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Would the Bull flip?

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Wimmmex said:
"Ok, so go back to my point about... "
Click to expand...
Had you read the full statement, you would have seen that I was referencing my earlier reply Big A. "Ok, so go back to my point about...a company like Cumulus." I was brining in a addition observation. Don't know why that got you hung up. Instead of this (whatever it is) about a throw away opening to an objective observation that I have in what is (at least from my end) a cordial positive debate. You brought up that article from 2018, with the statement that 52% of all new cars in 2018 were being shipped with HD Radio. Did you miss the sentence right above where it stated that 50 million cars on the road (at the time) had HD Radio, then proceeded to state that was 18% of all cars on the road. And with that number, you want me to concede that HD is prevailing over streaming? You want me to agree that HD Radio is thriving? I disagree. Is it growing in isntall base? I can agree with that, but not that it's thriving. You focused on the 52% new cars made and conveniently omitted the 18% of all cars on the road from before. I didn't want to say that earlier, as a means sticking to my point. Stating "install base" was my means trying to respectfully address that.

I'll stick to the 52% in 2018 that you reference for this portion of this reply. That's near the flip of a coin. Without any other variables that's someone going to a random auto dealer to buy a car and the salesperson saying "spin this wheel, and if you land in the slightly bigger green space, you get HD Radio. If you land in the slightly smaller red space, you don't." With that, that doesn't mean that 52% of cars will be all sold. That just means that 52% of the 2018 offerings had HD Radio as an option. Now I'll apply proper research, and acknowledge the variables.

1. Some auto makers didn't include it all in certain models, so anyone buying those models in 2018 were already unable to get HD Radio with their car. And if that model happened to be more desirable and sold more than counterparts with HD Radio, than less HD Radios made it onto the road.

2. Your article was clear that the 52% included some starter models and some higher tiered models as an option for getting HD in that tier. For example, the Honda Ridgeline is a make and model that you get HD Radio only if you buy a higher trim (tier). You need to account for the possibility that people go to Honda, are interested in the Ridgeline, yet wanted to pay that bit less for the sports edition that had the full power specs, but lacked the sun roof, leather seats, and HD/Satellite Radio. One more of those sold is one less HD Radio on the road.

3. 52% of all cars made in 2018 doesn't correlate to all cars sold in 2018. Not only is it competing with people who didn't choose cars with HD Radio as an offering, but people who bought used models that year. How many car sales included used cars within that time frame? Once you go used, the 52% is a moot point. If they bought used cars that had HD Radio, they are already included in the 18% of all cars on the road. The only way for that 18% to increase is for a significant number of the 52% of new cars to have been sold.

I kept it at the revelant variables to increase the 18% of all cars. We can then go down the rabbit hole of numbers of cars with HD and Satellite as an option, people who even realize that their car comes with HD or listen to the HD stations, and people who have HD yet still choose to stream. Then let's not forget that 2018 was before our current economic times (pre-pandemic). Add the shortages in chips resulting in shortages in cars available, and inflation. Without any numbers to base this off, I would take a blind estimate that the 18% quoted in 2018 is at most 20% to 22% of all cars today. I'll account for 2018 and 2019, but once the pandemic hit, I say that number became stagnant.

To me, it was important to go to your point, because my point about companies who don't own a streaming service, yet still license their stations to another company's service, seems to have upset you. I honestly didn't let bother me that you flashed a single number at me while ignoring an equally important number to artificially inflate the impact of your position on the matter. But I said "Ok, go back to my point," so I know, much worse action on my behalf. And that's our lesson, in the future, I can give half information to make my position sound more valid, but I can't reference a previous point I made to another member of the forum (of which you may or may not have read).
 
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