Re: What IS the state of radio?
> > > >
> > > I think Sat radio will do fine until the high-speed
> mobile
> >
> > > internet becomes deployed in most metros. I think
> there's
> >
> > > about ten years before that happens. That will be when
> > > streaming will have its day in the sun. Regardless,
> > > terrestrial will wither for many years to come, slowly
> > > loosing usefulness. I don't think it ever will totally
> go
> >
> > > away, however, it will NOT be a license to print money
> as
> > it
> > > has been for years.
> >
> > Radio has never been a license to print money. FCC figures
>
> > through the time financial reports ceased to be required,
> > and then independent reports, showed about half of all
> > stations, from the 50's through the 90's, did not make
> > money. There are too many of them.
> > >
> > > Terrestrial has taken the listener for granted for many
> > > years too long.
> >
> > There are many exceptions to that, enough to invalidate
> the
> > point. And the 60's and 70's operators... folks like Max
> > Richmond, Richard Eaton, Don Burden and such were probably
>
> > far worse than any of the corporations of today.
> >
> > > They have lost touch with what the listener
> > > wants, what they need.
> >
> > In most cases, they have a better sense of that... the
> kinds
> > of listener research and feedback that can be done today
> are
> > vastly superior to the cash Box subscription and some
> calls
> > to the record store.
> >
> > > They care nothing about the
> > > communities they serve or even the clients really. They
>
> > are
> > > living in disbelief that soon their kingdom will be
> > replaced
> > > by other broadcasting methods. Programming has
> suffered,
> > > and the public is mighty tired.
> > >
> > > Every so many years radio has a Renaissance.
> >
> > If you look carefully, you might conclude that this change
>
> > has been less apocalyptic and more gradual than it seems.
> > Most is evolutionary, not revolutionary.
> >
> > > When the
> > > network block programming was replaced with TV, radio
> had
> > to
> > > re-invent itself. Music radio was born.
> >
> > True and false. While TV hastened the move from network
> and
> > block radio programming, the real reason was the plethora
> of
> > independent stations licensed following the World War.
> >
> > The first Top 40 station, generally agreed to be KOWH in
> > Omaha in August of 1952, was not the first music station
> but
> > it was the first music station with what are close to
> being
> > today's formatics.
> >
> > In 1952, the TV freeze was still on. TV only reached about
>
> > 25% of the population, and very few people had sets. While
>
> > TV would kill the network radio programming and bring
> about
> > change, the end was really not until the late 50's. In the
>
> > meantime, music stations, especially Top 40, sprouted all
> > over the country.
> >
> > > When AM music
> > > radio became so corporate and controlled in the 70s, FM
> > > stations offered relief and soon overran AM with both
> the
> > > diversity of format and superior sound quality.
> >
> > I fail to see that AM music radio was corporate (whatever
> > that means) in the 70's. There was plenty of innovation in
>
> > programming, but the erosion of AM had already started in
> > the late 60's when the FCC mandated implementation of the
> > dropping of simulcasting it had ruled on several years
> > before.
> >
> > By ending simulcasting, in the late 60's we saw all combo
> > owned FMs create new programming, some good and some bad.
> > But we got progressive rock in the late 60's, AOR in the
> > early 70's, FM only CHRs in '72, and quite a few new
> formats
> > on FM, like Spanish, and a few early Black targeted
> > stations.
> >
> > > Now radio on
> > > FM has become the same dull product, or worse than what
> AM
> >
> > > used to be when it was effectively crap-canned by FM.
> >
> > The main reason FM started winning (parity was achieved in
>
> > 1988) was the non-simulcast rule, not the programming
> > itself. The programming was a byproduct of legislation.
> > Since the FMs had low spot loads and were more adventurous
>
> > since they started with no audience, they encroached on
> the
> > AMs. AM was hardly dull, as a listen to KCBQ or KHJ or
> even
> > WLS through the first half or more of the decade will
> show.
> > Even small market CHRs like WBBQ in Augusta did very
> well...
> > but in the end, the sound quality and lighter loads of
> > commercials made a difference. Keep in mind, during the
> 50's
> > and 60's, most major market CHRs ran the full 18 minutes.
>
> >
> > > It
> > > appears that XM and Sirius will have their day in the
> sun
> > > for a while. Then, streaming mobile in your car will
> > > replace them.
> >
> > I agree on the probability that some form of broadband
> will
> > replace satellite as an efficient delivery method. It may
> be
> > superior to AM and FM, too.
> >
> > I do not see XM and Sirius as having a day in the sun,
> > however. At present, with around 8 million subscribers,
> they
> > barely can break a 0.3 in local market ratings. In other
> > words, below minimum reporting standards. It will take
> over
> > 15 million subscribers to get around a 1 share (this
> assumes
> > that the current ratio of in car to portable installs
> > continues) based on average in car radio use of about 6
> > hours a day per person 18+.
> >
> > There are 5% of Americans who do not use radio each week.
> > There are another 7% or more of light users. If those who
> > don't use because there is nothing they want in mass
> appeal
> > formats buy sets, that will get the services to over 30
> > million subscribers and profitability. But will barely be
> > felt by radio.
> >
> > Broadband could be very different, totally remaking the
> > business model for programming delivery.
> >
> > > One cord runs though all of this. We are in
> > > the damn ENTERTAINMENT business. When the suites forget
>
> > > what business we are in, the eventually LOOSE. The
> public
> >
> > > will tolerate inferior product only so long, and then
> > there
> > > is hell to pay. Radio is long, long overdue.
> >
> > There have always been some sucky stations. I built my
> first
> > one on the premise that the competitors were
> > over-commercialized. I took all their audience and then
> > some. But that is competition, not a major change in
> radio.
> > The same will happen to today's radio. I don't see things
> as
> > bad off as you do, but that is a matter of opinion and I
> > certainly respect your criteria as you are looking at this
>
> > as an opportunity, and not doing the usual slam radio
> post.
> >
> > >
> > > Yes, I have XM. I tune to FM very, very rarely these
> > days.
> > > I cringe, but still gladly pay to get something that
> > doesn't
> > > suck. I put value on not having to listen to crap.
> > > Something tells me many others feel the same way. In
> > fact,
> > > over a million or so..
> > >
> >
> > About 8 million as of this quarter.
>
> I agree many stations suck, but there are many many that are
> just as good and better than XM. Satellite is just something
> new. We'll see how well it's doing in 10 years.
> >
>
There are many limitations to XM. The jocks are of rather poor quality. I wouldn't hire many of them to even work small market radio. For something that's pumped out of Washington D.C., the talent in general reeks. Also, I question their music rotation, frankly. I do believe they overcomensate with so much variety within the format of a particular channel they become too obscure in many cases. That being said, they serve a purpose mainly in that they serve audiences abandoned by terrestrial radio. If your format is Jazz, dance, industrial, real alt., big band, the blues, or many other formats not heard on terrestrial, then XM is quite a blessing. That's why I have it. It's not the quality of the channels in a way, it's the fact they have them. When streaming in your car happens it will be a much better choice I feel. Until then, if you want formats other than the norm, Sat. radio is a wonderful thing.
Also, people have made references to the fact that we, as FM broadcasters must go digital to be competitive to Sat. radio's sound quality. To my ears I'd say most stations have the digital grunge pumped out of XM and Sirrius all beat to hell. There is no analog noise or multipath issues, etc. via the bird, but the grunge is noticable to those persons that can hear well. Once again it's the ability to get a diversity of formats, not the quality of the broadcast really.
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