560

[michael hagerty]

Well of course not. Like I ended a post earlier by saying....a person can still dream, right? What's wrong with that?

Sometimes, I think we talke things too seriously around here.

I don't disagree, but here's the thing....sometimes it's not the pros (or retired pros) taking it too seriously----it's people taking seriously ideas that can't work for a lot of very good reasons---and that's how we end up with 1,000-post threads about something pretty simple:


Cumulus couldn't find a buyer, took 560 silent and now has 56 days left (out of a whole year) to either do that or give back the ticket.


I figured you were joking. It looked like cc333 might not have.

 

[Kemosabe]

My error (from not double-checking) was thinking that Fog City was renamed. In fact, it closed and sits vacant.

Trivia question: What name appeared on the "reserved for" nameplate at a booth near the Fog City entrance?

 

[cc333]

It looked like cc333 might not have.

No, I wasn't joking.

I pretty much have to agree that if Cumulus, after 300+ days, hasn't found a buyer, it's not terribly likely that they will within the next two months or so, so KZAC will most likely be deleted and 560 will be dark forever.

But, as @KilowattKat said, one can dream....

c

 

[KilowattKat]

I don't disagree, but here's the thing....sometimes it's not the pros (or retired pros) taking it too seriously----it's people taking seriously ideas that can't work for a lot of very good reasons---and that's how we end up with 1,000-post threads about something pretty simple:


Cumulus couldn't find a buyer, took 560 silent and now has 56 days left (out of a whole year) to either do that or give back the ticket.


I figured you were joking. It looked like cc333 might not have.

56 days left of 560, how coincidental...

And yes, we all know how this story is going to end. It's just a matter of signing the death certificate.

 

[Mark Roberts]

I don't disagree, but here's the thing....sometimes it's not the pros (or retired pros) taking it too seriously----it's people taking seriously ideas that can't work for a lot of very good reasons---and that's how we end up with 1,000-post threads about something pretty simple:

I think people find it hard to accept that a property with substantial coverage in one of the largest markets in the country would simply go defunct. Even recognizing the reality of radio in 2026, it still seems a waste. But the probability is pretty strong that the Armstrong and Getty loop was the last thing heard on 560. The standard economic model of commercial radio just won't work for it.

There isn't a Berkeley Daily Gazette any more, either.

Berkeley Gazette folds after 107 years - UPI Archives

The 107-year-old Berkeley Gazette has published its final edition....

www.upi.com

Cumulus couldn't find a buyer, took 560 silent and now has 56 days left (out of a whole year) to either do that or give back the ticket.

Cumulus couldn't find a buyer for the price that it wanted.

Since this is an illiquid market, the value of one's other properties are only as good as the last sale price for a comparable property. Cumulus could have offered 560 for sale for, say, ten dollars, but then imagine what that would have done to the value of its other AM properties, not exactly elevated to begin with.

I still think there are plausible scenarios (I described one earlier in this thread), but I admit the probability that they will happen is low. Even so, people like a good cliffhanger. This might not be a good cliffhanger, but it is one.

 

[michael hagerty]

Since this is an illiquid market, the value of one's other properties are only as good as the last sale price for a comparable property. Cumulus could have offered 560 for sale for, say, ten dollars, but then imagine what that would have done to the value of its other AM properties, not exactly elevated to begin with.

This. All day long, this.

At some point (if they aren't already), Cumulus is going to be trying to sell 810 and unless they're going to be the last broadcast company in America (unlikely), 680 too. By simply turning in the license for 560, they're at the very least not creating a comp that drives those prices down.

Although, to be honest with you, having an 0.7 on 810 with a format that used to do a 1.8 on 560 a year ago, it wouldn't surprise me to see them take 810 dark the moment revenue can no longer provide a sufficient profit.

 

[michael hagerty]

Trivia question: What name appeared on the "reserved for" nameplate at a booth near the Fog City entrance?

No clue. I had dinner at Fog City exactly once, sometime back in the 90s, after a long, tiring day and a very cold 10:00 p.m. live shot for Phoenix from the roof at KPIX. Great burger, good bartender and cushy booth.

 

[michael hagerty]

I said something like this a month or so ago and it got derailed by people who couldn't get the point if they had to, so let me take another shot at it:

If 610 had simply gone dark and had its license turned in in 2005, would your life be any different or poorer today? Don't give me, "well, Family Radio would still be on 106.9....". If 610 had just gone dark instead of changing to Family Radio, would it make any meaningful difference in your listening habits? Today. Not the day after they did that and you'd been listening to the AM 31 years ago.

No. Neither will 560 not coming back on the air.

It's not a shame. It's not something that's wrong that needs to be fixed. I mean, you could argue that Cumulus f***ed up and turned off the wrong radio station---that they should have left 560 alone with its 1.8 and taken 810 and its 0.2 dark, but dear God, this thread would be twice as long if we were talking about 810 being dark for ten months and thisclose to turning in the license.

What happened here has been happening in the Bay Area for 40 years---listeners are listening to AM less and less and less and now---after four decades of the economic equivalent of wind and water, the advertising revenue has eroded to the point that there isn't much to do with an AM signal other than satellite-delivered right-wing talk radio (especially when the same company already has sports covered).

Actually, that was 20 years ago. It's just gotten worse since then---to the point that the highest-rated standalone AM a year ago drew a 1.8. And now, on a stronger signal, the same programming with the same branding draws a 0.7.

An observation from decades in the business:

80% of the people who freak out over a legendary station's format or call letter change are people who haven't listened to the station in at least five years. I've seen it time and again.

"That's outrageous! They can't do that! They're number one!"

"No, they're number 17."

"Well, when did that happen?"

"They fell out of the top ten five years ago. When did you listen last?"

"Um---about five years ago."

If----BIG if----someone came along and offered Cumulus just enough money to transfer the license for 560 instead of surrendering it, what are the odds that what they put on that signal is anything you'd ever listen to for the limited number of years before the new owner surrenders to the inevitable and realizes that there's no there there on AM radio in San Francisco anymore?

 

[ILOVERADIO]

This. All day long, this.

At some point (if they aren't already), Cumulus is going to be trying to sell 810 and unless they're going to be the last broadcast company in America (unlikely), 680 too. By simply turning in the license for 560, they're at the very least not creating a comp that drives those prices down.

Although, to be honest with you, having an 0.7 on 810 with a format that used to do a 1.8 on 560 a year ago, it wouldn't surprise me to see them take 810 dark the moment revenue can no longer provide a sufficient profit.

Do station like KSFO pay for non-Cumulus shows like Armstrong and Getty, or do they just have to run some A & G commercials?

 

[michael hagerty]

Do station like KSFO pay for non-Cumulus shows like Armstrong and Getty, or do they just have to run some A & G commercials?

I don’t know what the deal structure is. There’s a third possibility: A combination of cash and advertising time.

 

[Mark Roberts]

At some point (if they aren't already), Cumulus is going to be trying to sell 810 and unless they're going to be the last broadcast company in America (unlikely), 680 too. By simply turning in the license for 560, they're at the very least not creating a comp that drives those prices down.

Although, to be honest with you, having an 0.7 on 810 with a format that used to do a 1.8 on 560 a year ago, it wouldn't surprise me to see them take 810 dark the moment revenue can no longer provide a sufficient profit.

I suspect 810's raison d'être these days...as it was for 560...is to clear talk shows in the San Francisco market. "See, we're in San Francisco!" Some of that stuff might appeal to a South Bay libertarian crowd; otherwise, whether it gets much of an audience isn't all that consequential in the short term.

At the same time, Cumulus isn't in a position where it can run a loss leader for long. Maybe whatever they get for Cal sports keeps 810 afloat, since it's clearly a low-overhead, low-return operation. There's also the incentive of not wanting to chop too much off the cluster: if Cumulus shuts down all its AMs in the market, it's left with two FMs. If it shut down every AM except KNBR, that would be equivalent. If either scenario happens, I'd expect to see an exit for the FMs, too, and the market for doing that isn't promising.

 

[Kemosabe]

Trivia question: What name appeared on the "reserved for" nameplate at a booth near the Fog City entrance?

No clue. I had dinner at Fog City exactly once, sometime back in the 90s, after a long, tiring day and a very cold 10:00 p.m. live shot for Phoenix from the roof at KPIX. Great burger, good bartender and cushy booth.

As a diner in-joke, the booth nearest the door was "reserved for Ed Debevic." Ever eaten at Ed's?

 

[michael hagerty]

As a diner in-joke, the booth nearest the door was "reserved for Ed Debevic." Ever eaten at Ed's?

Sure I have. There was one on La Cienega in L.A. that was open when a photog and I needed dinner after a 10:00 p.m. Phoenix live shot----and then a few month later, they opened in Phoenix.

I especially liked the sign on the gates that hid the dumpster from view at the Phoenix location: "The food's better inside!"

 

[ted chittenden]

I said something like this a month or so ago and it got derailed by people who couldn't get the point if they had to, so let me take another shot at it:

If 610 had simply gone dark and had its license turned in in 2005, would your life be any different or poorer today? Don't give me, "well, Family Radio would still be on 106.9....". If 610 had just gone dark instead of changing to Family Radio, would it make any meaningful difference in your listening habits? Today. Not the day after they did that and you'd been listening to the AM 31 years ago.

No. Neither will 560 not coming back on the air.

It's not a shame. It's not something that's wrong that needs to be fixed. I mean, you could argue that Cumulus f***ed up and turned off the wrong radio station---that they should have left 560 alone with its 1.8 and taken 810 and its 0.2 dark, but dear God, this thread would be twice as long if we were talking about 810 being dark for ten months and thisclose to turning in the license.

What happened here has been happening in the Bay Area for 40 years---listeners are listening to AM less and less and less and now---after four decades of the economic equivalent of wind and water, the advertising revenue has eroded to the point that there isn't much to do with an AM signal other than satellite-delivered right-wing talk radio (especially when the same company already has sports covered).

Actually, that was 20 years ago. It's just gotten worse since then---to the point that the highest-rated standalone AM a year ago drew a 1.8. And now, on a stronger signal, the same programming with the same branding draws a 0.7.

An observation from decades in the business:

80% of the people who freak out over a legendary station's format or call letter change are people who haven't listened to the station in at least five years. I've seen it time and again.

"That's outrageous! They can't do that! They're number one!"

"No, they're number 17."

"Well, when did that happen?"

"They fell out of the top ten five years ago. When did you listen last?"

"Um---about five years ago."

If----BIG if----someone came along and offered Cumulus just enough money to transfer the license for 560 instead of surrendering it, what are the odds that what they put on that signal is anything you'd ever listen to for the limited number of years before the new owner surrenders to the inevitable and realizes that there's no there there on AM radio in San Francisco anymore?

While I agree with most of what you say, I think that we all should be reminded that both San Francisco and its surrounding markets are politically very liberal. And with an administration that is hurting a lot of people with its (okay opinion) far right policies, what are the chances that there are enough people left in the city of San Francisco and it surrounding areas willing to both listen to conservative talk show hosts and purchase products hawked by those same talk show hosts over the air to make the format worthwhile. I note that the station at 1450 kHz (KEST, if I remember the callsign correctly) dropped the format several years (maybe over a decade back) and is now running Asian fare (though I haven't checked to see how well that one is doing in the current ratings environment).

 

[michael hagerty]

While I agree with most of what you say, I think that we all should be reminded that both San Francisco and its surrounding markets are politically very liberal. And with an administration that is hurting a lot of people with its (okay opinion) far right policies, what are the chances that there are enough people left in the city of San Francisco and it surrounding areas willing to both listen to conservative talk show hosts and purchase products hawked by those same talk show hosts over the air to make the format worthwhile.

If you're suggesting that KSFO went from a 1.8 to a 0.7 in the space of a year because the conservative listeners in December of 2024 have gradually and consistently grown consciences and abandoned ship, I'd have to say that's really unlikely.

 

[ted chittenden]

If you're suggesting that KSFO went from a 1.8 to a 0.7 in the space of a year because the conservative listeners in December of 2024 have gradually and consistently grown consciences and abandoned ship, I'd have to say that's really unlikely.

Another possible (but unlikely) explanation is that they all just moved away. I think the most likely explanations are that 1) conservatives have traded in their radio listening for podcast and Internet radio listening (discussed above) and 2) the audience was never that big to begin with and the cost for serving the small (and diminishing) audience was unjustifiable.

 

[michael hagerty]

Another possible (but unlikely) explanation is that they all just moved away. I think the most likely explanations are that 1) conservatives have traded in their radio listening for podcast and Internet radio listening (discussed above) and 2) the audience was never that big to begin with and the cost for serving the small (and diminishing) audience was unjustifiable.

Or a big bird could have just swooped down and carried them all off.

None of which matters.

The point---before we lose that again---is that the highest-rated AM without a simulcast in the Bay Area has a 0.7. There is very little listening (and thus very little tuning around) on the AM dial.

 

[Kent]

While I agree with most of what you say, I think that we all should be reminded that both San Francisco and its surrounding markets are politically very liberal. And with an administration that is hurting a lot of people with its (okay opinion) far right policies, what are the chances that there are enough people left in the city of San Francisco and it surrounding areas willing to both listen to conservative talk show hosts and purchase products hawked by those same talk show hosts over the air to make the format worthwhile.

While the San Francisco market is definitely liberal politically, it has about 1,000,000 registered Republican voters (out of a 6+ population of roughly 6.6 million). While no station that targets that audience is likely to get a huge share of the listening at any point in time, that's nothing to sneeze at in a market where stations with 1.5 shares can be quite profitable.

KSFO's problems aren't that the available audience is too small. That 1,000,000 Republican voters is roughly double the market's African American population and 2/3 of the Hispanic audience. Contra Costa and Santa Clara Counties have about as many Republicans as the entire market has African Americans.

 

[SCMcKinney]

Just an idea, that may be more appropriate for stations that are not as far gone into the hole as 560 was allowed to fall into... But for stations with a decent signal, intact studios, and maybe their own tower, would simply entertaining people be something? The programming has to be cheap, which got me to thinking about all of that Old Time Radio that is at the Internet Archive. If it is there free for the downloading, would it be safe to assume the copyright holders, if they exist, do not care anymore? While it is certainly possible for anyone to download any show they want, when they want, and there are in fact several websites that make this easy, what radio could do is make it REAL easy, by putting up a schedule of shows, that people could listen to by just turning on a button. While a lot of this programming is dated, many shows I see at the Internet Archive could be considered timeless. Science Fiction, Radio Plays of Famous Books, Radio Plays of Classic Movies are some of them. Then there are dated shows that are classics in themselves - The Jack Benny and Your Money or Your Life episode (I'm Thinking It Over). This would appeal to older audiences, but that is who is listening to AM radio anyway, so play to your audience. It might be inexpensive to try, and for stations that are left being the third or fourth sports talker in town, it might get better ratings.

 

[davideduardo]

Another possible (but unlikely) explanation is that they all just moved away. I think the most likely explanations are that 1) conservatives have traded in their radio listening for podcast and Internet radio listening (discussed above) and 2) the audience was never that big to begin with and the cost for serving the small (and diminishing) audience was unjustifiable.

Simpler version: the change in frequency was not done well enough for the older listeners to understand and act.