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NBC Has $1B+ Hole to Plug Due to Olympics Delay

U

umfan

https://www.arcamax.com/business/businessnews/s-2342429

The postponement of the Tokyo Olympics will not only force NBC to settle with advertisers, but to quickly come up with programming to fill the holes where Olympic programming was to air. NBC has been down this road before, when the US cancelled its participation in the 1980 Olympics and NBC chose not to air the games as a result.
 
umfan said:
https://www.arcamax.com/business/businessnews/s-2342429

The postponement of the Tokyo Olympics will not only force NBC to settle with advertisers, but to quickly come up with programming to fill the holes where Olympic programming was to air. NBC has been down this road before, when the US cancelled its participation in the 1980 Olympics and NBC chose not to air the games as a result.
Click to expand...

If come July, no live sports (other than horse racing, maybe) are available and no new drama/comedy is being produced, and even game show production is still halted, what would fill those holes? Or are you assuming that the nation is back to something approaching "normal" by then? NBC doesn't have MLB rights, so even empty-stadium games wouldn't be available.
 
There are two ways to look at it. The loss for the broadcast this year, or another year for the preliminary trials and build-up for the games next year.

At some point, people will be able to gather again, and when they do, they will need to make up for the time lost.

As for the sponsors, there are always "institutional sponsors," those who will sponsor whenever the games happen. What I've noticed is that product releases have also been delayed, so that means any of the ad campaigns for those products will be delayed. From an advertiser's perspective, one of the issues will be price. Can they lock in this year's spot price for next year's event?

The other thing I've mentioned before is insurance. With any event, particularly an outdoor event, there is insurance for delays or cancelation. So certain costs will likely be covered, since the IOC postponed the event, which was very different from the US boycott in 1980. NBC has spent money building their sets and facilities. They've produced a number of features already. Most of them will be usable next year.
 
As far as replacement programming, from my perspective, that's a whole new business. People who do program production for a living are busy right now coming up with stuff.

When the ACM announced it was postponing their annual country awards from April to September, CBS had a 3 hour hole in its schedule. The production company that does the awards quickly came up with a replacement show, featuring country stars performing their hits at home. Instance replacement. Will it attract the same audience as an awards show? We'll see.

I'm expecting that NBC Sports people are looking for ways to use their Tokyo facilities and the Olympics backdrop to create replacement programming. Plus I'm also expecting an explosion of activity from other sports to make up for the two months of losses. If you're sitting in a board room, the goal is to turn this lemon into lemonade.
 
If the NHL comes back, maybe you could do a early game, then a late game after late local news. the late game could also air on NBCSN or CNBC if the news is too important to drop.
 
TheBigA said:
As far as replacement programming, from my perspective, that's a whole new business. People who do program production for a living are busy right now coming up with stuff.

When the ACM announced it was postponing their annual country awards from April to September, CBS had a 3 hour hole in its schedule. The production company that does the awards quickly came up with a replacement show, featuring country stars performing their hits at home. Instance replacement. Will it attract the same audience as an awards show? We'll see.

I'm expecting that NBC Sports people are looking for ways to use their Tokyo facilities and the Olympics backdrop to create replacement programming. Plus I'm also expecting an explosion of activity from other sports to make up for the two months of losses. If you're sitting in a board room, the goal is to turn this lemon into lemonade.
Click to expand...

NBC might have NHL playoffs under that scenario, unless the league decides to abandon its nearly completed 2019-20 season and open training camps for 2020-21 on time in September. I'm sure NBC brass will be "leaning" on commish Gary Bettman to "do the right thing" for TV.

Does NBC have any boxing connections?
 
Still a lot of unknowns about what the landscape will lookalike come mid summer. But for daytime and primetime and answer could--in the absence of other sports being resumed, IF that is the case--could be regular programming. Today, Days, the syndies/news on the affiliates. Reruns in primetime. Much the same as it would be in the other weeks. If you get some sports back--a la NHL--sure, you can plug some spots there.

NBCSN and the other cable networks can follow a similar model. What they're doing in say mid June they can do, more or less, in July.

And now there's a boost to 2021 revenues, in a non presidential election year.
 
danderson6500 said:
If the NHL comes back, maybe you could do a early game, then a late game after late local news. the late game could also air on NBCSN or CNBC if the news is too important to drop.
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As much as I would personally love that, I am aware that hockey isn't the ratings-getter or money maker that other sports are.
 
TheBigA said:
As much as I would personally love that, I am aware that hockey isn't the ratings-getter or money maker that other sports are.
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If no new reality or scripted programming is in the can at that point, would reruns be more attractive to advertisers? NBC has much of its non-Olympics sports budget sunk into sports that are either out of season in midsummer or don't have mass-audience appeal. Unless the IOC decides to hold trials for the 2021 Games when the 2020 Games would have been taking place, that leaves one, perhaps two or three, sports options: the NHL, boxing/MMA (if NBC can cut a deal with a minor player in those sports), or Premier League soccer (a possibility, as the Football Association desperately wants a conclusion to the British season, which has a promotion/relegation element worth tens of millions of dollars to affected clubs). The problem with the Premier League, besides appeal even more limited than the NHL, is that all games are played between 7:30 a.m. and 5 p.m. Eastern U.S. time, which does prime time no good at all.
 
CTListener said:
If no new reality or scripted programming is in the can at that point, would reruns be more attractive to advertisers?
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Not as attractive as event programming. That's more of where I'd be thinking. The reruns are being used now. They usually have a bunch of new or developmental shows in the can they can run at any time. But they'd prefer something where they could charge a premium price to advertisers.
 
CTListener said:
NBC might have NHL playoffs under that scenario, unless the league decides to abandon its nearly completed 2019-20 season and open training camps for 2020-21 on time in September. I'm sure NBC brass will be "leaning" on commish Gary Bettman to "do the right thing" for TV.

Does NBC have any boxing connections?
Click to expand...


Olympic Boxing?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_Boxing_Champions

I know NBC at one point had a deal with Premier Boxing Champions but thats now uncertain given the situation we are in today.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boxing_on_NBC
 
RadioPatrol said:
Olympic Boxing?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_Boxing_Champions

I know NBC at one point had a deal with Premier Boxing Champions but thats now uncertain given the situation we are in today.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boxing_on_NBC
Click to expand...

I was thinking either PBC, Top Rank or Oscar De La Hoya's Golden Boy Promotions. I was trying to remember whether I'd seen any PBC fights on any of the NBC channels before the shutdown but all the shows I've watched recently have been on Fox, FS1 or FS2. Top Rank's deal, of course, is with ESPN, as it's been since the early '80s. I have no idea who Golden Boy is aligned with now -- DAZN, maybe?
 
NBC does have NASCAR and IndyCar rights, with most broadcasts scheduled for NBCSN. With schedule changes to those series surely forthcoming once the COVID-19 outbreak subsides, I would guess these series could fill part of the void on NBC.
 
NBC could ask WWE to either air Monday Night Raw or NXT in prime time either on Mondays or Wednesdays to fill the summer schedule.
 
nickp said:
Hockey fans just imagine NHL hockey in July and August! on nbc Summer is going to be lit!!!
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I hope it happens. I don't care whether it's on NBC or NBCSN. As a Bruins fan for 52 years I was really excited about this year's team's chances of getting back to the final and getting it done. There were less than 20 games left in the season when the league shut down, so it's not like baseball in '94 when there were still about 60 left. But it all depends on when this thing peaks and, when it starts to decline, when it reaches the point that it's safe to allow at least the players, coaches, support staff, TV crews, arena workers into the buildings. I don't think fans are going to be allowed in for any sport that restarts this spring or summer; I kind of have my doubts about football in September, to be honest. But Wuhan supposedly has weathered the storm in about 3 months and is beginning to live again, so hopefully this country can do the same -- it will take resolve, unity and discipline.
 
Bottom line, this crisis is not only a problem for workers, but for the major sports networks. This is a loss of billions for NBC Universal, but Disney also (ABC/Espn), and perhaps somewhat less for Viacom (CBS), and Fox. The earthquake has occurred and now they are in rebuilding mode.
 
seatownmedia said:
Bottom line, this crisis is not only a problem for workers, but for the major sports networks. This is a loss of billions for NBC Universal, but Disney also (ABC/Espn), and perhaps somewhat less for Viacom (CBS), and Fox. The earthquake has occurred and now they are in rebuilding mode.
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You can see it in their stock prices. Bob Iger just retired as CEO of Disney. That was over a month ago. Their stock price was around $150. Yesterday it went to $80. ViacomCBS has dropped by 50%. So everyone knows this is hurting major media companies. Comcast (NBC Universal) was at $48 in early February and it's now at $34. That's not too bad, compared to the others. The telecoms seem to be less affected.
 
This is an unfortunate turn of events for all businesses. However, it's also proving to be an opportunity for local, network, and cable TV. Overnights are showing huge growth in viewership over the past two and a half weeks. That includes even repeats where many viewers, now relegated to staying home, are watching programming they hadn't seen in it's original form.
 
That may be true, but it’s hard to monetize that. Auto being the bread and butter is going to pull back somewhat (especially where they showrooms are closed). Areas with theme park revenue—dried up for now. Lots of retail pulled back. Eventually that political revenue will flow—it seems inevitable—but now that stream would need to offset the lost money from elsewhere just to break even. And when things more or less reset to normal, viewing patterns are likely to follow. No long term revenue bump—heck, it may be worse for a while if content is second or third tier while production ramps back up.
 
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