Wow!! I'm from Texas and when I scanned the SF numbers I was astounded and shocked to see the Wolf so high and doing so well. Entercom runs successful Country stations and that includes SF now! I'm just so "Wow!" I guess the so-called experts were wrong about Country and the Bay Area...it just goes to prove that if you put alot of effort and talent onto a radio station to make it awesome it will swings converts to the format due to the execution of the station and format. DJs make it great too...they added fairly fast and people noticed that this station wanted to win!
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Wolf's Ratings!!
- Thread starter redbullfan
- Start date
redbullfan said:
The station debuted in March with nearly a three share that month. Each month since it has dropped by two-tenths of a share, and is now nearer to a 2 than a 3.
S
sirmusic
Guest
Wow...Eduardo, what are you smoking? I looked a the numbers and they were nowhere NEAR a 3 when they debuted...I see a .9, 1.3, 1.9, 2.2 and today a 2.6...seems to me like they're closer to 3 than 2 my man...and good for them! You sure you lookin' at the San Francisco Wolf?
First Month +.4
Second Month +.6
Third Month +.3
Fourth Month +.4
The fact remains the station is showing slow, but steady growth. Heading for perhaps unchartered territory...Top 10 maybe. I see this station here for several years and and shortterm being a mid-2 to 3 share range station 12+. 25-54 higher...decent biller too.
Second Month +.6
Third Month +.3
Fourth Month +.4
The fact remains the station is showing slow, but steady growth. Heading for perhaps unchartered territory...Top 10 maybe. I see this station here for several years and and shortterm being a mid-2 to 3 share range station 12+. 25-54 higher...decent biller too.
redbullfan said:
Keep in mind country is an adult format for the most part. Like most adult formats it takes TIME to build a loyal audience. Let's hope management has enough sense to leave it be for a few years.
redbullfan said:
I siad "months" and you are citing trends. March was peak, and off 0.2 each month since then, with no growth in any demo. It will be somewhere in the 12th to 15th rank, 25-54 in the long run.
There is no 4th month to look at yet. That would be June and those results won't be known until the book comes out in late July.
You should be looking at 25-54 numbers if you want to get a better idea of how well the Wolf has done so far. They're already a Top 10 station in that demo. Pretty impressive.
You should be looking at 25-54 numbers if you want to get a better idea of how well the Wolf has done so far. They're already a Top 10 station in that demo. Pretty impressive.
S
sirmusic
Guest
Eduardo must be Wolf competition...how does one spin those numbers into "The Wolf is headed downward?" Are you really trying to convince folks that FEWER people are listening to the Wolf now? This station was in the toilet a couple of months ago and all indications are that it's quickly on the upswing, and you're really trying to sell that that station LOSING listeners?? What, are you Clearchannel PD?
sirmusic said:
Because I am using the "actrual" month of March, and the extraps for April and May, not the three month rolling average that is a trend.
In the discreet month of March, the Wolf had its highest 12+ and 25-54 showings. It has, since then, fallen off.
Absolutely. Because the April and May discreets are lower than March. The rolling average showed the staiton go up, as it flushed, progressively, December, then January and now February from the average... the low numbers of the defunct format... and substituted higher Wolf numbers. However, the highest month was March, and it is leveling off after the novelty sampling and binge TSL of the first 30 to 45 days.
Still, much better than the old format...
[/quote]This station was in the toilet a couple of months ago and all indications are that it's quickly on the upswing, and you're really trying to sell that that station LOSING listeners?? What, are you Clearchannel PD?
[/quote]
No, I am someone with X-Trends. Of course, any Arbitron subscriber could caluclate the months with pencil and paper even without a calculator. Extraps are tedious, not difficult... even if none of the wolves here seem to understand them.
SFStatic said:Extraps are a pain by hand...unless you subscribe to one of the services that does them for you with a computer program...Then, it's just a matter of opening an email or logging on to a website.
Actually, X-trends looks for the path that Arbitrends has been set to and reads in the trend data and does the extraps on the fly for all demos against cume, cume share, avg. persons, avg. share, avg. rating, TSL by day and week, etc. and substitutes Maximiser actuals every three months.
I never even open trends in Arbitrend software. I just download, and read it into Xtrends. Since I get 16 markets each month, it makes it a lot easier, as X-Trends (from Cornerstone Research, who have Hook Exchange and Analyst) gives easier to read reports and even can do trending graphs, etc.
Before that, many of us just wrote an Excel sheet that did the same thing, but far more tediously.
David, I'm hearing that even though they are doing better than with the old format, the Bay Area buying community is not embracing country, which was supposedly one of the reasons that previous attempts at the format had failed. Are you hearing anything from inside your company about how country does sales-wise in SF?
Surfdude makes an excellent point. Trends are all over the road for the reasons stated. For instance, April sampling was very heavy South Bay. The next report (3rd month of the Spring Book) will have the usual weighting and sampling adjustments.
Dave, the Wolf's first month was not "close to a 3," it was a 3.7, 25-54, ranking #5, That's the highest debut month I've ever seen for any station, anywhere, at any time. TSL was around 10:30. No commercials and over a million bucks on TV. Country fans were starving for their music and it showed. To expect that to continue is a little out there, bro. However, to speculate the station will be outside the top ten in the long run is a bit unrealistic as well. What we saw with yesterday's results is a station that's on fire. Cume is up over 300,000 now and the station is Top 10, 25-54, after just 3 months on the air. Middays and afternoons (Nikki and JoJo) are leading the charge. Even their brand new morning show debuted at #10.
Whether a Country fan or not, one has to admit these results are very impressive. What gets me excited is a COUNTRY station doing a full blown, high energy CHR, personality driven presentation. To my knowledge, it's the only (Country) station in America doing this.
Duke
Dave, the Wolf's first month was not "close to a 3," it was a 3.7, 25-54, ranking #5, That's the highest debut month I've ever seen for any station, anywhere, at any time. TSL was around 10:30. No commercials and over a million bucks on TV. Country fans were starving for their music and it showed. To expect that to continue is a little out there, bro. However, to speculate the station will be outside the top ten in the long run is a bit unrealistic as well. What we saw with yesterday's results is a station that's on fire. Cume is up over 300,000 now and the station is Top 10, 25-54, after just 3 months on the air. Middays and afternoons (Nikki and JoJo) are leading the charge. Even their brand new morning show debuted at #10.
Whether a Country fan or not, one has to admit these results are very impressive. What gets me excited is a COUNTRY station doing a full blown, high energy CHR, personality driven presentation. To my knowledge, it's the only (Country) station in America doing this.
Duke
surfdude said:
However, if in extraps you see a definite trend, it is an early "warning" that something is happening. In the case of the Wolf, I am not arguing with the fact that this form of country does work in San Francisco, and that the station will do much better than its terribly-forgetable former format. What I am saying is that there was a lot of curiosity cume, binge listening and such as evidenced by the first month to the second and third or even to the average of months two and three. The station will not be a 3.7 25-54 as cited in another post... it will level off, in my opinion, just at or under the 10th position in 25-54 unless they consistently spend big on promotion to push usage by P2s and P3s.
The most interesting thing is that the cume has actually been growing to the point that it is a bit higher in May (extrap, I know) than the average for the old format. The difference is in TSL, which has gone, in 25-54, from 9:00 to 7:15 to 6:30 in the three months; this is the kind of data that shows a "we can see it twice" trend that is believable. The numbers are not wobbling... they are consistently decreasing in TSL and by a factor larger than the cume growth... and that cume growth is probably less passionate-about-country listeners who give it less of their listening time.
Of real significance is the fact that May was significantly undersampled in Hispanics, with 25-54 Spanish shares falling 26% from April. This means that there were more shares for non-Hispanic stations to divide, and Wolf did not grow in TSL or share, but did increase in cume.
Again, the change was a good decision, and gives more diversity to the area on FM. But this is not going to be, consistently, more than a top 10 to top 12 radio station in its target.
Extraps aren't worthless, you can sometimes, as David points out, see a trend. Unfortunately, no matter what program you use, or if you do it by hand, they are flakier than trends, and much flakier than the quarterly #s that are weighted. The big questionmark will be the long term effect of the people meter type device (I hope the Ipsos one gets used, and it doesn't remain all ARB.) Plenty of talk about bigger cume, lower TSL, etc, and how different demos are better or worse, but how well and how fast will the radio community learn to use it to sell more effectively.
A
atwater kent
Guest
So...where are all the pundits now? Wolf manages to beat Max but fails to maintain the impressive March debut numbers. And, as Eduardo has pointed out, the monthly trending is down. Entercom is disappointed. They were hoping for a big splashy entrance into the ring. It is very early in the match, but round one was not a knockout.
cbsnomore said:
Both KATM Modesto, "KISS Country" in Fresno, and KUZZ Bakersfield use a Top 40/Hot AC personality presentation, although maybe not with the energy that WOLF is using (listen to KUZZ's afternoon-lots of energy/enthusiasm), but a lot more than most of the stations in their markets. And both are very successful.
In the 80's Kansas City's 61Country WDAF was the best Top 40 (presentation wise) in the market. It sounded very much like an RKO Top 40 and their ratings were high.
Top 40 and an enthusiastic personality presentation works well with country music.
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