
and Radio 106.7, or something that will keep the male demos for Clear Channel.
Remember, they need a place to clear Browns broadcasts, and I say that because there is no way in Hell Clear Channel will hand that off to "The Fan" or a competing radio cluster.

 

[Les Izmore]

I'd suspect some things will begin to shake out next week when the OAB hosts an Arbitron breakfast. It will be the first peek at initial cume numbers for PPM in Columbus. The have and have nots will start to appear. Give credit to CC for making their stations PPM friendly.

It will be interesting to see how two of their big dogs (WTVN and WCOL) show up in PPM.

WNCI will be huge. The cume will be scary big.

I predict the rich will get richer and the rimshots irrelevant. Too few meters to form any consistency over time with the weak signals.

My $.02.

 

[lovejamminoldies]

We know WNCI will be huge. I'm interested to see how Power 1075 and the rock stations play out. Urban and Rock do not do well with PPM.

 

[Nu_Roo_2]

BTW, rock seems to hold its own in some PPM markets. In Kansas City an active rock station is #1 12+ and a classic rocker is #2. Sacramento's #1 is likewise an active rocker.

 

[Rusty Muck]

The premise of the thread... causing rimshots to "go dark," i.e. sign off for good, I just can't see happening. Not for a long time, at least.

At the very worst, stations like those could become repeaters or simulcasts of bigger metro signals. Look at how Bonneville now relays WTOP-FM in Washington, DC, on not just one, but two rimshots in Frederick, MA and Manassas, VA. And that's with the primary Washington signal having one of the best commercial FM signals in that entire market.

But a situation that could cause a station to go dark... that would have more to do with a station's financial bearings than ratings, if anything. After all, WVKO did fairly well in the ratings under their liberal talk format, but the format lost out due to other circumstances.

Then... there's 104.3, which if it drops "B," would be far better off going back to being a simulcast for 103.5, whatever format it holds. I have no earthly idea why Saga split that off from relaying 103.5 in the first place - even though the radio-locator signal maps are for entertainment purposes only, 104.3's signal just looks awful and doesn't come close to reaching Columbus.