Inky: KYW Circles Bowl

[FredLeonard]

The Inquirer notes that Newsradio 1060 lost more than half its listeners over the last three ratings periods (including the drop in the most recent numbers, noted in another thread). Conclusion: KYW is as out of date as its signature teletype noise.

Mother of Mercy, is this the end of KYW?

PD Steve Butler was ducking the Inquirer's phone calls.

A consultant says the drop is only because it stopped snowing. Actually, it was still snowing during the early part of the three month period, in a winter that seemed like it wouldn't stop. In any case, it stops snowing every spring and KYW does see a drop in their numbers, but nothing like this.

A Temple journalism professor calls KYW's format "old and stale." Traffic and snow alerts are from "another era." New technology has made KYW's key features obsolete. Sounds like KYW's audience is relegated to old folks and late-late adopters - people ad buyers shun.

A historian once noted that people ask why the Roman Empire fell; the question should be why did it last so long. Same for KYW. As a consultant quoted in the article says the question should be how does an AM station with a bad signal stay on top so long?

Darwin said the law of nature is adapt or perish. KYW is stuck in a time warp with a format that's a hodge podge of CBS' all news format, Group W's all news format and a bunch of useless features (often featuring retired personalities in the market). No wonder Steve Butler is hiding from a newspaper reporter. He should be hiding from his bosses, too. Listen to Newsradio 880 or 1010 WINS or WTOP, which have evolved, and KYW seems even older and more out of it.

The cash cow is running dry. 1210 has been failing for close to 40 years. But KYW on the skids is much less obvious. A dead tree stands straight and tall, and seems strong, until the day it falls over.

Ding dong. KYW is dead. Read it and weep!
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20140515_KYW_ratings_skid.html

 

[umfan]

The station is likely still cashflowing. An updated format would do what? The very article you cite notes that people have other options. So while KYW and other all news stations may never again achieve the peak cume they once did, it doesn't mean the demise of either radio or this station. If it's not making money and could not be restructured to do so, that would be a different story, but that's not the case. The fact that their numbers rise when weather is an issue and major news stories abound show that many people still rely on the medium for information. Yes, Fred, there are alternatives now. The slice of the pie for radio is smaller than it once was. This is true but it doesn't equate to the end. Why is it that you want radio to die?

 

[FredLeonard]

The station is likely still cashflowing. An updated format would do what? The very article you cite notes that people have other options. So while KYW and other all news stations may never again achieve the peak cume they once did, it doesn't mean the demise of either radio or this station. If it's not making money and could not be restructured to do so, that would be a different story, but that's not the case. The fact that their numbers rise when weather is an issue and major news stories abound show that many people still rely on the medium for information. Yes, Fred, there are alternatives now. The slice of the pie for radio is smaller than it once was. This is true but it doesn't equate to the end. Why is it that you want radio to die?

For the record, I don't want radio to die. Besides, what I want (or you want) doesn't matter. The fact is, like it or not, radio - terrestrial, rusty tower, broadcast radio - is dying. And mismanagement is doing much to hasten its demise. But audio information and entertainment is not dying and there will be a demand for it for the foreseeable future. As long as radio management stays in denial and clings to the out-moded "broadcast model," it will not find itself a player in the game.

OK, so they still show black ink now. Are you saying a business should wait until it sees red ink before it makes needed changes to address and adapt to changes in the marketplace? The downward trend is evident. Doing nothing conveys that management has decided to run the station as cheaply as they can for as long as they can until it dies. Sounds like they are the ones expecting radio to die. And, yes, they are cutting costs, which is reflected in the quality of the on-air product, which is reflected in the decline of their audience numbers. Which in turn leads to more cutting, less quality, fewer listeners .... and the cycle repeats until CBS sells the station to some preacher. There is a long list of companies that followed the same strategy right to the end.

I assume you are in the Detroit area. I note that WWJ does not seem to following this same strategy (although other once notable stations in the market have).

 

[umfan]

WWJ hews to the All News format.

I just don't understand what changes you are advocating. Your post seems to indicate that there is no hope that the fate is sealed. That's not exactly a pronouncement that would make a good case for investment in the station or the format. So, to answer your question, no, I don't think they should wait until the station spews red ink, however, investments need to be smart, and with the acknowledgement that the medium isn't a high growth prospect. We disagree that it's dying however. It's share of the media pie will be less, but revenue will grow and will surpass the prior record in nominal dollars in the next few years. I see a resturcture of Clear Channel at some point, possible in Bankruptcy Court, because of their high debt load. CBS may spin off radio at some point, but there is still money to be made, and usefulness in its endurance. Radio isn't dead, nor will it be any time soon.

I'm not arguing with you, we just disagree.

 

[Eagle]

Doing nothing conveys that management has decided to run the station as cheaply as they can for as long as they can until it dies.

Hi there. I don't agree that holding off on making changes says that, exactly. We don't know what's going on there. They just went through some pretty big changes that you can't hear on the air. Maybe now they're concentrating on the product. For all we know, they may be feverishly poring over market research as we type these messages.

Or they might just be in a holding pattern, waiting to see what happens. The last thing they should do is overreact based on three months of ratings. This really could be a fluke. After all, there aren't any big, ongoing breaking news stories right now. (Think: hurricanes, government shutdowns, undecided presidential elections.)

We all know Philly is a market that doesn't like change. Every time a local broadcasting stalwart tries to make a change, they are rebuffed. (Anyone older than 30 probably recalls when Action News tried to update their theme song and the Delaware Valley reacted as if they were waterboarding Jim Gardner on the air.) They know they have to be really careful about which elements to change and which to leave intact. Traffic & Transit, for instance, has to stay "on the :02's" or all hell will break loose. Their trademark teletype sound effect may not fade until the moment they switch from the News format. Whatever changes they may make, they must make them smartly and with a great deal of delicacy.

As for the notion of radio companies "running stations as cheaply as they can for as long as they can until it dies:" I hate to say it but I think that's what a lot of radio companies are doing these days. I find it hard to believe they're all collectively stupid enough to not realize that terrestrial broadcast radio is a dying art. Even a bad businessperson knows you have to spend money to make money. All the industry seems to do these days is consolidate and produce a worse product. I really do think a lot of these companies see the writing on the wall and they are simply trying to squeeze whatever money they can out of radio until its inevitable collapse. It's sad (and pathetic) but I also believe it's true.

 

[radiophiler]

So, the Inky looks at the recent ratings and decides the story is KYW's one-book fall.
Nothing about WXTU's rise, which is a rise in the current popularity of country music.
Nothing about the cyclical nature of all-sports radio, due to whatever is (or isn't) happening with Philly's sports teams.
Nothing about how Urban radio specialist Radio One is continually beat by the two CC urban stations in the market (a battle that would seem worth profiling).
The Inky took the cheap, easy look at the current ratings. After one book?
Is this really the best news about radio in the Philly region, or is this some payback for KYW's continued coverage of the ownership woes at the Inky, Daily News and philly.com?
The Inky itself has a lot to be embarrassed about regarding its ownership woes over the last several years.

On the other hand ... if I were PD at KYW, there are several prime time anchors I'd be looking to can for their inept board skills and their general sound (or lack of it). They have people in-house who would be better. Ian Bush. Michele Durham. Maybe even get Steve N. and Brandon B. into morning drive.
Not too long ago they adjusted their clocks slightly also. I wonder if the decline in ratings has anything to do with that.

 

[TheBigA]

And mismanagement is doing much to hasten its demise. But audio information and entertainment is not dying and there will be a demand for it for the foreseeable future. As long as radio management stays in denial and clings to the out-moded "broadcast model," it will not find itself a player in the game.

Who is in "denial?" I don't know any broadcasters who aren't involved in getting their content on as many platforms as possible. We all know that people want our content, and they want it on all devices including phones and pads. The issue is getting those manufacturers to play ball.

As radiophiler says, as AM is declining, FM is still going strong. The people in denial are the folks at the FCC who have no solution for the AM problem other than to suggest FM translators. THAT is where the problem is.

 

[Small Market Guy]

People just now got tired of a stale format in the several ratings periods? Something else is up.

 

[Jul]

KYW needs to revamp its all news format, period . bringing in CBS News on the hour 24/7, 60 Minutes on Sunday and air long forum coverage of breaking news from CBS radio news and have a WCBS type of schedule.

 

[davideduardo]

Ding dong. KYW is dead. Read it and weep!
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The more likely explanation has to do with the PPM panel and the changes when Nielsen absorbed Arbitron.

Between the Holiday ratings period and this month, there has been much higher panel turnover than experienced in the past. This seems to involve changes from the Arbitron "tough love" system and the techniques used at the new Nielsen PPM call center in Florida. While Arbitron tried to have only one person be "point" for each installed household. That person would call if any member of the household was not in compliance and encourage them to carry the meter. Now, that personal contact is lost and calls are made by random folks in FL, seldom the same person the household knew and responded to.

The result is many more people leaving the panel before the 24 months are up, and many more new and "unproven" panel households being added, often with poor in-tabs as a result.

Many of us have seen "strange" changes in the panel and the results and many are making Nielsen aware of what areas need to be given more attention.

A decades-long ratings winner does not "go stale" in 90 days. It's a format, not yogurt. Were it an issue of the format as a whole, the successful newsers like WTOP, WBBM, KCBS, WWJ and, of course, WINS and WCBS would also have eroded. They didn't.

Posting "doom and gloom" over just 3 months of data is like yelling fire in a theater.

 

[FredLeonard]

Sometimes theaters have fires.

Notice that broadcasters are very willing to accept the results of polls by partisan pollsters on the payroll of some politician as gospel with only a cursory reference to the "margin of error" (which they clearly don't understand and is meaningless in the context of social research sampling). But all of a sudden they become experts on research methodology and sampling when the subject is audience measurement - and they have a dog in the fight.

 

[davideduardo]

Notice that broadcasters are very willing to accept the results of polls by partisan pollsters on the payroll of some politician as gospel with only a cursory reference to the "margin of error" (which they clearly don't understand and is meaningless in the context of social research sampling). But all of a sudden they become experts on research methodology and sampling when the subject is audience measurement - and they have a dog in the fight.

Radio audience measurement in most markets (and all the major ones) is done by Nielsen, an international research and polling company with impeccable credentials and tens of thousands of employees. They have no connection with politicians and never have. Measurement of electronic media is accredited (or not) by a group of some of the world's best statistics and survey authorities and sponsored, predominantly, by the agencies and advertisers who have the greatest interest in reliable and accurate measurement.

Statistics is the only science where "error" is not a dirty word. In polling, sample size is determined by the acceptable margin of error and the available funds to conduct a poll. A "happy" medium is reached between accuracy and afford ability. There is nothing new here... this is referred to in Lamely's 1934 book "Measurement in Radio" in a study specific to broadcasting.

Most broadcast companies that depend on ratings for a significant percentage of sales have more than one people on board who understand research, sampling and survey techniques. They examine the data Nielsen provides to clients each month, including panel changes, station panelist ebbs and flows and hundreds of other metrics and figures. They discuss these things with Nielsen and look for solutions. And they are experts, ever on the watch for anomalies that affect their livelihoods.

 

[TheBigA]

Sometimes theaters have fires.

We should point out that the circulation of the Inquirer has gone down by a larger margin than KYW's. For mostly the same reason.

So what's your solution? (other than saying "everything you do is wrong?")

 

[FredLeonard]

BigA: I posted my solution on the other while this one was on "hiatus." Sorry you never found your way over there. Besides, I'm not being paid to do Steve Butler's job for him. Clearly, he's not doing it.

DavidEduardo: It's wonderful no longer to have posts deleted for disagreeing with you. Clearly you (1) missed the point of my post and (2) don't know much about statistics and research methodology.

 

[umfan]

Julius is the only one who proposed a solution, that being a complete adoption of the CBS All News format. I have no idea if this would improve the situation, as I'm not familiar with the Group W format, but nothing is going to fix the fact that: there are more options for breaking news, weather and traffic updates then there once were and younger people, at least now, aren't big utilizers of traditional broadcast radio.

One area where Clear Channel does seem to be outpacing CBS is through iHeart and its app. I would suggest that CBS needs to better bundle its superior radio properties in a like manner and promote it the same way. I would further aver that once a location is set, have a button on that app for instant access to the latest weather and traffic update for the geographic region. This provides another avenue for the content already being produced to be consumed.

The media pie is growing, but radio's slice of it will remain flat to slowly growing. This does not mean the end of radio, not even the end of radio profits, it does mean an industry that needs to adapt. One book does not a full blown demise make.

 

[FredLeonard]

Julius is the only one who proposed a solution, that being a complete adoption of the CBS All News format. I have no idea if this would improve the situation, as I'm not familiar with the Group W format, but nothing is going to fix the fact that: there are more options for breaking news, weather and traffic updates then there once were and younger people, at least now, aren't big utilizers of traditional broadcast radio.

One area where Clear Channel does seem to be outpacing CBS is through iHeart and its app. I would suggest that CBS needs to better bundle its superior radio properties in a like manner and promote it the same way. I would further aver that once a location is set, have a button on that app for instant access to the latest weather and traffic update for the geographic region. This provides another avenue for the content already being produced to be consumed.

The media pie is growing, but radio's slice of it will remain flat to slowly growing. This does not mean the end of radio, not even the end of radio profits, it does mean an industry that needs to adapt. One book does not a full blown demise make.

Actually, I proposed it on the other board and Julius has agreed with me and repeated the idea.

The only station still doing the pure Group W format is 1010 WINS (you can listen online and compare and contrast with WCBS Newsradio 880).

Yes, I agree, radio needs to adapt. Darwin made that clear. But those adaptations are not likely to include rusty tower broadcasting. Just as the future of news in the written word is not likely to include dead trees. You're from Michigan. Maybe you've heard of the Durant-Dort Carriage Company of Flint. They made (horse drawn) carriages and wagons in the 19th century. Or maybe you know them by their current name: General Motors.

 

[davideduardo]

DavidEduardo: It's wonderful no longer to have posts deleted for disagreeing with you. Clearly you (1) missed the point of my post and (2) don't know much about statistics and research methodology.

That's a classic political tactic: try to discredit an opponent by lying about their knowledge of an area. Even if the person so attacked responds later and disproves the lie, the damage is already done via the preemptive assault.

FYI, I was on the Arbitron work group committee that monitored the PPM introduction in Philadelphia going back to 2002, and was not selected for my lack of knowledge of statistics and research. I could add other details going back to the 60's but since you are not interested in understanding what may really have happened to KYW that does not fit your preconclusion and agenda, I'll skip it.

 

[radiophiler]

David E: I'm interested. I notice earlier in this thread you mentioned the transition from Arbitron to Nielsen. I'd be curious to hear more from you.
We've all seen one month (or book) flukes over the years. Or even multi-month dips. Station suddenly takes a significant dip in ratings. We used to hear (and in most markets under #50 still hear) about "bad diary placement," (or at least different diary placement than usual). I suppose there's no reason to think that has changed with the change from paper to electronic measurement.

 

[davideduardo]

David E: I'm interested. I notice earlier in this thread you mentioned the transition from Arbitron to Nielsen. I'd be curious to hear more from you.
We've all seen one month (or book) flukes over the years. Or even multi-month dips. Station suddenly takes a significant dip in ratings. We used to hear (and in most markets under #50 still hear) about "bad diary placement," (or at least different diary placement than usual). I suppose there's no reason to think that has changed with the change from paper to electronic measurement.

There is a big difference between the diary and the PPM in that the diary "panel" changes every week, while in the PPM the panel attempts to keep each household / dwelling unit for 24 months. So if there is a bad set of participants in the diary, it affects just one week. In the PPM, panel issues can take months to resolve as it is the same group of people every day of every week. So "Groundhog Day" scenarios can and do occur.

In the specific case of the transition, Nielsen wanted to consolidate call centers. PPM practices involve frequent calls to the participant households... encouragement, incentives, scolding for not being in compliance, etc. In the past, a household was called by the same person always, with maybe one backup person. A relationship developed. Panel turnover averaged around 8% per month. Nielsen changed the system and was not using "same contact person" techniques; they were also using new staff with little PPM experience. The combination increased panel turnover by as much as 40% in some recent months in some markets. Obviously, with large panel turns, the ability to track the existing listener base is lost... and many new panelists don't last more than 60-90 days, causing more turnover.

It will likely take several more books to find out if this is a station issue or a panel / Nielsen issue. For the moment, jumping to conclusions is not a good idea.

 

[Eagle]

Interesting thoughts in this thread.

• @David: If panel turnover did this to KYW, how come just about everyone else stayed steady?
• @Juls: I think I may disagree with every single thing you suggested there.
• @Radiophiler: I agree that The Inquirer writing an article about KYW's woes is a super-awesome example of the pot calling the kettle bankrupt. But I'm not sure as many people in general would be interested in the stories you wanted the article to tell. You and I (and likely everyone reading this) would of course prefer to read the article you suggested. But they're trying to sell papers and SEPTA Joe would likely not care about all of that.

Thoughts?