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2025 Seattle Radio Predictions

50 years ago, we got $40 per spot and that was low compared to others in the market!
What market was that? I would imagine that a station whose primary target is Snohomish County cannot charge as much as those targeting the entire Puget Sound region. As there is no station specifically aimed at Vancouver, I would have to advertise on the Portland stations, and it wouldn't surprise me if they quoted me $40 per spot at the cheapest.
 
What market was that? I would imagine that a station whose primary target is Snohomish County cannot charge as much as those targeting the entire Puget Sound region. As there is no station specifically aimed at Vancouver, I would have to advertise on the Portland stations, and it wouldn't surprise me if they quoted me $40 per spot at the cheapest.
Portland. $40 was the highest but I believe the low was $30. It seems like some people were asking for $20 but management wouldn't budge. The point is, it was 50 years ago and we were talking about $12 now!
 
I'm not going to argue about what stations are charging today Vs. 40 years ago with incomplete information, but my question is still valid. If a station charges one amount, whether that be $12, $30, $40, or $240 per spot to a nonprofit organization, it's my understanding that they have to charge that amount to political advertisers. Although I wasn't involved with the negotiations with the station, I was under the impression that we were getting a discount because we were a nonprofit. So, if that's the case, and a normal rate is higher, whether that be $20, $50, $80, or $260 per spot, how is filling your break with political spots at the lower rate going to result in more money than selling the same airtime to the local car dealer, restaurant, or whatever other advertisers exist in the community at a higher rate? About the only way this makes sense to me is if the majority of spots on your station are national or barter. At least in radio, the majority of ads are still local though.
 
I'm not going to argue about what stations are charging today Vs. 40 years ago with incomplete information, but my question is still valid. If a station charges one amount, whether that be $12, $30, $40, or $240 per spot to a nonprofit organization, it's my understanding that they have to charge that amount to political advertisers. Although I wasn't involved with the negotiations with the station, I was under the impression that we were getting a discount because we were a nonprofit. So, if that's the case, and a normal rate is higher, whether that be $20, $50, $80, or $260 per spot, how is filling your break with political spots at the lower rate going to result in more money than selling the same airtime to the local car dealer, restaurant, or whatever other advertisers exist in the community at a higher rate? About the only way this makes sense to me is if the majority of spots on your station are national or barter. At least in radio, the majority of ads are still local though.
As I recall and it's been a long time, stations were required to take incoming political ads!
 
Okay, so then why does everyone make such a big deal out of political ad revenue? If there are in fact more expensive spots that air on a daily basis, then it seems like stations would absolutely hate having to air political ads because it means less money for them. All the reports I've seen though imply the exact opposite though.
 
Political is at LUR (lowest unit rate) and not all candidates and initiatives qualify for that rate- some pay more if they want to be on.
Regular advertisers pay that same rate or higher (nothing lower) and give up bonus spots during the political window in order for their spots to clear.
The sheer volume of political ads more than makes up for any loss on the regular ad side. Its a gift every 2 to 4 years depending and if you are in a swing state or hot races then it's a giant wet kiss.

$40 is not even close to what you pay for a ad spot in a drive time period Portland or Seattle today - try 2 to 4x that
 
Seems like Zooman in Post #13 nailed it.
Well, I had predicted a format flip at 98.9 about this time of year, and that didn't happen. For 2026, I'm moving away from the flip watch at 98.9, turning that focus to either 94.1 or 103.7. Both have high cume numbers but terrible shares. I can't imagine Audacy being happy with either of them, and they blew up Bella in Portland this year.
 
Well, I had predicted a format flip at 98.9 about this time of year, and that didn't happen. For 2026, I'm moving away from the flip watch at 98.9, turning that focus to either 94.1 or 103.7. Both have high cume numbers but terrible shares. I can't imagine Audacy being happy with either of them, and they blew up Bella in Portland this year.
Format flips are not free, at least if you are doing them "right" and giving them a chance to succeed. Due to that fact, and due to the amount of money available in markets these days for radio, I think format flips will be fewer and fewer. Maybe you will see more tweaks, adjustments, and edits of positioning statements, but fewer wholesale format changes.

Unless it is a purchase and flip to religious and/or Spanish language programing.

We only see the wholesale numbers for these stations- it may be that 103.7 does great with a certain saleable demographic. Or Emma does well in certain key demos. We just don't know as outsiders.
 
When Star was in its heyday, I don't think public cume numbers were available, so I have no idea what the cume on 94.1 is in comparison to what it was on 101.5 say 10 years ago. Both Emma and Hot have sizeable audiences, but the many listeners they have aren't sticking around long. If I were Audacy, I'd figure out why that is. Perhaps Hot should add a few more currents, as there's no current hip-hop-based station in the market.
 
Unless you have access to all the numbers in a ratting book. You have no idea how 94.1 is actually performing for Audacy as it relates the Seattle cluster. Since Audacy has access to this information, I'm sure they are aware how 94.1 is performing and how it contributes to their Seattle cluster.

You don't judge the stations in a cluster individually. You judge them in how they contribute to the overall bottom line. The 6+ numbers don't allow much depth into that.
 
Political is at LUR (lowest unit rate) and not all candidates and initiatives qualify for that rate- some pay more if they want to be on.
Regular advertisers pay that same rate or higher (nothing lower) and give up bonus spots during the political window in order for their spots to clear.
The sheer volume of political ads more than makes up for any loss on the regular ad side. Its a gift every 2 to 4 years depending and if you are in a swing state or hot races then it's a giant wet kiss.
…and depending on where you are, political ads got charged at the highest ad rate (I know, a big no-no, but the statute of limitations has expired and it was small town radio). And the politicians were more than happy to pay!

Only organizations that got ROS rates year round were the state lottery and the local farmers co-op.
 
It would be a spactacularly bad idea to mess with Hot 103.7. Improved with tweaks? Maybe. I'm not a listener so I wouldn't know. As of today, there is no other source for hip-hop (classic or current) in the market. While the format may not be viable enough on more than one station in the market (as witnessed when KUBE was still around), it's an attractive format for a company that has no competition.
 


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