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Your dark predictions?

W

Wazzie

At the start of the year, I was going to predict that we would see an increase in stations going dark due to a poor economy. I just read this on-line a few minutes ago...

"There are 235 stations currently off the air, a 68% increase over a year ago. The biggest increase is from stations that simply say they cannot afford to keep the transmitter on any longer. The bright spot: The pace seems to have slowed".

So in your opinion, what stations in the Bay Area are doomed for darkness? ???
 
I think the FM's are safe. If anyone goes dark, it will probably be the small-coverage neglected AM stations. Operations like WWJB in Brooksville, with a STRONG local emphasis will be okay. But some other AMs, which don't follow WWJB's lead, IMHO, will look at tough times.
 
The only FM in the area I could imagine going dark would be 96.1 WTMP-FM. I still to this day don't know why WTMP spent the money for that signal. The talked about upgrades never happened; and for geographic area it covers, it would be far better suited as a different format. I just don't see how they're making money holding on to it.
 
billalm said:
The only FM in the area I could imagine going dark would be 96.1 WTMP-FM. I still to this day don't know why WTMP spent the money for that signal. The talked about upgrades never happened; and for geographic area it covers, it would be far better suited as a different format. I just don't see how they're making money holding on to it.
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Question: what is WTMP's signal like from the Egypt Lake site? When they were at Temple Terrace, you couldn't even get them at night in Lutz, or any of the northern suburb growth areas. I seem to remember that 96.1 does a pretty good job from New Tampa, Wesley Chapel and north. If that's still true, perhaps it makes sense because it compliments 1150's coverage. Having said that, my question is whether anyone up that way listens to WTMP? I'd have to think their "core audience" is still in Tampa-proper.

Another anecdote on 96.1. When it went to air as WBSB, it was a locally-programmed CHR station. They had nice studios in one of the bank buildings in Dade City. At the time it was co-owned with WPAS (which also moved to Dade City). I don't know if it was bad management or what, but I don't remember the station making any money (although my stint there was very brief) with a local format.
 
One more thought on 96.1. It would make more sense for WWJB to rebroadcast on that frequency, than WTMP.
 
David Sharp said:
One more thought on 96.1. It would make more sense for WWJB to rebroadcast on that frequency, than WTMP.
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Hi David,

I have often thought that 96.1 would be a good fit for WWJB especially in eastern Hernando county. My parents live near the intersection of U.S. 301 and State Rd 50 (Ridge Manor East) and WWJB AM doesn't come in that well during the day (WVLG from the Villages (640) and WFLF 540 - both come in better day and night)....... in fact 1450 WWJB isn't even receivable at night at US 301 and SR 50 due to the jumble of stations coming in on that graveyard frequency.

When 96.1 had their tower in Dade City, it seemed to be a stronger signal, at least at my parents' location; now the 96.1 tower is between Spring Lake Rd and just west of I-75 and just north of the Pasco/ Hernando county line.

WWJB does have strong local involvement and an fm signal that would cover eastern Hernando would complement their coverage of central and western Hernando county.

drt
 
Okay...I really seem to like this thread. I can understand why nobody is keen to drop call letters but suffice to say: in the seven county area that comprises greater Tampa Bay, I wouldn't be surprised if as many as ten AM stations went dark. I would suggest one or two each for Sarasota/Manatee, Pinellas, Pasco and Polk. I think most of the AM's in Hillsborough are okay, but who knows. A lot will hinge on when the economy stabilizes.
 
"There are 235 stations currently off the air, a 68% increase over a year ago. The biggest increase is from stations that simply say they cannot afford to keep the transmitter on any longer."

I asked this on another thread but never got a clear answer... Setting talent, mortgages, insurance, and profit aside, what is the general amount of money that would be needed to power up and adequately maintain (engineering-wise) a station such as WTAN or WEND?
 
David Sharp said:
, I wouldn't be surprised if as many as ten AM stations went dark. I would suggest one or two each for Sarasota/Manatee, Pinellas, Pasco and Polk. I think most of the AM's in Hillsborough are okay, but who knows. A lot will hinge on when the economy stabilizes.
Click to expand...

Supposedly 1500 WPSO is holding their own as the only full time Greek station in the area. WZHR has been running mostly Gospel and WDCF is bartered one minute, Spanish the next and Big Band after that. Guess as long as somebody's paying those bills....

WZPH LP 96.7 rolls on with their low power/deep playlist.

With regard to 96.1 it might be too big for Brooksville and too small for Tampa. Question may be, could you .. and if so, how would you....capture the Wesley Chapel/Land O'Lakes/South Pasco Suburban Sprawl audience?
 
"With regard to 96.1 it might be too big for Brooksville and too small for Tampa. Question may be, could you .. and if so, how would you....capture the Wesley Chapel/Land O'Lakes/South Pasco Suburban Sprawl audience?"

An uphill battle considering the powerhouse stations in the area. But if you was to do this, the one and only focus should be (drum-roll please)... Wesley Chapel/Land O'Lakes/South Pasco Suburban! Superserve your local audience. Go wherever your target audience goes and face-to-face promote your L-O-C-A-L station. On the air, talk about how nice it was to meet Mr & Mrs Doe... John & his lovely wife Dill at the carnival last weekend.

When you talk TO and ABOUT your LOCAL audience, you'll win. When you talk about your 14 cars or the ho you have in your studio, you're talking to your ego.
 
I am not sure I see these communities as places where that smaller community approach would work. They are just part of the megalopolis. I might take a page from the past in DC or LA and do a suburban focused CHR. Think WEEL in Fairfax. Sure you'd be competing with 933FLZ, but you would reaching suburban kids. You would have to be as good or better, but it has been done in suburban DC and in Orange Co. among other places. I know, that was back in prehistoric times, but I think it would be worth a try.
 
David...

I know you were expecting to see the call letters of stations that would go dark... but here's a thought... I don't think it happens.... not in this market. While down, we're too big and too competitive of a radio market for it to happen. Even the smallest AM's in the Metro still hold a lot of value and with the right financing, (and a reasonable ROI for the owner) they could generate a small but positive cash flow in this "beachfront" market... even in a tough economy.

That said... I could see an AM station or two going dark... but they would be away from the Tampa market.

There may indeed be a couple hundred AM's that have gone dark recently... if you look at the list, you'll see the names of smaller towns and cities where the value of a standalone AM has diminished. The owner had no choice but to shut it down. Odds are good he bought at the high end of the cycle and was expecting too much and didn't have the funding to hang on thru a recession. Very few of the stations that have gone dark are in the larger markets. In fact, an AM news/talker in Charlotte, NC went dark last week and it made all the trades. It was probably the smartest thing the licensee could have done... he stopped the immediate bleeding and in the process, got a lot of attention for his station and his plight... and you can bet a buyer will be snapping it up quickly.

Same would happen here.

If there were anyone in danger of actually going dark, you can bet that there would be a buyer... heck a broker like, Mark Jorgenson might snap it up and run it till it could be re-sold. Hey... I'd cash out what's left of my old CBS 401 K and buy into something like that!

How many times over the past few months have you heard the phrase "there's lots of money sitting on the sidelines." That money will start flowing when the guys holding it can purchase properties at the very lowest prices.
 
Hi Mike...no, I wasn't expecting call letters to be dropped...I don't think anyone would want to put their neck on the chopping block and suggest a "such-and-such" station will go dark. But what you say about buyers being ready to grab failing stations might be true. It's possible some stations will go dark for awhile, then "spring to life" with a new owner. I didn't mean to suggest that the stations in the Tampa market would be permanently dark...your scenario is more likely. But I do believe, in the seven county area, which also includes Sarasota-Manatee and Lakeland-Winter Haven, there are probably 8-10 stations at risk. Even at the best of times, I worked at stations with a "shoestring budget." Current economic woes won't help.
 
David Sharp said:
Hi Mike...no, I wasn't expecting call letters to be dropped...I don't think anyone would want to put their neck on the chopping block and suggest a "such-and-such" station will go dark. But what you say about buyers being ready to grab failing stations might be true. It's possible some stations will go dark for awhile, then "spring to life" with a new owner. I didn't mean to suggest that the stations in the Tampa market would be permanently dark...your scenario is more likely. But I do believe, in the seven county area, which also includes Sarasota-Manatee and Lakeland-Winter Haven, there are probably 8-10 stations at risk. Even at the best of times, I worked at stations with a "shoestring budget." Current economic woes won't help.
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I can think of one station in central Pinellas, that is supposed to be a daytime station, but was 24/7 for several years until fined by the FCC (don't know what took the FCC so long to notice) and then the owner had the lame excuse that the transmitter was broken and he wasn't able to turn it off; but miracle of all miracles after being fined by the FCC, they fixed it......... only now it seems to be broken again and the station is broadcasting most evenings, some evenings with just the carrier, others with their automated programming.

I also suspect that 1110 is having some serious financial problems as well, which could explain why they have a CP (for about 15 months at this point) to move the towers to a low rent district in Tampa requiring less real estate that their current three tower array near the water in St. Pete (they woud be non directional and reduce power during critical hours); I believe they thought they could make at least a short term profit by selling the land to a developer, but of course in the interim the real estate market has gone south.

I think other stations that could go dark, temporarily would be 1550 in Tampa (their nighttime signal of 133 watts doesn't even cover all of Tampa, let alone surrounding areas, 1220 and 1280 in Sarasota (like 1550, they don't even cover their city of license at night) and in Polk county I wonder about 1490 and in Pasco, I don't know how well 1350 or 1400 are doing in east Pasco; I do know that 1350 is always a surprise as to what the format of the day might be and in what language. :)

Just to the north of Hernando county , 1170 in Bushnell is dark about half the time.

drt
 
I actually think most of the Spanish AM stations will survive, only because 92.5 isn't getting higher ratings. I wouldn't be too concerned about nighttime coverage because many Bay Area stations have very poor coverage after sunset. Regarding WTIS...that station may actually be making money, since most (if not all) of the religious programs there pay pretty decent money to be on. This may be wrong, but I was told the proposed Tampa location was better sheltered from hurricanes and severe weather. I seem to think WTIS' location is right on the water and would no doubt be WAY UNDER WATER if a storm hit.
 
"I don't know how well 1350 or 1400 are doing in east Pasco; I do know that 1350 is always a surprise as to what the format of the day might be and in what language"

No one does. 1350 and 1400 are co-housed in the same location in Dade City. 1350 is supposed to lower power at night to 500 watts and go directional. But I'll be darned if I can tell the difference. ???
 
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