Will there BE Listeners?

[oldnewbie]

I hope this is not considered a rude question. I can't help but wonder ...

Watching the devistation on TV makes me wonder ... how long will it be before there are any listeners in New Orleans? What will this do to the Radio Business?

Are there stations damaged and off the air that will just stay that way permanently? Will the economics be there to rebuild, especially, for example, a small AM?

Opinions?

 

[SML]

> I hope this is not considered a rude question. I can't help
> but wonder ...
>
> Watching the devistation on TV makes me wonder ... how long
> will it be before there are any listeners in New Orleans?
> What will this do to the Radio Business?
>
> Are there stations damaged and off the air that will just
> stay that way permanently? Will the economics be there to
> rebuild, especially, for example, a small AM?
>
> Opinions?
>

Since this has never happened before, it will be a new experience. There is little audience left in town, and not much in the way of retail business will be advertising for a while. So the lack of listeners and income may prove rough for the business. WWL will be there, but it too will be hard pressed to pay the bills for a while.

 

[timbuc2]

> > I hope this is not considered a rude question. I can't
> help
> > but wonder ...
> >
> > Watching the devistation on TV makes me wonder ... how
> long
> > will it be before there are any listeners in New Orleans?
>
> > What will this do to the Radio Business?
> >
> > Are there stations damaged and off the air that will just
> > stay that way permanently? Will the economics be there to
>
> > rebuild, especially, for example, a small AM?
> >
> > Opinions?
> >
>
> Since this has never happened before, it will be a new
> experience. There is little audience left in town, and not
> much in the way of retail business will be advertising for a
> while. So the lack of listeners and income may prove rough
> for the business. WWL will be there, but it too will be hard
> pressed to pay the bills for a while.
>
Besides wondering how many stations are going to stay off the air, you also have to ask how many will GO off the air. It's going to be a long time before people can move back into the area. And when that time comes, how many people are going to come back?

Let's just look at New Orleans. 80% of the city is underwater. Or at least was under water for a week. Officials are saying it could take up to 80 days to drain all the water. Then you have to decontaminate the city. Then you have to clean up all the debris. Then you have to rebuild. So we're talking, what, a good year before a very large chunk of the population can comeback in. Heck, a year is probably on the low end of the spectrum. As far as rebuilding goes, I wouldn't be surprised to see that at least 1 out of every 3 buildings is no longer structurally sound. It could even be about 1/2. Again, I havent't mentioned the surrounding area. So the question becomes, how many adverisers and listeners have those stations perminatley lost? Or at least have lost for the next couple years. As it was said in a post late last week, it could a few years before New Orleans is a top 50 market again, maybe even a top 100 market.

I'm not from the area and not in the radio business, but just by watching TV I'd say it's going to be a rough few years for stations in the area. Hopefully I'm wrong.

 

[RFLA]

> > > I hope this is not considered a rude question. I can't
> > help
> > > but wonder ...
> > >
> > > Watching the devistation on TV makes me wonder ... how
> > long
> > > will it be before there are any listeners in New
> Orleans?
> >
> > > What will this do to the Radio Business?
> > >
> > > Are there stations damaged and off the air that will
> just
> > > stay that way permanently? Will the economics be there
> to
> >
> > > rebuild, especially, for example, a small AM?
> > >
> > > Opinions?


I'm from the area and would like to educate everyone on something first....

New Orleans only resides in Orleans parish, they are basically blocked from expanding except into the swamp on the North East corner of the city (heard in the media as New Orleans East)

Right next to New Orleans on it's west and south sides is about 5 or 6 cities making up Jefferson Parish. Jefferson parish has only roughly 30,000 less residents than Orleans parish had in the last census (roughly 454,000 people)

Jefferson parish for the most part has dried out and are allowing residents in to grab belongings but all services are expected back up and running within a month or two..give the couple of months to rebuild (as it was minor flooding there compared to Orleans and St.Benard parish) and look for Jefferson parish to be kicking within the year... not the same as before but like the Florida Gulf Coast is now from Ivan from Last year. (Plus a section of New Orleans called Algiers on the west bank from the quarter was damged as much as Jefferson parish, and could have things there back to normal in about a year.Estimates are about 30,000 residents live on the Orleans parish westbank)

I said that cause the New Orleans market is made up of more than just New Orleans itself, and the people coming back and the ones who made it thru on the left side of the city (in the parishes that line the Mississippi River between Baton Rouge and New Orleans where unlike other cities are well populated also,espcially with people with high incomes)and will need entertainment and information as well as ads... Look for rates to go down, look for the sales people to work harder and travel furthur than normal to get that sale but I think there is enough to support the stations..not as a top 50 market but at least as a 100 or so..... that's my personal thought.... Now if this had happened elsewhere, the dire predictions I think would be more realistic

But anyhow, Look for the market to rebuild on the FM side...depending upon the damage at 88.3 (reading for the blind) or WWOZ (90.7) if they will be back or not (as both run on razor thin margins). as well as KNOU 104.5 who's company is in bankruptcy and may dump the license for cheap.

On AM, I say look at some of the local owners to scrap to get their stations back up but insurance will take care of most of it... The biggest ones I see is the am releigious broadcasters who may have problems in coming back depending upon how fine line they kept the budget and coverage on insurance.


Next subject....
A lot of them say they aren't coming back... there is a little known fact that Human resource people in major companies know, and that's people from the New Orleans area (actually Louisiana in general but more seen in people of South Louisiana) are the some of the most resistant to relocate.

Another thing is, depending upon the home and what it was built with, if it will be destroyed or not.... A lot of the older homes were built with Cypress that is very resistant to Rot (It actually goes in watery areas like swamps) and these have been rebuilt over and over again from floods.. The biggest complainers may be FEMA and insureres who would want the houses on pilings if rebuilt.
But I think some are just under stress and will probably change their mind... The people you may see go is people who start a better life in another place (which the stories on like Dateline NBC are showing ain't promising right now) and some of the others but the max exodus? nah the region will probably loose at wildest guess max about 100-150,000 but they will be replaced by others wanting into the city (possibly a movement in the city from African American to Hispanic from coastal areas who are used to the problems associated with living in a coastal area).

And a Thought for those of you on here.... The water is what actually did New Orleans in this go around... But what about if the next Category 4 or 5 hit like Houston? I think after this disaster, cities are now realizing they have to have some max exodus doomsday plan on hand somewheres cause they can be next.

RFLA

 

[timbuc2]

Thanks for the insight from a local point of view.<P ID="signature">______________
"You can't be tippy toeing, up in here, wooooooo!"
Terry Tate - office linebacker (greatest commercials ever, from 2003)</P>

 

[DeadElvis]

> Right next to New Orleans on it's west and south sides is
> about 5 or 6 cities making up Jefferson Parish. Jefferson
> parish has only roughly 30,000 less residents than Orleans
> parish had in the last census (roughly 454,000 people)

Your point is well-taken. As a Tulane grad, I know the City, as you do, and understand how things are laid out.

But, the big question mark about Jefferson is related to how Jefferson relates to Orleans Parish. Most folks in Jefferson have their lives intimately intertwined with their neighbor to the east. They either work in the City, or their have businesses that rely on New Orleans in some fundamental way. How much the abandonment of the City will impact that is anyone's guess. I am sure urban planners are working on it right now.

In any event, if you work in New Orleans radio, that remote you had scheduled at the car dealer in October is probably off.

> And a Thought for those of you on here.... The water is what
> actually did New Orleans in this go around... But what about
> if the next Category 4 or 5 hit like Houston? I think after
> this disaster, cities are now realizing they have to have
> some max exodus doomsday plan on hand somewheres cause they
> can be next.

I am not sure Houston is analogous. Houston is above sea level and a bit inland, so the water issue won't pop up like it did in New Orleans (which does not mean a 4 or 5 wouldn't be horrible, just not as horrible). But, bad things can happen, as we have seen, and cities -- like mine -- are re-engaging their disaster plans. That, as Martha would say, is a good thing.

DE

 

[RFLA]

> > Right next to New Orleans on it's west and south sides is
> > about 5 or 6 cities making up Jefferson Parish. Jefferson
> > parish has only roughly 30,000 less residents than Orleans
>
> > parish had in the last census (roughly 454,000 people)
>
> Your point is well-taken. As a Tulane grad, I know the
> City, as you do, and understand how things are laid out.

Living in the communities along the bayous in the lafourche/Terreboone parish area, we have to know New Orleans real well



>
> But, the big question mark about Jefferson is related to how
> Jefferson relates to Orleans Parish. Most folks in
> Jefferson have their lives intimately intertwined with their
> neighbor to the east. They either work in the City, or
> their have businesses that rely on New Orleans in some
> fundamental way. How much the abandonment of the City will
> impact that is anyone's guess. I am sure urban planners are
> working on it right now.

I can see your point and yeah there will have people who will have to find other work possibly (like those in the shipyards and tourist industry for just 2 examples)..Others could possibly find work but would have commutes possibly to Baton Rouge to work for CBD companies in the interim... But I know of people who were doing the reverse before (living in BR but commuting to New orleans)... I'm not gonna lie, it's gonna be hell, But I think Jefferson has the resources and stuff to make a go as a small city if they have to (Considering Metarie is the 3rd largest unincorporated city in the US, Kenner had roughly 70,000 residents) but in my opinion it's not like we blew up Memphis or Jackson where everything totally is based on the main city IMO and the burbs feed off the main city... Jefferson did a lot of feeding off of New Orleans, that is a given.. But there was enough there that technically it conditions were right, they could possible seperate from Orleans and make a go at it (hypothetically before the storm IMO but now a possible plan)



>
> In any event, if you work in New Orleans radio, that remote
> you had scheduled at the car dealer in October is probably
> off.

Depending upon what happens with NOLA radio, possibility (depending how long they take to reset up and go again).. As I said in the post, we have to feed media to those elsewhere outside of Greater New Orleans... Our area (Houma/Thibodaux as well as Baton Rouge) is actually gearing up for refugees to buy cars,houses etc... and we may within the year, have NOLA radio coming to Houma to do a remote.. (BUT before the storm, certain stations in New Orleans actually DID remotes in Houma/Thibodaux ..Namely the 2 broadcasting from Vacherie (WDVW 92.3/KHEV 104.1 which are on a 2000 foot tower in Vacherie and comes in gang busters here) and WWL radio which did remotes all over (including a appearance by Buddy D and his radio show coming Live in 2004? from a Thibodaux car dealer)



>
> > And a Thought for those of you on here.... The water is
> what
> > actually did New Orleans in this go around... But what
> about
> > if the next Category 4 or 5 hit like Houston? I think
> after
> > this disaster, cities are now realizing they have to have
> > some max exodus doomsday plan on hand somewheres cause
> they
> > can be next.
>
> I am not sure Houston is analogous. Houston is above sea
> level and a bit inland, so the water issue won't pop up like
> it did in New Orleans (which does not mean a 4 or 5 wouldn't
> be horrible, just not as horrible). But, bad things can
> happen, as we have seen, and cities -- like mine -- are
> re-engaging their disaster plans. That, as Martha would
> say, is a good thing.


I know Houston won't have the water distruction as New Orleans has (cities like New York, Boston,and Miami would hit my list).. But people are shocked we didn't have a real good plan even though we knew the big one would come and talked about it for years.. The plan was basically done, but now we know it happened and everyone can learn from it.

I mean, I didn't realize that Memphis had to worry about Earthquake faults (even though New Madrid is about 100-150 miles away) until you see it on the hotel warnings in Memphis hotel rooms... Now imagine what would happen if a earthquake would rock New Madrid and in turn nail Memphis which is bigger than New Orleans (in the heart of the city)? (I use Memphis as I know that's where you are near DE and is a city that some wouldn't expect to see destroyed. Does Memphis have a plan to evacuate everyone out of the city completely within a 48 hour window? (time alloted to New Orleans usually for storms that enter the Gulf).. It has been said, it would take 5 full days to evacuate everyone from New Orleans for a Category 5 (and this was in the media..Times Picayune series about the perfect storm that described the lake swamping the city like it did (but the paper never counted on the storm passing on the east of the city ..usually it was a direct hit)

People don't realize the oh God factor till it hits the fan sometimes...

I do know the Congressman from Illinois would change his tune, if we were talking about Chicago and not New Orleans...

and Timbuc 2, that's one of the reasons I'm on here for... people don't realize that people in the general area here have rebuilt so many times that sometimes it's second nature anymore (and a lot of times used to seeing delays in getting outpouring).... Look at the Mississippi Gulf Coast, It was wiped out in 1969 with Camille, now 2005 with Katrina ..and guess what... in 2006 it will be just like Mobile/Pensacola is today after 2 category 5s hit the area... (s*** happens, here we go again rebuilding)

RFLA