It's amazing how those ARRL contests bring the bands to life every year. Just recently, the 160-meter contest (which, for some reason, is CW only) had the lower 40 khz of that band jam-packed for the better part of two nights. This, in a band that, on a normal night, I can scan at 9 p.m. and find maybe four CW QSOs in progress and eight on the phone band. There must be thousands of hams who only get on HF -- or on the air at all -- to participate in contests.
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By 2040 the ham bands will also probably be MIA. Amateur radio is aging out. A lot of the present day amateurs (I think the number of hams in the US is around 350K currently) are inactive, and have been for a long time.
Also, the cost of HF transceivers is ultra high. And older transceivers do not often age well. It's not like in 2035 that someone with a broken ICOM or Kenwood will either a) be able to repair it or b) be able to take it anywhere to have it repaired. I would wager that by 2030 the ham radio manufacturers may be out of business, with possibly 10 meter rigs and a few VHF handhelds (made by Chinese companies) probably being the only exception.
But for the next few years, especially if the sunspots kick in, yeah, there will be activity on amateur HF. I suppose it will be listen for 'em while you can still hear 'em.
Proving a point about the dead shortwave bands. I can only hear about as many stations as my fingers on 49 meters at 0500z. THREE with Brother Stair. One WEWN, WTWW on 5830, a WRMI on 5985 (barely), Marti, and the only interesting stations - Radio Educacion in Mexico City at 6185 and a weak to fair France on 6040 in French.
Twenty years ago in the early evening, you could not find an open channel on 49 meters. You can drive a truck through some of these gaps now.
Twenty years ago in the early evening, you could not find an open channel on 49 meters. You can drive a truck through some of these gaps now.
One place where SW broadcasters still hold sway after dark is, unfortunately, the 40-meter amateur band above 7200 kHz. Most of it is religious or right-wing slop, but listen to Radio Romania International and you'll imagine you're back in 1975, listening to stations from across Europe delivering tidy half-hours of news, commentary, touristy features, folk music and a weekly mailbag show (including reception reports gratefully acknowledged!) to North American ears. Does any other government broadcaster still cling to this format template from shortwave's past?
Yeah, but ham radio is still aging out. We're talking 2040 here, right? I don't like the idea of my favorite radio bands aging out any more than you or any other DXer, and I used to prowl the HF ham bands a lot. I don't even hear much activity on the 2 meter band, and in the 1980s it was always busy. It's a combination of hams leaving the radios in the closet, or just losing interest, sadly enough.
I hope what you've said still strikes true in 10 years. Maybe it will. On the ham forums, guys are talking about sunspots being the problem. JT65 only does so much. It's like your computer is doing the DXing, not you...
Re RRI...
One of the other, very few SW stations still using that format would be Voice of the Islamic Republic of Iran. They are still alive and well in some way or another! Albeit 9.022khz has been blank for many years now, they are using multiple in-band channels.
Somehow Vatican Radio is still ticking. And All India Radio has one or two English broadcasts a day, but far fewer than in years past.
One of the other, very few SW stations still using that format would be Voice of the Islamic Republic of Iran. They are still alive and well in some way or another! Albeit 9.022khz has been blank for many years now, they are using multiple in-band channels.
Somehow Vatican Radio is still ticking. And All India Radio has one or two English broadcasts a day, but far fewer than in years past.
The decline in 2-meter repeater use is somewhat puzzling. The experience of chatting with a half-dozen or more people at the same time on your commute is not easily duplicated by more modern technology, so why aren't hams still doing so in the numbers they were 30 years ago? All I can figure is that most of them are no longer commuting, either working from home or having retired or died, and their numbers haven't been replenished by freshly licensed ham commuters.
If that's so, 2 is doomed, as a robust peak of the sunspot cycle is irrelevant to a strictly local use of amateur radio (repeaters) and skip conditions on the band are rare no matter what the sun is doing, so only the tiny VHF DX community will come rushing back to 2 simplex.
I noticed the drastic dip in 2 meter activity when I got back into the radio hobby about 10 years ago. I had dug out my analog AM-FM-SW-VHF multibander and tuned through the 2 meter band, and it was amazingly silent, where just 20 years earlier there were at least two or three repeaters (including an long distance intertie between repeaters cross-state) that had plenty of activity most afternoons and into the evening. It wasn't the radio, as the NOAA stations and fire frequencies still had activity.
Maybe it went down for the same reason as CB.
I know 2 meter handhelds still sell, because I see references to them on the ham forums, but I don't hear the results when I tune across the 2 meter spectrum.
Back to our predictions, I think a lot of it depends on the economy. If we hit a recession, and it lasts as long as the last one did, the 'thinning' of the AM band (and possibly the FM band, too) may speed up. We may see more stations disappear by 2030. If the economy improves, it may take longer. There are a lot of ethnic broadcasters on the AM band, and the AM band is sort of like an overflow area for what won't fit on FM.
Maybe it went down for the same reason as CB.
I know 2 meter handhelds still sell, because I see references to them on the ham forums, but I don't hear the results when I tune across the 2 meter spectrum.
Back to our predictions, I think a lot of it depends on the economy. If we hit a recession, and it lasts as long as the last one did, the 'thinning' of the AM band (and possibly the FM band, too) may speed up. We may see more stations disappear by 2030. If the economy improves, it may take longer. There are a lot of ethnic broadcasters on the AM band, and the AM band is sort of like an overflow area for what won't fit on FM.
Lack of 2-meter activity may be a regional thing. There is plenty of activity on 2 around here (Raleigh-Durham NC). There are at least three or four active repeaters, some with multiple linked locations. I also hear a fair amount of simplex being worked.
Not only that, but there is a fairly active 220 machine and similar activity on 440.
I hear at least one or two new hams get on the air every week. Maybe not exploding in popularity, but there are still some people seeking out the hobby. Possibly some of this can be attributed to the cheap handhelds (Baeofeng, etc.) available now.
Not only that, but there is a fairly active 220 machine and similar activity on 440.
I hear at least one or two new hams get on the air every week. Maybe not exploding in popularity, but there are still some people seeking out the hobby. Possibly some of this can be attributed to the cheap handhelds (Baeofeng, etc.) available now.
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