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Ahhh The Fall Book

D

djdan

Ahhh. The Fall book is out and a sale in the market and this board lights up. Always good reading. Let's see what we have:

1. Christmas Music is stronger than ever and KRWM jumps to number one (double digit numbers in December phase). Who got hurt in December? The usual stations KPLZ, KMPS, KWJZ. (Before you count KMPS down, let see what happens when their ugly December month goes away)

2. Who is tops in the morning? For women it was about the same as last year in the key 25-54 demo. WARM, Kent and Alan, Icky and Fitz (now virtually tied) own women. Bob Rivers, BJ Shea have the guys. T-Man win again 18-34. Gee
not much change, except an extra country in the mix. Good job WOLF

3. Who are your players overall in women 25-54: WARM, Countries, KPLZ and KCMS on top. For men it was KZOK and KISW way ahead of the pack.

4. Who will flip format? Probably no one. KBSG might, but just because Bonneville likes to put news simulcasts on FM. On the ratings and sales front KBSG looks fine.
KNDD, I doubt it now that Entercom has four male leaning FM's. KNDD fits nicely by providing the younger end and fills out combo buys. KPLZ, probably not. HOT/AC is terrible 12+ across the country, but it delivers women and dollars. Their morning show remains top three in women again, the station is always top five in women. KBKS, maybe, but what would you flip to? They'd be better fixing what they have. JACK, nope. The station has morphed into a male station, but a little younger than KZOK. Nice combo for Infinity. Both Countries look great. Expect KMPS to get some of its older 40-54 end back once Christmas Music is factored out and they will beat WOLF 25-54 and WOLF will beat them 18-34.

5. MOVIN had a nice book, but has been declining since it peaked in August/September. In November/December phase the station didn't even muster a two share. They will need to do something to keep this going in 2007. MOVIN is a huge failure across the country. SF, LA, etc are having no luck. I wonder if MOVIN will post its December trend in R@R, like they did with their June trend. I don't think so!

6. Finally the AM battles. KIRO and KOMO in a dead heat, but neither in the top ten 25-54. KTTH had the best numbers on AM for the second book in a row. No one else really in the game.

End of the year on a four book. Zero change in the market, except for the WOLF, which is the solid second country on a four-book and looked good. JACK had the biggest decline of the year on a four book. Everyone else, about the same. 2007 here we come! Where is Iknowitall when you need her?
 
Djdan. At first I thought you were just a jerk sales punk. The more I read your posts the more they make sense. You don't sway with the trends, you look long term. WOLF rocketed to the top, you said wait. WOLF got some bad trends in Summer, you said wait. Now the four book is in and (as I predicted) WOLF is the story of the year in Seattle, tied with KMPS.

I agree with about everything you just posted, believe it or not. I am not so sure KMPS's older women will return in Winter after the Christmas Music effect goes away. You might be right. WOLF is really promoting and KMPS is quiet now, Infinity may be on the ropes. KISS is in the toilet, JACK had a good fall but is off 30% from last year and KMPS is really hurt by WOLF. Bonneville would be dumb to flip KBSG, what a waste of a stick to simulcast, but I know they do it everywhere. The Entercom Group is ROCK SOLID with men. KNDD, KMTT, KISW and WOLF. Up against KZOK and JACK it is NO CONTEST. I am always shocked to see KPLZ's low 12+ and then their big numbers in women. Go figure. Guess that old morning show has some legs still even if it is not my taste. As you always say DJ, 12+ means nothing. MOVIN looked really bad at the end of the book, but that could just be Christmas music on sister station WARM. They look dead, but as you always say, let's see how the four-book shakes out.

IKNOWITALL is gone, but I will predict for the new year:
* WOLF beats KMPS in 2007 on the four book
* KIRO simulcasts on FM and knocks off KOMO
* JACK goes active rock to battle KNDD/KISW and combo with KZOK.
* MOVIN stays automated and is middle of the pack.
* KBKS, under Marcus D, makes some in roads on KUBE. (Mike Preston has killed his station in SF, maybe he was the problem at KBKS. This fall they picked up some ground)
 
Get real. MOVIN was the story of Summer and Fall in Seattle. WOLF did very well, as did JACK. MOVIN had a bad last trend, a fluke during Christmas music on sister station KRWM. The station is adding staff and rolling. KMPS is under attack and now is clearly the number 2 country, the station needs a complete revamp to compete. How STAR is able to hold female numbers is beyond me. That morning show deserves to be put out to pasture, yet it continues to rate with women. Whatever. If the station is satisfied with just females, so be it. MOVIN, JACK, WOLF are grabbing men and women and shooting for number one. Believe me radio geeks, that one share you saw in December means nothing. Things are a changin and this book proves it once again.
 
mammaknowsbest said:
Get real. MOVIN was the story of Summer and Fall in Seattle. WOLF did very well, as did JACK. MOVIN had a bad last trend, a fluke during Christmas music on sister station KRWM. The station is adding staff and rolling. KMPS is under attack and now is clearly the number 2 country, the station needs a complete revamp to compete. How STAR is able to hold female numbers is beyond me. That morning show deserves to be put out to pasture, yet it continues to rate with women. Whatever. If the station is satisfied with just females, so be it. MOVIN, JACK, WOLF are grabbing men and women and shooting for number one. Believe me radio geeks, that one share you saw in December means nothing. Things are a changin and this book proves it once again.
Click to expand...
airwaver said:
.and get MAD!
Click to expand...

No kidding! Someone's a little irritated over their numbers;) Lisa, how do explain Movins' failure all around the country?
 
Congrats to 100.7 The Wolf in Seattle and Congrats to 99.5 The Wolf in Portland for being #1 and being high quality Country stations.

JayF made some comments on why MOVIN is not working say in LA or SF VS Seattle. Let me go further....In LA 93.9 was Country and that is a Demo Compatible format, but not Music compatible (ie the VH1 music spectrum), the SF Movin was Oldies basically...so on both fronts it was not compatible. With Dallas it was not compatible ie older demo and VH1 music spectrum...with Dallas Movin will rebound more quicly because you have 2 Urban ACs on weak rimshot signals and Mix is boring. Also in Dallas Casa sounds great, but they are on a rimshot and the flashback listeners will flock to Movin and already are doing so.

The reason Movin took off so fast in Seattle is because they flipped from a compatible format on both fronts. I'm talking about HOT AC...the most compatible format for the Movin format. The Movin format is still in it's infancy big time and will take time to get it right! The reason Movin had a bad trend in December was due to the fluky Holiday season. My Guess is that they will bounce back big time over the course of the next 3 trends...Movin will be a top 10 performer...about a high 3 to lower 4 share station in the next year...give it time.

The reason the Clear Channel Rythmic ACs are sinking now is the music is way too broad unlike Movin

Movin is on rimshot signals in Salt Lake City, Jacksonville, and Phoenix so that will effect the numbers there on that front. Again let's come back in 1 year and see if the Movin brand is a failure or making significant progress!

KPLZ is still dead!
 
I agree. Let's see what happens a year from now. To pronounce a format a success on a few trends or a failure is not fair. Give MOVIN until next Fall, by then the initial growth months will be gone and so will the down December. KPLZ is dead 12+ maybe, but so are all HOT/AC's. When it comes to women and billing they are quite alive. KMPS is quite alive as well. Let's all see what shakes out in about six months. I wouldn't be changing any media buys just yet.
 
Hmmm...Not all Hot ACs are dead! Some are...some not. Alice in Denver is Alive! 92.9 Zoo in Spokane is quite alive. Star 94 in San Diego and Atlanta are quite alive...Star in Atlanta just had a bad book though. 97.9 WRMF in WPB is quite alive! Wink in Ft Myers is Quite alive.
Those are the exceptions rather than the rule!
 
HOT/AC is dead and has been for some time. No Hot/AC in a top 20 market is in the top 5 12+. Most are two share radio stations, including STAR in Atlanta. A few are on life support thanks to heavy female numbers and old old morning shows. That would include HOT/AC's in Atlanta, SD, Washington DC, Boston, and Seattle. Face it, the format is over. They are living on some female numbers and heritage, nothing more.
 
Country rules Seattle, Portland, Denver and multiple other markets. Many have two stations in the top 5 25-54, including Seattle. Congrats to WOLF. HOT/AC may not do well 12+, but I have friends in Houston at KHMX and that station rules women and is a top biller in the market. It doesn't outbill the Country leaders or AC station, but it does well: with no 12+. STAR 94 is usually one of the top three moneymakers in Atlanta and always has women. STAR in Seattle is kind of in the same damn boat. The station has too many women and too much billing to change.
My bet is KBSG stays in the game as an Oldies station, KPLZ stays a HOT/AC and both make a ton of money for their companies. As for stations that will make money and be number one in ratings, they both have no chance. The battle for number one in this market is now between WOLF, KMPS, KUBE, KRWM and KIRO with the big bucks Bonneville will throw at that news station. Let the battle begin.
 
I assume you are talking about 12+. 25-54 there are about eight stations that have a shot at number one, including both Countries, KZOK, KRWM and even KCMS.

Here is a tip, from a sales guy, look at a station's billing first when determining who will flip. No station in the top ten sales in Seattle will be flipping soon. Billing in the top ten are (not in any particular order) KZOK, KMPS, KUBE, KRWM, KPLZ, KMTT, KIRO, KOMO, KBSG, KISW and WOLF. (there are some ties which is why 11 make the list)

No broadcaster in their right mind would flip any of these. Stations that flip tend to be poor billers like KLSY and the Buzz last year. Stations that make money tend to own a demographic. KZOK is never top five in the market 12+, but own men so they make big bucks. KIRO and KOMO don't have ratings, but AM radio has twice the unit load so it is easier to make dollars. There is more to flipping a station than just a bad book or a desire to simulcast your AM.
 
No kidding! Someone's a little irritated over their numbers;) Lisa, how do explain Movins' failure all around the country?
Click to expand...

I'm not Lisa, but I'd like to refer to you a message posted by Jay F over on the LA board:

=============

http://www.radio-info.com/smf/index.php/topic,60390.0.html

I have another theory on why MOVIN' is only doing good in Seattle and nowhere else (at least so far).

Until 15 years ago there was very little rhythmic music on Seattle radio. Since then KUBE has really been the only one exposing the maket to rhythmic product. Because it hasn't been oversaturated, the gold on MOVIN" is really fresh to Seattle, many of the songs might even have an "oh wow!" factor.

On the other hand, these same rhythmic titles have always been played in markets like LA and SF. Multiple stations have played these songs and still do. An "Oh Wow!" in Seattle could get a "not again, this song is so played out" in California.

=============

That seems to make a lot of sense to me. And now, with KMVN's numbers dropping, it seems that Seattle's listeners are getting past the "oh wow" stage -- they are getting to the "not again, this song is so played out" reaction that the SF/LA listeners had right away.

So, at least in its current incarnation, it seems like MOViN' is a way to spike W25-44 numbers for a book or two in a market that (a) has a relatively small ethnic population and (b) has not had a lot of rhythmic stations over the years.

And for the record, I am not anti-MOViN'. I really love the concept and format...I would say that at least 90% of my local-radio listening goes to my local MOViN' station. I just hope that the powers-that-be find a way to make it work for longer than just a few months.
 
um, what about KUBE early 90's Charlie and Ty and all that Boyz 2 Men, En Vogue, Mariah, ? The "KUBE Summer Jam"? That is what is so great about Movin! Thanks to KUBE-we can listen like we used to listen in the early 90's and to music that is great to grove too without the swearing. It definitely lifts ya up! Didn't KUBE have like a 10 share back then?
 
Since I'm out of market and can't listen directly, I have one question about movin, do they play any of the songs that the old KKFX (K-Fox) used to play? That was a great station back in the 80's
 
Ivy said:
um, what about KUBE early 90's Charlie and Ty and all that Boyz 2 Men, En Vogue, Mariah, ? The "KUBE Summer Jam"? That is what is so great about Movin! Thanks to KUBE-we can listen like we used to listen in the early 90's and to music that is great to grove too without the swearing. It definitely lifts ya up! Didn't KUBE have like a 10 share back then?
Click to expand...

KUBE was acknowledged in my earlier post. But they've pretty much been the ONLY station to focus on rhythmic (R&B/hip-hop) music over the past 15 years...that was my (actually Jay F's) point.

mimo said:
Since I'm out of market and can't listen directly, I have one question about movin, do they play any of the songs that the old KKFX (K-Fox) used to play? That was a great station back in the 80's
Click to expand...

Ahhh, but you CAN listen to the station, if you have a fast enough Internet connection. They have a high-quality stream @ www.movin925.fm
 
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