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Winter trends II - GSP

A

awp69

Well, here they are: http://ratings.****************/cgi-bin/rol.exe/arb191

I kind of wonder how accurate "trends" are compared to the actual books. MY and the two country staitons went up, both X and Chuck went down a bit (little disappointing to see more so for X since Chuck is still at a 2 share). But Hot 98.1 went up a whopping 1.2 shares just in the second part of the Winter? ???

I don't know. Guess we'll see how things shake out when the full book comes out. But thought I'd share 'em.
 
Hot has always been one of the strangest, most volatile stations in the market. I have no idea why.

MY is up, but still below what they were getting at first after the "fresh" switch and significantly below their AC numbers.

Maybe listeners are getting tired of Chuck FM. I don't listen that often but the presentation seems like it could get old after a while, I don't know. I expect Earth to take a little off of them. X is the one that is a bit more concerning of all of these stations. Since it is just a trend, hopefully their full book will look better.
 
carolinaradio said:
X is the one that is a bit more concerning of all of these stations.  Since it is just a trend, hopefully their full book will look better.
Click to expand...

Only a slight drop, but was hoping they'd be on the upswing - not the other way around. As long as they're making money in their target demo and stay on the air, I'll be happy. But I do hope the full book shows an improvement.

While X is still my first stop, I've actually been listening to Chuck a little more that I was for a while -- hearing, ironically, a lot of those '90s alt songs we've been wanting on X. Lots of R.E.M. and even heard Love & Rockets on Chuck, which seemed a little weird when X had added them to their playlist around the same time.
 
As stated before: Current alternative = CHR2. And no one wants that!

G
 
TRENDS: It has been my experience that "Trends" are kinda/sorta an Arb sales tool...just to get you interested in buying their service. Trends..."Report Cards"...have a higher margin of error than the actual book, and Heck,...it too has a margin. Years ago, they had a 40-43% return of the sent diaries. I do not know how they do it now, but as long as Agencies need a road map to place their buys, it'll be available. Too early for EARTH, but they have provided a peek at some of the others. Formats that air mostly new product are going to do well, as long as they have someone on the air (Ushering)talking about it. Take a look at all the hype over Justin Timberlakes new album. It's been seven years....TO ME, WE COULD HAVE WAITED MUCH LONGER! Apparently that "Howdy Doody" face of his didn't fair well in the acting world. Jessica Beal had to hop outta bed long enough to let Clear Channel hop in,...with more product hype than...Justin Bieber for Lee Press-on Chest Hairs! A year from now there might still be some talk about the JT release, but watch, and see how many CC stations are still granting airpaly.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm?
 
upstate29651 said:
As stated before: Current alternative = CHR2. And no one wants that!

G
Click to expand...

Not going to get into this again, but have you listened to X98.5? Yes, there's been crossovers like Fun. and Mumford & Sons, but I'd say at least 80-90% of what they play would never be played on CHR. And again, there's always been crossover to CHR going all the way back to grunge.
 
I'll say it once more for those that haven't taken an Arbitron presentation: Trends are unweighed monthlies. They fluctuate some by diary placement and by return rate. In the book, they take all of the data and then weight it to accommodate the demographic fluctuations in the returned diaries. In other words, if they get less or more (most likely less) of diaries back from a certain demographic, they will give those diaries more or less weight so that the reported listening more closely represents the market's make-up.

The trends and the book are statistically reliable and reproducable, although the trends might not most accurately represent what is going on in the market. The "Book" will.
 
well said dude but can arbitron apply weights to the song by song defragmentation of formats that are represented in the market. it is razor edged science here. ;)
 
PPM is supposed to allow minute by minute tracking in aggregate of over the air stations, so in short, yes. But it's a passive device and the sample rates are still small.
 
DudeFan said:
I'll say it once more for those that haven't taken an Arbitron presentation: Trends are unweighed monthlies. They fluctuate some by diary placement and by return rate. In the book, they take all of the data and then weight it to accommodate the demographic fluctuations in the returned diaries. In other words, if they get less or more (most likely less) of diaries back from a certain demographic, they will give those diaries more or less weight so that the reported listening more closely represents the market's make-up.

The trends and the book are statistically reliable and reproducable, although the trends might not most accurately represent what is going on in the market. The "Book" will.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the explaination DudeFan. I'm a music and radio follower, but will readily admit that there's a lot of industry stuff that I don't get. Still a little fussy, but I guess your generally saying that trends are accurate, but weighting can change the picture in the full book.
 
Change the picture some. You generally will see fluctuation trend to trend in stations that are highly demographically focused and limited in appeal.

The more likely you have station programmed to appeal to broader age/ethnic groups, the less volatity you will generally see in the trends.

However, if a couple trends are showing a sinking ship, that may tell you something is drastically wrong...

If you are a casual fan of radio, think of looking at the bigger picture over a bunch or books and trends looking for overall patterns and shifts. Don't take one 12+ trend as gospel. In fact, don't take any 12+ figure other than as a meaure of how broad appeal a station is.

And always keep in mind that these "numbers" are not gospel. They are estimates. Scientifically and mathematically reliable and reproducable estimates but estimates nonetheless. There can be a lot more going on in the street than what Arbitron reveals.
 
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