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2017 Media Predictions

If indeed the auction doesn't close at 84 MHz, perhaps instead of the TV band running from 2 to 38, the FCC might decide that 7 to 38 will be sufficient for broadcast TV, then grandfathering existing ops on channels 2 - 4. Channels 5 and 6 will become the eventual replacement for the 540 - 1700 kHz band. odds?: < 5%

Option two of above would only have channel 6 used for the replacement for the old AM band odds?: < 10%

The odds of both are less than 0.0%. For the umpteenth time, the FCC has made it absolutely clear (and Congress has said nothing about the subject) that 54-72 and 76-88 MHz will remain allocated for television use, and only television use.
 
ItsRoly4266 said "FS2 will disappeate due to low ratings, despite a comeback." Fixed. I don't think FS1 is going anywhere, it's a moneymaker for Fox. A lot of Sprint Cup races are on there, as is college football games from rather popular teams. FS2 is a lost cause.

Hate to say this, but I could see GSN getting rid of ALL of their older game shows (Press Your Luck, Card Sharks, etc) and replacing them with Family Feud reruns and reruns of GSN programming (like Catch 21 or Chain Reaction). EVERY TIME I watch GSN, it's always Harvey Feud.

In the Yakima Tri-Cities market, KIMA and KEPR will still continue to use 2006 Fisher graphics on their news, and use that bare-bones blue set with the HD monitors displaying the Action News logo. Or, KIMA might start closing up shop and sending their 5PM news to KEPR (mornings and weekends are combined "KIMA KEPR Action News"), thus only a local newscast at 6PM (and pre-recorded from KEPR at 11PM).
KVEW and KAPP will still use that silly green screen set. The view of the Tri-Cities behind the anchor looks OK...but it's actually a green screen (even the DESK is green! Jeez!) No wonder they are dead last in both markets.

DirecTV and Dish will NOT go straight to streaming-only. That would put millions of people, like my relatives (without internet), with only an antenna and networks to watch.

Five new cities will be added to Bravo's "Real Housewives" lineup. Like they need more, but Andy Cohen loves it!

Do you think the Yakima stations will finally just close up shop completely and just have KNDU KEPR Zane KVEW. I've been thinking for years this would come to pass.
 
Commercials for erectile dysfunction products, constipation meds, and anything else related to
bodily functions, will become even more crass, graphic, and in-your-face.
 
They're already are. I saw a TV ad of some blonde model sitting on the toilet touting a spray that will cover the 'devil's donuts', as if leaving a movie set bathroom saying 'you don't want your co-star to get a whiff of your breakfast burrito'. This is a product called "V.I. Poo". Hope the actress is not now 'type cast'!
 
Do you think the Yakima stations will finally just close up shop completely and just have KNDU KEPR Zane KVEW. I've been thinking for years this would come to pass.

KAPP is practically a satellite of KVEW now. Same w/ KNDO, a satellite of KNDU. This was NOT the case 15+ years ago when both had studios on opposite sides of 24th Avenue. They used to have local Yakima news in early evenings and at 11, with local anchors (Dana Cowley on KAPP comes to mind). I've seen recent combined 35-42 newscasts, but I hardly ever watch them. The whole set is a green screen, and very silly. David Lee is the rather menacing voice that introduces the news on "KVEW 42-KAPP 35." This is the same guy who is the imaging voice at many FM ROCK STATIONS throughout the country, and imaging for Westwood One's NFL radio broadcasts.
23/25 has the better product, they've even got Monty Webb now, ex-WHAS, ex-KIRO/KCPQ. But they too are combined 24/7 now. This wasn't the case pre-2000.

KIMA's news won't go anywhere anytime soon, but one of their weeknight newscasts (5, 6 or 11) might end up becoming another "KIMA-KEPR Action News" broadcast full time, out of Pasco. About half of the 11PM newscast is already that way, with Tom Yazwinski or Cody Proctor prerecording a Yakima news insert in the first several minutes. Mike McCabe's Yakima weather? It's taped! While he is doing "Yakima's" weather, he's live at KEPR doing Tri-Cities weather. 29 hasn't had a local meteorologist in almost 10 years, since Stu Seibel retired.
My idea for 5PM going to a simulcast is plausible, it would save KIMA more money (and one 6PM newscast would have everything - news, weather and sports).

The absolute worst case, WORST case scenario I could see, is KIMA turning into a satellite altogether of KEPR. If KIMA keeps up with KEPR-produced newscasts, I could see this happening by the end of the decade (with a couple of Yakima based reporters). This could also affect their studio space in Terrace Heights - why have it when there might be zero newscasts originating from there?

Hate to rant so much about Yakima's news, but I hate what little effort they put into it. KIMA gets points for having a genuinely local newscast at 5, 6 and part of 11PM weeknights. Scott Stovall is a good anchor, with a lot of local experience (prev. KLEW and KNDU).
Sometimes I wish I could move to Ellensburg. I've been spoiled by KOMO/KING/KIRO/KCPQ. KCPQ-13 still has most of their news staff from when I left years ago, the new set is also top-notch as well. KIRO still has Steve Raible and a plethora of veteran reporters, they too improved their news product. KING looks terrible nowadays, since Tegna dumped Dennis Bounds, Jeff Renner and a bunch of other veterans - not to mention taking NWCN off the air next month. KOMO is OK, even post-Dan Lewis retirement. Mary Nam, Molly Shen, Elisa Jaffe, Eric Johnson etc. have been with KOMO forever.
You can't get KCPQ on cable in Ellensburg, but you can get them on a ch 7 DT translator. 4, 5 and 7 are on Charter cable.
 
KAPP is practically a satellite of KVEW now. Same w/ KNDO, a satellite of KNDU. This was NOT the case 15+ years ago when both had studios on opposite sides of 24th Avenue. They used to have local Yakima news in early evenings and at 11, with local anchors (Dana Cowley on KAPP comes to mind). I've seen recent combined 35-42 newscasts, but I hardly ever watch them. The whole set is a green screen, and very silly. David Lee is the rather menacing voice that introduces the news on "KVEW 42-KAPP 35." This is the same guy who is the imaging voice at many FM ROCK STATIONS throughout the country, and imaging for Westwood One's NFL radio broadcasts.
23/25 has the better product, they've even got Monty Webb now, ex-WHAS, ex-KIRO/KCPQ. But they too are combined 24/7 now. This wasn't the case pre-2000.

KIMA's news won't go anywhere anytime soon, but one of their weeknight newscasts (5, 6 or 11) might end up becoming another "KIMA-KEPR Action News" broadcast full time, out of Pasco. About half of the 11PM newscast is already that way, with Tom Yazwinski or Cody Proctor prerecording a Yakima news insert in the first several minutes. Mike McCabe's Yakima weather? It's taped! While he is doing "Yakima's" weather, he's live at KEPR doing Tri-Cities weather. 29 hasn't had a local meteorologist in almost 10 years, since Stu Seibel retired.
My idea for 5PM going to a simulcast is plausible, it would save KIMA more money (and one 6PM newscast would have everything - news, weather and sports).

The absolute worst case, WORST case scenario I could see, is KIMA turning into a satellite altogether of KEPR. If KIMA keeps up with KEPR-produced newscasts, I could see this happening by the end of the decade (with a couple of Yakima based reporters). This could also affect their studio space in Terrace Heights - why have it when there might be zero newscasts originating from there?

Hate to rant so much about Yakima's news, but I hate what little effort they put into it. KIMA gets points for having a genuinely local newscast at 5, 6 and part of 11PM weeknights. Scott Stovall is a good anchor, with a lot of local experience (prev. KLEW and KNDU).
Sometimes I wish I could move to Ellensburg. I've been spoiled by KOMO/KING/KIRO/KCPQ. KCPQ-13 still has most of their news staff from when I left years ago, the new set is also top-notch as well. KIRO still has Steve Raible and a plethora of veteran reporters, they too improved their news product. KING looks terrible nowadays, since Tegna dumped Dennis Bounds, Jeff Renner and a bunch of other veterans - not to mention taking NWCN off the air next month. KOMO is OK, even post-Dan Lewis retirement. Mary Nam, Molly Shen, Elisa Jaffe, Eric Johnson etc. have been with KOMO forever.
You can't get KCPQ on cable in Ellensburg, but you can get them on a ch 7 DT translator. 4, 5 and 7 are on Charter cable.

Hey Crainbebo...I agree with a lot of what you are saying but this is the wrong forum for that. Should be in TV States. Just a polite suggestion.
 
Yes, it should be. But I had a user ask me about the state of the three main Yakima TV stations, thus I responded. There is a thread already on the WA State forum.
 
The odds of both are less than 0.0%. For the umpteenth time, the FCC has made it absolutely clear (and Congress has said nothing about the subject) that 54-72 and 76-88 MHz will remain allocated for television use, and only television use.

One thing I've learned over the decades is to "never say never." AM on FM translators was a concept rooted in fantasy fifteen and twenty years ago. I was one of those who would have said that would happen "when pigs fly."

And with the TV spectrum auction receiving less than stellar attention by the cellular industry, down to 84 MHz from the original 126 MHz, the need to preserve low band VHF spectrum has diminished. There's a strong chance that radio-friendly Ajit Pai may be the new head of the FCC with the advent of the Trump administration. I think there's a chance that 82 - 88 MHz to radio may get a passing mention at the FCC in the next few years. Not a very strong chance, but more than zero.
 
They're already are. I saw a TV ad of some blonde model sitting on the toilet touting a spray that will cover the 'devil's donuts', as if leaving a movie set bathroom saying 'you don't want your co-star to get a whiff of your breakfast burrito'. This is a product called "V.I. Poo". Hope the actress is not now 'type cast'!

When these show up on YouTube I can't hit "Skip Ad" fast enough. At least V.I. Poo doesn't have the budget to buy out the "Skip Ad" function. Same goes for that "going Commando" crap from Cottonelle.
 
The odds of both are less than 0.0%. For the umpteenth time, the FCC has made it absolutely clear (and Congress has said nothing about the subject) that 54-72 and 76-88 MHz will remain allocated for television use, and only television use.

One thing I've learned over the decades is to "never say never." AM on FM translators was a concept rooted in fantasy fifteen and twenty years ago. I was one of those who would have said that would happen "when pigs fly."

And with the TV spectrum auction receiving less than stellar attention by the cellular industry, down to 84 MHz from the original 126 MHz, the need to preserve low band VHF spectrum has diminished. There's a strong chance that radio-friendly Ajit Pai may be the new head of the FCC with the advent of the Trump administration. I think there's a chance that 82 - 88 MHz to radio may get a passing mention at the FCC in the next few years. Not a very strong chance, but more than zero.
 
I think there's a chance that 82 - 88 MHz to radio may get a passing mention at the FCC in the next few years. Not a very strong chance, but more than zero.

If it did, chances for its success would be very low...because the consumer electronics industry would have to manufacture new radios, and the public would have to find a reason to buy them. The last time that happened was HD Radio...you see how successful that was, and there was a lot more enthusiasm for radio-only devices 15 years ago.

But consider that Pai was the guy who proposed the current AM revitalization plan, and even he didn't include 82-88.
 
If I recall correctly, the first quasi-translator for an AM was in WAMB-1. William Barry that owned WAMB in the Nashville market was getting beat up at night by a Cuban station. For 5 years he wrote a letter a day to the FCC and finally the FCC caved and gave him a translator that could operate sunset to sunrise at, I think 75 watts. As I recall, he ran a beautiful music format on it, sponsored by a single business that got a spot every quarter hour. Many years passed until one AM requested an FM translator and it was granted. Seems that station was in an southern east coastal state like North Carolina or South Carolina. That lead to the rulemaking allowing AMs to have a FM counterpart.

I cannot see an expanded FM dial at this point but we are rapidly reaching the point where new frequency auctions are typically in the most rural and undesired places (ie: a C2 in a town of 800 with no other town within 60 miles...a place where a for-profit newspaper can't make it). It seems an expanded FM band would need a requirement that manufacturers include the band on all radios and even then, it would be a challenge on the roll out. It seems more like that place between a rock and a hard place.
 
Perhaps a full re-dedication of 82 - 88 MHz to radio may be venturing too far away from the trunk. But a step onto that branch by authorizing 87.5, 87.7 and 87.9 MHz, shared with current RF TV channel 6 operations might have a remote chance at discussion in the new administration's FCC.

Without a doubt, further expansion into TV channel 6 territory would be a long-term project, as was the expansion of AM up to 1700 kHz. And there is also the question of whether the 21st century marketplace would even support such an expansion.

More likely than 82 - 88 MHz radio expansion, or creating an FM C4 class, is the abolishment of mileage separation rules for 92 - 108 MHz in favor of contour protection. That won't happen until hell freezes over, or at least until there's a freeze on new allocations in the FM band while the FCC figures out where they want to go with AM on FM translators or de-commissioning a FEW of the AMs in favor of FM as in the Canadian example (which won't likely be an option except for the smallest of the AM herd.)
 
Perhaps a full re-dedication of 82 - 88 MHz to radio may be venturing too far away from the trunk. But a step onto that branch by authorizing 87.5, 87.7 and 87.9 MHz, shared with current RF TV channel 6 operations might have a remote chance at discussion in the new administration's FCC.

The first issue to address is that 87.5-87.9 an expansion of the non-commercial educational band. So what that would mean is more religious stations for EMF. Is that really what you'd like to see?

Given the recent mandates of the FCC, if they would even consider this idea, it would NOT be for traditional commercial broadcasting at all, but probably minority non-commercial ownership. I see no possibility of the FCC devoting more spectrum space for traditional commercial broadcasting.
 
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I think one needs to also consider the number of choices versus economic viability. It is possible to split listening so many ways among so many stations that it is not possible except for a very few, to earn the dollars needed to keep their station afloat. I know I was looking at a station in one smaller community until I realized the revenue being split by another media option would hurt the ability of existing media to serve the area as well as it did (and the existing AM/FM combo and newspaper did outstanding jobs serving their listeners and readers). Plainly put, creating another slice in the pie would mean there was just not enough for everyone. Expanding the FM band and changing rules adds to the number of stations which is not a bad thing but you'll reach the point eventually that everyone will suffer. The biggest markets can likely handle it but in smaller markets, probably not. When you're a city of 100,000 with 20 to 25 local signals, it is really hard to get the revenue. Don't get me wrong. I'm all for opportunity and free enterprise but I realize when a place can only generate so much revenue, it can only be split so many ways until the stations suffer and the listeners get less than they expect because of it.
 
I think one needs to also consider the number of choices versus economic viability.

I agree. Personally I believe there are far more stations on the FM band than are economically viable. Adding more stations makes those already there less valuable. That's what led to ownership deregulation in 1996.
 
The first issue to address is that 87.5-87.9 an expansion of the non-commercial educational band. So what that would mean is more religious stations for EMF. Is that really what you'd like to see?

I think that's far from being a given just because of 87.5-87.9 being adjacent to the non-comm band. Remember most FrankenFMs operate commercially.

Given the recent mandates of the FCC, if they would even consider this idea, it would NOT be for traditional commercial broadcasting at all, but probably minority non-commercial ownership. I see no possibility of the FCC devoting more spectrum space for traditional commercial broadcasting.

Minority non-comms, maybe. I think the primary use for 87.5-87.9 would be as a safety valve for displaced translators and LPFMs that get pushed off by full power expansion. With many of the major cities already with FrankenFM LPTVs, the safety valve wouldn't be available for those areas that need it most.
 
I think that's far from being a given just because of 87.5-87.9 being adjacent to the non-comm band. Remember most FrankenFMs operate commercially.



Minority non-comms, maybe. I think the primary use for 87.5-87.9 would be as a safety valve for displaced translators and LPFMs that get pushed off by full power expansion. With many of the major cities already with FrankenFM LPTVs, the safety valve wouldn't be available for those areas that need it most.

The FCC is still expected to sew shut the FrankenFM loophole at some point, isn't it?
 
Raycom, Sinclair, Cox, Hearst, Media General, Nexstar, Scripps, Tenga, Tribune will now face more scrutiny over local tv and alleged bias after Politico and Washington Post reported on an alleged deal between The incoming Trump administration and Sinclair over exclusive interviews.

For those of you who live Los Angeles, New York, Chicago , Philadelphia and San Francisco. These companies mentioned above control the majority of network contracts and mainly serve mid sized and smaller markets. Also I heard stuff that Sinclair is more biased to RNC politicians than even Fox owned television stations.
 
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