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XM - Desperate times call for desperate measures...

S

Seven_Costanza

Is this O&A stuff a demonstation by a devoted fan base or a carefully orchestrated manuver by a company that is short on cash and needs any pub they can generate?

http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/ent_radio/story/317499p-271568c.html

I'm not debating whether this activity is right or wrong, I'm just wondering if it's possible that it's the creation of the marketing department and not some rabid fans.

If a link is able to be made, does XM then become culbable in the court of public opinion?
 
XM could always spend their money on fixing their sound quality. Another non-nerd, non-broadcasting friend commented on how he cancelled his subscription for his new car (built in XM) because the sound quality sucked.

As far as desperate measures, are we sure that "4 million subscribers" are ACTIVE current subscribers or is it statistics play where they've had 4 million "subscribers", but only 500,000 are active and paying?<P ID="signature">______________
</P>
 
> XM could always spend their money on fixing their sound
> quality. Another non-nerd, non-broadcasting friend
> commented on how he cancelled his subscription for his new
> car (built in XM) because the sound quality sucked.

If your friend is using the FM transmitter adaptor for his XM car radio, have him change to the cassette adaptor or get an in-dash readymade unit for the car.
The FM adaptor tends to make the vocals on songs disappear and ends up sounding like a Karoaoke machine. I switched over the cassette adaptor (and then an in-dash ready made unit) and couldnt be happier.
 
> Is this O&A stuff a demonstation by a devoted fan base or a
> carefully orchestrated manuver by a company that is short on
> cash and needs any pub they can generate?

XM short on cash? Compared to Sirius? I've seen more ads for XM than I have for Sirius. Seem like Sirius is hellbent on putting all their eggs in one basket (Howard) and paying ishloads of cash for big names with no radio experience (Martha Stewart, Eminem). But I digress...

Sounds to me like it's just a case of O&A being O&A. They are very honest with their audience. Even today, they were saying how they were "attention whores". They're quite honest about it.

I love these guys that read a blurb about O&A and...automatically...know exactly what they're all about when they havent even heard the show.

>>I'm not debating whether this activity is right or wrong<<

You sure about that?
 
It seems to me that your either a "paid" subscriber or a former subscriber. How can there be any middle ground here? Either there are 4 million or there aren't. It seems that this fact would be too easy to confirm or deny. That would be like saying that because I briefly listened to a station to test it out, I am considered their listener into perpetuity.

>
> As far as desperate measures, are we sure that "4 million
> subscribers" are ACTIVE current subscribers or is it
> statistics play where they've had 4 million "subscribers",
> but only 500,000 are active and paying?
>
 
> If your friend is using the FM transmitter adaptor for his
> XM car radio, have him change to the cassette adaptor or get
> an in-dash readymade unit for the car.
> The FM adaptor tends to make the vocals on songs disappear
> and ends up sounding like a Karoaoke machine. I switched
> over the cassette adaptor (and then an in-dash ready made
> unit) and couldnt be happier.

Please note I said "BUILT IN XM".<P ID="signature">______________
</P>
 
> It seems to me that your either a "paid" subscriber or a
> former subscriber. How can there be any middle ground here?
> Either there are 4 million or there aren't. It seems that
> this fact would be too easy to confirm or deny. That would
> be like saying that because I briefly listened to a station
> to test it out, I am considered their listener into
> perpetuity.

When they say "4 million subscribers" do they mean 4 million actively paid and current accounts or 4 million radio activations? There is a tremendous difference between the two.<P ID="signature">______________
</P>
 
<font color=brown>"It seems to me that your either a "paid" subscriber or a former subscriber. How can there be any middle ground here?<font color=black>

Here's who might be in that "middle ground":

1) A customer whose contract is in force but whose service has been cutoff for non-payment. Don't expect XM, or any company, to drop someone in this category from their subscriber count.

2) Those who get the service free. You know that not everyone at a concert paid for the ticket. It works that way in a lot of businesses. It's considered a promotional expense.


I'm not suggesting, nor do I think, they are inflating customer counts; I'm just answering your question. But the percentage of their subscribers who fall into one or the other of these categories is probably significant. The answer is probably buried somewhere in their SEC filings.

The unknown is: What percent of people who get free service for a year when they buy a new car equipped with satellite radio will renew the service when the contract expires.<P ID="signature">______________
Kill the traditionalists. Question everything.</P>
 
> Is this O&A stuff a demonstation by a devoted fan base or a
> carefully orchestrated manuver by a company that is short on
> cash and needs any pub they can generate?

I think you're reading too much into it. The Assault On The Media has been an O&A staple since WNEW (if not earlier). Remember when they had a woman take off her shirt on the Today Show? That was pre-XM.<P ID="signature">______________
...co-moderator of the Satellite Radio, Phoenix, and San Diego boards...</P>
 
> I think you're reading too much into it. The Assault On The
> Media has been an O&A staple since WNEW (if not earlier).
> Remember when they had a woman take off her shirt on the
> Today Show? That was pre-XM.
>

The line in the article that really sucked me in was "disruption campaign launched by the XM Radio hosts".

I'm not 100% familiar with their history, but were previous incidents "orchestrated" by O&A? Giving out instructions and such? Was it a "campaign"?
 
Almost all of the XM publicity has been TV and radio ads for their baseball coverage, which is a much smarter play than O&A, which have only a fraction of the audience as MLB. Doesn't seem desperate to me.


> Is this O&A stuff a demonstation by a devoted fan base or a
> carefully orchestrated manuver by a company that is short on
> cash and needs any pub they can generate?
>
http://www.nydail> ynews.com/entertainment/ent_radio/story/317499p-271568c.html
>
>
> I'm not debating whether this activity is right or wrong,
> I'm just wondering if it's possible that it's the creation
> of the marketing department and not some rabid fans.
>
> If a link is able to be made, does XM then become culbable
> in the court of public opinion?
>
 
> I'm not 100% familiar with their history, but were previous
> incidents "orchestrated" by O&A? Giving out instructions
> and such? Was it a "campaign"?

Listen to the show. Then compare what you hear to what you read in the paper.
<P ID="signature">______________
...co-moderator of the Satellite Radio, Phoenix, and San Diego boards...</P>
 
> I'm not 100% familiar with their history, but were previous
> incidents "orchestrated" by O&A? Giving out instructions
> and such? Was it a "campaign"?
>
When O&A were on WAAF Worcester (west of Boston, signal was geared to the east) they would have WOW. Whip Out Wednesday, refering to a part of the female anatomy. They also reported that Boston Mayor Tom Menino was dead (IIRC it was on or around April Fools), and they got suspended and ultimately left the station over that. I don't remember any disruptions of TV liveshots from their fans during this time. There also was experimentation by the station with jamming the FM signals and forcing all FMs to the 103.7 WAAF frequency. The fans being disruptive seems to happen after they went to New York, where the stakes were higher.
 
Fair enough...

...I'll agree that it's POSSIBLE these are simply demonstrations by overly rabid fans if you agree that it's POSSIBLE that these might be PR events staged by a company that quickly needs to gain some traction in the marketplace.
 
Re: Fair enough...

> ...I'll agree that it's POSSIBLE these are simply
> demonstrations by overly rabid fans if you agree that it's
> POSSIBLE that these might be PR events staged by a company
> that quickly needs to gain some traction in the marketplace.

Of course it's possible...but highly unlikely.

These type of events have been part of O&A's show for at least 10 years. It's more of O&A's way of getting *their* name out, rather than a strategy laid down by XM to compensate for lack of advertising.

It's called "geurilla warfare" and it works...obviously:

even the Sirius freaks are talking about it!
 
Desperate times?

Nothing like writers who write observations and then leak their personal feelings that more than likely impact those writings. Sterns followers are creative because they are challenging the system - in fact helping news organizations by pointing out some weakness in their fact checking - WTH?. How was calling talk shows and then yelling babablooey or whatever it was helping? Same as O&A's listeners dropping in the background of news shoots.

As to desparate times, the article linked below is March. I was flipping through channels last week and came across that screaming Jim guy on CNBC (Did they cancel Miller?) and someone called about Sirus buy, sell, hold. He flashed some bear full screen image for Sirius then said XM is the way to go (flashed a bull), better, sustained growth, partners, etc. then boom off to the next call. I am sure you can find folks to say what needs to be said about either.

A quick check of msn money's comparison (using Zack's data, 21 surveyed), XMSR is a moderate buy (Stong Buy-12, Mod Buy-2, Hold-5, Mod Sell-2, Strong Sell-0), SIRI is a hold (SB-6, MB-1, H-12, MS-1, SS-1) so I am not sure if XM's tactics have fooled the world, but no "BAIL" recommendations, in fact, closer to Stong Buy than Hold.

From a Investing 101 perspective, I hope this person wasn't buy this sector for a quick buck. Secondly, 37 was close to the 52-week high (~$40) and was at a time of decline. When the question was answered, the price continued to drop a few more days before coming back up a bit. All told, the questioner had held the stock for about 3 months and is writing for advice. The only person/entity making money on this type of trading is eTrade-types.

Based on the little I know about O&A and what I have heard of/and about Stern, the last thing either would do is wait around for the marketing department to promote their show. They are going to do whatever they can get away with to satisfy their egos. Even if XM endorses the 'marketing', the question I pose - Is that more desparate than marketing programs that will not even be a part of the program for months or years to entice people to buy in now?

> Is this O&A stuff a demonstation by a devoted fan base or a
> carefully orchestrated manuver by a company that is short on
> cash and needs any pub they can generate?
>
http://www.nydail> ynews.com/entertainment/ent_radio/story/317499p-271568c.html
>
>
> I'm not debating whether this activity is right or wrong,
> I'm just wondering if it's possible that it's the creation
> of the marketing department and not some rabid fans.
>
> If a link is able to be made, does XM then become culbable
> in the court of public opinion?
>
 
Are you insane?

> Is this O&A stuff a demonstation by a devoted fan base or a
> carefully orchestrated manuver by a company that is short on
> cash and needs any pub they can generate?

It's free publicity! As long as no fan or intern assaults the reporter, there's no problem. Further, the article you've linked is yet another free report that O&A are back, on XM.

> I'm not debating whether this activity is right or wrong,
> I'm just wondering if it's possible that it's the creation
> of the marketing department and not some rabid fans.

O&A started doing it back on WNEW, with gorilla suits, and flashing the Today Show. Now it's more or less just the signs. Arthur Chien gave them 100 times the publicity they would have had.

> If a link is able to be made, does XM then become culbable
> in the court of public opinion?

Arther Chien's firing didn't cause a publicity problem, and that "assault on the media" was done by an intern, and Cabbie from WXRK. They'll keep pushing the bounds until they blow up again.
 
Re: Fair enough...

>>It's called "geurilla warfare" and it works...

By definition, guerilla marketing (or warfare) is done from a position of weakness, so it sort of goes to prove my point. I've done it myself when I had no money. FWIW - floating around here somewhere is a copy of "Guerilla Video Production" (it wasn't written by Steven Speilberg).

>>obviously:

Getting national exposure like this doesn't necessarily translate into new subs. If fact, I haven't heard word one from XM about the number of subs Q&A have attracted. If it was a huge number, I'm sure XM would of told us about it.

My guess is that O&A are approaching some kind of one-year perfomance number that might kick in an incentive or two...
 
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