iyiyi said:
HD's main problem is half-assed marketing strategy.
Television stations ran 2 transmitters each for a decade. One transmitter was analog signal on one channel. The other transmitter ran digital on separate channel. This gave them plenty of opportunity to dick with their signals and get things right. Yet when analog tv finally sunset, many stations suddenly had a first-water epiphany that their digital tv signals sucked. A number of stations scurried for FCC approval to return to UHF and many more applied for sizeable power increases very quickly!
HD radio doesn't have the luxury of 2 separate channels to work with. They had to bootstrap themselves into engineering and programming evolution by literally draping their QAM signal around their analog signal. Regardless, get used to the fact that HD is here to stay...
HD's main problem is that it was a solution to a problem that didn't exist. FM sound is sufficiently good it did not need an upgrade. Contrast that with the digital TV situation - The problems with NTSC television were well documented - all it took was a consumer looking at an HD TV in a store, and they were hooked on the increase in quality the moment they could afford one. But the improvement to FM sound requires a top end stereo system to detect - yet the era of home audiophile tinkerers has passed decades ago. Now people go out, buy a sound system, expect it to configure itself automatically and preferably wirelessly with minimal hassle of connecting wires, etc. If they have a good sound system at all - it is now in the media room to play Blu-Ray audio. The FM section of the receiver is never even turned on - let alone AM. It is lost in a sea of remote control options for DVR, cable box, Blu Ray, video game, and maybe an old VHS.
Bottom line is that HDTV was a big improvement immediately visible and apparent. HD radio noise floor decrease is not noticable on a table radio or typical audio system. And that advantage is lost completely if there happens to be an HD-2.
HD-2 would have been compelling - if there were some sort of creativity and thought given to providing formats not available locally. There is some of that going on, but not compelling enough to consumers. The niche formats are already probably on their iPods, CD, and album collections - or are being streamed. There are so many options the radio monopoly that existed 40 years ago is completely broken. And the quality of those audio sources is so poor most consumers are accustomed to it - so an iPhone with earbuds is the new audio standard. Listen to HD radio through earbuds and you will never hear the difference anyway. So all those HD-2 choices sound just as poor as streaming or an iPod - leading a consumer to shrug off digital as not really an audio upgrade.
As for extra TV digital channels - they were doomed from the start by a government that didn't mandate "must carry" rules for local digital channels. The programming wasn't on cable, which is 90% of viewing, so almost nobody knows those extra digital channels are out there. It is the same with HD radio. Nobody knows the channels are out there, because they can't hear them on their existing radio. If the technical wizs at iBiquity had come up with a way people could get the extra channels on existing radios, HD radio would, right now, be a totally different scenario - a viable revenue stream for stations and large audiences for formats previously unavailable. But - requiring people to buy a new radio, when radios are afterthoughts and commodity items - was never a viable business plan. Maybe as late as the early 1980's, but the ship sailed. Nobody bought AM stereo radios for stereo talk radio then, and nobody will buy HD radios for HD sports and talk FM now. The music crowd, maybe. But if you can't tell the difference through a 4 inch speaker, and you are unaware of the HD-2 channel, and the radio costs $100 - forget it. Its one turkey that won't fly.
Another thing that killed HD radio is something so simple that I am surprised they didn't think of it - it needed to supplant existing SCA and other services. The sidebands a could have been neatly placed inside the existing channel, and the gain / bandwidth product of the receiver would have produced much more robust reception. But by being afraid to obsolete SCA, RDS, reading for the deaf, etc - all things that can be done better on HD radio anyway - they forced the sidebands outside the channel, where the receiver has trouble amplifying such a large bandwidth with low noise - hence poor HD coverage. It doesn't help that there are stations on first adjacents in a lot of areas - if it is one thing the AM HD debacle has shown - HD sidebands cannot have any interference riding on them, because the receiver can't lock onto them. Forget for a moment all the DX'ers and their concerns - there are plenty of good technical reasons why having the HD sidebands outside the channel was a BAD idea right from the start.
The only way HD is here to stay is intertia. Too many people with too big of egos to admit failure, and willing to plow even more money into the white elephant in the forlorn hope the public will all of the sudden latch onto digital radio as the "next big thing". Ain't gonna happen. You will have a hundred AM stations and 2000 FM stations holding on and holding on, then over the years slowly turning it off one station at a time because the ROI isn't there. There will be hold outs maybe for decades as a few devotees cling to it - just like AM stereo devotees do now. But its over. Walking zombie. The fat lady sang years ago. Those with a lot of money invested are too stubborn to admit defeat.
I like HD radio. I own two tuners. I'd listen to HD-2 - if I could. But HOA's prohibit outdoor antennas in subdivisions, and aggressively fight. HD radio - in its present form - absolutely requires an outdoor antenna. If consumers still cared about audio and were willing to bother putting up outdoor antennas, the HOA's won't let them. Another area where the HD radio people needed to act. Satellite TV got FCC protection, the moment it was clear that there were reception problem the HD alliance should have sprung into action to ward off the HOA's. They didn't. Their approach - exasperate an already bad system by requiring massive power increases and upgrades at stations, trying to pump more and more signal into worse and worse home (and auto and office) antennas. Maybe - narrower bandwidth, combined with compelling HD-2 formats, combined with fighting for the rights of consumers to put up antennas, or a system that didn't require new radios, or at least a system that would work with a cheap adaptor like they had for TV, and the HD experience would have worked. But too much was working against it. HD radio needed the techies and DX'ers - instead they alienated them and marginalized them. They needed compelling formats. They left those to satellite and streaming. They needed a robust system. They introduced one that was too broadband to avoid offending 0.01% of subchannel users. They needed quality receivers, but concentrated instead on the aftermarket car radios. Car radios are so integrated into the car today that strategy was stupid. Nobody wanted to "upgrade" a car radio and lose dash controls, rear seat controls, etc. They wanted car DVDs instead of HD radios. So many little mistakes - so consistently arrogant strategies - and the biggest flop since New Coke, Cue Cats, Microsoft Bob, PC Junior, etc. Market research has everything to do with giving people the solution to a problem they have, or giving them something they want. It has noting to do with the egos of executives and people who want a product to succeed.
And the few remaining HD people wonder why they haven't made any friends.