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2019 Television Predictions

Read the headline from Fortune and one would believe everything's coming up roses for OTA TV:

Why Old-Fashioned, Over-The Air TV is Booming

But actually reading the article reveals that 40% of the OTA audience are what I'll characterize as "techno-laggards": Median age 55, and watch no other video services from the internet. Per the article, only about 20% of this group have an internet connection and devices capable of streaming video. They watch over(Then there's me, who isn't able to find anything worth watching on Netflix to save my 55+ year-old self) The other 60% is comprised of the more techno-savvy, median age 36, and most of this group have online video accessibility.

The homes without online video accessibility watch nearly five hours of OTA TV daily. Those with online video accessibility average only about an hour and a half per day.

Seems to me that locally generated content is rapidly becoming the main thing sustaining OTA TV stations. And the trendline for viewing will keep skewing lower, no matter how much I don't like to see it.
 
joebtsflk1 said:
Read the headline from Fortune and one would believe everything's coming up roses for OTA TV:

Why Old-Fashioned, Over-The Air TV is Booming

But actually reading the article reveals that 40% of the OTA audience are what I'll characterize as "techno-laggards": Median age 55, and watch no other video services from the internet. Per the article, only about 20% of this group have an internet connection and devices capable of streaming video. They watch over(Then there's me, who isn't able to find anything worth watching on Netflix to save my 55+ year-old self) The other 60% is comprised of the more techno-savvy, median age 36, and most of this group have online video accessibility.

The homes without online video accessibility watch nearly five hours of OTA TV daily. Those with online video accessibility average only about an hour and a half per day.

Seems to me that locally generated content is rapidly becoming the main thing sustaining OTA TV stations. And the trendline for viewing will keep skewing lower, no matter how much I don't like to see it.
Click to expand...

Just a comment as an over 55 person...I wish I was still 55! I don't consider myself a "techno-laggard," nor am I particularly an early adopter of new tech. But I stream content almost exclusively now. Amazon Prime and NetFlix have some brilliant content, with Hulu and CBS All Access not far behind. There's not enough time to watch all the original series that are being streamed, so I certainly don't have the time to watch the inferior content of the Big 4 networks. Unless there is some huge breaking local news event, I have no need for local stations, either - I get most of my news from internet websites, and a bit of NPR here and there, though increasingly, even my NPR content is from podcasts, so I can time-shift shows like Fresh Air.

I have cut the cord - dropped DirecTV over a year ago, and saved $100 per month in the process. OTA TV is basically dead to me. I don't even care enough to get one of those new OTA antennas. What for? I'd probably only use it a few times per year.
 
My 2019 predictions

Some Netflix shows will be in syndication(such as Stranger Things, House of Cards, etc)
Amazon will buy shopping channel Evine and relaunch as Amazon TV.
A&E's fyi network will shut down sometime this year.
WGN America will relaunch under a new name now that Tribune is in the process of being sold to Nexstar.
ABC to end Gray's Anatomy after the 2019-20 season
ABC to broadcast Monday Night Football for the first half of the season, while ESPN keeps the second half.
Al Michaels to announce his retirement after the 2019 NFL season on SNF.
Verizon will buy Dish Network
AT&T explores at purchasing SiriusXM, making it a major media juggernaut in addition to ownership of Warner
Brothers properties as well as DirecTV.
 
CurtisNEPA said:
Amazon will buy shopping channel Evine and relaunch as Amazon TV.
Click to expand...

This makes sense, as it would bring older folks, technophobes of all ages, and the lonely fixed-income shut-ins who now make up much of home shopping's user base over to Amazon without needing to teach them how to use a computer or smart phone. But why target an obscure channel like Evine? QVC and HSN are the widely recognized brands in this sector. Go after one of them.
 
CurtisNEPA said:
My 2019 predictions

Some Netflix shows will be in syndication(such as Stranger Things, House of Cards, etc)
Amazon will buy shopping channel Evine and relaunch as Amazon TV.
A&E's fyi network will shut down sometime this year.
WGN America will relaunch under a new name now that Tribune is in the process of being sold to Nexstar.
ABC to end Gray's Anatomy after the 2019-20 season
ABC to broadcast Monday Night Football for the first half of the season, while ESPN keeps the second half.
Al Michaels to announce his retirement after the 2019 NFL season on SNF.
Verizon will buy Dish Network
AT&T explores at purchasing SiriusXM, making it a major media juggernaut in addition to ownership of Warner
Brothers properties as well as DirecTV.
Click to expand...

I wouldn’t invest much money on some of those bets. :)
 
CurtisNEPA said:
My 2019 predictions

Some Netflix shows will be in syndication(such as Stranger Things, House of Cards, etc)
Click to expand...

Not arguing with your prediction, you could be right, but who would want to watch these shows, censored, and cut up with commercials added?

I tried watching one of The Sopranos episodes, when it ran in syndication on what of my local stations. Awful, just awful.
 
Tonight's Super Bowl on CBS will be the lowest-rated in history, not helped by fan boycotts in New Orleans (still angry over the alleged no-call in the NFC title game) and St. Louis (seething over the loss of the Rams after the 2015 season).

And I'll go on a limb and say Patriots win again--and at least one fan starts charging that the Saints no-call incident in the NFC championship was designed in the end to help the Patriots eventually "cheat" their way to another Super Bowl title.

Likewise, the Super Bowl will have the lowest ratings of all network shows in the NO and STL markets.
 
Tim from Springfield said:
Tonight's Super Bowl on CBS will be the lowest-rated in history, not helped by fan boycotts in New Orleans (still angry over the alleged no-call in the NFC title game) and St. Louis (seething over the loss of the Rams after the 2015 season).

And I'll go on a limb and say Patriots win again--and at least one fan starts charging that the Saints no-call incident in the NFC championship was designed in the end to help the Patriots eventually "cheat" their way to another Super Bowl title.

Likewise, the Super Bowl will have the lowest ratings of all network shows in the NO and STL markets.
Click to expand...

The total population of the two DMAs you mention is just about 1.1% of the US population... even if nobody watched in either market, it would have no discernible effect on the national ratings.

On the other hand, LA being a contender this time adds a DMA with 16 million people, about 5% of the US population. The gain is greater than the loss.

And the Superbowl is an event. It gets huge ratings, and will likely do so to a greater extent this year as tv ratings for the season have been good and higher than past seasons.
 
Tim from Springfield said:
And I'll go on a limb and say Patriots win again--and at least one fan starts charging that the Saints no-call incident in the NFC championship was designed in the end to help the Patriots eventually "cheat" their way to another Super Bowl title.
Click to expand...
A YouTube video of said fan will be posted after the game ends in 3...2...1...
 
Many US Pro Sports Teams - MLB Teams in particular will either co-own, or outright own their own regional sports cable channels. The Yankees are expected to take full control of YES by the start of this season. Liberty Media, the owners of the Atlanta want to get their hands on at least Fox Sports South and Southeast, and have just put their bids in. MLB wants as many relevant RSN's as possible to quickly craft channels centered around teams such as The LA Anaheim Angels, San Diego Padres, Detroit Tigers, etc. Depending on how it all shakes out, it may inspire companies like Comcast to re-brand their own RSN's around individual teams.
 
CaliRadioFan said:
Many US Pro Sports Teams - MLB Teams in particular will either co-own, or outright own their own regional sports cable channels.
Click to expand...

The problem with this, and YES is an example, is what to program for the six months of the year when there is no baseball? Most of the Fox channels have combined baseball with hockey and basketball to fill the winter months. I doubt we'll see the NHL or the NBA putting in bids for the RSNs. But it might create a situation where those two leagues are looking for alternatives where they're not beholden to some other sport.
 
YES has most Brooklyn Nets Basketball Games, and New York City FC Soccer Games, both competitive teams in their leagues. With just as much pre and post game coverage they give to the Yankees. I don't see this changing once said team takes full control of YES.
 
CaliRadioFan said:
YES has most Brooklyn Nets Basketball Games, and New York City FC Soccer Games, both competitive teams in their leagues. With just as much pre and post game coverage they give to the Yankees. I don't see this changing once said team takes full control of YES.
Click to expand...

NBC Sports Boston is in a much worse situation. The Bruins and Red Sox are on NESN, leaving NBCSB with only the Celtics, the Revolution (joke of a franchise with ownership that doesn't care and no fan base) and a lot of who-cares college sports in the nation's worst college sports market. Summers are desolate, can't imagine anyone watching.
 
CaliRadioFan said:
YES has most Brooklyn Nets Basketball Games, and New York City FC Soccer Games, both competitive teams in their leagues. With just as much pre and post game coverage they give to the Yankees. I don't see this changing once said team takes full control of YES.
Click to expand...

Once again, it depends on how this plays out. At one time, the Nets were part owners of YES. So that's how they got involved. Then Fox kept that relationship. If the Yankees are 100% owners, that will change the relationship.
 
Pohld who owns the Twins wants to buy networks. SYN shows Mets. Liberty,2 MLS Teams in New York same with Sabres in Buffalo. Also have Rangers,Islanders. FSN North in IL has Bulls,White Sox and so on. Sun Sports is different in Florida. FSN KC has Royals/Blues but not Cardinals. FSN Midwest Plus Thunder and says in listing Grizzles and so on but don't get their games.
 
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TheBigA said:
Once again, it depends on how this plays out. At one time, the Nets were part owners of YES. So that's how they got involved. Then Fox kept that relationship. If the Yankees are 100% owners, that will change the relationship.
Click to expand...
YES signed a long term team to broadcast Nets games. The Yankees won't own 100%, they can't afford it, they will probably own 51% with Amazon taking the rest.

Even when YES launched in 2002, the Yankees only owned 70% of the network, the rest was in hedge funds. They currently own 20%.
 
Mgomrjsurf said:
Also TBS never had Newscast or Hawks or Flames Games. WGN had Bulls and White Sox Games before to but not Blackhawks,Sky,Fire.
Click to expand...

Just saw this post now and had to respond. WTCG/WTBS carried Hawks and Flames games in its early years on satellite and had newscasts, although they were brief and sometimes done as a goof rather than as serious news.
 
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